Yesterday 0 1 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 41 1 -2.04 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 142 168 2 -9.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Florida +103 over WASHINGTON
The Nats have lost three in a row and five of six and they always lose to the Marlins. With Jordan Zimmerman pitching yesterday they were smoked to the tune of 11-2 and they’ve now lost 47 of the last 65 games against the Fish. It gets better. The Nationals strike out more often than every team in the majors with the exception of San Diego and that bodes well here for Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has increased his average fastball velocity by two MPH over the last two months--more than any other SP--by using his lower body more. He has been excellent over the last month with 28 k’s in 31 innings, four walks and a 2.87 ERA (3.21 xERA). Washington has lost Livan Hernandez’s last four starts. Hernandez has allowed 16 runs over that span covering 22 innings. They’ve also lost 12 of his last 15 starts. Most recently, we’ve seen a big correction and a deserved correction in Hernandez’s road numbers. At home, however, he’s 4-2 with a 3.09 ERA. That’s good news because he’s the same pitcher with below average skills that is going to see a correction in his numbers at home. Additionally, the Marlins are warming up again with three straight wins in which they’ve scored 24 runs. After an abysmal June, Florida’s bats have really picked it up lately. The Marlins’ .624 OPS last month was last in the NL by more than 50 points. This month, their .764 OPS is third in the Senior Circuit and they also led the league in walks over that same span. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +160 over ATLANTA
The Braves pulled one out in 19 innings last night and after losing the opener 3-0 they won’t mind a bit seeing the Pirates leave town. Paul Maholm faces a Braves squad that owns the worst line (.211 BA/.284 OPS/.341 SLG) against southpaws in the majors. In five career starts versus Atlanta, Maholm is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA covering 33 frames. At this price and against this lineup v lefties, he and the Buccos are way undervalued. Jair Jurrjens has lost one MPH on his fastball over the last month and that might explain his last two starts in which he was shelled for 10 runs over 11 innings. If he can't sustain a 90 MPH fastball, he will have little room for error, especially once his 27% hit rate and 80% strand rate correct a bit. Remember, leg issues (hamstring, torn meniscus) sidelined him for May, June and most of September last season and fatigue and pain could be playing a part in his recent struggles. Good sell high target. Play: Pittsburgh +160 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +141 over Chicago
Zack Greinke hasn’t won since June 21 and that alone is crazy. Greinke also has a 4.84 ERA and that, too, is a number that is completely unjust, as Greinke still possesses the same skills as when he was dominating AL batters. Greinke’s 4.84 ERA is 100% bad luck. His skills are absolutely stellar with a 2.53 xERA, 114 k’s in 87 innings, 18 walks, and 180 BPV** (for esplanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). These are elite skills; it's only his ridiculous 37%/56% hit%/strand% that are holding him back. Over his last three starts, Grienke has posted an ERA of 1.89 and he should dominate this line-up. Carlos Zambrano is a pitcher in trouble. He was whacked for eight runs by the Fish two starts back and in his last start his two earned runs allowed against the Astros was a complete mirage. Houston loaded the bases with no outs in both the first and second innings and scored once. He was in jams all game long and squeezed out of them by the hair on his chinny-chin–chin. Zambrano has faced the Brewers twice already this year and he has a 6.75 ERA over those two starts. That’s when he was pitching a whole lot better than he is now and the Crew are so much better at home. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +141 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +187 over BOSTON
Kansas City +180 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings)
Every fifth day John Lackey gets spanked and there’s no reason to believe that’ll change here. Lackey has five quality starts in 16 attempts and two of them came against the Mariners. Lackey has more wins than Zack Greinke and that’s only because the Red Sox come to the park knowing they have to score about 10 runs when this stiff pitches. At Fenway, Lackey has an ERA of 7.68 and while the Royals lose a lot of games, they’re still dangerous because they can score runs. You might see Lackey’s 1.89 ERA over his last three starts and believe he’s returning to good form. Don’t buy it because it was all luck, as he allowed 18 hits in 12 innings against the M’s and Rays and was a base hit away from being yanked on numerous occasions. Lackey has been running on fumes, luck and run support all season long and this take-back against him is a must play. Bruce Chen is 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA. In his last four starts over the past month his ERA is 2.16. Last year Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 140 IP. 12 wins in 23 games started, while rest of KC’s starters won 35 in 139 games started. So, Chen = '72 Steve Carlton? Not exactly but he wins games and he’s consistent and in 100 games versus John Lackey at this price we would back Chen 100 times. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +187 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Kansas City +180 (Risking 1 unit).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
