Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.88 Units
Last 30 Days 35 43 1 -3.68 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 144 170 2 -8.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO –1½ +127 over Baltimore
Blue Jay fans should be thankful that Tony LaRussa thinks he’s smarter than everyone else on the planet. The Jays stole Colby Rasmus, a five-tool talent that was in that genius’s doghouse all year and as a result, he didn’t play as much as he should’ve been (you don’t show up a genius, EVER!). Rasmus is a top-tier talent that will immediately be inserted into the line-up everyday, including his Blue Jay debut for this one. In the end, the Jays dealt Jason Frasor, Marc Rzepczynski, Zach Stewart and Octavio Dotel for Colby Rasmus (and Mark Teahen’s $7 million contract). That’s two veteran relievers on one-year deals, a young lefty with #5 starter potential, a few million in cash and one not so good prospect. That’s it, for a potential superstar center fielder. What makes this even crazier is that Alex Anthopolous seems to be forming a habit of making great deals like this one. The Jays have not unloaded on the Orioles the past two nights but their chances of doing so are good here because their due bucket to score a whole bunch of runs is overflowing and they couldn’t have handpicked a better starter to unleash against. Brad Bergeson won his last start but hasn’t won back-to-back games in close to a full year. Prior to that start against the light-hitting Angels, Bergeson’s ERA since May 14 was 7.71. Bergeson has poor skills right across the board that includes a horrible strikeout rate, a fly-ball bias profile and the inability to win games (the O’s are 2-9 in his 11 starts). He’s been shuffled between the pen and rotation and if the O’s had some healthy bodies he would be in back where he belongs – in the minors. Carlos Villanueva has a 3.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 90 innings pitched. Over his last six starts, Villanueva has faced the Rangers in Texas, the Yanks, Cleveland, Philly, the Cards and the Reds in Cincinnati. Only once (against the Yanks) did he allow more than three earned runs and now he takes a step down in class against a beatable Orioles club that can’t go more than a few games without betting blown out. Play: Toronto –1½ +127 (Risking 2 units).
OAKLAND –1 +119/or (-121) over Tampa Bay
If you don’t have the option of laying one run and taking back 19 cents than the recommendation is to lay the 21 cents because the A’s are undervalued here against a guest that is just going through the motions right now. We’re witnessing the total collapse of the Rays at the moment and it’s not over. It’s like every player on that team is more interested in the trade front than they are in what’s happening on the diamond. B.J. Upton has his backs packed already. In any event the A’s are scorching hot and against Hellickson, Price and Shields in the first three games of this series they outscored TB by a combined 26-10. The A’s have been red-hot at the plate since the all-star break and take a big step down in class when facing Wade Davis. Davis has a poor strikeout rate (50 in 109 IP), a poor GB/LD/FB profile of 33%/20%/47% and he’s getting progressively worse as the year wears on. Over the past 31 days, Davis has a WHIP of 1.73 to go along with a 5.39 ERA. Rich Harden will make just his fifth start of the year. The A’s have won three of his four starts with his only loss coming in Texas. In the other three starts, Harden allowed three runs or less and that includes his last start in the Bronx. He has 23 k’s in 23 IP and a BAA of .239. Play: Oakland –1 +119 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 35 43 1 -3.68 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 144 170 2 -8.12 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
TORONTO –1½ +127 over Baltimore
Blue Jay fans should be thankful that Tony LaRussa thinks he’s smarter than everyone else on the planet. The Jays stole Colby Rasmus, a five-tool talent that was in that genius’s doghouse all year and as a result, he didn’t play as much as he should’ve been (you don’t show up a genius, EVER!). Rasmus is a top-tier talent that will immediately be inserted into the line-up everyday, including his Blue Jay debut for this one. In the end, the Jays dealt Jason Frasor, Marc Rzepczynski, Zach Stewart and Octavio Dotel for Colby Rasmus (and Mark Teahen’s $7 million contract). That’s two veteran relievers on one-year deals, a young lefty with #5 starter potential, a few million in cash and one not so good prospect. That’s it, for a potential superstar center fielder. What makes this even crazier is that Alex Anthopolous seems to be forming a habit of making great deals like this one. The Jays have not unloaded on the Orioles the past two nights but their chances of doing so are good here because their due bucket to score a whole bunch of runs is overflowing and they couldn’t have handpicked a better starter to unleash against. Brad Bergeson won his last start but hasn’t won back-to-back games in close to a full year. Prior to that start against the light-hitting Angels, Bergeson’s ERA since May 14 was 7.71. Bergeson has poor skills right across the board that includes a horrible strikeout rate, a fly-ball bias profile and the inability to win games (the O’s are 2-9 in his 11 starts). He’s been shuffled between the pen and rotation and if the O’s had some healthy bodies he would be in back where he belongs – in the minors. Carlos Villanueva has a 3.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 90 innings pitched. Over his last six starts, Villanueva has faced the Rangers in Texas, the Yanks, Cleveland, Philly, the Cards and the Reds in Cincinnati. Only once (against the Yanks) did he allow more than three earned runs and now he takes a step down in class against a beatable Orioles club that can’t go more than a few games without betting blown out. Play: Toronto –1½ +127 (Risking 2 units).
OAKLAND –1 +119/or (-121) over Tampa Bay
If you don’t have the option of laying one run and taking back 19 cents than the recommendation is to lay the 21 cents because the A’s are undervalued here against a guest that is just going through the motions right now. We’re witnessing the total collapse of the Rays at the moment and it’s not over. It’s like every player on that team is more interested in the trade front than they are in what’s happening on the diamond. B.J. Upton has his backs packed already. In any event the A’s are scorching hot and against Hellickson, Price and Shields in the first three games of this series they outscored TB by a combined 26-10. The A’s have been red-hot at the plate since the all-star break and take a big step down in class when facing Wade Davis. Davis has a poor strikeout rate (50 in 109 IP), a poor GB/LD/FB profile of 33%/20%/47% and he’s getting progressively worse as the year wears on. Over the past 31 days, Davis has a WHIP of 1.73 to go along with a 5.39 ERA. Rich Harden will make just his fifth start of the year. The A’s have won three of his four starts with his only loss coming in Texas. In the other three starts, Harden allowed three runs or less and that includes his last start in the Bronx. He has 23 k’s in 23 IP and a BAA of .239. Play: Oakland –1 +119 (Risking 2 units).
