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Milwaukee Brewers At San Francisco Giants MLB Odds Preview

National League rivals meet at AT&T Park in San Francisco on Saturday night in MLB betting action, as the Giants play host to the Milwaukee Brewers. These teams are postseason contenders, and both are hoping to get a leg up on the other in what could be a playoff preview down the line.

The first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 (PT) in the Golden State, and live television coverage can be found on the MLB Network, Comcast Sports Bay Area and FOX Sports North.

This is going to be a tough test for the Brew Crew. They're not a great road team as it is, having gone just 20-33 outside of Miller Park entering Fridays series opener. Thanks to that horrendous record on the MLB odds, Milwaukee is down 12.72 units on the campaign.

To make matters worse, the Brewers are going against one of the better home teams in the game. MLB bettors have loved backing the Giants at AT&T Park this season, as they are 30-17 and up 8.47 units.

As we've already mentioned, both teams are right in the thick of divisional races and both are probably looking to better themselves by next week's MLB trade deadline. Milwaukee enters this series tied atop the NL Central standings with the Pittsburgh Pirates, while the Giants are 4-games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West.

Ryan Vogelsong was nothing more than a cast-off entering the 2011 season. He was just a 10-22 pitcher with a career ERA in the 5.00s, and many thought that San Francisco was crazy for even giving him a shot to pitch at the MLB level. Little did anyone know that he would turn into a star in a hurry.

Vogelsong is 7-1 this year in his 17 appearances, and has a 2.02 ERA. Batters are only hitting .229 against him, nearly 50 points lower than his career average at the outset of the season, and his WHIP is just 1.19.

It's not like Milwaukee hasn't gotten plenty of looks at Vogelsong from his days with the Pirates, though. The righty is only 1-3 with a lofty 6.98 ERA in his 29 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers.

Vogelsong only has two outings this season with more than two earned runs allowed, and he hasn't conceded more than two runs in a home start this year. He is 4-1 with an amazing 1.08 ERA in his 58 1/3 innings at AT&T Park.

Needless to say, Randy Wolf has his work cut out for him. Wolf is historically a rock-solid pitcher with over 2,000 innings under his belt. He is only 6-7 this year, but his 3.58 ERA suggests that he is getting unlucky.

Wolf has had a great career against the Giants, going 9-5 with a 2.77 ERA. He pitched against them at home on May 28, allowing just one earned run in 7 1/3-innings of work.

Just like Vogelsong, Wolf is a tough cookie to knock around hard. He has only allowed more than four earned runs once since May 11.

The Brewers are just 2-6 in Wolf's last eight starts on the road, but the offense clearly hasn't given him that much help. The 'under' is 17-5 in his last 22 outings as the guest.

'Under' bettors are 13-7 with Wolf pitching and 11-4 with Vogelsong on the hill this season. To add to this, the 'under' has cashed at a 9-4 clip in the last 13 meetings between the Giants and Brewers, including two out of three in the May series.

Mother Nature should be giving us a great evening for baseball in the Bay Area. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with 10-15 mph winds out of the West.

Colorado Rockies Collide With Collmenter, D-Backs

The Arizona Diamondbacks entered this series as the only team in the National League West trailing the San Francisco Giants by a single-digit margin in the standings. The club hopes to keep that distinction in hosting the Colorado Rockies Saturday night at Chase Field with the first pitch scheduled for 5:10 (PT).

Colorado is in trouble and may need to place one of its rising stars on the 15-day disabled list. Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez left Thursday’s 9-6 home loss to the Braves after re-injuring his right wrist. He was instrumental in leading the team to its previous two victories, including a walk-off single Wednesday night.

The Rockies will now play nine games on the road against divisional opponents, entering this series with a losing 17-21 in such contests. In fact, Colorado has compiled a losing 88-95 record versus NL West foes over the last three campaigns.

Jason Hammel (5-9, 4.36) has fallen into quite a pattern heading into his 20th start of the season, as the club has alternated wins and losses in his last seven outings. The right-hander was handed a 7-4 home defeat against the Braves last time out, giving up six runs (four earned) and eight hits in five frames.

The 28-year-old has tallied an even 2-2 mark and 3.40 ERA in eight road efforts, surrendering just three home runs in 50 1/3 innings.

In eight career appearances (six starts) versus the Diamondbacks, Hammel has posted a winning 3-2 record and 2.95 ERA, including a perfect 2-0 mark and 1.47 ERA in four lifetime outings (two starts) at Chase Field. Despite those strong numbers against Arizona, bettors must be wary of the Rockies dropping his last six efforts within the division.

Arizona moved its record to seven games above .500 with a 4-0 shutout victory over the Milwaukee Brewers to capture a four-game split at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are 4-3 to open the second-half of the season and in the midst of playing 18 of 22 games within the NL West.

Rookie Josh Collmenter (5-5, 2.65 ERA) is currently the scheduled starter for this contest and comes in off a dominating win at home versus the Brewers. He tossed eight shutout innings and scattered three hits while striking out seven and not issuing a single walk.

The right-hander has made two lifetime appearances versus the Rockies, including a disastrous start at Coors Field on May 24. He was lifted in the fifth inning and gave up five runs on five hits, including two home runs in a 12-4 defeat.

Collmenter may receive a break if Gonzalez is not in the lineup, as he’s 2-for-3 with a home run against him.

Total players will find that the ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in the desert, including two of the first three meetings at tonight’s venue.

Expect the roof to be closed at Chase Field for the entire weekend, as temperatures in the Phoenix area are expected to be in the triple-digits throughout.

Edmonton Eskimos Trek To Calgary As Underdogs

The CFL’s Edmonton Eskimos hope to continue their surprising strong start when they visit the Calgary Stampeders on Saturday night. This is a Western Division matchup and a battle of Alberta.

The Don Best odds screen has Edmonton as 3 ½-point road underdogs with a total of 55 points.

TSN in Canada will have the kickoff from McMahon Stadium beginning at 4:00 p.m. (PT). Weather is expected to be clear and around 60 degrees.

The Eskimos have been proving their critics wrong all year at 3-0 straight up and against the spread. They finished out of the playoffs last year at 7-11 SU (7-11 ATS) and were thought to be heading backwards under first-year coach Kavis Reed.

Reed and his team’s latest win was 33-17 at home over British Columbia last Saturday. Quarterback Ricky Ray threw for 320 yards and he’s second in the league in passing yards (1,002) behind famed Montreal signal caller Anthony Calvillo (1,038).

The 31-year-old veteran Ray is in his ninth season with Edmonton, but coming off a 2010 season with just 3,565 passing yards, 11 TDs and 16 interceptions. He’s gotten more help from the o-line this year and has been much more careful with the ball (six TDS, no picks).

