Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 36 35 1 +11.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 137 159 2 -5.20 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +146 over CHICAGO
2:20 PM EST start. Carlos Zambrano and Bud Norris have virtually pitched the same number of innings this season (117). Both pitchers have walked 46 batters but Norris has struck out 37 more batters than Zambrano has. Norris has allowed just 105 hits in his 117 innings while Zambrano has allowed 118 hits. Not much difference anywhere other than K’s and that’s significant. What’s also significant is the mileage on Zambrano’s arm over the years and that excessive workload has worn him down. Zambrano has been smoked in three of his last five starts. In those three starts he’s surrendered five jacks. His control is getting out of control. Zambrano has walked 20 batters and struck out 25 over his past 33 frames and the result has been an ERA of 7.11 over the past month. We’re seeing signs that Zambrano is once again running strictly on fumes. Norris has a 90+ BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for his development into one of the game's premium young pitchers and his sub-4.00 xERA confirms that his current 3.67 ERA is no fluke. Regardless of the outcome the Astros offer up tremendous value here. Play: Houston +146 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +173 over PHILADELPHIA
Cole Hamels needs no introduction. He was once the Phillies ace but now pitches in the shadows of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and that’s fine by him. Hamels is still one of the best lefties in the business and he’s always tough to beat. Cory Luebke and the Padres may not win this game but this is without doubt the best price on the board given to a pitcher of Luebke’s caliber. Luebke has a sub-3.00 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 69 batters and walked 129 in 63 IP. He has posted a **PQS-4-5-5 (for explanation PQS see bottom of these write-ups) string since joining the Pads rotation and that’s about as near perfect as it gets. Luebke has allowed a sick 36 hits in 63 innings. The kid can pitch so buy the skills. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are very warm with four wins in five games and they’re coming off a sweep of the then red-hot Marlins in Florida. San Diego scored 34 runs in those four wins and they come in here swinging hot bats, with momentum and taking back a tag that is as sweet as it gets. If Heath Bell comes in to save it in the ninth, change the channel and read about it tomorrow. Big overlay. Play: San Diego +173 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +124 over Colorado
First off, Carlos Gonzales out of the Rockies lineup creates a huge hole and one that will have an impact. Secondly, Aaron Cook pitching at this hitter’s park is a whole lot of doubles and runs waiting to happen. In 39 IP, Cook has walked more batters (17) than he’s struck out (14). What makes that even more troublesome is that hitters are making contact with his pitches in the strike zone 96% of the time and you may want to read that last sentence again. Cook has a WHIP of 1.84, a BAA of .346, an ERA of 5.82 with a xERA on the road of 6.29. After facing Zack Geinke last night and scoring four times, the Snakes might score 14 tonight on this pure stiff with a skill set that just might be the worst in baseball. Why is he in the rotation? It’s because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. He’s 0-5 thus far (the Rocks are 0-6 in his last six starts) and when you break that down they’re paying him two million for each loss so far. Daniel Hudson is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 2.80. He has 102 K’s and 30 walks in 134 innings. It's been almost a year since the Diamondbacks acquired Hudson in a trade with the White Sox. Since then, the talented right-hander has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a four games out of first place in the NL West. While he doesn't get the publicity that follows some other top young pitching prospects, Hudson has more than fulfilled the expectations that followed him from Chicago to Arizona last summer and has quietly established himself as one of the most solid starters in the NL West. Play: Arizona –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay
After 10 straight games against the Yanks and Red Sox the Rays are not any closer to either of them after losing six of 10 and now find themselves in a letdown series. The Rays batted .220 over that stretch, which was the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the entire league over the past 10 games. TB’s 93 punch-outs were also tops in the AL over that span. When David Price or James Shields is not pitching, the Rays are as beatable as the Cubbies or any other team in the majors. Wade Davis will return from the DL for this start. Davis will have missed the minimum with a right forearm strain. Prior to his DL stint, Davis had a 4.25 ERA with limited skills support. A low strikeout rate, a brutal BB/K ratio and a 5.08 ERA strongly suggest potential trouble down the line. Davis’s 4.25 ERA is a complete mirage. The Royals lose a lot of games not because they can’t hit but because they can’t pitch. Luke Hochevar’s 5.23 ERA is much higher than his xERA of 4.08. His groundball rate has been trending the right way all season and over the past month that GB rate is up to 55%. Hochevar has been hurt by the big inning but he’s more than capable of throwing a solid game against this anemic line-up. Royals will score tonight, we’re not sure about the Rays. Play: Kansas City +100 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
