Cnotes Friday's Best Bets MLB-CFL-WNBA !

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Atlanta Braves At Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview

Last season, the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds were both bounced early in the NL playoffs. This year, both think that they are contenders for the NL pennant once again, but both have a ton of work to do. The two will begin their weekend series on Friday night at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 (PT), and there will be live TV coverage on Sports South, Fox Sports Ohio, and the MLB Network.

This is the start of a vital 10-game home stand for the Reds. They enter this series at just 48-50, but they are only 4 ½-games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central standings. A solid record at the start of this home stretch might make general manager Walt Jocketty a buyer at the deadline, whereas a questionable start might give him second thoughts.

There's no doubt that the Cincinnati offense is good enough to win it all this year. This is a unit that ranks No. 6 in baseball at 4.59 runs per game. Of late though, the unit has been down, scoring just a total of seven runs in its past five MLB betting battles.

What is clearly needed is better pitching. A 4.06 staff ERA is on No. 21 in the league, and one of the biggest culprits for this problem, Bronson Arroyo, is going to be on the mound on Friday.

Arroyo is 7-8 with a 5.57 ERA. Batters are teeing off on him to the tune of a .295 batting average, and his WHIP of 1.40 is his bordering on his worst mark since joining Cincinnati in 2006.

The Braves are in a heck of a lot better shape right now even though they are trailing the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East chase by 4 ½-games. There really aren't a heck of a lot of serious contenders for the NL Wild Card this season as long as this mess of teams in the NL Central keeps beating each other up, and as a result, Atlanta should be in the postseason one way or the other.

Whereas Cincinnati is going to be looking for arms at the deadline, the Braves need some bats to help out. Chipper Jones is still battling a knee injury and will be out of the lineup until at least Sunday, which isn't making matters any better for a team that is only batting .238.

However, that might not be a tremendous issue on Friday. Manager Fredi Gonzalez gets to deploy his Cy Young Award contender, Jair Jurrjens. For a man that didn't get his season started until April 16, Jurrjens has put up some simply awesome numbers. He is 12-3 with a 2.26 ERA.

Jurrjens is coming off of the worst start he has had all season long. He allowed six runs in five frames against the Washington Nationals at home, but the team bailed him out and managed a 9-8 victory. It was the fifth straight win for the Braves with Jurrjens on the bump.

Against the Reds this year, the righty already has a 'W' to his credit. He threw eight strong innings, allowing just one run for what was his seventh victory of the campaign.

The Reds are only 3-7 in Arroyo's last 10 starts at the Great American Ballpark. Meanwhile, the Braves are 18-8 in their last 26 games and have already taken two out of three against Cincinnati this year.

Early afternoon thunderstorms will hopefully give way to good conditions in the Queen City. Expect muggy conditions with temperatures in the high-80s and a heat index approaching triple digits while the sun is out.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Cole Hamels, Phillies Host San Diego Padres

The Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their first home game since before the All-Star break when they host the San Diego Padres on Friday in the opener of a three-game series. Game time is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT).

The Phillies just completed a successful six-game road trip at 4-2 and have won two of three games in eight straight series since dropping two of three at Seattle a little more than a month ago.

Philadelphia still has the most wins of any team in baseball with 61, but only eight of them have come against teams from the National League West. The Phillies are 8-4 against NL West opponents, including a four-game sweep at San Diego three months ago. They have won seven consecutive meetings dating back to last season – all on the road – and the teams split four games at Citizens Bank Park a year ago.

Philly’s Cole Hamels will pitch against the Padres for the second time this year after blanking them back on April 22 in a 2-0 victory. Hamels (11-5, 2.71 ERA) is a San Diego native and threw eight shutout innings against his hometown team, allowing just four hits with three walks and eight strikeouts.

He is 5-2 lifetime against the Padres with a 2.42 ERA in 10 starts.

Hamels is coming off his worst start of the year though, as he was rocked in an 11-2 road loss to the New York Mets on Saturday. The southpaw surrendered a season-high seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings with four walks and three strikeouts.

That is the only one of 20 starts in which he had more walks than strikeouts, and he has been favored in 19 of them. The ‘over’ has cashed in each of his last three starts.

Fellow lefty Cory Luebke (3-3, 2.57) will toe the rubber for San Diego and try to win for the second time in as many starts. The converted reliever has started just four games for the Padres this season, but he has been nearly unhittable since making the transition.

Luebke is 2-1 as a starter with a sensational 1.50 ERA, walking four batters and striking out 26 in 24 innings of work. Hitters have a .148 batting average against him, going 12-for-81. He is also 1-2 on the road with a 1.82 ERA and a .135 BAA.

Two of his three wins have come as an underdog, and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in his starts this year.

The heat wave rolling through the East Coast is expected to peak on Friday with a high temperature of 103 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4

July 21, 2011

The Edmonton Eskimos remained undefeated on the year after knocking off British Columbia 33-17 last Saturday as 2 1/2-point home favorites. The 3-0 start is a dramatic turnaround from last season’s 7-11 campaign. Montreal also remained undefeated with a 40-17 pasting of East Division rival Toronto as a 10 1/2-point home favorite last Friday. The two other games from Week 3 saw Calgary squeeze by Winnipeg 21-20 last Thursday night as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and Hamilton pounded Saskatchewan 33-3 at home as a two-point ‘chalk’ last Saturday.
The following is brief preview of this week’s CFL games along with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.

Friday, July 22

Hamilton Tiger Cats at British Columbia Lions (-3) Over/Under (49 1/2)

Hamilton’s win last week helped move its record to 1-2 both straight up and against the spread, while BC remained winless this season at 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS). The Tiger Cats took the first of two games last season 35-31 as 3 1/2-point road underdogs, but the Lions closed out the 2010 regular season with a 23-21 victory as four-point road favorites. The total went ‘over’ in the first battle but stayed ‘under’ the 52-point line in Game 2.

The Tiger Cats are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games of this series overall and 4-1 ATS in the last five on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ the last two games at Empire Field, but has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the last 14 meetings overall. BC quarterback Travis Lulay is off to a solid start, completing 66 of 125 attempts for 958 yards and five touchdowns.

Saturday, July 23

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-3 1/2) Over/Under (46 1/2)

Winnipeg is now 2-1 SU, but a perfect 3-0 ATS. Toronto is 1-2 both SU and ATS after its 23-point loss to Montreal. The Blue Bombers opened the 2011 season with a 22-16 victory over the Argonauts as one-point home favorites. The game stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 47. This was Winnipeg’s first SU win over Toronto in the last four meetings.

