Ranking 2011 prospects: Nos. 11-25
Matt Flynn, Ed Dickson and Chris Ivory among those expected to break out
By Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
Want to be a great NFL organization? Find talent in places where other teams don't. It's one thing to find a great player in the first round of the draft, where talent is unquestioned and success is more a question of scheme and fit than anything else. When teams supplement success in the first round with great work on the final day of the draft and in rookie free agency, they create advantages up and down the roster that other teams simply can't compete with.
Take last year's Green Bay Packers. Thanks to a bevy of injuries, the Packers were forced to plug players with little or no experience into key roles during their title run. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson did a lot of the heavy lifting, but the Packers got significant contributions in 2011 from a group of late-round picks, undrafted free agents and practice squad favorites. Thanks to guys like James Starks, Andrew Quarless, Frank Zombo and Erik Walden, the Packers didn't skip many beats when they lost prominent talent on either side of the ball.
Their opponent in the Super Bowl was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who got their own set of contributions from players on the bottom of the roster. In addition to former Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (an undrafted free agent), an almost comical amount of injuries to their offensive line left the Steelers starting players like undrafted free agent Doug Legursky. And, of course, arguably the best Steelers player in the Super Bowl was the player who ranked No. 1 on our Top 25 Prospects list last year: wide receiver Mike Wallace.
Wallace's breakout 1,257-yard season wasn't the only hit on our list from last year. Running back Arian Foster (19th) led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, while Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw (14th) took over as a starter and exceeded 1,200 yards. On the other side of the ball, Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson (23rd) quietly produced 11.5 sacks, exceeding the production of the guy whose job he inherited -- Julius Peppers -- by 3.5 sacks.
Of course, nobody's perfect. The long-awaited breakout season from Jacob Ford (No. 2) never came, with Jason Babin taking his job and picking up 12.5 sacks. At least Ford made his team; cornerback Justin Tryon (No. 5) was traded away for a seventh-round pick, and tight end Marquez Branson (24th) was cut by the lowly Broncos.
For the uninitiated, this list is not like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL draft, there's not much utility in listing them here. Instead, we use a combination of statistics, measurables, context and expected role to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2011 and beyond. To focus on these players, we limit the pool to guys who fit the following criteria:
• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as a college free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2008 and 2010
• Fewer than five career games started
• Still on a rookie contract
Today we're bringing you Nos. 11-25 on our list, along with some guys who were honorable mentions. Tomorrow, we'll look at the top 10. On Thursday, we'll wrap up the series by ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent.
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25. David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills
Our last cut in turning the Top 26 into a Top 25 last year was WR Steve Johnson of the Bills; while Johnson was best-known for his drop against the Steelers, he had quite the breakout season. We're not going to make the same mistake twice. While the Bills aren't exactly known for having an explosive passing game, Nelson could help make things easier for Johnson and Lee Evans by serving as an effective option out of the slot. Nelson finished his season with touchdowns in three straight games before suffering a season-ending rib injury against the Patriots. With the Bills likely to spend another season trailing in most of their games, Nelson should see a lot of time in three-wide sets.
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24. Stevenson Sylvester, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
<OFFER>The Steelers don't generally put rookies right into the lineup, at least on defense. They give players one or two years on special teams or in part-time roles while they can learn how the system works. Despite playing mostly special teams last year, this 2010 fifth-round pick from Utah has been set up as the heir apparent to 36-year-old inside linebacker James Farrior. Sylvester is an aggressive, high-motor player, although he dropped in the draft because scouts felt he was somewhat undersized (then again, 6-foot-2, 231 pounds is not much different from Lawrence Timmons). Pittsburgh linebackers coach Keith Butler has praised Sylvester's feel for blitzes, an important part of playing inside linebacker in coordinator Dick LeBeau's defense.
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23. Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
A SackSEER favorite, Te'o-Nesheim spent most of his rookie year on special teams. In the meaningless Week 17 game, though, the Eagles gave him a start at defensive end and let him just rush Stephen McGee to his heart's content. He finished the game with a sack and a quarterback hurry while holding up effectively against the run. He'll be in the rotation at defensive end this year for legendary defensive line coach Jim Washburn. The hope is that Washburn can do for Te'o-Nesheim what he did for another high-motor defensive end: Kyle Vanden Bosch.
