Concerned about Peyton Manning?
By Eric Karabell
ESPN Insider
One of these years, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is going to succumb to injuries or old age or the lack of talent around him or something … but I don't think it's going to happen in 2011. Manning remains one of those few upper-echelon quarterbacks you can get away with selecting in the second round of almost any fantasy football draft -- though I'm going running back or wide receiver there -- and look really smart, if not predictably boring. But hey, you want numbers, not approval from skeptical league mates.
So it is that on this scorching Friday filled with much NFL talk -- fingers crossed -- that I check around on message boards and Twitter and other places where fantasy football owners desperate for the season to start will discuss just about anything, and the recent announcement that Manning will probably not be ready for the start of training camp, unless it's delayed a lot longer than any of us want, has people concerned. Well, it doesn't have me worried, and I doubt it has the Colts worried.
For those that do not panic when a player has routine offseason surgery on his neck for a bulging disc, good for you. For those that see Manning slip outside the top five signal callers on draft day, even better for you.
Manning comes off a season with a career high in passing yards (4,700), as well as 33 touchdown passes, and who knows for how much of it he was dealing with neck pain or a pinched nerve or whatever forced the minimally invasive procedure he underwent in late May. Manning put up numbers and yes, he is 35. But I wouldn't exactly call him in decline. He was ESPN Fantasy's fifth-best scorer for the 2010 season, third among quarterbacks and a mere 13 fantasy points behind everyone's hero, Aaron Rodgers. Thirteen points over the course of a season, even without considering which round they were drafted in, is minor.
Of course, I can't recall the last time I owned this Manning in a fantasy league; I'm far more likely to stock up on running backs and wide receivers with my first six or seven draft picks and own Eli Manning than Peyton, but surely I can appreciate the difference here in the statistics and value. The point is, perhaps this is the year big brother slips down far enough in drafts for me to abandon normal strategy. If I see him in Round 3, for example, I take him.
Put it this way: I already expect that Michael Vick is going to be selected ahead of Manning in pretty much all leagues. Vick scares me, which is why, as an Eagles fan, I don't want to see backup Kevin Kolb sent packing to Arizona or wherever, and I can't choose Vick over Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Manning, in that order. I'd probably go with Philip Rivers, too. I don't mind being in the minority here (well, colleague Christopher Harris seems to partially agree, and he's way smart!) because we won't know for sure for months. Trust your gut. If you're concerned about Vick getting hurt or defenses catching up, play the safe route and go Peyton Manning. But I also see random rankings/opinions out there that recommend Tony Romo, Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan over Peyton. Sorry, I just can't go there.
In theory, the Colts will have a healthy Dallas Clark and Austin Collie helping out, though it's not like Manning was hurting for targets. Reggie Wayne remains ultra-productive, tight end Jacob Tamme thrived in Clark's place last season, Pierre Garcon is useful and running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, while disappointing, combined for nearly 1,000 rushing yards with a combined number of attempts that was similar to other second-tier running backs such as Matt Forte and Fred Jackson. Addai and Brown are two players, so fantasy owners let them slide individually, but they're enough of a threat for Manning to be an effective passer. And Manning doesn't need training camp or the preseason; he has missed some or all of past Augusts and not missed a beat.
ESPN Fantasy ranks Manning fifth among quarterbacks and projects a cool 4,575 passing yards and 31 touchdown passes. I'm on board with that. Perhaps the interceptions won't fall to past levels, and we might even see Manning's unblemished name show up on the occasional injury report. In the coming weeks you might even read/hear that his Week 1 status is in jeopardy. Well, I don't buy it. Manning is a statistical machine, and if this is the year he simply stops getting it done -- such as Brett Favre or Donovan McNabb last season -- I'll let you know in October when his play proves it. For now, don't worry.
By Eric Karabell
ESPN Insider
One of these years, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is going to succumb to injuries or old age or the lack of talent around him or something … but I don't think it's going to happen in 2011. Manning remains one of those few upper-echelon quarterbacks you can get away with selecting in the second round of almost any fantasy football draft -- though I'm going running back or wide receiver there -- and look really smart, if not predictably boring. But hey, you want numbers, not approval from skeptical league mates.
So it is that on this scorching Friday filled with much NFL talk -- fingers crossed -- that I check around on message boards and Twitter and other places where fantasy football owners desperate for the season to start will discuss just about anything, and the recent announcement that Manning will probably not be ready for the start of training camp, unless it's delayed a lot longer than any of us want, has people concerned. Well, it doesn't have me worried, and I doubt it has the Colts worried.
For those that do not panic when a player has routine offseason surgery on his neck for a bulging disc, good for you. For those that see Manning slip outside the top five signal callers on draft day, even better for you.
Manning comes off a season with a career high in passing yards (4,700), as well as 33 touchdown passes, and who knows for how much of it he was dealing with neck pain or a pinched nerve or whatever forced the minimally invasive procedure he underwent in late May. Manning put up numbers and yes, he is 35. But I wouldn't exactly call him in decline. He was ESPN Fantasy's fifth-best scorer for the 2010 season, third among quarterbacks and a mere 13 fantasy points behind everyone's hero, Aaron Rodgers. Thirteen points over the course of a season, even without considering which round they were drafted in, is minor.
Of course, I can't recall the last time I owned this Manning in a fantasy league; I'm far more likely to stock up on running backs and wide receivers with my first six or seven draft picks and own Eli Manning than Peyton, but surely I can appreciate the difference here in the statistics and value. The point is, perhaps this is the year big brother slips down far enough in drafts for me to abandon normal strategy. If I see him in Round 3, for example, I take him.
Put it this way: I already expect that Michael Vick is going to be selected ahead of Manning in pretty much all leagues. Vick scares me, which is why, as an Eagles fan, I don't want to see backup Kevin Kolb sent packing to Arizona or wherever, and I can't choose Vick over Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Manning, in that order. I'd probably go with Philip Rivers, too. I don't mind being in the minority here (well, colleague Christopher Harris seems to partially agree, and he's way smart!) because we won't know for sure for months. Trust your gut. If you're concerned about Vick getting hurt or defenses catching up, play the safe route and go Peyton Manning. But I also see random rankings/opinions out there that recommend Tony Romo, Josh Freeman and Matt Ryan over Peyton. Sorry, I just can't go there.
In theory, the Colts will have a healthy Dallas Clark and Austin Collie helping out, though it's not like Manning was hurting for targets. Reggie Wayne remains ultra-productive, tight end Jacob Tamme thrived in Clark's place last season, Pierre Garcon is useful and running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, while disappointing, combined for nearly 1,000 rushing yards with a combined number of attempts that was similar to other second-tier running backs such as Matt Forte and Fred Jackson. Addai and Brown are two players, so fantasy owners let them slide individually, but they're enough of a threat for Manning to be an effective passer. And Manning doesn't need training camp or the preseason; he has missed some or all of past Augusts and not missed a beat.
ESPN Fantasy ranks Manning fifth among quarterbacks and projects a cool 4,575 passing yards and 31 touchdown passes. I'm on board with that. Perhaps the interceptions won't fall to past levels, and we might even see Manning's unblemished name show up on the occasional injury report. In the coming weeks you might even read/hear that his Week 1 status is in jeopardy. Well, I don't buy it. Manning is a statistical machine, and if this is the year he simply stops getting it done -- such as Brett Favre or Donovan McNabb last season -- I'll let you know in October when his play proves it. For now, don't worry.