**In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
Last 30 Days 36 35 1 +11.80 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 137 159 2 -5.20 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +146 over CHICAGO
2:20 PM EST start. Carlos Zambrano and Bud Norris have virtually pitched the same number of innings this season (117). Both pitchers have walked 46 batters but Norris has struck out 37 more batters than Zambrano has. Norris has allowed just 105 hits in his 117 innings while Zambrano has allowed 118 hits. Not much difference anywhere other than K’s and that’s significant. What’s also significant is the mileage on Zambrano’s arm over the years and that excessive workload has worn him down. Zambrano has been smoked in three of his last five starts. In those three starts he’s surrendered five jacks. His control is getting out of control. Zambrano has walked 20 batters and struck out 25 over his past 33 frames and the result has been an ERA of 7.11 over the past month. We’re seeing signs that Zambrano is once again running strictly on fumes. Norris has a 90+ BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for his development into one of the game's premium young pitchers and his sub-4.00 xERA confirms that his current 3.67 ERA is no fluke. Regardless of the outcome the Astros offer up tremendous value here. Play: Houston +146 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +173 over PHILADELPHIA
Cole Hamels needs no introduction. He was once the Phillies ace but now pitches in the shadows of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and that’s fine by him. Hamels is still one of the best lefties in the business and he’s always tough to beat. Cory Luebke and the Padres may not win this game but this is without doubt the best price on the board given to a pitcher of Luebke’s caliber. Luebke has a sub-3.00 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 69 batters and walked 129 in 63 IP. He has posted a **PQS-4-5-5 (for explanation PQS see bottom of these write-ups) string since joining the Pads rotation and that’s about as near perfect as it gets. Luebke has allowed a sick 36 hits in 63 innings. The kid can pitch so buy the skills. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are very warm with four wins in five games and they’re coming off a sweep of the then red-hot Marlins in Florida. San Diego scored 34 runs in those four wins and they come in here swinging hot bats, with momentum and taking back a tag that is as sweet as it gets. If Heath Bell comes in to save it in the ninth, change the channel and read about it tomorrow. Big overlay. Play: San Diego +173 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +124 over Colorado
First off, Carlos Gonzales out of the Rockies lineup creates a huge hole and one that will have an impact. Secondly, Aaron Cook pitching at this hitter’s park is a whole lot of doubles and runs waiting to happen. In 39 IP, Cook has walked more batters (17) than he’s struck out (14). What makes that even more troublesome is that hitters are making contact with his pitches in the strike zone 96% of the time and you may want to read that last sentence again. Cook has a WHIP of 1.84, a BAA of .346, an ERA of 5.82 with a xERA on the road of 6.29. After facing Zack Geinke last night and scoring four times, the Snakes might score 14 tonight on this pure stiff with a skill set that just might be the worst in baseball. Why is he in the rotation? It’s because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. He’s 0-5 thus far (the Rocks are 0-6 in his last six starts) and when you break that down they’re paying him two million for each loss so far. Daniel Hudson is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 2.80. He has 102 K’s and 30 walks in 134 innings. It's been almost a year since the Diamondbacks acquired Hudson in a trade with the White Sox. Since then, the talented right-hander has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a four games out of first place in the NL West. While he doesn't get the publicity that follows some other top young pitching prospects, Hudson has more than fulfilled the expectations that followed him from Chicago to Arizona last summer and has quietly established himself as one of the most solid starters in the NL West. Play: Arizona –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay
After 10 straight games against the Yanks and Red Sox the Rays are not any closer to either of them after losing six of 10 and now find themselves in a letdown series. The Rays batted .220 over that stretch, which was the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the entire league over the past 10 games. TB’s 93 punch-outs were also tops in the AL over that span. When David Price or James Shields is not pitching, the Rays are as beatable as the Cubbies or any other team in the majors. Wade Davis will return from the DL for this start. Davis will have missed the minimum with a right forearm strain. Prior to his DL stint, Davis had a 4.25 ERA with limited skills support. A low strikeout rate, a brutal BB/K ratio and a 5.08 ERA strongly suggest potential trouble down the line. Davis’s 4.25 ERA is a complete mirage. The Royals lose a lot of games not because they can’t hit but because they can’t pitch. Luke Hochevar’s 5.23 ERA is much higher than his xERA of 4.08. His groundball rate has been trending the right way all season and over the past month that GB rate is up to 55%. Hochevar has been hurt by the big inning but he’s more than capable of throwing a solid game against this anemic line-up. Royals will score tonight, we’re not sure about the Rays. Play: Kansas City +100 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
**In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