Last 30 Days 34 41 1 -2.04 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 142 168 2 -9.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Florida +103 over WASHINGTON
The Nats have lost three in a row and five of six and they always lose to the Marlins. With Jordan Zimmerman pitching yesterday they were smoked to the tune of 11-2 and they’ve now lost 47 of the last 65 games against the Fish. It gets better. The Nationals strike out more often than every team in the majors with the exception of San Diego and that bodes well here for Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has increased his average fastball velocity by two MPH over the last two months--more than any other SP--by using his lower body more. He has been excellent over the last month with 28 k’s in 31 innings, four walks and a 2.87 ERA (3.21 xERA). Washington has lost Livan Hernandez’s last four starts. Hernandez has allowed 16 runs over that span covering 22 innings. They’ve also lost 12 of his last 15 starts. Most recently, we’ve seen a big correction and a deserved correction in Hernandez’s road numbers. At home, however, he’s 4-2 with a 3.09 ERA. That’s good news because he’s the same pitcher with below average skills that is going to see a correction in his numbers at home. Additionally, the Marlins are warming up again with three straight wins in which they’ve scored 24 runs. After an abysmal June, Florida’s bats have really picked it up lately. The Marlins’ .624 OPS last month was last in the NL by more than 50 points. This month, their .764 OPS is third in the Senior Circuit and they also led the league in walks over that same span. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +103 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +160 over ATLANTA
The Braves pulled one out in 19 innings last night and after losing the opener 3-0 they won’t mind a bit seeing the Pirates leave town. Paul Maholm faces a Braves squad that owns the worst line (.211 BA/.284 OPS/.341 SLG) against southpaws in the majors. In five career starts versus Atlanta, Maholm is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA covering 33 frames. At this price and against this lineup v lefties, he and the Buccos are way undervalued. Jair Jurrjens has lost one MPH on his fastball over the last month and that might explain his last two starts in which he was shelled for 10 runs over 11 innings. If he can't sustain a 90 MPH fastball, he will have little room for error, especially once his 27% hit rate and 80% strand rate correct a bit. Remember, leg issues (hamstring, torn meniscus) sidelined him for May, June and most of September last season and fatigue and pain could be playing a part in his recent struggles. Good sell high target. Play: Pittsburgh +160 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +141 over Chicago
Zack Greinke hasn’t won since June 21 and that alone is crazy. Greinke also has a 4.84 ERA and that, too, is a number that is completely unjust, as Greinke still possesses the same skills as when he was dominating AL batters. Greinke’s 4.84 ERA is 100% bad luck. His skills are absolutely stellar with a 2.53 xERA, 114 k’s in 87 innings, 18 walks, and 180 BPV** (for esplanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). These are elite skills; it's only his ridiculous 37%/56% hit%/strand% that are holding him back. Over his last three starts, Grienke has posted an ERA of 1.89 and he should dominate this line-up. Carlos Zambrano is a pitcher in trouble. He was whacked for eight runs by the Fish two starts back and in his last start his two earned runs allowed against the Astros was a complete mirage. Houston loaded the bases with no outs in both the first and second innings and scored once. He was in jams all game long and squeezed out of them by the hair on his chinny-chin–chin. Zambrano has faced the Brewers twice already this year and he has a 6.75 ERA over those two starts. That’s when he was pitching a whole lot better than he is now and the Crew are so much better at home. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +141 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +187 over BOSTON
Kansas City +180 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings)
Every fifth day John Lackey gets spanked and there’s no reason to believe that’ll change here. Lackey has five quality starts in 16 attempts and two of them came against the Mariners. Lackey has more wins than Zack Greinke and that’s only because the Red Sox come to the park knowing they have to score about 10 runs when this stiff pitches. At Fenway, Lackey has an ERA of 7.68 and while the Royals lose a lot of games, they’re still dangerous because they can score runs. You might see Lackey’s 1.89 ERA over his last three starts and believe he’s returning to good form. Don’t buy it because it was all luck, as he allowed 18 hits in 12 innings against the M’s and Rays and was a base hit away from being yanked on numerous occasions. Lackey has been running on fumes, luck and run support all season long and this take-back against him is a must play. Bruce Chen is 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA. In his last four starts over the past month his ERA is 2.16. Last year Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 140 IP. 12 wins in 23 games started, while rest of KC’s starters won 35 in 139 games started. So, Chen = '72 Steve Carlton? Not exactly but he wins games and he’s consistent and in 100 games versus John Lackey at this price we would back Chen 100 times. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +187 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Kansas City +180 (Risking 1 unit).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
