Under Alert!

I'm getting this one early. One unit on the Phillies / Padres U 7.5 (on Bookmaker)
I'd make it two except I think over/ under bets are a little more unpredictable.

Two lefthanders going tomorrow. Cole Hamels was roughed up last start (like Verlander the start before tonight's gem). Hamels hasn't had back to back bad outings since April 2010. I think adding these great veteran pitchers has made him work harder to fine tune his game. He's competing within the team and has learned from them also.
Don't be fooled by the Padres recent hitting in Florida. The Marlins threw 3 righthanders. The Padres have been shut down by every lefthander in July, except Barry Zito ( who also beat the Padres earlier in the month).
Luebke goes for the Padres. The Phillies have not hit lefthanders that well, except for Polanco and Victorino- though Polanco is on the DL. Their record vs. lefthanded pitching is deceiving because of their great pitching. They have a great record vs. righties too. The last lefthander I think they faced was Niese, who kept them at 2 runs in 7 IP. Luebke stats: Last 4 games (since he has started for SD) 24 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, and 26 Ks. Some of this was against Seattle and Sf, but he also had 6 Ks vs. Boston in 3 innings. He has 3 plus pitches and the Phils haven't seen him very much.
Both teams have great bullpens. Both teams just faced sub-par pitching in previous series. Hamels and Phillies bullpen might get the shutout or yield 1 run.

By tomorrow it'll be at 7.

Also like that it's an NL game, with no DH. Lots of low scoring games lately with lesser pitchers, weaker bullpens. Tomorrow might jump on the H+R+E under total too. What's nice about these games is that if only one pitching staff dominates, and the other is so-so, you can still win.

YTD: 7-5 + 8 units Thursday 1-1, Verlander, Tigers did as expected. Sabathia did also. Unfortunately, Shields was better. As one poster said earlier today, he is very good and is not a fluke.

Sure a lot of replies to my own threads. But look at this: Bronson Arroyo has given up 26 HRs vs. Jair Jurrjen's 5 HRs. In almost the same amount of innings! Let's extrapolate this out to tomorrow's game and the Braves are already ahead 1-0 before the game even starts. Seriously, this is another game with much lower chalk than some other faves. Like it.

One unit on Atlanta (ML -119) That didn't take long. Good article in the Dayton News explaining how almost all the Reds are playing below last year's level. In the past 2 weeks, they have only hit well against a Milwaukee reliever named Estrada and Jake Westbrook. Arroyo is a terrible match for the friendly confines of the Great American Bandbox. He had mono in the spring, vertigo earlier this month, longs for Boston, got paid on a contract extension already and generally seems a little flakier than usual. Jurrjens keeps the ball down, sinks his fastball, and should do fine. The Braves have seen some great pitching this month and have lost their share of games, but when they have faced an average or below pitcher, have hit well. The Braves have a bullpen edge though they have been below their usual standard lately. And 26 Hrs in 115 innings! That's a bomb every 4.4 innings. Atlanta rocked him earlier this year.

BOL today!

A good 2-0 day. Philly game went as expected, and Home Run Derby Part 2 at the Great American Little League Field was won by the Braves, 4 HRs to 3 Hrs. And the score was only 6-4. Lots of solos. How does Bronson Arroyo pitch 6 innings, give up 9 hits, 2 walks, 3 Hrs, and only 4 runs? Either way, it's a win.

YTD: 9-5 +10 units