Fred Stamps leads the CFL in receiving yards (316), with help from Adarius Bowman (226) and Jason Barnes (216). The offense is scoring 34.4 PPG, which has taken pressure off a rebuilding defense, a league-worst in points (30.3 PPG) and yards (388.2 YPG) last season.

The defense has thrived so far, tied for the second-fewest points allowed (18.3 PPG). That’s helped the ‘under’ go 2-1 with every total in the 50s. However, the one ‘over’ was the only road game, a 42-28 opening week win at Saskatchewan.

The Eskimos have been criticized for their easy schedule as Saskatchewan, Hamilton and British Columbia are a combined 1-8. They need to prove they can beat a good team on the road and that’s why they’re the underdog.

The Stampeders won the Grey Cup in 2008, but were beaten by Saskatchewan in the Division Finals the last two years. They were upset last season (20-16) as 7 ½-point home favorites.

Calgary (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) was also shocked in its season opener against Toronto, 23-21 as 8-point home favorites. It has since rebounded with road wins at British Columbia (34-32) and Winnipeg (21-20), failing to ‘cover’ the latter as 3 ½-point chalk.

Quarterback Henry Burris is a 36-year-old who has averaged 4,956 yards passing the last three years. He’s at 258 YPG this year, which translates to 4,644 yards over 18 regular season games. His four passing TDs versus four picks are also below his standards.

Calgary’s defense was expected to have some early problems due to player turnover. It’s allowing a mediocre 25 PPG and the ‘under’ is 2-1 with the offense at 25.3 PPG. The ‘over’ ended last season at 11-2.

Cornerback is a big issue after losing both Brandon Browner and Dwight Anderson. The team did allow 279 passing yards to British Columbia’s Travis Lulay, but hasn’t been bad overall. Slowing down will be a big challenge.

Calgary went 3-0 SU and ATS against Edmonton last year with gigantic home wins of 56-15 and 52-5. The ‘over’ went 3-0.

The Eskimos are 1-4 ATS overall in their last five visits to Calgary. This would be a great time to prove they’re for real after such embarrassing performances last year.

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4

July 21, 2011


The Edmonton Eskimos remained undefeated on the year after knocking off British Columbia 33-17 last Saturday as 2 1/2-point home favorites. The 3-0 start is a dramatic turnaround from last season’s 7-11 campaign. Montreal also remained undefeated with a 40-17 pasting of East Division rival Toronto as a 10 1/2-point home favorite last Friday. The two other games from Week 3 saw Calgary squeeze by Winnipeg 21-20 last Thursday night as a 3 1/2-point road favorite and Hamilton pounded Saskatchewan 33-3 at home as a two-point ‘chalk’ last Saturday.
The following is brief preview of this week’s CFL games along with the opening point-spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by BetOnline.com.


Saturday, July 23

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-3 1/2) Over/Under (46 1/2)

Winnipeg is now 2-1 SU, but a perfect 3-0 ATS. Toronto is 1-2 both SU and ATS after its 23-point loss to Montreal. The Blue Bombers opened the 2011 season with a 22-16 victory over the Argonauts as one-point home favorites. The game stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 47. This was Winnipeg’s first SU win over Toronto in the last four meetings.

The series is tied at five games apiece both SU and ATS in the last 10 and knotted at 2-2 both SU and ATS in the last four from Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in these four games at the Rogers Center and in 11 of the past 12 meetings overall. Winnipeg RB Fred Reid is currently second in the CFL in rushing with 237 yards on 52 carries.

Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-3 1/2) Over/Under (52 1/2)

Undefeated Edmonton is also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season, while Calgary is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. Last season the Eskimos lost all three games against the Stampeders both SU and ATS and were outscored 144-40. Each of the games went ‘over’ the total.

The three-game sweep in 2010 extended Calgary’s winning streak over Edmonton to seven games (6-1 ATS). The Stampeders have not lost to the Eskimos at home since being beat 37-16 in 2008 as 4 1/2-point favorites. The total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of the last 16 meetings, but has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five games played at McMahon Stadium. Edmonton slotback Fred Stamps is the CFL’s leading receiver with 17 catches for 316 yards.

Sunday, July 24

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11 1/2) Over/Under (56)

Saskatchewan has had its hands full with Montreal recently, including a 39-25 loss to the Alouettes as a 3 1/2-point home underdog on opening day. The Roughriders are in desperate need of a win after starting the season 0-3 both SU and ATS. Montreal, winners of the last two Grey Cups, has outscored its opponents 109-68 in its first three games.

The Roughriders have sunk to 1-7 SU against Montreal in the last eight encounters but are a respectable 5-3 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five meetings and in 12 of the last 16 played at Stade Percival-Molson Stadium. Perennial All-Star quarterback Anthony Calvillo is off to another great start for the Alouettes; completing 80 of 166 attempts for a league-high 1,038 passing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Around the Horn - Saturday

July 22, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Houston at Chicago - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Rodriguez (6-6, 3.67 ERA) 3-8 L11 2-8 L10 away Game 2's
Wells (1-3, 6.71 ERA) 4-7 L11 UNDER 6-1 L7 home Game 2's

Cubs beat Astros, 4-2 on Friday

Atlanta at Cincinnati - 4:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lowe (6-7, 4.37 ERA) 5-5 L10 8-3 L11 away during day
Bailey (4-4, 3.74 ERA) 4-7 L11 UNDER 5-1 L6 home during day

Braves beat Reds, 6-4 on Friday

San Diego at Philadelphia - 4:10 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Latos (5-10, 4.02 ERA) 4-6 L10 UNDER 4-0 L4 away on Saturdays
Kendrick (5-4, 3.34 ERA) 7-3 L10 5-2 home on Saturdays

Phillies beat Padres, 3-1 on Friday

St. Louis at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Garcia (9-4, 3.11 ERA) 5-5 L10 1-6 L7 away vs RHP
Correia (11-7, 4.04 ERA) 6-4 L10 UNDER 8-1 L9 home vs LHP

Cardinals beat Pirates, 6-4 on Friday

N.Y. Mets at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Capuano (8-9, 4.16 ERA) 4-6 L10 4-1 L5 away Game 2's
Hensley (1-2, 2.70 ERA) 7-4 L11 4-2 L6 home vs LHP

Mets beat Marlins, 7-6 on Friday

Colorado at Arizona - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hammel (5-9, 4.36 ERA) 6-4 L10 UNDER 9-4 away Game 2's
Collmenter (5-5, 2.65 ERA) 5-5 L10 8-3 L11 on Saturdays