The series is tied at five games apiece both SU and ATS in the last 10 and knotted at 2-2 both SU and ATS in the last four from Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in these four games at the Rogers Center and in 11 of the past 12 meetings overall. Winnipeg RB Fred Reid is currently second in the CFL in rushing with 237 yards on 52 carries.

Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-3 1/2) Over/Under (52 1/2)

Undefeated Edmonton is also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season, while Calgary is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. Last season the Eskimos lost all three games against the Stampeders both SU and ATS and were outscored 144-40. Each of the games went ‘over’ the total.

The three-game sweep in 2010 extended Calgary’s winning streak over Edmonton to seven games (6-1 ATS). The Stampeders have not lost to the Eskimos at home since being beat 37-16 in 2008 as 4 1/2-point favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of the last 16 meetings, but has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five games played at McMahon Stadium. Edmonton slotback Fred Stamps is the CFL’s leading receiver with 17 catches for 316 yards.

Sunday, July 24

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11 1/2) Over/Under (56)

Saskatchewan has had its hands full with Montreal recently, including a 39-25 loss to the Alouettes as a 3 1/2-point home underdog on opening day. The Roughriders are in desperate need of a win after starting the season 0-3 both SU and ATS. Montreal, winners of the last two Grey Cups, has outscored its opponents 109-68 in its first three games.

The Roughriders have sunk to 1-7 SU against Montreal in the last eight encounters but are a respectable 5-3 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five meetings and in 12 of the last 16 played at Stade Percival-Molson Stadium. Perennial All-Star quarterback Anthony Calvillo is off to another great start for the Alouettes; completing 80 of 166 attempts for a league-high 1,038 passing yards and 10 touchdowns.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Weekly Betting Recap

July 17, 2011

Week 3

Home teams went 3-1
Favorites went 4-0 straight up
Favorites went 3-1 against the spread
The ‘under’ went 3-1

Notes: Winnipeg was outscored 11-0 in the fourth quarter during Week 3’s collapse to Calgary, 21-20. Including this setback, all three of the Blue Bombers’ games have gone ‘under.’

Overall Season Results

Home teams are 6-6
Favorites are 8-4 straight up
Favorites are 6-6 against the spread
The ‘under’ is 7-5

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Diamond Trends - Friday

July 22, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Giants are 11-0 since April 26, 2010 after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1205.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Red Sox are 10-0-1 OU since May 03, 2010 as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cubs are 11-0-1 OU since July 02, 2006 when Carlos Zambrano starts at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Athletics are 1-16 (-2.3 rpg) since May 30, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Yankees are 0-4 since June 18, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $620 when playing against.

The Nationals are 5-0 since May 28, 2010 when John Lannan starts as a road dog when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $850.

The Braves are 8-0 OU since May 28, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Around the Horn - Friday

July 21, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Houston at Chicago - 2:20 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Norris (5-6, 3.59 ERA) 3-7 L10 4-12 away during day
Zambrano (6-5, 4.78 ERA) 3-7 L10 3-6 L9 on Fridays

Astros beat Nationals, 3-2 on Wednesday
Cubs lost to Phillies, 9-1 on Wednesday

San Diego at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Luebke (3-3, 2.57 ERA) 4-1 L5 1-6 away on Fridays
Hamels (11-5, 2.71 ERA) 6-3 L9 8-3 L11 home off win

Padres beat Marlins, 5-3 on Thursday
Phillies beat Cubs, 9-1 on Wednesday

St. Louis at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Carpenter (5-7, 3.69 ERA) 4-7 L11 7-4 L11 away vs LHP
Maholm (6-9, 3.06 ERA) 6-3 L9 OVER 6-2 L8 home off loss

Cardinals beat Mets, 6-2 on Thursday
Pirates lost to Reds, 3-1 on Wednesday

N.Y. Mets at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pelfrey (5-9, 4.67 ERA) 3-6 L9 OVER 5-2 away on Fridays
Volstad (5-8, 5.59 ERA) 7-4 L11 3-9 L12 home Game 1's

Mets lost to Cardinals, 6-2 on Thursday
Marlins lost to Padres, 5-3 on Thursday

Atlanta at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Jurrjens (12-3, 2.26 ERA) 5-5 L10 6-2 L8 away Game 1's
Arroyo (7-8, 5.57 ERA) 4-6 L10 1-6 L7 home off win

Braves beat Rockies, 9-6 on Thursday
Reds beat Pirates, 3-1 on Wednesday

Colorado at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cook (0-5, 5.82 ERA) 6-4 L10 2-5 away on Fridays
Hudson (10-5, 3.56 ERA) 5-5 L10 UNDER 8-4 L12 vs division

Rockies lost to Braves, 9-6 on Thursday
Diamondbacks beat Brewers, 4-0 on Friday

Washington at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lannan (6-6, 3.62 ERA) 3-7 L10 5-2 away on Fridays
Kuroda (6-11, 3.13 ERA) 6-4 L10 0-5 L5 home vs LHP

Nationals lost to Astros, 3-2 on Wednesday
Dodgers beat Giants, 1-0 on Wednesday

Milwaukee at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Marcum (8-3, 3.39 ERA) 4-2 L6 2-5 away on Fridays
Cain (8-5, 2.99 ERA) 7-2 L9 6-2 home on Fridays

Brewers lost to Diamondbacks, 4-0 on Thursday
Giants lost to Dodgers, 1-0 on Wednesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chicago at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Floyd (7-9, 4.37 ERA) 4-6 L10 4-10 L14 away vs division
Carrasco (8-7, 4.25 ERA) 4-6 L10 8-2 L10 home vs division

White Sox lost to Royals, 2-1 on Wednesday
Indians lost to Twins, 7-5 on Wednesday

Oakland at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cahill (8-8, 3.16 ERA) 4-2 L6 1-7 L8 away off win
Hughes (1-2, 8.44 ERA) 4-2 L6 1-5 home on Fridays

Athletics beat Tigers, 7-5 on Wednesday
Yankees lost to Rays, 2-1 on Thursday

Los Angeles at Baltimore - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Santana (4-8, 3.84 ERA) 6-4 L10 UNDER 5-2 L7 on Fridays
Simon (2-2, 4.36 ERA) 3-7 L10 20-12 home vs non-division

Angels beat Rangers, 1-0 on Thursday
Orioles lost to Red Sox, 4-0 on Wednesday

Seattle at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hernandez (8-8, 3.26 ERA) 0-12 L12 2-5 L7 away Game 1's
Lackey (7-8, 6.70 ERA) 8-2 L10 OVER 7-0-1 home on Fridays

Mariners lost to Blue Jays, 7-5 on Thursday
Red Sox beat Orioles, 4-0 on Wednesday

