Top 10 NFL Free Agents By Bargain, Best Fit, And Risk

Ten best NFL bargain free agents

When the top free agents are signed, these are the guys teams should be going after

Rivers McCown
Football Outsiders

ESPN Insider

The recipe for a bargain free agent is fairly simple.


Look for big reasons a former team would become disenchanted with the player: injuries, age, inconsistent production or a focus on the things the player can't do rather than the things he can. Stir that with a little bit of depth at certain positions on the free-agent market, and you have the mixture needed to produce a bargain signing.


You'll notice elements of each in some of these guys, and others that rely heavily on just one characteristic.


Here are the top bargain free agents in the 2011 class:


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10. James Anderson


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James Anderson

#50 LB
Carolina Panthers

2010 STATS

• Tot130
• Solo101
• Ast29
• FF2
• Sack3.5
• Int1

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 1 -->Anderson had never been a full-time starter prior to this year but announced his ascension to the role with a strong season for a poor Carolina team. He compiled 30 Defeats (explained here) and was a presence in underneath coverage. He also soaked up an obscene 130 tackles in Carolina's Sam linebacker role. The Panthers will have a lot of money to attempt to re-sign him with, and he'll be overshadowed a bit by fellow free-agent linebackers Stephen Tulloch and Paul Posluszny, so if anyone on this list stays with his current team, it's probably Anderson.


<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER><OFFER>9. Tyler Thigpen


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Tyler Thigpen

#16 QB
Miami Dolphins

2010 STATS

• Att62
• Comp33
• Yds435
• TD2
• Int2
• Rat73.0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 2 -->There are only a finite number of good-to-great quarterbacks in the NFL, and once you get past those you're more likely to see an established mediocrity, such as Jake Delhomme or Kerry Collins, under center than a less-experienced backup such as Thigpen. Thigpen doesn't help matters by succeeding mainly as a spread quarterback, and thus the obvious fit for him will be Buffalo, where he can reunite with Chan Gailey, his offensive coordinator on the 2009 Chiefs. There isn't a whole lot of upside here, but Thigpen can be a perfectly competent quarterback in his preferred system. That's more than you can say for quite a few quarterbacks who were allowed more snaps than him last season.


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8. Jerome Harrison


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Jerome Harrison

#33 RB
Philadelphia Eagles

2010 STATS

• Rush71
• Yds330
• TD1
• Rec12
• Yds85
• TD0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 3 -->The Cleveland Browns were always looking for reasons not to play Harrison, no matter how much he produced on the field. He gained five yards a carry between 2007 and 2009, and nearly broke the single-game rushing record with 286 yards against Kansas City late in 2009. The Browns wouldn't even use him in a committee with Peyton Hillis, and traded him to Philadelphia, where he gained six yards per carry over eight games. If you've got a power back you can pair with Harrison, you can get a very efficient, elusive back for very little money.


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7. Carlos Rogers


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Carlos Rogers

#22 CB
Washington Redskins

2010 STATS

• Tot54
• Solo43
• Ast11
• FF1
• Sack0.0
• Int2

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 4 -->Rogers has an ugly fault for a cornerback: He can't catch footballs. While that may keep him from making a number of game-changing plays like fellow Redskins corner DeAngelo Hall, Rogers is much steadier than Hall at things like "actually covering receivers," which is a pretty good trait for a corner to have. He had a down year in 2009, but aside from that Rogers has generally mixed very good yards per play averages with decent Stop Rates -- our measure of how successful a player was at keeping the offense from having a productive play. He's not an elite corner, and recently turning 30 limits his long-term contributions, but Rogers would definitely make a good second cornerback for a number of teams.


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6. Steve Breaston


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Steve Breaston

#15 WR
Arizona Cardinals

2010 STATS

• Rec47
• Yds718
• TD1
• Avg15.3
• Long37
• YAC167

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 5 -->The Cardinals have been concerned about the state of Breaston's knee for some time, but it didn't stop the Arizona wideout from going over 700 yards receiving for the third straight season. His Catch Rate was way down, from 67 percent in 2009 to 54 percent last year, so you can see why the Cardinals had some concerns, but a receiver of Breaston's caliber could find a second or third receiver role in a number of offenses if he's healthy. Kansas City has already been linked to him due to his association with Todd Haley. Teams such as Tennessee, Miami, Minnesota and Seattle could also be fits for Breaston.