Colorado beat Arizona 8 - 4 on Friday


Milwaukee at San Francisco - 9:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Wolf (6-7, 3.58 ERA) 4-1 L5 10-1 L11 on Saturdays
Vogelsong (7-1, 2.02 ERA) 7-2 L9 10-3 home vs LHP


Milwaukee beat SF 4 - 2 on Friday


Washington at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Gorzelanny (2-6, 4.07 ERA) 3-7 L10 3-9 away vs LHP
Lilly (6-10, 4.83 ERA) 6-4 L10 4-12 on Saturdays

Washington beat LA 7 - 2 on Friday


AMERICAN LEAGUE


Oakland at N.Y. Yankees - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Harden (1-1, 5.00 ERA) 4-2 L6 0-6 L6 away during day
Burnett (8-7, 4.19 ERA) 4-1 L5 16-1 home during day

Yankees beat Athletics, 17-7 on Friday

Detroit at Minnesota - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Penny (7-6, 4.47 ERA) 6-4 L10 OVER 6-0 L6 away Game 3's
Baker (7-5, 3.01 ERA) 6-3 L9 7-3 L10 home off loss

Tigers beat Twins, 6-2 on Thursday
Tigers beat Twins, 8-2 on Friday

Chicago at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Jackson (6-7, 3.97 ERA) 4-6 L10 UNDER 6-0 L6 away off win
Huff (1-0, 0.00 ERA) 4-6 L10 2-5 L7 home Game 2's

White Sox beat Indians, 3-0 on Friday

Los Angeles at Baltimore - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pineiro (5-4, 4.58 ERA) 7-3 L10 4-1 L5 on Saturdays
Bergesen (1-6, 5.76 ERA) 3-8 L11 1-4 L5 home Game 2's

Angels beat Orioles, 6-1 on Friday

Seattle at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Beavan (1-1, 2.70 ERA) 0-13 L13 UNDER 10-1 L11 away Game 2's
Beckett (8-3, 2.12 ERA) 8-2 L10 7-3 L10 on Saturdays

Red Sox beat Mariners, 7-4 on Friday

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Niemann (4-4, 3.94 ERA) 2-7 L9 OVER 5-1 L6 on Saturdays
Francis (3-11, 4.62 ERA) 5-5 L10 2-7 L9 on Saturdays

Royals beat Rays, 10-4 on Friday

Toronto at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Villanueva (5-2, 3.31 ERA) 7-3 L10 OVER 5-2 L7 away vs LHP
Harrison (8-7, 2.91 ERA) 13-2 L15 8-2 L10 home vs RHP

Rangers beat Blue Jays, 12-2 on Friday

TOP TRENDS for Saturday: ALL SPORTS

Arena(407) NEW ORLEANS @ (408) ORLANDO | 07/23/2011 - 7:30 PM
Play ONORLANDO using the money line in All games against conference opponentsThe record is 15 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+18.00 units)


MLB(967) OAKLAND @ (968) NY YANKEES | 07/23/2011 - 1:05 PM
Play ONNY YANKEES using the money line in All games in day gamesThe record is 28 Wins and 5 Losses this season (+22.00 units)


Arena(407) NEW ORLEANS @ (408) ORLANDO | 07/23/2011 - 7:30 PM
Play ONORLANDO using the money line in All games against conference opponentsThe record is 15 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.00 units)


MLB(977) TAMPA BAY @ (978) KANSAS CITY | 07/23/2011 - 7:10 PM
Play ONTAMPA BAY using the money line in Road games when playing against a team with a losing recordThe record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses this season (+16.65 units)


CFL(493) WINNIPEG @ (494) TORONTO | 07/23/2011 - 4:00 PM
Play UNDERWINNIPEG on the total in All games in road lined gamesThe record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.00 units)


MLB(969) DETROIT @ (970) MINNESOTA | 07/23/2011 - 4:10 PM
Play ONMINNESOTA using the money line in All games as a home favorite of -125 to -150The record is 33 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+23.55 units)


CFL(495) EDMONTON @ (496) CALGARY | 07/23/2011 - 7:00 PM
Play AGAINSTEDMONTON using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up winsThe record is 24 Wins and 38 Losses since 1996 (-42.10 units)


MLB(977) TAMPA BAY @ (978) KANSAS CITY | 07/23/2011 - 7:10 PM
Play ONTAMPA BAY using the run line in Road games when playing against a team with a losing recordThe record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses this season (+17.25 units)


MLB(967) OAKLAND @ (968) NY YANKEES | 07/23/2011 - 1:05 PM
Play ONNY YANKEES using the run line in Home games in day gamesThe record is 41 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (+27.90 units)


Arena(417) ARIZONA @ (418) DALLAS | 07/23/2011 - 8:30 PM
Play AGAINSTDALLAS using the money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days restThe record is 8 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-19.95 units)

MLB Series Outlook: Milwaukee at San Francisco

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (53-47, +1.9 Units)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (57-42, +10.3 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: San Francisco -150, Milwaukee +120

Both atop their respective divisions, this will be a particularly big series for the Brewers who are percentage points behind the Pirates for the NL Central lead. However, Milwaukee will be without center fielder Carlos Gomez, who injured his collarbone Wednesday and was placed on the DL. Both teams are rumored suitors of Mets OF Carlos Beltran, something that could be affected by how the teams fare in this series.

Play on SAN FRANCISCO to win this series. The Giants have two starters with sub-3.00 ERAs pitching, and the Brewers will sorely miss Gomez in spacious AT&T Park. Gomez is a superb defender who covers immense ground, as evidenced by his massive 23.2 UZR/150 this season. This should help the Giants bats in putting together rallies and scoring off the mediocre Brewers pitching.

The FoxSheets show this telling trend favoring the Giants.

SAN FRANCISCO is 73-43 (62.9%, +28.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 – 9:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
MIL: 10-10 (+1.05 Units) when Randy Wolf starts
SF: 10-5 (+5.20 Units) when Ryan Vogelsong starts
Wolf (6-7, 3.58 ERA) tossed well his last time out, giving up just two earned runs in 7.1 innings, but he needs to focus on finding the strike zone if he wants to win. The Giants, who only hit .246 against lefties, will take advantage of any inaccurate tendencies. In Wolf’s past four starts, he has walked 12 while only striking out 12.
Vogelsong (4-4, 3.74 ERA) is another part of that sub-3.00 triumvirate that the Giants have. Although he’s walked 10 batters in his past three starts, he escaped with a 1.77 ERA in that span. He hasn’t faced the Brewers since 2006, but it’s tough to bet against one of the best pitchers in the NL this year who carries a 1.08 ERA at home this year.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 4:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
MIL: 12-9 (+0.95 Units) when Yovani Gallardo starts
SF: 9-11 (-2.85 Units) when Madison Bumgarner starts
Gallardo (11-6, 3.96 ERA) has been pretty good this season, but far better at home. Away from Milwaukee he has a 4.69 ERA compared to 3.23 at home, something that makes him a sketchy play here. The Brewers lineup also struggles with lefties, so he isn’t bound to get a ton of run support.
Bumgarner isn’t quite as impressive as Cain or Vogelsong, but the former top prospect in baseball draws a favorable matchup here. The Brewers, who live and die with the bat, are 23rd in baseball with a .242 average against lefties, and .291 OBP on the road (.351 OBP at home). Also, despite his 4.05 ERA in his past three starts, Bumgarner has been doing the right things to win, with 17 strikeouts and only one walk in that span.