Toronto at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Reyes (5-7, 4.94 ERA) 7-2 L9 6-3 L9 away off win
Lewis (9-7, 4.07 ERA) 12-2 L14 6-2 home on Fridays

Blue Jays beat Mariners, 7-5 on Thursday
Rangers lost to Angels, 1-0 on Thursday

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Davis (7-6, 4.25 ERA) 3-6 L9 8-4 L12 away vs RHP
Hochevar (5-8, 5.23 ERA) 4-6 L10 4-10 L14 home vs RHP

Rays beat Yankees, 2-1 on Thursday
Royals beat White Sox, 2-1 on Wednesday

Detroit at Minnesota - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Scherzer (10-5, 4.53 ERA) 7-4 L11 11-4 away vs LHP
Duensing (7-7, 4.14 ERA) 6-4 L10 7-3 L10 home Game 2's

Tigers beat Twins, 6-2 on Thursday

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB Series Outlook: Boston at Seattle

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-55, -11.8 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (59-37, +6.6 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -220, Seattle +170

Since climbing back to .500 on July 5, the Mariners have gone on to lose 12 straight, all but ending any postseason thoughts. And it’s all happening just in time for Friday’s start of a three-game set in Boston, where the Red Sox have compiled the second-best road record in the American League.

While the reward on a Boston bet is small, betting the money line on Seattle makes even less sense. They’ve scored just 27 runs during their 12-game losing streak, hitting .208 along the way. Boston, on the other hand, has won 10 of 12 and scored 78 runs during that span. Even if they get a gem from Felix Hernandez on Friday, it’s highly unlikely the M’s will be able to outscore the Sox on Saturday or Sunday. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated trend siding with BOSTON to win the series.

SEATTLE is 0-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better this season. The average score was SEATTLE 2.6, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 22 - 7:10 ET
Friday line: Boston -140, Seattle +130, Total: 8.5
SEA: 11-10 (-1.70 Units) when Felix Hernandez starts
BOS: 7-8 (-4.00 Units) when John Lackey starts
This is a great opportunity for Seattle to break its losing streak, though Hernandez (8-8, 3.26 ERA) hasn’t been his usual dominant self this year. Seattle has dropped three of his past four starts, as Hernandez has a middling 3.56 ERA during that span. He had a no-decision in Boston in May, allowing two runs and fanning 10 over seven innings in a Mariners loss. He’s had a lot of success at Fenway Park though. In five career starts in Boston, Hernandez is 3-0 with a 1.49 ERA, as Seattle won four of those games.
After a promising outing against Baltimore right before the All-Star break (6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K), the disastrous 2011 season picked back up for Lackey (7-8, 6.70 ERA). He got the win in Tampa on Saturday, but he allowed four runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings. He pitched well in a loss to Seattle back in April, holding them to two runs over six innings. He’s pitched very well against the Mariners since signing with the Red Sox last year: a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings over three starts.

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 - 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
SEA: 1-2 (-0.85 Units) when Blake Beavan starts
BOS: 13-5 (+7.10 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
Beavan (1-1, 2.70 ERA) has gotten off to a pretty good start in his big league career, registering quality starts in each of his first three MLB appearances. He hasn’t exactly been dominant though, striking out just eight in 20 innings. Considering his mediocre numbers in Triple-A Tacoma (5-3, 4.45 ERA in 16 starts), he may not fare well in one of his toughest tests so far.
Beckett (8-3. 2.12 ERA) continues his Cy Young campaign, throwing eight innings of shutout, one-hit ball in Tampa on Sunday. He’s been nearly unhittable at home this year, going 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA as Boston has won six of his seven home starts. Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, he’s dominated the Mariners: 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA against Seattle, and Boston has won all six of his starts against the M’s.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
SEA: 9-10 (-1.85 Units) when Michael Pineda starts
BOS: 8-4 (+2.85 Units) when Tim Wakefield starts
Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) has hit a bit of a rookie wall, posting a 6.46 ERA over his past four starts. He’s still striking out hitters (25 K in 23.2 innings during that span), but his control has been off (11 walks) and he’s given up four homers in those four games. This will be his first career start against Boston, so he might have an edge against a team seeing him for the first time.
Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been nothing to write home about, especially of late. Since June 1, he has a 5.29 ERA. His ERA in three July starts is 5.82, but the Sox have won all three of those games thanks to some monster offense. He’s just 4-10 career as a starter against the Mariners, but did hold them to one run over 5.2 innings in a Sox victory in May.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB Series Outlook: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (47-51, -8.2 Units)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (51-46, +9.9 Units)

Sportsbook.com Series Line: Cleveland -140, Chicago +110

With the Indians only one win back from the lead in the AL Central, this divisional showdown with the White Sox will be crucial in how the rest of the season shakes out. A strong showing could propel the Tribe to make an aggressive deadline move, such as trading for Mets OF Carlos Beltran, while if they start to slip, such an approach may prove imprudent. The White Sox are on the fringe of contention and if they could take all three games would all of a sudden be in the conversation, and everybody knows how their GM Kenny Williams can be – undeterred in trade talks.

Although both teams enter this series cold -- Cleveland has lost four of six, Chicago has dropped three of four -- the pick here is for CLEVELAND to win the series. The Indians win 60% at home this year and have favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games. The key for them will be the second start of the season from southpaw David Huff on Saturday, who pitched spectacularly his first time out, while the White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League (85) against left-handed pitching.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends supporting the Indians.

CHICAGO is 20-34 (37.0%, -18.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO 3.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*).