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5. Josh Wilson


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Josh Wilson

#37 CB
Baltimore Ravens

2010 STATS

• Tot40
• Solo37
• Ast3
• FF0
• Sack0.0
• Int3

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 6 -->Baltimore obtained Wilson from the Seahawks for a fifth-round pick, and he excelled for them while healthy last season, collecting three interceptions -- including one from Matt Schaub that he returned for a game-winning touchdown. The Ravens decided to draft Jimmy Smith in the first round this year, though, making Wilson somewhat expendable. His play on the field has been pretty stellar the past couple of seasons, but his history of bumps and bruises will likely drive his price down. He and Rogers would have been the best cornerbacks on the market after Leigh Bodden last offseason, but they had the misfortune to be in the same crop as Nnamdi Asomugha, Johnathan Joseph, Ike Taylor and Antonio Cromartie this year.


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4. Jared Gaither


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Jared Gaither

#71 OT
Baltimore Ravens

2010 STATS

• Tot -
• Solo -
• Ast -
• FF -
• Sack -
• Int -

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 7 -->It seems the Ravens will be making Marshal Yanda their priority at tackle in this abbreviated offseason, with Michael Oher set at the other slot. Gaither missed all of last year due to a back injury but looked like a steal in 2009 after the Ravens plucked him out of the supplemental draft. With a hulking 6-foot-9, 360-pound frame, Gaither should be a match for tackle-needy teams, such as Buffalo, Indianapolis or Pittsburgh, if he proves his back woes are over.


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3. Dawan Landry


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Dawan Landry

#26 S
Baltimore Ravens

2010 STATS

• Tot111
• Solo86
• Ast25
• FF1
• Sack1.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 8 -->With the Ravens possibly turning over strong safety to Tom Zbikowski, Landry has had the misfortune of falling into a very deep market for his position. Landry is a steady tackler who plays the run quite well and while he doesn't have a long history of being great against the pass, he dropped his passing YPA allowed to a career low 8.9 last season. He's not quite as good as Quintin Mikell statistically, but his younger age should have those same few teams weighing the benefits of the two of them carefully.


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2. Jacob Ford


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Jacob Ford

#78 DE
Tennessee Titans

2010 STATS

• Tot42
• Solo31
• Ast11
• FF1
• Sack3.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 9 -->A former Football Outsiders Top Prospect, Ford's numbers have been artificially depressed by Washburn's constant shuffling and rotations along the defensive line. Ford isn't a difference-maker against the run, but he has accumulated 15.5 sacks and 28 hurries despite starting just eight games over the past three years.


Coming off his worst season, the market for his services will be slower than it should be. It's worth pondering how high his ceiling would be if Washburn couldn't mold him into a starter in three years, but Ford could be a significant addition to a number of teams looking for an edge rusher, even if it's only as a third-down contributor. The best-case scenario? His career looks a lot like Charles Johnson's up to this point, and once Johnson managed to get in the starting lineup, he made opposing quarterbacks pay.


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1. Quintin Mikell


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Quintin Mikell

#27 S
Philadelphia Eagles

2010 STATS

• Tot88
• Solo77
• Ast11
• FF1
• Sack1.0
• Int3

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 10 -->All Mikell has done is rank in the top 10 in yards per play and Stop Rate for safeties every year he has been a full-time starter. If he was 26 instead of 31 in September, he might be the best non-Asomugha free agent available. Instead, there's already been talk he is the backup option for a few teams. Teams such as Houston, Dallas, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Minnesota could make for a great landing spot for the former Eagles safety.

Ten best fits for 2011 NFL free agents

Where Nnamdi Asomugha, Ray Edwards and others would fit best


If your favorite team needs help on defense, this is a terrific free-agency period to find it. Seven of the 10 free agents below play on the defensive line or in the secondary. For teams like the Jaguars or Texans, who have struggled with their pass defense over multiple seasons, this would be an ideal time to splurge big on a few new free agents. In the interest of fairness, however, we'll limit each team to just one player.