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22. Donald Butler, LB, San Diego Chargers
Butler is the only player on this list yet to take an NFL snap, owing to a torn Achilles tendon that ended his rookie year before it started. Heading into last year, the third-round pick was talked about as a potential starter at inside linebacker, which has been a troublesome position for the Chargers to fill over the past few seasons. The team could use his David Harris-style play against the run, and while the Achilles tear might slow him down at the beginning of the season, don't be surprised if he's starting by the end of the year.
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21. Blair White, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Let's make this clear: White isn't a great player. He's a decent wide receiver with good size who happens to be in the best offense for a player with his skill set. And while he's currently fifth on the depth chart at wideout, he's behind two players (Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez) with severe injury issues, and a third guy (Pierre Garcon) who can be wildly inconsistent from play to play. In other words, if everything goes right, White could carve out a very meaningful role in one of the league's best passing attacks. And the odds of things going right for him are higher than they are for any other fifth wideout in football.
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20. Doug Legursky, OL, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the many Steelers reserves to step in on the offensive line during the regular season, Legursky was thrust into the national spotlight as the replacement for the injured Maurkice Pouncey in Super Bowl XLV. Despite expectations that he would struggle mightily against the Packers' frequently dominant front three, Legursky had a solid day in the biggest game of his career. At the very least, he's a versatile reserve with steel nerves. He could compete for a starting spot at guard in training camp this season.
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19. Ed Dickson, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With Todd Heap's career as a starter winding down, the Ravens drafted Dickson and Dennis Pitta in 2010, hoping that one of them would develop into Heap's replacement. So far, Dickson looks like the better of the two, having stepped into the starting role while Heap missed time with an ankle injury at the end of last season. Dickson is a naturally a speedy tight end with good hands that remains a project as a blocker. Expect his role in the passing game to increase in 2011, with the hopes that he'll take over as the starter in 2012.
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18. Desmond Bryant, DT, Oakland Raiders
A Harvard graduate playing for the Raiders is, on its face, comical. Getting past the fish-out-of-water jokes might be tough, but Bryant has emerged as a valuable rotation player on one of the league's best defensive lines. Twenty-one tackles don't seem all that impressive, but Bryant showed an impressive ability to penetrate and make plays in the backfield, including six defeats and 2.5 sacks.
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17. Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints
After injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, the Saints were forced to hand over the reins of their running game to Ivory, an undrafted free agent out of Tiffin University. Ivory promptly produced a 59 percent success rate, the best of any back in football, on his 137 carries. Although he offered nothing as a receiver and wasn't a great blocker, his contributions as a runner for the league-minimum salary were nothing short of extraordinary. He needs to improve on the small stuff and work on holding onto the ball (35 touches per fumble just won't cut it), but he should be part of an above-average rotation at halfback starting now.
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16. Erik Walden, LB, Green Bay Packers
Walden wasn't even the first afterthought to show up at linebacker for the Packers; Frank Zombo won a roster spot in training camp and then became a starter, only to go down with a knee injury in Week 14 that kept him out until the Super Bowl. That gave Walden, a veteran of four NFL teams in two years, a spot in the starting lineup. All Walden did was win Defensive Player of the Week in the season-ending win over the Bears, thanks to a three-sack performance. He served as an effective spy in the Packers' nickel package, and if he doesn't make the team this year, he'll bounce back somewhere as a linebacker specializing in pass defense.
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15. James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers
A speed score favorite (106.3) taken in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, Starks spent most of the year as a rumor tossed around by Packers fans desirous of an effective replacement for the injured Ryan Grant. And while his eventual run as the starter during Week 17 and the playoffs was a success owing partly to huge carry totals and middling run defenses, he did show the potential to be an eventual starter at the pro level. In 2011, he should be part of a one-two combination with Grant, although he could lose snaps to nominal third back Brandon Jackson because of the latter's ability as a pass-blocker.
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14. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sanders inherited the slot receiver role vacated by Mike Wallace before the season, impressed coaches with his blocking ability during camp, and then emerged as a valuable part of the team's three-wideout sets during the second half of the season. Forty-five of his 50 targets came after Week 9, and he had just one target all year in a two-wideout set. He didn't show the promise Wallace did as a rookie, but Sanders is on pace to become the No. 2 two wideout behind him once Hines Ward bows out.