CLEVELAND is 24-14 (63.2%, +12.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Friday, July 22 – 7:05 EDT
Friday line: Chicago -105, Cleveland -105, Total: 8.5
CHW: 7-11 (-5.90 Units) when Gavin Floyd starts
CLE: 9-9 (+1.17 Units) when Carlos Carrasco starts
The good news for Floyd (7-9, 4.37 ERA) is that after getting shelled two starts back, to the tune of seven earned runs in 3.2 innings he rebounded with giving up just one earned run to the Tigers in 7.2 innings of work his last time out. He held the Indians to one run in his one outing against them this season on May 19, and his strong showing against a potent Tigers lineup, in addition to his favorable matchup against Carrasco makes him the play here.
After a dazzling month of June in which Carrasco (8-7, 4.25 ERA) posted a 1.90 ERA, he hasn’t been able to find that form in July. He’s lasted just a total of 14 innings in his past three starts, allowing 14 earned runs (22 hits, 4 HR) in that span. The White Sox notched seven earned runs off of him in his only game against them this year, and is a high-risk play until he can improve his control (4.5 BB/9 in his past three starts).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 – 7:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
CHW: 7-11 (-5.10 Units) when Edwin Jackson starts
CLE: 1-0 (+1.30 Units) when David Huff starts
Jackson (6-7, 3.97 ERA) is coming off his best start of the season last time out, throwing a complete-game shutout. One of the major encouraging factors about his recent performance has been his ability to pitch deep into games – he’s gone six innings or longer in eight consecutive starts. If the White Sox can muster up some run support against the lefty Huff, he would be a decent play. Unfortunately that’s no given as Chicago has scored one run or fewer in six of Jackson’s starts this year.
Huff (1-0, 0.00 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings his last time out, his only appearance in the majors thus far in 2011. Last year he was 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 15 starts. In his career he has struggled against the White Sox (8.04 ERA, 1.85 WHIP in two starts), but this should be a favorable matchup for him. The White Sox are 25th in MLB with a .239 batting average against lefties (and 27th in slugging, .349), something that should relax the southpaw making his second start of the year.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
CHW: 9-8 (+1.60 Units) when Philip Humber starts
CLE: 11-9 (+1.50 Units) when Justin Masterson starts
Humber (8-6, 3.27 ERA) struggled in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just nine innings, while allowing a whopping 18 hits in that span. He’s still had success notching strikeouts and limiting walks (10:2 K:BB), so he’s been sticking to the formula that has led him to success all year; he’s not as bad of a play as his recent stats indicate. He’ll be making his first career start versus the Indians.
Masterson (8-6, 2.64 ERA) has been Cleveland’s best starter this year and has only been getting better. Over his past three starts, he has a 1.66 ERA in 21.2 innings with an amazing 6.7 K-to-BB ratio (20 K, 3 BB). That, in addition to his success against the White Sox this season – two earned runs in 15 innings – makes him the play for this game.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Friday’s betting tips: Rockies' CarGo hurt again

Who’s hot

MLB: San Francisco has won seven of its last nine.

MLB: The over is 12-4 in Baltimore's last 16 games overall.

CFL: The over is 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between Hamilton and B.C.

Who’s not

MLB: Cincinnati is 3-7 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 home starts.

MLB: Oakland has won only three of its last 16 visits to Yankee Stadium.

CFL: Hamilton has covered in four of its last five games against B.C.

Key stat

1.7 – The Pittsburgh Pirates headed into Thursday’s action atop the NL Central with a 51-45 record, but according to Accuscore.com, they have just a 1.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants - Sandoval was forced out of Wednesday's game with a sore right triceps, but after an off day on Thursday, the team hopes he will be ready to return to the lineup Friday in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Game of the day

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-120, 6.5)

Notable quotable

“I know the (Hamilton) defense inside out. I pretty much know the offensive scheme,” Dennis said. “I’ll leak all of that to my new team. I’ll let everybody know anything we need to do to win. I’ll sit down with the players and coaches and share my knowledge. Individually, I’ve already gone to Geroy (Simon) and told him how he can beat his man.” – B.C. Lions DB Jerome Dennis on giving his new team an advantage when they go up against his old team, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, on Friday. Dennis was released by Hamilton earlier this week. The Lions are set as a 3-point home favorite.

Notes and tips

Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez left Thursday’s game in the middle of an at-bat in the fifth inning with an apparent wrist injury and was taken to hospital for X-rays. Now there is some concern that he could be headed for the disabled list. CarGo already missed a few games with a wrist injury, but he thought it had healed. Gonzalez is hitting .288 with 15 homers and 56 RBIs.

David Wright is expected to return to the New York Mets’ lineup Friday for the first time since he landed on the DL with a stress fracture in his back on May 16. Wright was hitting just .226 with six homers at the time of his injury but was hitting .476 at Class A St. Lucie during his rehab stint without any discomfort.

David Ortiz is eligible to play Friday against Seattle after serving his three-game suspension for his part in an altercation with Baltimore’s Kevin Gregg on July 8. Boston is set as a -135 favorite and about 68 percent of *********** Consensus bettors are backing the BoSox.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

Friday's six-pack

-- NFL owners voted 31-0 to pass their own agreement; Raiders opted not to vote, because they never agree with everyone else in the league. When Oakland won, Al Davis was quirky; now he's just strange.

-- NFL cancelled the Bears-Rams Hall of Fame game in Canton that was scheduled for August 7. Too bad-- I was there in 2001. Its a great night out in a town that needs an infusion of cash for its economy.

-- Wild Card races look to be almost over already; baseball better hope there are a couple interesting divisional races in September.

-- Syracuse is hosting Manhattan, Albany and Brown in preseason NIT November 14-16. Best part of those two nights will be Albany-Brown game and the Manhattan vs Albany-Brown loser the second night. Lets face it, Boeheim could show up drunk and Syracuse gets two wins.

-- Lawrence Frank is rumored to be next coach of the Pistons; no word on when he might actually have a league to coach in.

-- CBS Sports Network is running games from NCAA tourney all this week; nothing better than to do some summer studying on hoops.

********************

Friday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind....

13) Someone gave me an old 1989 college basketball preview magazine today; one of the guys on the cover is a Pitt point guard named Sean Miller, now the coach at Arizona. Time sure flies……..

12) The five kids on the pre-season All-American team were all seniors; any kid who lasts four years in college now is seen as more of a suspect rather than a prospect.

11) Familiar names in the 1988 statistical leaders: Hersey Hawkins led the nation in scoring (36.3 ppg), Steve Kerr was 2nd in country in 3-point %age (57.3%), Avery Johnson led the nation in assists (13.3/game), Will Perdue was 8th in nation in field goal %age (63.4%).

10) Dallas Maverick JJ Barea is hooked up with the 2006 Miss Universe; the couple is having a baby in March. Its good to be an NBA player.

9) Steve Williams has been on the bag for 144 Tour titles; 63 with Eldrick Woods, obviously 81 with other golfers, including Greg Norman. You could make the argument that he’s the greatest caddy ever.

8) This is the actual description of a movie on IMDB.com: Mansquito: “A scientist turns herself into a mutant insect while trying to find a cure for the West Nile virus.” It cost approximately $5M to make this gem of a film. People who OKd financing for this one are probably same idiots who told the Mets to go hard after Jason Bay.

7) If you ever read an ESPN personality complimenting someone else’s work, there’s roughly a 98% chance the other person works for ESPN, too. Its almost like they’re encouraged to pump up their “teammates”. Costs them some credibility though, if they always praise but never criticize.

6) Obscure stat from espn.com that shows how the NFL has ripped off fans for years; each week of the preseason is worth $200M in revenue to the league. Meaningless exhibition games should cost next-to-nothing to attend, but that’s coming from someone (me) with zero business sense.