Here are the best free-agent fits for the 2011 class:


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10. Zach Miller -- Buffalo Bills



Years of Robert Royal and Matt Campbell campaigns may have dulled you to this, but a long time ago -- back when the Bills actually won football games -- Jay Riemersma gave Buffalo a credible receiving threat at tight end.
<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- begin player card --> Zach Miller

#80 TE
Oakland Raiders

2010 STATS

• Rec60
• Yds685
• TD5
• Avg11.4
• Long43
• YAC271

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 1 -->The Raiders seem very determined to keep Miller, but if he can somehow free himself, he would be a big boost for Chan Gailey's spread attack. The Bills need to be in asset accumulation mode while they wait for a young quarterback to take the reins away from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Still just 25, Miller fits with that plan and would give Quarterback Who May Or May Not Be Named Andrew Luck, Landry Jones or Matt Barkley a reliable outlet valve in the 2012 season. Buffalo would likely have to overpay for Miller's services, but it should have plenty of cash socked away to do so.


<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER><OFFER>9. Ray Edwards -- Detroit Lions


In their quest to create a line to answer to the mid-to-late 2000s Vikings, the Lions have assembled three scary players in 2010 Defensive Rookie of the Year Ndamukong Suh, rookie first-rounder Nick Fairley and defensive end Cliff Avril, who quietly had 34 hurries and 8.5 sacks last year.
<!-- begin inline 2 --><!-- begin player card --> Ray Edwards

#91 DE
Minnesota Vikings

2010 STATS

• Tot37
• Solo28
• Ast9
• FF0
• Sack8.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 2 -->The only weak point on the line may be Kyle Vanden Bosch, who was a productive signing for Detroit last year but is 32 and coming off neck surgery. Enter Edwards, who had 23 hurries and eight sacks of his own last season. With him in the fold -- and Vanden Bosch freed up for situational duty -- the Lions' defensive line could be every bit the force that Minnesota's was in the latter part of the past decade.


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8. Sidney Rice -- Tennessee Titans



Rice underwent hip surgery before the 2010 season and played through the pain, but because he's still only 24, he's expected to draw one of the biggest checks on the open market.
<!-- begin inline 3 --><!-- begin player card --> Sidney Rice

#18 WR
Minnesota Vikings

2010 STATS

• Rec17
• Yds280
• TD2
• Avg16.5
• Long46
• YAC43

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 3 -->He did have a fabulous 2009 season with Brett Favre, leading NFL wide receivers in total value according to Football Outsiders' DYAR metric. Due to his youth, he'd be a good buy for a team that needs to build a real offensive identity, and with Kenny Britt spending his offseason trying to make a run at Pacman Jones' hallowed franchise police blotter records, the Titans could definitely use a dependable receiver for Jake Locker to get the ball to.


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7. Aubrayo Franklin -- Kansas City Chiefs



After being franchised last season, San Francisco's giant nose tackle put in another productive season anchoring the middle of the 49ers' defense.
<!-- begin inline 4 --><!-- begin player card --> Aubrayo Franklin

#92 DT
San Francisco 49ers

2010 STATS

• Tot39
• Solo38
• Ast1
• FF0
• Sack0.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 4 -->In each of the past two seasons, Franklin has been in the top five for defensive linemen in stop rate, our measure of how successful a player was at keeping the offense from having a productive play. True nose tackles are in high demand these days, but the best fit for him comes in Kansas City, where the Chiefs could stand to do better than 32-year-old Ron Edwards.


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6. Brandon Mebane -- Denver Broncos



Denver's defense was awful in all facets last year, but perhaps the ugliest thing about this team was that despite spending a ton on free-agent defensive linemen last offseason, their DVOA of plus-5.2 percent (remember, positive numbers on defense are bad) against the run was 29th in the NFL.
<!-- begin inline 5 --><!-- begin player card --> Brandon Mebane

#92 DT
Seattle Seahawks

2010 STATS

• Tot31
• Solo19
• Ast12
• FF0
• Sack1.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 5 -->Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan, a pair of starters in the Broncos' 3-4 last year, have been released. The Broncos seem to trust Kevin Vickerson to fill one of the inside slots in John Fox's 4-3, but a punishing run-stuffer like Mebane could really be a difference-maker for Denver. The Panthers' defense under Fox always thrived when they had a stout defensive tackle clogging the middle, and Mebane could be the Denver version of what Kris Jenkins brought to Carolina in the early Fox days.