MLB Series Outlook: Oakland at N.Y. Yankees

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (43-55, -16.7 Units)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (57-39, +5.8 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: New York -250, Oakland +190

In a lopsided matchup, the powerhouse Yankees take on the tied-for-last A’s who will be clear sellers at the deadline. New York, on the other hand, is always a buyer, and at just two games back of the Red Sox for the AL East lead, will certainly look to make a pre-deadline push for the top.

The Yankees have dominated AL West opponents this year with a 72% winning percentage (13-5) against them, and have also flourished in the favorite role, winning 61 percent of the time (47-30). The Bombers are 30-19 at home (61%) and are a ridiculous 28-5 in day games (85%), and this series features two games under the sun. The A’s are also dreadful on the road, one of baseball’s worst teams, with a 17-33 mark (34%) away from Oakland and 5-12 (29%) against AL East opponents. Play NEW YORK to win the series.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends that back up the Yankees pick.

N.Y. YANKEES are 52-18 (74.3%, +24.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was N.Y. YANKEES 5.6, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*).

OAKLAND is 12-31 (27.9%, -18.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 3.1, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 – 1:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
OAK: 2-1 (+1.00 Units) when Rich Harden starts
NYY: 10-10 (-3.75 Units) when A.J. Burnett starts
Since missing the first three months of the season with a strained right shoulder, Harden (1-1, 5.00 ERA) has tossed two quality starts in three times out. He finally started to look like himself his last time out, striking out nine batters in seven innings. He has only made one start against New York since 2007 (on April 18, 2010), and it wasn’t a good one: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 5 K.
The talented but flaky Burnett is an enigma, but tends to pitch well against the A’s. He gave up just two runs in seven innings against them earlier this season in a win, and is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in four starts in a Yankees uniform. Burnett is also 5-1 (3.86 ERA) in day games, so this game could be lower scoring than the oddsmakers may anticipate.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
OAK: 10-9 (+0.05 Units) when Gio Gonzalez starts
NYY: 8-6 (-0.05 Units) when Bartolo Colon starts
Gonzalez (9-6, 2.33 ERA) is in the middle of an extremely strong season, with eight straight starts of allowing three earned runs or less (2.10 ERA). But prior to this streak, he was hit hard by the Yankees (6.1 IP, 4 ER) and has a 6.33 career ERA against them. There’s a clear reason for that: the Yankees kill lefties. In the three seasons Gonzalez has faced New York, the Bombers have crushed southpaw pitching (.845 OPS in 2009, .790 OPS in 2010 and .813 OPS this year).
Colon (6-6, 3.34 ERA) needed to show something to doubters in his last start after he was absolutely battered by the Blue Jays two starts ago, allowing eight runs without making it out of the first inning. Although he lost, he threw very well against the Rays, allowing just one earned in over 6.1 innings and fanning nine batters. Play him against the lefty who the Yankees should hit hard.

MLB Series Outlook: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (47-51, -8.2 Units)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (51-46, +9.9 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Cleveland -140, Chicago +110

With the Indians only one win back from the lead in the AL Central, this divisional showdown with the White Sox will be crucial in how the rest of the season shakes out. A strong showing could propel the Tribe to make an aggressive deadline move, such as trading for Mets OF Carlos Beltran, while if they start to slip, such an approach may prove imprudent. The White Sox are on the fringe of contention and if they could take all three games would all of a sudden be in the conversation, and everybody knows how their GM Kenny Williams can be – undeterred in trade talks.

Although both teams enter this series cold -- Cleveland has lost four of six, Chicago has dropped three of four -- the pick here is for CLEVELAND to win the series. The Indians win 60% at home this year and have favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games. The key for them will be the second start of the season from southpaw David Huff on Saturday, who pitched spectacularly his first time out, while the White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League (85) against left-handed pitching.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of trends supporting the Indians.

CHICAGO is 20-34 (37.0%, -18.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO 3.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*).

CLEVELAND is 24-14 (63.2%, +12.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 – 7:05 EDT
Saturday line: TBD
CHW: 7-11 (-5.10 Units) when Edwin Jackson starts
CLE: 1-0 (+1.30 Units) when David Huff starts
Jackson (6-7, 3.97 ERA) is coming off his best start of the season last time out, throwing a complete-game shutout. One of the major encouraging factors about his recent performance has been his ability to pitch deep into games – he’s gone six innings or longer in eight consecutive starts. If the White Sox can muster up some run support against the lefty Huff, he would be a decent play. Unfortunately that’s no given as Chicago has scored one run or fewer in six of Jackson’s starts this year.
Huff (1-0, 0.00 ERA) threw seven scoreless innings his last time out, his only appearance in the majors thus far in 2011. Last year he was 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 15 starts. In his career he has struggled against the White Sox (8.04 ERA, 1.85 WHIP in two starts), but this should be a favorable matchup for him. The White Sox are 25th in MLB with a .239 batting average against lefties (and 27th in slugging, .349), something that should relax the southpaw making his second start of the year.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:05 EDT
Sunday line: TBD
CHW: 9-8 (+1.60 Units) when Philip Humber starts
CLE: 11-9 (+1.50 Units) when Justin Masterson starts
Humber (8-6, 3.27 ERA) struggled in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just nine innings, while allowing a whopping 18 hits in that span. He’s still had success notching strikeouts and limiting walks (10:2 K:BB), so he’s been sticking to the formula that has led him to success all year; he’s not as bad of a play as his recent stats indicate. He’ll be making his first career start versus the Indians.
Masterson (8-6, 2.64 ERA) has been Cleveland’s best starter this year and has only been getting better. Over his past three starts, he has a 1.66 ERA in 21.2 innings with an amazing 6.7 K-to-BB ratio (20 K, 3 BB). That, in addition to his success against the White Sox this season – two earned runs in 15 innings – makes him the play for this game.