5) Greedy bastard update: Gas went up 10 cents a gallon while I was away; it is $2.95 a gallon at the station closest to my house. In Las Vegas, gas is $2.42 a gallon. I'm running out of reasons to live in New York.

4) Cleveland Indians take a hit as oft-injured Grady Sizemore is out 4-6 weeks after hernia surgery. Tribe is hanging in contention in a weak AL Central, despite starting more than a couple sub-standard major league players.

3) UNLV signed DaQuan Cook, a 6-1 guard from Baltimore. He’s going to be a long way from home, but Baltimore kids are generally tough and the Rebels could use some guards who penetrate with the ball.

2) If I was a Colts’ fan, I’d be really, really concerned about Peyton Manning’s neck; they wouldn’t win four games without him. He's had a couple of surgeries on his neck in recent years. That not good.

1) If I never hear DeMaurice Smith say another word, it’ll be too soon. Please go away. Today.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

CFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Hamilton at BC
The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record. Hamilton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 22

Game 491-492: Hamilton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.592; BC 112.765
Dunkel Line: BC by 2; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2); Over

SATURDAY, JULY 23

Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/19)
Game 493-494: Winnipeg at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 113.339; Toronto 111.037
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Toronto 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+3); Under

Game 495-496: Edmonton at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.077; Calgary 116.233
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Over

SUNDAY, JULY 24

Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 101.486; Montreal 122.316
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 21; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 11 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11 1/2); Under

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Friday, July 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMILTON (1 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 3) - 7/22/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 52 over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (2 - 1) at TORONTO (1 - 2) - 7/23/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (3 - 0) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/23/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 7-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, July 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 3) at MONTREAL (3 - 0) - 7/24/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 99-60 ATS (+33.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 85-54 ATS (+25.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 22

10:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Hamilton is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing British Columbia
Hamilton is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
British Columbia is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Hamilton

Saturday, July 23

4:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 13 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Calgary13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games at home

Sunday, July 24

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 4 odds and picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hamilton Tiger Cats at B.C. Lions (-3, 50)

For a second straight week, Hamilton meets a team looking for its first win of the season. The Tiger-Cats did dominate the Roughriders last week, winning 33-3, but that victory doesn’t convince me.

On the other end, the Lions are much better than their 0-3 straight up record indicates. They have played good football against the Alouettes and the Stampeders, two teams that could very well make it to the big show in November.

The Tiger-Cats will be ending a tough road trip in the west and could be worn out by the time they suit up in British Columbia. That said, Avon Cobourne, who still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, could very well take advantage of the Lions' poor run defense but I doubt it will be enough.

The Lions will get rid of their demons after having a poor 1-4 record ATS in their last five home games in Vancouver.

Pick: Lions

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-3.5, 46)

The absence of Cory Boyd will be felt and the Bombers' defense should also prevail against the powerless Argos offense.

Toronto head coach Jim Barker is about to lose patience with QB Cleo Lemon.

“Now he must show up and lead this team” Baker told reporters. “Is there a sense of urgency? Sure. We expect him to play better and at a higher level.”

The Bombers won the first showdown of this series earlier and another win would give them a two-game lead on their East Division rivals. The health of QB Buck Pierce must worry the Bombers fans but this is a game where the two worst offenses in the CFL are facing each other. Toronto averages 309.7 yards per game against 292.7 for the Bombers.

If Pierce is in the game, Winnipeg will take the win and if he's not the Bombers are still a solid bet.

Pick: Blue Bombers

Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-3.5, 55)

Believe it or not, the Eskimos are still unbeaten but the Stampeders are always tough to beat at home and their record against the Eskimos last season was impressive.

Plus, the Stampeders are a better team than they've shown so far. Henry Burris still hasn't played a game where he fully displays his talent and that should be soon. The Eskimos are 1-4 ATS record in their last five visits to Calgary, while the Stamps have covered the spread in six of their seven last games against the Eskimos.

Pick: Stampeders

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11.5, 56)

The Roughriders are not the team that fought valiantly against the Alouettes in the last two Grey Cups anymore. Meanwhile, the Alouettes have a receiving corps that is probably the best in the CFL and we won’t even mention the fact they will be playing on their home turf.

The Alouettes have scored 30 points or more in each of their first three games. The Roughriders looked foolish against the Tiger Cats last week but will be coming to Montreal with lots of motivation. It won’t be a blowout but the Alouettes should still cover the number.

Pick: Alouettes

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

CFL
Write-Up

Friday, July 22

Hamilton (1-2) @ BC Lions (0-3)-- Road team won both series games in 2010, with two games decided by total of six points. Desperate times in Vancouver, where Lions are giving up 130 rushing yards/game, awful lot for the CFL. Lions' first two losses were by 4-2 points before their loss in Edmonton last week. TiCats got first win very easily last week, with four takeaways and a 23-0 halftime lead. Hamilton lost its only road tilt so far 28-10 in Edmonton.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB
Dunkel

LA Angels at Baltimore
The Angels are coming off a 1-0 win over Texas and look to build on their 5-1 record in Ervin Santana's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. LA is the pick (-120) acccording to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 22

Game 901-902: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.343; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.306
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.403; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.943
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 905-906: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Luebke) 16.394; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.245
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.641; Florida (Volstad) 14.864
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110);

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.155; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.051
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 911-912: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.393; Arizona (Hudson) 15.102
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Over

Game 913-914: Washington at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.557; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 13.844
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over

Game 915-916: Milwaukee at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.429; San Francisco (Cain) 15.651
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.428; Baltimore (Simon) 14.020
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.284; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.994
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.035; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.665
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 13.675; Boston (Lackey) 16.453
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over

Game 925-926: Toronto at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Reyes) 15.995; Texas (Lewis) 17.193
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Over

Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.243; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.178
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 929-930: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.472; Minnesota (Duensing) 14.223
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB
Write-Up

Friday, July 22

Hot pitchers
-- Pirates won Maholm's last five home starts (4-0, 1.41). Cardinals won last five Carpenter starts (4-0, 1.89).
-- Luebke is 2-1, 1.50 in four starts this season. Hamels is 6-2, 1.75 in his last ten home starts.
-- Braves won last five Jurrjens starts (4-0, 2.59).
-- Arizona won DHudson's last eight home starts.
-- Cain is 2-1, 2.03 in his last six starts.