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5. Charles Johnson -- Seattle Seahawks



If Johnson shops his offer back to the Panthers before signing, odds are that he'll be back in Carolina, because with the new league-wide salary floor, they have a lot of money to play with.
<!-- begin inline 6 --><!-- begin player card --> Charles Johnson

#95 DE
Carolina Panthers

2010 STATS

• Tot62
• Solo51
• Ast11
• FF1
• Sack11.5
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 6 -->If he's looking to escape, though, Seattle could be an interesting place for him. Johnson had 10 sacks in two years while waiting for the Julius Peppers situation to resolve itself, and when freed upon Peppers' departure to Chicago, had 11.5 in his first year as a starter last season. He also added 31 quarterback hurries according to our game charting project. Seattle had a horrendous pass defense last year, despite getting 20 combined sacks out of Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock. Those statistics look like real outliers compared to their career numbers, and Brock is a free agent. Johnson would give defensive line coach Dan Quinn a real talent to mold.


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4. Santonio Holmes -- Baltimore Ravens



The Ravens collected a trio of pretty good wideouts last season with Anquan Boldin, the ageless Derrick Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
<!-- begin inline 7 --><!-- begin player card --> Santonio Holmes

#10 WR
New York Jets

2010 STATS

• Rec52
• Yds746
• TD6
• Avg14.3
• Long52
• YAC229

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 7 -->Their problem was that none of those receivers qualify as a true deep threat at this point in their respective careers, and actual long-ball specialist Donte' Stallworth was barely on the field. Second-round pick Torrey Smith could eventually take over that role, but if the Ravens want a win-now option that can help them stretch the field, it's Holmes. ESPN NFL Matchup guru Greg Cosell swears by Holmes as a top-five receiver. If he can unclutter the short passing game for the Ravens, they could very well be AFC favorites.


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3. Johnathan Joseph -- Houston Texans



Nnamdi Asomugha is the name that keeps being connected to the Texans via the rumor mill, but the guess here is that they envision Joseph as a better fit for their team.
<!-- begin inline 8 --><!-- begin player card --> Johnathan Joseph

#22 CB
Cincinnati Bengals

2010 STATS

• Tot42
• Solo37
• Ast5
• FF0
• Sack0.0
• Int3

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 8 -->Whenever Houston has made forays into free agency, youth has been a big factor. Guys like Antonio Smith and Jacques Reeves weren't the best players at their position in free agency, but had an appealing combination of age and skill. Unlike those guys, Joseph is no consolation prize: the Bengals utilize a lot of different looks and Joseph has shown that he can play them all well. It would be a great signing for the Texans, but caveat emptor: Joseph has played all 16 games only once in his career.


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2. Eric Weddle -- Jacksonville Jaguars



A.J. Smith's signing of Bob Sanders may be an indication that the Chargers are willing to let their best safety walk this offseason.
<!-- begin inline 9 --><!-- begin player card --> Eric Weddle

#32 S
San Diego Chargers

2010 STATS

• Tot96
• Solo80
• Ast16
• FF0
• Sack0.5
• Int2

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 9 -->There isn't a team in the NFL that needs Weddle more than the Jaguars. Last season Jacksonville's two main starters at safety, Courtney Greene and Don Carey, were two of the worst in the NFL in pass coverage. Weddle would immediately remedy that, can deliver big hits and is still young enough to be a building block for the Jags. Turning their pass defense completely around is probably a multiyear project, but Weddle would be a big coup for the Jaguars.