MLB Series Outlook: Boston at Seattle

SEATTLE MARINERS (43-55, -11.8 Units)

at BOSTON RED SOX (59-37, +6.6 Units)


Sportsbook.com Series Line: Boston -220, Seattle +170

Since climbing back to .500 on July 5, the Mariners have gone on to lose 12 straight, all but ending any postseason thoughts. And it’s all happening just in time for Friday’s start of a three-game set in Boston, where the Red Sox have compiled the second-best road record in the American League.

While the reward on a Boston bet is small, betting the money line on Seattle makes even less sense. They’ve scored just 27 runs during their 12-game losing streak, hitting .208 along the way. Boston, on the other hand, has won 10 of 12 and scored 78 runs during that span. Even if they get a gem from Felix Hernandez on Friday, it’s highly unlikely the M’s will be able to outscore the Sox on Saturday or Sunday. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated trend siding with BOSTON to win the series.

SEATTLE is 0-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .345 or better this season. The average score was SEATTLE 2.6, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Pitching Probables for Saturday, July 23 - 7:10 ET
Saturday line: TBD
SEA: 1-2 (-0.85 Units) when Blake Beavan starts
BOS: 13-5 (+7.10 Units) when Josh Beckett starts
Beavan (1-1, 2.70 ERA) has gotten off to a pretty good start in his big league career, registering quality starts in each of his first three MLB appearances. He hasn’t exactly been dominant though, striking out just eight in 20 innings. Considering his mediocre numbers in Triple-A Tacoma (5-3, 4.45 ERA in 16 starts), he may not fare well in one of his toughest tests so far.
Beckett (8-3. 2.12 ERA) continues his Cy Young campaign, throwing eight innings of shutout, one-hit ball in Tampa on Sunday. He’s been nearly unhittable at home this year, going 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA as Boston has won six of his seven home starts. Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, he’s dominated the Mariners: 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA against Seattle, and Boston has won all six of his starts against the M’s.

Pitching Probables for Sunday, July 24 - 1:35 ET
Sunday line: TBD
SEA: 9-10 (-1.85 Units) when Michael Pineda starts
BOS: 8-4 (+2.85 Units) when Tim Wakefield starts
Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA) has hit a bit of a rookie wall, posting a 6.46 ERA over his past four starts. He’s still striking out hitters (25 K in 23.2 innings during that span), but his control has been off (11 walks) and he’s given up four homers in those four games. This will be his first career start against Boston, so he might have an edge against a team seeing him for the first time.
Wakefield (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been nothing to write home about, especially of late. Since June 1, he has a 5.29 ERA. His ERA in three July starts is 5.82, but the Sox have won all three of those games thanks to some monster offense. He’s just 4-10 career as a starter against the Mariners, but did hold them to one run over 5.2 innings in a Sox victory in May.

THROWING IN SOME BOXING FOR THIS EVENING:


Khan heavily favored to beat Judah Saturday night

Amir Khan (25-1) vs. Zab Judah (41-6)
Saturday, July 23 - 11:00 p.m. ET
Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino – Las Vegas, NV
IBF and WBA Light Welterweight Title Fight
Line: Khan -500, Judah +300


Final Result Odds
(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
Result Odds
Khan by KO/TKO/DQ 10-to-13
Khan by Decision 2-to-1
Judah by KO/TKO/DQ 4-to-1
Judah by Decision 8-to-1
Draw 20-to-1


The unification of the IBF and WBA light welterweight titles are on the line when Amir Khan and Zab Judah step into the ring on Saturday night.

When it comes down to it Khan is younger, bigger and faster. Look for him to take it easy in the early rounds, then wear down Judah from the fifth round on. Four of Judah’s six career losses have been by Decision. Look for Saturday to be No. 5. The prediction is KHAN in a Decision.

There are plenty of differences between the fighters. The 24-year-old Khan (25-1, 17 KO) is a rising star out of the U.K., while 33-year-old Brooklyn native Judah (41-6, 28 KO) is a veteran southpaw enjoying a rejuvenation.

Judah’s opportunities will come early. He’s historically a fast starter, and it could take Khan a while to adjust to the savvy left-hander. Judah has been on a bit of a comeback tour since dropping four welterweight fights between January 2006 and August 2008. He’s won five straight, including a seventh-round TKO of Kaizer Mabuza in March to grab the vacant IBF belt.

Back in August 2008, Khan was caught off-guard by Breidis Prescott, who knocked him out 54 seconds into the fight. Khan switched trainers after the loss and has had a string of success under Freddie Roach. He’s gone 7-0 (three by knockout) since the Prescott debacle, including impressive wins over Marco Antonio Barrera, Paul Malignaggi and Marcos Maidana. However, Khan did have some trouble with another veteran southpaw, Paul McCloskey, in an April bout. Khan had trouble landing clean shots, but eventually won a six-round technical decision when an accidental head butt opened a cut over McCloskey’s eye.

GIANTS NEED TO ACT FAST NOW !

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The San Francisco Giants passed on the chance at adding a big bat at last year's trade deadline, yet the decision paid off, as the team rode their incredible pitching staff to their first World Series title in 56 years.

Lightning may strike twice, but do the Giants really want to take that chance, especially when the Philadelphia Phillies seem to be following the exact same script that the Giants wrote last year?

The story is the same as it always seems to be in San Francisco. The Giants need a bat. The New York Mets' Carlos Beltran is there for the taking. Now is the time for general manager Brian Sabean to pull the trigger before this becomes an all-out bidding war.

While the Giants may have held the upper hand in these talks a few weeks ago, recent reports have mentioned the Boston Red Sox and Phillies as being the favorites in the Beltran race, making it even more necessary for the Giants to act now.

Last year, San Francisco decided to wait on a bat and plucked Cody Ross off the waiver wire in August. Not only did Ross fit the clubhouse like a glove, but he became a hero in the Bay Area when he slammed two home runs off Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the NLCS, setting the tone for the whole series.

Now Sabean could take that same risk again this year and hope that a player falls through the cracks during the waiver period. But, why wait? Especially when it could be the Phillies, perhaps their biggest obstacle to a second straight National League pennant, who wind up with Beltran.


Now is the time for general manager Brian Sabean to pull the trigger on Carlos Beltran before this becomes an all-out bidding war.
Now, it's going to cost. And the longer this goes on, the more the cost is going to be. Think Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves in 2007.

The Mets have said they would be willing to pick up whatever money is left on Beltran's contract for this season with the hopes of landing a top-of-the-line prospect. Given the interest of late, the Mets may wind up with at least two blue chip prospects.

Would the Giants be open to moving Madison Bumgarner and a major league-ready bat? If they want him, they might have to. There is talk in Philadelphia that the Phils are willing to deal Domonic Brown to get Beltran.

How bad do you want it, Giants?