-- Santana is 1-0, 2.79 in his last four starts.
-- Cahill has a 2.91 RA in his last three starts, but no wins.
-- Lackey is 2-0, 3.09 in his last couple starts. FHernandez has a 2.78 RA in his last three outings, but no wins.
-- Lewis is 4-0, 2.57 in his last six starts.
-- Davis is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
-- Duensing is 3-0, 2.96 in his last four starts. Scherzer has a 1.84 RA in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Zambrano is 1-3, 7.16 in his last six starts. Norris is 1-1, 4.94 in his last four outings.
-- Pelfrey is 1-4, 4.88 in his last five starts. Volstad has a 9.69 RA in his last three starts; Marlins lost five of his last six home starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 8.25 in his last four starts.
-- Colorado lost Cook's last six starts (0-5, 6.15).
-- Kuroda is 1-8, 4.89 in his last ten starts. Lannan is 1-1, 4.57 in his last four outings.
-- Marcum is 1-1, 5.40 in his last five starts.

-- Simon is 1-1, 3.86 in two starts (11.2 IP).
-- Hughes is 0-1, 10.80 in two home starts this season.
-- Carrasco is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts. Floyd is 1-4, 5.64 in his last six starts.
-- Reyes has an 8.52 RA in his last five starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-1, 6.51 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Last four Norris starts went over the total.
-- Last four Maholm starts went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Philly home games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Volstad starts went over the total.
-- Five of Jurrjens' last six road starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven DHudson home starts stayed under the total. Four of Cook's last five starts went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Dodger home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Marcum's last six starts.

-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Santana starts.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Hughes starts this season.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Carrasco's last eight starts.
-- Over is 13-3-2 in last 18 games at Fenway Park.
-- Eight of nine Lewis home starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Davis starts went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Scherzer's last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.
-- Phillies won 13 of their last 16 home games. Padres won their last three games, outscoring Florida 23-6.
-- Braves won 14 of their last 19 games. Cincinnati won three of its last four home games.
-- Dodgers won last four home games, allowing one run.
-- Giants won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Bronx won 13 of its last 16 home games. A's won three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Texas won its last seven home games, scoring 53 runs. Toronto won eight of its last ten games.
-- Minnesota won 14 of its last 21 games. Tigers won three of four.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost nine of their last eleven road games. Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Florida lost its last three games, outscored 23-6. Mets lost six of their last nine games.
-- Colorado is 6-10 in its last sixteen games. Arizona is 5-7 in its last twelve home games.
-- Nationals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last thirteen road games.

-- Angels lost four of their last five road games. Baltimore lost seven of its last ten home games.
-- Cleveland lost its last three home games, allowing 23 runs. White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Seattle lost its last twelve games in a row, outscored 41-18 in its seven games since the All-Star break.
-- Kansas City is 7-14 in its last 21 home games. Tampa Bay is just 7-10 in its last seventeen games.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB

Friday, July 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHI CUBS
Houston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Houston

7:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY YANKEES
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Oakland's last 25 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. BALTIMORE
LA Angels are 17-7 SU in their last 24 games
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games at home

7:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing San Diego

7:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games

7:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

7:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. BOSTON
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 15 games on the road
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Boston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of NY Mets's last 14 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Florida's last 10 games when playing at home against NY Mets
Florida is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against NY Mets

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. CINCINNATI
Atlanta is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Atlanta is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:05 PM
TORONTO vs. TEXAS
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

8:10 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Detroit

9:40 PM
COLORADO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 11 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Colorado's last 21 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Colorado

10:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. LA DODGERS
Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games at home

10:15 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB

Friday, July 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday’s streaking and slumping starting pitchers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STREAKING

Cory Luebke (3-3, 2.57 ERA), San Diego Padres

This 26-year-old lefty is making the most of his chance in the Padres rotation. The second-year hurler started the season in San Diego’s bullpen but got bumped up to the five-man starting rotation at the end of June.

He’s 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and opponents are hitting just .148 as a starter. Oh yeah, and he has 26 strikeouts against four walks in 24 innings of work since getting dropped in the rotation.

Brian Duensing (7-7, 4.14 ERA), Minnesota Twins

Here’s another southpaw helping his club win games recently. Duensing is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in July and the Twins are 3-1 his last four trips to the mound.

The 28-year-old hurler is never a high price, so you’re going to get a good deal backing him most of the time. The under is also 4-1 in Duensing last five outings.

SLUMPING

Bronson Arroyo (7-8, 5.57 ERA), Cincinnati Reds

Oh boy. It’s just a season to forget for Bronson. Maybe he should fall back on his music career. Nope, just remembered, he sucks at that too.

Don’t let Cincy’s recent record in Arroyo’s starts fool you (4-2 in last six); this guy is tossing beach balls at the plate. The veteran right-hander is carrying a 8.25 ERA over his last four appearances.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB

Friday, July 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Top 7: Best clutch pitchers in baseball
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The term "clutch hitter" has been part of the baseball lexicon forever. It refers to those players who always seem to come through with the big base hit at the most important moment of a game.

Yet you never hear anyone talk about "clutch pitchers." Part of the reason is that there is no pitching statistic equivalent to the RBI for hitters.
However, the website fangraphs.com has a stat called Clutch for pitchers. It is determined by using an advanced metric called win probability added (WPA).

While a solo home run in the fourth inning of a blowout game counts the same in the stat column as a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth. WPA is able to differentiate the importance of each plate appearance by how players affect their team's win expectancy on a play-by-play basis. Tom Tango gives a better understanding of the concept with his win expectancy charts.

Clutch measures how well a player performs in high-leverage situation by comparing his WPA and his WPA/LI, which stands for win probability added/divided by leverage index, a number which rises in relationship to the more pressurized situation a hitter or pitcher faces.

Let's look at the top seven Clutch starting pitchers in the major leagues, those with Clutch scores of 1.00 or more, and see if we can detect any positive betting trends:

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays, +1.50 units

Clutch: 1.29

Shields is known as Big Game James in part because he has pitched in so many key matchups during the Rays' rise to prominence over the last four seasons. Of course, every professional athlete named James since NBA Hall of Famer James Worthy seems to have been dubbed Big Game.

The Rays are 12-8 in Shields' starts this season, which belies his outstanding 2.60 ERA in 148 2/3 innings. The under is 13-6-1 in those games.
Shields has held hitters to a .210 batting average both with runners on base and with runners in scoring position, .194 from the seventh inning on, and they are just 1-for-7 with the bases loaded. Then again, Shields is tough in non-pressure situations as opponents are batting .213 with the bases empty.

Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox, -0.53 units

Clutch: 1.15

The talented but inconsistent Jackson has been the source of frustration for many as he is pitching for his fifth major-league team despite being just 27. This has been another baffling year.

The White Sox are just 7-11 in his starts despite a 3.97 ERA and Clutch saying he is tough to hit when it matters. Nine of his starts have gone over and nine have gone under.