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1. Nnamdi Asomugha -- Dallas Cowboys



Asomugha will hit the free-agent market for the first time after Al Davis' sound strategy of "make sure to get it in writing that we can't use the franchise tag on our best player" shockingly backfired.
<!-- begin inline 10 --><!-- begin player card --> Nnamdi Asomugha

#21 CB
Oakland Raiders

2010 STATS

• Tot19
• Solo17
• Ast2
• FF0
• Sack0.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 10 -->Asomugha's value is hard to quantify in counting numbers, as he had no sacks, interceptions or fumble recoveries last year. The reason? Nobody throws at him. Per our charting project, despite starting 14 games for the Raiders last season, Asomugha was targeted on just 7.9 percent of opponent's passes. To put that into context, 2009 Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson has drawn a little more than 14 percent of his opponent's passes in each of his past three seasons. Terence Newman was terrible in Dallas last season and has always been a bit overrated, while Mike Jenkins regressed strongly from a promising second year. The Cowboys have the money and the need. If they can convince Asomugha that they can compete for a Super Bowl this year, he seems like an ideal fit in Dallas.

Top 10 riskiest NFL offseason moves

Your team thinking about trading for Kevin Kolb? He isn't without his risks


NFL general managers are going to be in a tough spot now that the lockout has ended and the free-agent bidding period is about to begin. The combination of a slew of talented free agents, the new salary-floor rules and the short period of time available to get players signed and into camp greatly increases the chances of making expensive personnel acquisition mistakes.


One of the ways to avoid those mistakes is through risk management. Effective use of this technique helps determine which players are worth taking a risk on and which are best avoided (or at least should be avoided at the wrong price).


It is with that thought in mind that we present the top 10 riskiest free agents/likely-to-be-traded veterans on the market.


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10. CB Nnamdi Asomugha

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Nnamdi Asomugha

#21 CB
Oakland Raiders

2010 STATS

• Tot19
• Solo17
• Ast2
• FF0
• Sack0.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 1 -->Asomugha is a terrific cornerback, but an $18 million per year price tag is a premium cost that makes sense only if the player is far ahead of his competition.


That may not be the case with Asomugha. Look at this comparison with Johnathan Joseph:

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Elite CB Comparison

Comparing Asomugha and Joseph's statistics from the past two years reveals that the gap between them isn't that large.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Age</TH><TH>Targets</TH><TH>Completions/defensive penalties</TH><TH>Yds allowed</TH><TH>YPA</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Asomugha</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>54</TD><TD></TD><TD>419</TD><TD>7.8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Joseph</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>114</TD><TD></TD><TD>993</TD><TD>6.9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Joseph has been targeted nearly three times as often, yet has a lower YPA total. This isn't to say that Joseph is the better cornerback, but if he can be had for half the cost of Asomugha (or less), it could be a move that provides much more bang for the buck.


<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER><OFFER>9. TE Kevin Boss

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Kevin Boss

#89 TE
New York Giants

2010 STATS

• Rec35
• Yds531
• TD5
• Avg15.2
• Long54
• YAC237

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 3 -->Check out some of the median metrics totals for the 39 tight ends that ended the season with at least 32 targets last season.


Targets -- 64
YPA -- 7.6
Success rate (making a reception or drawing a defensive pass penalty) -- 69.7


Now look at Boss' 2010 figures in those same categories: 68 targets, 7.9 YPA, 54.4 success rate (second-lowest in the league).


These numbers strongly suggest he is an average starting tight end. Anything more than an average contract is paying too much for him.


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8. DE Cullen Jenkins

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Cullen Jenkins

#77 DE
Green Bay Packers

2010 STATS

• Tot18
• Solo13
• Ast5
• FF0
• Sack7.0
• Int0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 4 -->Grantland's Bill Barnwell recently wrote a terrific article that showed why going after defensive ends coming off of big years and signing ex-Pittsburgh Steelers defenders are both bad ideas.


Jenkins fits in the first category, and being coached by former Steelers defensive coordinator Dom Capers puts him in the latter in a roundabout way. Throw in the fact that his seven sacks last year were nearly as many as he had posted in the previous three seasons combined and it means a repeat performance of his 2010 campaign is unlikely.


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7. WR Santonio Holmes

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Santonio Holmes

#10 WR
New York Jets

2010 STATS

• Rec52
• Yds746
• TD6
• Avg14.3
• Long52
• YAC229

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 5 -->Many focus on Holmes' off-field issues (detailed here), but his vertical receiving inconsistency could be just as much of a concern.