The emergence of Buster Posey a year ago made Sabean's decision last July a lot easier when he chose to pass on Milwaukee slugger Corey Hart. In case you haven't noticed, Posey is no longer in the Giants' lineup and Nate Schierholtz is batting cleanup.

The Giants are hitting .244 as a team and have scored 361 runs with 64 home runs, the fourth-, third- and fifth-worst marks, respectively, among their NL peers. Not a comforting thought when you consider the prospect of potentially facing Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels down the road.

Let's be honest, the Phils and the Giants are in the same boat. Tremendous pitching staffs with inconsistent offenses. Forget Tim Lincecum and Halladay, Beltran could be the player who decides the NL pennant.

Given Jason Heyward's struggles, Atlanta also has stepped up its pursuit of Beltran. Apparently the Braves would be willing to move highly regarded right- hander Julio Teheran. Not only would it allow them to send Heyward down to the minors, but, of course, it would block Beltran from going to the two teams that in all likelihood will be standing in the Braves' way come playoff time.

Boston is apparently in the mix, but given the way Andrew Miller has looked of late and the injury situation surrounding its rotation, the Red Sox may have more pressing needs than adding another bat to a lineup that is on pace to be one of the best in the last 40 years.

The Giants can't afford to let this bat slip through the cracks.

As good as their pitching staff may be, Carlos Beltran might be the most important factor in the team winning another World Series title in October.

But Sabean has to act now.

Saturday's betting tips: Rangers thrive in extreme heat

Weather to watch

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers – Temperatures will hover around 100 degrees when the game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. Over the last four years, Texas is 77-54 in temperatures above 90 degrees, while Toronto is 8-14.

Check out the Notes and Tips section below for more exclusive *********** weather data.

Who’s hot

MLB: The Yankees are an incredible 28-5 in day games, and host Oakland at 1:05 p.m. ET.

MLB: Pittsburgh, 12-4 in its last 16 games against lefty starters, faces St. Louis lefty Jaime Garcia.

CFL: The Under is 6-1 in Winnipeg’s last seven games.

Who’s not

MLB: The Orioles have lost Brad Bergesen’s last seven home starts.

MLB: Colorado is 3-11 in Jason Hammel’s last 14 starts.

CFL: Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last seven meetings with Calgary.

Key stat

.111 -- Texas slugger Josh Hamilton’s average in day games, compared to .365 at night. Hamilton has 13 homers at night, none in the day games. He has started using eye drops, eyelid scrubs and sunglasses to fix his daytime woes.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Phillies closer Brad Lidge, sidelined all season with a rotator cuff strain, was activated Friday. He has 99 saves in three seasons in Philadelphia. Over Lidge’s eight-game minor league rehab stint, he posted a 3.52 ERA and struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings.

Game of the day

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (115, 7.5)

The Cards' Jaime Garcia (9-4) faces the Bucs' Kevin Correia (11-7) in a key NL Central series.

Notable quotable

"I think any deal within the NL East will carry some sort of premium -- not necessarily one that is prohibitive, but something more than if sent elsewhere.” – an NL East executive to ESPN.com, talking about trade possibilities for Mets All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran. The Phillies and Braves are among the interested teams.

Notes and tips

On top of the scorcher in Arlington, Tex., Saturday temperatures will be in the 90s for five MLB games in outdoor stadiums. Here’s a look at gametime temperatures and each team’s four-year record in 90-plus degree heat.

San Diego at Philadelphia, 4:10 p.m. ET, 98 degrees: Phillies are 20-16, Padres are 9-13.

Atlanta at Cincinnati, 4:10 p.m. ET, 92 degrees: Braves are 29-21, Reds are 6-9.

Oakland at New York Yankees, 1:05 p.m. ET, 95 degrees: Yankees are 21-12, A’s are 13-20.

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore, 7:05 p.m. ET, 97 degrees: Angels are 11-10, Orioles are 22-33.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 7:10 p.m. ET, 96 degrees: Royals are 23-27, Rays are 7-12.

There must be some good karma in Milwaukee; reliever Francisco Rodriguez says he doesn't mind not being the primary closer. "Somtimes you have to embrace your role and take care of what you have instead of worrying about what you don't have," K-Rod, traded by the Mets over the All-Star break, told MLB.com. With John Axford closing and Rodriguez pitching the 8th, the Brewers have the bullpen arms to win the crowded NL Central race.

The Cubs didn't make an error in Friday's 4-2 win over Houston, and that was newsworthy. They had made an error in their nine previous games, the team's longest-such streak since 1987. Another good sign for the Cubbies: Aramis Ramirez's hot bat. Since June 25, he has 13 homers and an .860 slugging percentage.

CFL
Dunkel


Week 4

SATURDAY, JULY 23

Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/19)
Game 493-494: Winnipeg at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 113.339; Toronto 111.037
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Toronto 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+3); Under

Game 495-496: Edmonton at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.077; Calgary 116.233
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Over


SUNDAY, JULY 24

Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 101.486; Montreal 122.316
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 21; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 11 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11 1/2); Under




CFL
Long Sheet


Week 4

Saturday, July 23

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WINNIPEG (2 - 1) at TORONTO (1 - 2) - 7/23/2011, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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EDMONTON (3 - 0) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/23/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 7-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, July 24

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SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 3) at MONTREAL (3 - 0) - 7/24/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 99-60 ATS (+33.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 85-54 ATS (+25.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL


Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 23

4:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 13 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Calgary13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games at home


Sunday, July 24

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan


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CFL


Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 4 odds and picks
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Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-3.5, 46)

The absence of Cory Boyd will be felt and the Bombers' defense should also prevail against the powerless Argos offense.

Toronto head coach Jim Barker is about to lose patience with QB Cleo Lemon.

“Now he must show up and lead this team” Baker told reporters. “Is there a sense of urgency? Sure. We expect him to play better and at a higher level.”

The Bombers won the first showdown of this series earlier and another win would give them a two-game lead on their East Division rivals. The health of QB Buck Pierce must worry the Bombers fans but this is a game where the two worst offenses in the CFL are facing each other. Toronto averages 309.7 yards per game against 292.7 for the Bombers.

If Pierce is in the game, Winnipeg will take the win and if he's not the Bombers are still a solid bet.

Pick: Blue Bombers


Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-3.5, 55)

Believe it or not, the Eskimos are still unbeaten but the Stampeders are always tough to beat at home and their record against the Eskimos last season was impressive.

Plus, the Stampeders are a better team than they've shown so far. Henry Burris still hasn't played a game where he fully displays his talent and that should be soon. The Eskimos are 1-4 ATS record in their last five visits to Calgary, while the Stamps have covered the spread in six of their seven last games against the Eskimos.