Jackson's opponents average against is just .202 with runners in scoring position and .237 with runners on base. But he seems to lack focus until the situations get tough as opponents are hitting .395 when leading off innings.

Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres, +4.33 units

Clutch: 1.17

Pitching for the offensively challenged Padres can't be easy and it hasn't been for Stauffer, whose record is just 6-6 despite pitching much better than his .500 record indicates.

The Padres are 11-9 in his 20 starts and the under is 11-8-1, not surprising in light of his 2.83 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Stauffer, in his first full major-league season as a starter, has held hitters to a .173 average with runners in scoring position and .233 with runners on base. He also has not allowed a hit in nine bases-loaded at-bats.

Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins, -1.60 units

Clutch: 1.14

Sanchez has electric stuff as evidenced by throwing a no-hitter as a rookie in 2006 and taking one into the ninth inning earlier this season. Yet the Marlins are just 11-10 in his starts and the under is 10-8-3, though he has a 6-3 record with a whopping 12 no-decisions.

Opponents are hitting .248 with runners in scoring position against Sanchez, .240 with runners on base and .245 with the bases empty. Run support is what Sanchez really needs. The Marlins have scored two for fewer runs in seven of his starts already this season.

Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners +0.01 units

Clutch: 1.13

Vargas has started 20 games this season and the Mariners have won just nine. However, that is more a reflection of the Mariners' historically bad offense than Vargas' pitching.

Vargas has been particularly tough when he works deep into games, holding opponents to a .203 batting average in the seventh inning or later. He is just 6-8, though he has a fine 1.24 WHIP and a solid 3.94 ERA.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros, -0.53 units

Clutch: 1.11

The Astros are just 8-9 in Rodriguez's starts and the left-hander has just a 6-6 record but that comes as part and parcel for pitching for the team with the worst record in baseball. The under is a good bet anytime Rodriguez takes the money as that side is 11-5-1 when he toes the slab.

Rodriguez has been at his best in difficult situations, holding opponents to a .208 average with runners in scoring position. He hasn’t allowed a hit in seven at-bats with runners in scoring position. His 3.67 ERA also suggests he should be more than a .500 pitcher.

Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins, +1.89 units

Clutch: 1.10

The Twins are trying to rally all the way back from a 16 1/2-game deficit in the American League Central and they've cut it to five. More clutch pitching from Blackburn would might help them achieve the near-impossible feat as he has a .232 opponents average against with runners in scoring position.

The Twins are 11-10 in Blackburn's starts and the over is 11-9-1 in those games. Personally, Blackburn is 7-6 with a 3.87 ERA.

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB

Friday, July 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Friday’s best MLB bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-105, 8.5)

You think the Cleveland Indians are in search of some help in the outfield? With Grady Sizemore out more than a month following sports hernia surgery and Shin-Soo Choo on the shelf until September with a broken thumb, things are getting desperate in Cleveland.

To make matters worse, Michael Brantley and Travis Buck also missed time this week, leaving the Tribe with an outfield that consisted of Luis Valbuena, rookie Ezequiel Carrera and Austin Kearns on Wednesday. Yikes.

"How can you substitute the absence of Choo and Grady Sizemore? I don't think that's a secret,” Indians manager Manny Acta said about the team’s search for outfield help. “We know that from top to bottom and we're working on it. But people need to understand, too, that it takes two to tango.

"You can have all the Christmas lists and wishes and all that, but you need to have somebody that you can engage with."

Until then, they’re stuck with what they have – which isn’t much.

Pick: White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (-105, 8.5)

The Kansas City Royals were fun to watch early this season. They’re a team that’s really trying to build on a young nucleus and after being the AL Central’s perennial whipping boy for years, it was cool to see them get out to a 10-4 start.

Of course, that didn’t last and they’re right back where they belong – in last place of the division.

The clubhouse is probably a little tense these days too after Wilson Betemit was shipped to Detroit and more moves rumored to be on the way.

Luke Hochevar gets the call for the Royals Friday and though he was great in his last outing, allowing just one run over seven innings in a win over Minnesota, we’re not sold on him yet. Before that start he gave up 11 runs over eight combined innings in two starts.

Plus, Wade Davis just keeps getting it done for the Rays, leading the club to wins in three of his last four starts.

Love the Rays at this price.

Pick: Rays

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, July 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (33 - 65) at CHICAGO CUBS (39 - 60) - 2:20 PM
BUD NORRIS (R) vs. CARLOS ZAMBRANO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 33-65 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 31-64 (-28.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 19-50 (-27.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 9-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 9-34 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-69 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 60-59 (+12.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-60 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 22-31 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 126-151 (-46.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 12-24 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 17-29 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-60 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 29-43 (-12.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-66 (-30.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 169-146 (-45.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
ZAMBRANO is 72-67 (-30.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ZAMBRANO is 37-37 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
ZAMBRANO is 72-67 (-30.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-2 (+3.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

BUD NORRIS vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
NORRIS is 1-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

CARLOS ZAMBRANO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
ZAMBRANO is 14-8 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.73 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 19-12 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-22. (-16.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (51 - 47) at PITTSBURGH (51 - 45) - 7:05 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. PAUL MAHOLM (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 137-123 (-24.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 61-73 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 58-55 (-24.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 134-120 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 40-41 (-16.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 68-66 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 15-28 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 51-45 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 65-63 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 24-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 49-44 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 34-28 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 26-18 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 291-310 (+38.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MAHOLM is 23-16 (+14.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 28-15 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 (+2.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
CARPENTER is 11-2 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 0.954.
His team's record is 14-2 (+10.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-11. (-8.0 units)

PAUL MAHOLM vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
MAHOLM is 4-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.420.
His team's record is 7-6 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-5. (+1.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (44 - 55) at PHILADELPHIA (61 - 36) - 7:05 PM
CORY LUEBKE (L) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-40 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 164-104 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 117-69 (+22.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 134-128 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 11-6 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 69-62 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 132-127 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 31-25 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.1 Units)

CORY LUEBKE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.