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13. Andre Roberts, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals' coaching staff became more and more enamored with this third-round pick as the season went on; by the final two weeks, he was basically playing ahead of starter Steve Breaston. With Breaston gone, Roberts' speed, athleticism and health should give him the No. 2 receiver job ahead of Early Doucet. His poor rookie DVOA rating of minus-39.7 percent can be blamed in large part on last year's awful quarterback situation. Ten of the 25 incomplete passes to Roberts were marked by our game charters as "overthrown," including a quick hitch pass behind the line of scrimmage.
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12. Derek Hardman, OL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's hard enough to be a rookie in the NFL. For Hardman, it was harder than most. After being cut in training camp and falling to the practice squad, he was added to the active roster during the season once injuries started to beset the Bucs. After guard Davin Joseph went down with a foot injury, Hardman was placed into the lineup to replace him. One problem: As a college tackle, he had never played guard before. Hardman ended up doing a fine job in Joseph's stead, and he'll be in the mix for a starting job somewhere along the line next season.
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11. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers
Sure, he got to play with some of the best offensive talent in football during that narrow loss to the Patriots, but remember: He was replacing Aaron Rodgers. A guy who could do a reasonable impression of Rodgers in most weeks would be worth a lot of money, and while he struggled in relief of Rodgers against the Detroit Lions, Flynn showed more poise than anyone could have expected against the Patriots before that ugly final drive. Even if he doesn't take another snap for the Packers, he'll end up competing for a starting job somewhere down the line.
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Honorable Mention
Danario Alexander, WR, Rams
Kevin Barnes, CB, Redskins
Kam Chancellor, S, Seahawks
Keenan Clayton, LB, Eagles
Kaluka Maiava, LB, Browns
Evan Moore, TE, Browns
Ropati Pitoitua, DE, Jets
Myron Pryor, DT, Patriots
Andrew Quarless, TE, Packers
Andy Studebaker, LB, Chiefs
Matt Flynn, Ed Dickson and Chris Ivory among those expected to break out
By Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
Want to be a great NFL organization? Find talent in places where other teams don't. It's one thing to find a great player in the first round of the draft, where talent is unquestioned and success is more a question of scheme and fit than anything else. When teams supplement success in the first round with great work on the final day of the draft and in rookie free agency, they create advantages up and down the roster that other teams simply can't compete with.
Take last year's Green Bay Packers. Thanks to a bevy of injuries, the Packers were forced to plug players with little or no experience into key roles during their title run. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson did a lot of the heavy lifting, but the Packers got significant contributions in 2011 from a group of late-round picks, undrafted free agents and practice squad favorites. Thanks to guys like James Starks, Andrew Quarless, Frank Zombo and Erik Walden, the Packers didn't skip many beats when they lost prominent talent on either side of the ball.
Their opponent in the Super Bowl was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who got their own set of contributions from players on the bottom of the roster. In addition to former Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (an undrafted free agent), an almost comical amount of injuries to their offensive line left the Steelers starting players like undrafted free agent Doug Legursky. And, of course, arguably the best Steelers player in the Super Bowl was the player who ranked No. 1 on our Top 25 Prospects list last year: wide receiver Mike Wallace.
Wallace's breakout 1,257-yard season wasn't the only hit on our list from last year. Running back Arian Foster (19th) led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, while Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw (14th) took over as a starter and exceeded 1,200 yards. On the other side of the ball, Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson (23rd) quietly produced 11.5 sacks, exceeding the production of the guy whose job he inherited -- Julius Peppers -- by 3.5 sacks.
Of course, nobody's perfect. The long-awaited breakout season from Jacob Ford (No. 2) never came, with Jason Babin taking his job and picking up 12.5 sacks. At least Ford made his team; cornerback Justin Tryon (No. 5) was traded away for a seventh-round pick, and tight end Marquez Branson (24th) was cut by the lowly Broncos.