Pick: Stampeders


Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11.5, 56)

The Roughriders are not the team that fought valiantly against the Alouettes in the last two Grey Cups anymore. Meanwhile, the Alouettes have a receiving corps that is probably the best in the CFL and we won’t even mention the fact they will be playing on their home turf.

The Alouettes have scored 30 points or more in each of their first three games. The Roughriders looked foolish against the Tiger Cats last week but will be coming to Montreal with lots of motivation. It won’t be a blowout but the Alouettes should still cover the number.

Pick: Alouettes

MLB


Saturday, July 23

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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STREAKING

Jaime Garcia (9-4, 3.11 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

Sure, he’s not Albert Pujols but Cardinals fans have to be pretty happy about St. Louis locking up this 25-year-old righty for the next four years.

Garcia signed a $27.5 million contract extension a little over a week ago and the payday doesn’t appear to be a distraction. The second year hurler is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last three starts.

The Cards are also 3-1 in his last four appearances and the under is 2-0 in his last two trips to the bump.

Jeff Niemann (4-4, 3.94 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays

With all the star power in the Rays rotation, it’s easy to forget about Niemann. He’s not workhorse like James Shields, the franchise face like David Price or the future ace like Jeremy Hellickson.

But that doesn’t mean bettors should ignore his talents. The lanky right-hander went eight innings, striking out 10 and holding the mighty Red Sox scoreless in his last start.

That lowered his ERA this month down to 0.84 in 21 1/3 innings of work. The Rays are 4-1 in his outings and the under is 3-0 in his last three starts.


SLUMPING

Wandy Rodriguez (6-6, 3.67 ERA), Houston Astros

The Astros ace is having a bad month. Rodriguez is carrying a 7.41 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP into Saturday’s start against the Cubs.

Houston is 0-3 in the lefty’s last three appearances and 1-4 in his last five trips to the mound.

Ted Lilly (6-10, 4.83 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have lost five of Lilly's last six starts. He gave up two homers in his last outing against Arizona and has now served up 21 dingers this season.

Over his last five starts covering 32 2/3 innings, Lilly has yielded 25 earned runs. Opponents are hitting .273 against him. Over the last six weeks, his ERA has risen from 3.98 to 4.83.

WNBA


Saturday, July 23

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WNBA's best and worst bets from the first half
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The WNBA season reaches the midway point with the All-Star game this weekend, and if you've been betting it since the beginning, you've probably had enough by now.

Oddsmakers seem to be doing a much better job of setting lines and totals for a league that is often considered to be somewhere between 'beatable' and 'easily beatable.' But due to the unpredictability of some of the league's teams, particularly the elite teams, many WNBA bettors have already cried uncle and have instead turned their attention back to Major League Baseball.

In any case, whether you plan to keep betting WNBA or are just looking to get started, here is a look at the league's best and worst bets and the biggest first half surprise.

Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury (10-5 ATS)

Phoenix went 15-19 in 2010 and was one of the biggest question marks heading into 2011, especially after Diana Taurasi's tumultuous offseason, which included a doping allegation.

But the Mercury have gotten back to their winning ways, averaging a league-best 92.7 points per game and performing well as both favorites (5-3 ATS) and underdogs (5-2 ATS).

The Mercury were listed as dogs in six of their first eight games, and started the season 0-3. But after rattling off a four-game win streak, oddsmakers changed their tune and quickly adjusted. Over their last seven games, the Mercury have been favored six times and have covered the spread in five of them.

Worst Bet: Atlanta Dream (4-10-1 ATS)

OK, it's technically the Washington Mystics (4-10 ATS), but relative to preseason expectations, the Dream are without question the league's worst bet through the first half of the season.

The Dream were a popular pick to win the WNBA title, and at 6-9 overall, they certainly aren't out of the equation. But they'll have some work to do in the second half just to advance to the postseason, as they are currently second-to-last in the Eastern Conference standings ahead of only the Mystics.
The good news? The Dream finally seem to be trending upward. They've won their last three games and covered the spread each time, including twice as dogs.

Best Over Bet: Los Angeles Sparks (8-3-3)

The Sparks have been the league's best over bet, but just as easily, they could be one of the worst. The Sparks have pushed on the total three times, have gone over by a point or less twice, and two of their overs have come in overtime games.

Looking for a possible trend to watch? The Sparks have lost five straight when their game has gone over the posted total. Given the atrocious defense they are playing, that shouldn't be particularly surprising.

The Sparks are near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories and are ninth in points allowed, yielding 81.9 points per game.

Best Under Bet: Seattle Storm (10-5)

Oddsmakers can't set totals low enough for the Storm, easily the WNBA's best defensive team. The Storm allow a league-best 70 points per game, which is 4.3 points fewer than the next closest team, the Indiana Fever (74.3 ppg).

In the season opener against the Mercury, the over/under was set at 169.5 and the teams combined for 149. Since then? Ten of the Storm's last 14 games have had a posted total of less than 150 points, including the last nine.

Even though the Storm went under the total in their most recent game, there doesn't appear to be much value left. Totals in the lower to mid 140s will be increasingly more difficult to stay under going forward.

Biggest Surprise Team: San Antonio Silver Stars (9-5)

At least half of the league's teams have been a surprise, including the Storm (8-7) and Dream (6-9), two contenders who are both underachieving. But the biggest surprise has to be the Silver Stars, who are four games above .500 and have already eclipsed the win total many predicted they would have by season's end.

The Silver Stars began the year as 20-to-1 long shots to win the WNBA title by most sportsbooks, and were projected to finish ahead of only the Tulsa Shock (28-1) and Chicago Sky (33-1). But the Silver Stars, who are 8-6 ATS, have been incredible, especially on the road, where they are 5-2 on the season.

As it stands, the Silver Stars are a game back of the Minnesota Lynx for first in the Western Conference, and just a half-game back of the Mercury.

MLB


Saturday, July 23

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets
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Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (-105, 9.5)

It’s risky backing someone who lasted 1/3 of an inning in his last start, but Joel Pineiro should bounce back against the last-place Orioles. After all, he hadn’t lost since June 5 before last Sunday’s disaster in Oakland.

And the Angels are still 12-3 in Pineiro’s last 15 starts against losing teams.

This is more of a play against Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen. He made his first start since May 28 last Monday against Boston, and it wasn’t pretty. He gave up eight hits and six runs (four earned) in five innings.

It’s probably just a matter of time before Bergesen is demoted from the rotation again. The Orioles have lost his last seven starts at Camden Yards.

And we're getting good value with a far superior team.

Pick: Angels


Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (-120, 8.5)

The last time Derek Lowe faced Cincinnati, on May 28, the Reds pounded him for seven hits and five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Lowe also walked five batters.