He is thought to be an elite downfield threat, but his 10.3 vertical YPA and 11.3 stretch vertical YPA ranked 46th and 50th, respectively, last season. This isn't the first time his ranking here has been subpar, as his 9.2 vertical YPA in 2008 ranked 56th in the league.


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6. S Michael Huff



Huff can do many things well (94 tackles, four sacks and three interceptions in 2010), but he has one glaring coverage weakness: He isn't good at covering receivers one-on-one.
<!-- begin inline 6 --><!-- begin player card --> Michael Huff

#24 S
Oakland Raiders

2010 STATS

• Tot94
• Solo77
• Ast17
• FF3
• Sack4.0
• Int3

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 6 -->Last year he had 23 plays in which he was assigned this type of coverage, and he allowed 16 completions and a ridiculously high 11.9 YPA on those passes.


The plus is that Huff did quite well on plays in which he gave over-the-top coverage help to another defender (only three completions in 14 passes), so it may just be a matter of getting him on a team that will keep him away from direct coverage.


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5. CB Ike Taylor

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Ike Taylor

#24 CB
Pittsburgh Steelers

2010 STATS

• Tot66
• Solo52
• Ast14
• FF1
• Sack1.0
• Int2

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 7 -->There are red flags everywhere for Taylor: the aforementioned Barnwell admonition against ex-Steelers defenders, his age (31), average or worse YPA totals in each of the past five years (ranging from 7.1 to 9.6) and the rumor that the interest in him could be artificially inflated.


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4. RB Ronnie Brown



One of the studies done for the TFS 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide was to review how well running backs did when they received good blocking situations (loosely defined as when the blockers prevented the defense from doing anything to disrupt the play).
<!-- begin inline 8 --><!-- begin player card --> Ronnie Brown

#23 RB
Miami Dolphins

2010 STATS

• Rush200
• Yds734
• TD5
• Rec33
• Yds242
• TD0

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 8 -->Since running backs usually gain around 1 yard per attempt on plays with poor blocking, it is paramount that they post quality yardage totals on good blocking attempts.


This was far from Brown's forte last year, as he tallied only 5.3 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA). That figure was tied for second-to-last in the league among running backs with 100 or more total rushing attempts.


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3. RB Cedric Benson

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Cedric Benson

#32 RB
Cincinnati Bengals

2010 STATS

• Rush321
• Yds1111
• TD7
• Rec28
• Yds178
• TD1

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 9 -->Benson did not fare much better than Brown in GBYPA, as his 5.7 mark ranked ninth-worst for runners with 100 or more carries. Add his recent arrest on charges of assault -- and the accompanying suspension that could go along with that if Benson is found guilty -- and it becomes clear why signing him could be a low-percentage move.


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2. QB Donovan McNabb

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Donovan McNabb

#5 QB
Washington Redskins

2010 STATS

• Att472
• Comp275
• Yds3377
• TD14
• Int15
• Rat77.1

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 10 -->He'll be 35 years old this season, has missed time due to injury in all but two of the past six seasons and has had well-publicized run-ins with each of his past two head coaches. Throw in mediocre metrics last year (7.1 overall YPA, tied with Colt McCoy for 16th in that category) and the media frenzy that will likely occur wherever he ends up, and he appears to be a risk even as a short-term solution.


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1. QB Kevin Kolb



Eagles head coach Andy Reid knows how to get his quarterbacks to effectively manage their risk-taking tendencies. For proof, consider the fact that when McNabb left Philadelphia, he did so with the third-lowest interception percentage in NFL history.
<!-- begin inline 11 --><!-- begin player card --> Kevin Kolb

#4 QB
Philadelphia Eagles

2010 STATS

• Att189
• Comp115
• Yds1197
• TD7
• Int7
• Rat76.1

<!-- end player card --><!-- end inline 11 -->Kolb has been under Reid's tutelage for four years now, yet he still hasn't been able to get his risk-taking under control. His 4.0 percent bad-decision rate (defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads to a turnover or a near-turnover) was tied for the third-highest mark in the league.


If Reid could not coach this tendency out of Kolb, it is hard to believe any other coach will be able to do so. Put that together with the high contract and draft pick prices he is all but certain to command and it makes Kolb the riskiest acquisition of the 2011 offseason.