For the uninitiated, this list is not like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL draft, there's not much utility in listing them here. Instead, we use a combination of statistics, measurables, context and expected role to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2011 and beyond. To focus on these players, we limit the pool to guys who fit the following criteria:
• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as a college free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2008 and 2010
• Fewer than five career games started
• Still on a rookie contract
Today we're bringing you Nos. 11-25 on our list, along with some guys who were honorable mentions. Tomorrow, we'll look at the top 10. On Thursday, we'll wrap up the series by ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent.
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25. David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills
Our last cut in turning the Top 26 into a Top 25 last year was WR Steve Johnson of the Bills; while Johnson was best-known for his drop against the Steelers, he had quite the breakout season. We're not going to make the same mistake twice. While the Bills aren't exactly known for having an explosive passing game, Nelson could help make things easier for Johnson and Lee Evans by serving as an effective option out of the slot. Nelson finished his season with touchdowns in three straight games before suffering a season-ending rib injury against the Patriots. With the Bills likely to spend another season trailing in most of their games, Nelson should see a lot of time in three-wide sets.
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24. Stevenson Sylvester, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
<OFFER>The Steelers don't generally put rookies right into the lineup, at least on defense. They give players one or two years on special teams or in part-time roles while they can learn how the system works. Despite playing mostly special teams last year, this 2010 fifth-round pick from Utah has been set up as the heir apparent to 36-year-old inside linebacker James Farrior. Sylvester is an aggressive, high-motor player, although he dropped in the draft because scouts felt he was somewhat undersized (then again, 6-foot-2, 231 pounds is not much different from Lawrence Timmons). Pittsburgh linebackers coach Keith Butler has praised Sylvester's feel for blitzes, an important part of playing inside linebacker in coordinator Dick LeBeau's defense.
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23. Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
A SackSEER favorite, Te'o-Nesheim spent most of his rookie year on special teams. In the meaningless Week 17 game, though, the Eagles gave him a start at defensive end and let him just rush Stephen McGee to his heart's content. He finished the game with a sack and a quarterback hurry while holding up effectively against the run. He'll be in the rotation at defensive end this year for legendary defensive line coach Jim Washburn. The hope is that Washburn can do for Te'o-Nesheim what he did for another high-motor defensive end: Kyle Vanden Bosch.
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22. Donald Butler, LB, San Diego Chargers
Butler is the only player on this list yet to take an NFL snap, owing to a torn Achilles tendon that ended his rookie year before it started. Heading into last year, the third-round pick was talked about as a potential starter at inside linebacker, which has been a troublesome position for the Chargers to fill over the past few seasons. The team could use his David Harris-style play against the run, and while the Achilles tear might slow him down at the beginning of the season, don't be surprised if he's starting by the end of the year.
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21. Blair White, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Let's make this clear: White isn't a great player. He's a decent wide receiver with good size who happens to be in the best offense for a player with his skill set. And while he's currently fifth on the depth chart at wideout, he's behind two players (Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez) with severe injury issues, and a third guy (Pierre Garcon) who can be wildly inconsistent from play to play. In other words, if everything goes right, White could carve out a very meaningful role in one of the league's best passing attacks. And the odds of things going right for him are higher than they are for any other fifth wideout in football.
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20. Doug Legursky, OL, Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the many Steelers reserves to step in on the offensive line during the regular season, Legursky was thrust into the national spotlight as the replacement for the injured Maurkice Pouncey in Super Bowl XLV. Despite expectations that he would struggle mightily against the Packers' frequently dominant front three, Legursky had a solid day in the biggest game of his career. At the very least, he's a versatile reserve with steel nerves. He could compete for a starting spot at guard in training camp this season.
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19. Ed Dickson, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With Todd Heap's career as a starter winding down, the Ravens drafted Dickson and Dennis Pitta in 2010, hoping that one of them would develop into Heap's replacement. So far, Dickson looks like the better of the two, having stepped into the starting role while Heap missed time with an ankle injury at the end of last season. Dickson is a naturally a speedy tight end with good hands that remains a project as a blocker. Expect his role in the passing game to increase in 2011, with the hopes that he'll take over as the starter in 2012.
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18. Desmond Bryant, DT, Oakland Raiders
A Harvard graduate playing for the Raiders is, on its face, comical. Getting past the fish-out-of-water jokes might be tough, but Bryant has emerged as a valuable rotation player on one of the league's best defensive lines. Twenty-one tackles don't seem all that impressive, but Bryant showed an impressive ability to penetrate and make plays in the backfield, including six defeats and 2.5 sacks.