And more recently, Lowe has been getting by on excessive run support. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts despite a 5.60 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. He’s allowed 23 hits in 17 2/3 innings.

Homer Bailey is coming off an impressive 7 1/3 innings in which he held St. Louis to one run on three hits.

The Reds are 17-5 in Bailey’s last 22 home starts.

Pick: Reds

Saturday's six-pack

-- How does a team with Felix Hernandez/Michael Pineda as starting pitchers lose 13 games in a row? Almost seems impossible.

-- Nelson Cruz knocked in eight runs in Rangers' 12-2 win over the Blue Jays, but Texas lost Adrian Beltre with an injured hamstring. Cruz was in an 8-43 tailspin before breaking out Friday.

-- Dan Uggla is still batting just .195 but he hit a pinch-hit HR in the 9th inning Friday, giving the Braves a 6-4 win in Cincinnati.

-- Rays just finished respectable 3-4 homestand against Bronx-Boston, so of course they go to Kansas City and lose 10-4.

-- Over was 10-5 Friday; bats heated up when the weather did.

-- If you love college football, ESPNU has been televising some of the preseason media day activities in the SEC this week. Good to get the brain working a little, with pigskin action only five weeks away.


********************


Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts with the weekend here.......

13) Real-life effect of the lockout; am going to seriously think about switching back from cable to DirecTV, but only if theres going to be a full NFL season. As soon as they announce the season is on, I’ll make a decision about my TV, one way or the other.

NFL Sunday Ticket is a great thing to have at home—its really the only reason to switch from cable TV to satellite. They also offer a few more channels than cable, but cable has way better customer service.

12) Peyton Manning can’t be real happy these days; not only won’t he ready for the start of training camp because of a neck injury, but Tom Moore, the longtime Indy offensive coordinator, is now working for the Jets. This could be a long year for the Colts, in a city where the Super Bowl is being held next February.

11) Once it is established that there’s going to be a 2011 NFL season, the clamor for free agents is going to get crazy quick; going to be a wild week, to see who surfaces on what team.

10) Handicapping the NFL will be especially challenging this year, given the unique nature of this offseason. This will be a season like no other in recent history. Not sure if that’s good or bad.

9) Read today where Carlos Beltran doesn’t want to get traded to an AL club, because he doesn’t want to DH (see Dunn, Adam), so does that keep the Red Sox in play, since they already have a full-time DH (Ortiz)?

Weasel agent Scott Boras is Beltran's agent; he doesn't want Beltran to lose any money in his free agent negotiations because he's typecast as a DH, which is smart. Beltran is nowhere near the outfielder he used to be, but he's still pretty good out there.

As for Boras, being a weasel doesn't mean you can't be smart, too.

8) Speaking of Dunn, after hitting 38+ HR’s the last seven years, and knocking in 100+ runs in six of last seven, he’s sitting here with nine HR’s and a .163 batting average on July 23. In case you were wondering, espn.com told us today that of all the players who ever qualified for a batting title in a single season, Rob Deer (.179 in ’91) had the worst single-season batting average.

7) Of all the play/play guys in any sport, I think the NHL’s Mike Emrick is the best. 64-year old Emrick is cutting back his workload this year, working just the NBC/Versus games and ending his 21-year run doing New Jersey Devil games. Devil fans will miss him.

6) I’d like to see a movie or read about the travels of the Stanley Cup during a typical offseason. Every member of the championship team gets the Cup for a day, and NHL players come from all over the world. The guys who travel with the Cup must get quite the education.

5) Now that BYU is an independent like Notre Dame, whats to stop the two religiously-affiliated schools from starting up their own rivalry? Shouldn’t independent teams play a harder schedule, to justify wherever they get placed in the bowl sequence?

4) If you’ve ever seen the TV show Necessary Roughness on USA Network, be advised that the guy who plays the football team’s trainer, Tim Blucas, was a hooper at Wake Forest during the Tim Duncan era. Had to be pretty good to play on those teams.

3) Was reading some college basketball recruiting info and saw Mark Turgeon referenced as Maryland’s new coach; its going to be very strange without Gary Williams on the Terps’ bench this winter. Wonder if he’ll pick up a TV gig anywhere.

2) Back a few years, I spent the last two weeks of July down in Florida five years in a row, watching summer basketball tournaments near Disney World in Kissimmee. It was great fun, watching games 12+ hours a day; saw Glen Davis, Tyler HanXXXough, OJ Mayo play. I miss doing that, but a guy can only take so many vacations.

1) Problem with being at those tournaments was that I was the only adult there who was on his vacation, other than maybe some of the parents (who were trying to get their kids scholarships). Took me a while to realize that normal people go the beach on summer vacation. Whoops.

CFL
Dunkel - POD


Edmonton at Calgary
The Stampeders look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Calgary is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3).




CFL
Write-Up


Saturday, July 23

Winnipeg (2-1) @ Toronto (1-2)-- Argos (+2) lost 22-16 at Winnipeg in Week 2, turning ball over four times, allowing seven sacks, after beating Bombers three times LY, by 2-4-19 points- average total is 42.3 in last four series meetings. Winnipeg led Calgary 11-7 at half last week, lost 21-20 for first loss of season- they've had 108+ rushing yards in all three games, but team that won turnover battle won all three of their games.

Edmonton (3-0) @ Calgary (2-1)-- Surprising Eskimos won first three games in dominating fashion, by 14-18-16 points; they're already +7 in turnovers and have run ball for 140.7 yards/game. Stampeders trailed at half 11-7 in Winnipeg last week, rallied for 21-20 win- their three games this season have been decided by total of five points, with underdog 3-0 vs spread in those games. Calgary has turned ball over nine times in three games, a lot for team that won two of those three games.

MLB
Dunkel


Detroit at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 14-4 record in Scott Baker's last 18 starts as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Minnesota is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 23

Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.072; Cubs (Wells) 14.578
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); N/A

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.365; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.841
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under

Game 955-956: San Diego at Philadelphia (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.108; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.531
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Over

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.574; Pittsburgh (Correia) 14.772
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Capuano) 15.845; Florida (Hensley) 14.661
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.178; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.317
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Over

Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.966; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.114
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under

Game 965-966: Washington at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gorzelanny) 14.405; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.996
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 16.955; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.323
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+160); Over

Game 969-970: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Penny) 14.888; Minnesota (Baker) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 14.327; Cleveland (Huff) 15.373
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.828; Baltimore (Bergesen) 13.621
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 13.653; Boston (Beckett) 16.475
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-270); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-270); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.567; Kansas City (Francis) 14.853
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Under

Game 979-930: Toronto at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Villanueva) 15.515; Texas (Harrison) 16.674
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-165); Under