COLE HAMELS vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HAMELS is 5-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 0.866.
His team's record is 6-4 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY METS (49 - 49) at FLORIDA (47 - 52) - 7:10 PM
MIKE PELFREY (R) vs. CHRIS VOLSTAD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PELFREY is 21-42 (-26.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
FLORIDA is 471-433 (+50.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.
NY METS are 49-49 (+5.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 12-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
NY METS are 27-23 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY METS are 49-49 (+5.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 20-16 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY METS are 21-17 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 67-61 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 21-29 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
FLORIDA is 6-12 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
FLORIDA is 21-29 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
FLORIDA is 17-23 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
FLORIDA is 15-21 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
FLORIDA is 9-17 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
VOLSTAD is 11-20 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 3-2 (+0.5 Units) against NY METS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

MIKE PELFREY vs. FLORIDA since 1997
PELFREY is 1-7 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.607.
His team's record is 3-11 (-10.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-8. (-2.7 units)

CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. NY METS since 1997
VOLSTAD is 1-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (58 - 41) at CINCINNATI (48 - 50) - 7:10 PM
JAIR JURRJENS (R) vs. BRONSON ARROYO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 98-94 (-29.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 16-29 (-17.5 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 58-41 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 58-41 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 107-72 (+17.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
JURRJENS is 19-6 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 46-49 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 17-30 (-17.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ARROYO is 3-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+0.4 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

JAIR JURRJENS vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
JURRJENS is 1-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.464.
His team's record is 1-4 (-5.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ARROYO is 6-3 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.74 and a WHIP of 1.710.
His team's record is 8-5 (+6.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-5. (+2.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (47 - 52) at ARIZONA (53 - 46) - 9:40 PM
AARON COOK (R) vs. DANIEL HUDSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 47-52 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 52-76 (-28.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 17-21 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
COLORADO is 47-52 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 84-90 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 30-41 (-21.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 12-30 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 53-47 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 53-47 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 40-32 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 38-32 (+8.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HUDSON is 22-11 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 22-11 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 598-524 (-70.3 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 40-56 (-18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 6-3 (+5.3 Units) against COLORADO this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.4 Units)

AARON COOK vs. ARIZONA since 1997
COOK is 5-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.22 and a WHIP of 1.533.
His team's record is 6-14 (-9.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-6. (+6.7 units)

DANIEL HUDSON vs. COLORADO since 1997
HUDSON is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.077.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (48 - 50) at LA DODGERS (43 - 55) - 10:10 PM
JOHN LANNAN (L) vs. HIROKI KURODA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 7-26 (-18.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-20 (-16.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-50 (+4.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-50 (+4.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 32-29 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LANNAN is 26-19 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LANNAN is 26-19 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LANNAN is 18-13 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 43-55 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 43-55 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 28-39 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 18-22 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 21-29 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
KURODA is 3-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOHN LANNAN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LANNAN is 2-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.158.
His team's record is 2-1 (+2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

HIROKI KURODA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KURODA is 1-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.769.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (53 - 47) at SAN FRANCISCO (57 - 42) - 10:15 PM
SHAUN MARCUM (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 20-33 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-33 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-42 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 76-48 (+20.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 84-51 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 51-27 (+15.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-42 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-22 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 114-89 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 (+6.8 Units) against the money line after getting shut out this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-47 (+17.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 79-65 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 41-26 (+18.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CAIN is 55-34 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CAIN is 33-12 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CAIN is 55-33 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CAIN is 27-13 (+12.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 25-18 (+8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-1 (+0.8 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

SHAUN MARCUM vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MARCUM is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.545.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

MATT CAIN vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
CAIN is 2-4 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 2-4 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.8 units)

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2011

LA ANGELS (53 - 46) at BALTIMORE (39 - 56) - 7:05 PM
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. ALFREDO SIMON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 87-95 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 61-70 (-19.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 35-18 (+14.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 111-104 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 501-490 (+67.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 47-41 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 79-49 (+27.4 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 62-43 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 39-57 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 33-54 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 24-42 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 18-37 (-17.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 13-38 (-24.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ERVIN SANTANA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SANTANA is 3-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.411.
His team's record is 5-5 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-5. (-1.7 units)

ALFREDO SIMON vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (43 - 55) at NY YANKEES (57 - 39) - 7:05 PM
TREVOR CAHILL (R) vs. PHIL HUGHES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 43-55 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 17-33 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 16-36 (-18.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 42-53 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 25-36 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 28-41 (-16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 46-19 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CAHILL is 21-7 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CAHILL is 30-20 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 29-34 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 3-0 (+3.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

TREVOR CAHILL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
CAHILL is 0-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 9.72 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.7 units)

PHIL HUGHES vs. OAKLAND since 1997
HUGHES is 2-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 0.973.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (47 - 51) at CLEVELAND (51 - 46) - 7:05 PM
GAVIN FLOYD (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 20-30 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 11-19 (-11.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
FLOYD is 20-29 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLOYD is 7-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLOYD is 5-18 (-14.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
FLOYD is 4-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLOYD is 19-27 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 52-46 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 27-18 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 49-43 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 39-29 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 39-31 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 69-64 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 24-20 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 58-48 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 15-9 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 4-1 (+2.8 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

GAVIN FLOYD vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
FLOYD is 5-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.452.
His team's record is 5-4 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.7 units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
CARRASCO is 0-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.350.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (43 - 55) at BOSTON (59 - 37) - 7:10 PM
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JOHN LACKEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 43-55 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 10-23 (-12.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 45-83 (-29.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 102-146 (-43.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 77-104 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-20 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
SEATTLE is 5-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
SEATTLE is 16-27 (-11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SEATTLE is 17-41 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 41-18 (+17.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 (+2.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. BOSTON since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 4-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.197.
His team's record is 6-3 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.2 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. SEATTLE since 1997
LACKEY is 13-10 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.316.
His team's record is 17-11 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-13. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (50 - 49) at TEXAS (56 - 43) - 8:05 PM
JO-JO REYES (L) vs. COLBY LEWIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 50-49 (+2.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 65-68 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 25-23 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TORONTO is 36-24 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 108-94 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 71-71 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 (+3.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JO-JO REYES vs. TEXAS since 1997
REYES is 0-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 0.93 and a WHIP of 1.551.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. TORONTO since 1997
LEWIS is 2-4 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 9.35 and a WHIP of 1.808.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (52 - 45) at KANSAS CITY (40 - 58) - 8:10 PM
WADE DAVIS (R) vs. LUKE HOCHEVAR (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 28-20 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 25-18 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TAMPA BAY is 17-10 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-11 (+20.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DAVIS is 9-1 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 114-174 (-40.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

WADE DAVIS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
DAVIS is 1-0 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.786.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

LUKE HOCHEVAR vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HOCHEVAR is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 10.00 and a WHIP of 1.944.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (52 - 46) at MINNESOTA (46 - 52) - 8:10 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. BRIAN DUENSING (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 28-33 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 36-59 (-21.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 43-60 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SCHERZER is 4-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 140-123 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-15 (+8.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 134-113 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DUENSING is 16-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
DUENSING is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-0 (+6.1 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.0 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
SCHERZER is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 9.13 and a WHIP of 1.563.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

BRIAN DUENSING vs. DETROIT since 1997
DUENSING is 1-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.96 and a WHIP of 1.620.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.2 units)