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17. Chris Ivory, RB, New Orleans Saints
After injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, the Saints were forced to hand over the reins of their running game to Ivory, an undrafted free agent out of Tiffin University. Ivory promptly produced a 59 percent success rate, the best of any back in football, on his 137 carries. Although he offered nothing as a receiver and wasn't a great blocker, his contributions as a runner for the league-minimum salary were nothing short of extraordinary. He needs to improve on the small stuff and work on holding onto the ball (35 touches per fumble just won't cut it), but he should be part of an above-average rotation at halfback starting now.
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16. Erik Walden, LB, Green Bay Packers
Walden wasn't even the first afterthought to show up at linebacker for the Packers; Frank Zombo won a roster spot in training camp and then became a starter, only to go down with a knee injury in Week 14 that kept him out until the Super Bowl. That gave Walden, a veteran of four NFL teams in two years, a spot in the starting lineup. All Walden did was win Defensive Player of the Week in the season-ending win over the Bears, thanks to a three-sack performance. He served as an effective spy in the Packers' nickel package, and if he doesn't make the team this year, he'll bounce back somewhere as a linebacker specializing in pass defense.
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15. James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers
A speed score favorite (106.3) taken in the sixth round of the 2010 draft, Starks spent most of the year as a rumor tossed around by Packers fans desirous of an effective replacement for the injured Ryan Grant. And while his eventual run as the starter during Week 17 and the playoffs was a success owing partly to huge carry totals and middling run defenses, he did show the potential to be an eventual starter at the pro level. In 2011, he should be part of a one-two combination with Grant, although he could lose snaps to nominal third back Brandon Jackson because of the latter's ability as a pass-blocker.
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14. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Sanders inherited the slot receiver role vacated by Mike Wallace before the season, impressed coaches with his blocking ability during camp, and then emerged as a valuable part of the team's three-wideout sets during the second half of the season. Forty-five of his 50 targets came after Week 9, and he had just one target all year in a two-wideout set. He didn't show the promise Wallace did as a rookie, but Sanders is on pace to become the No. 2 two wideout behind him once Hines Ward bows out.
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13. Andre Roberts, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals' coaching staff became more and more enamored with this third-round pick as the season went on; by the final two weeks, he was basically playing ahead of starter Steve Breaston. With Breaston gone, Roberts' speed, athleticism and health should give him the No. 2 receiver job ahead of Early Doucet. His poor rookie DVOA rating of minus-39.7 percent can be blamed in large part on last year's awful quarterback situation. Ten of the 25 incomplete passes to Roberts were marked by our game charters as "overthrown," including a quick hitch pass behind the line of scrimmage.
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12. Derek Hardman, OL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's hard enough to be a rookie in the NFL. For Hardman, it was harder than most. After being cut in training camp and falling to the practice squad, he was added to the active roster during the season once injuries started to beset the Bucs. After guard Davin Joseph went down with a foot injury, Hardman was placed into the lineup to replace him. One problem: As a college tackle, he had never played guard before. Hardman ended up doing a fine job in Joseph's stead, and he'll be in the mix for a starting job somewhere along the line next season.
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11. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers
Sure, he got to play with some of the best offensive talent in football during that narrow loss to the Patriots, but remember: He was replacing Aaron Rodgers. A guy who could do a reasonable impression of Rodgers in most weeks would be worth a lot of money, and while he struggled in relief of Rodgers against the Detroit Lions, Flynn showed more poise than anyone could have expected against the Patriots before that ugly final drive. Even if he doesn't take another snap for the Packers, he'll end up competing for a starting job somewhere down the line.
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Honorable Mention
Danario Alexander, WR, Rams
Kevin Barnes, CB, Redskins
Kam Chancellor, S, Seahawks
Keenan Clayton, LB, Eagles
Kaluka Maiava, LB, Browns
Evan Moore, TE, Browns
Ropati Pitoitua, DE, Jets
Myron Pryor, DT, Patriots
Andrew Quarless, TE, Packers
Andy Studebaker, LB, Chiefs
