Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.54 Units
Last 30 Days 35 40 1 +2.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 145 171 2 -7.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets –1 +111/04 -114 over WASHINGTON
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run than the recommendation is to lay the 14 cents with the Mets. The Mets are hot while the Nats are cold with five straight losses and playing hot v cold is rarely a bad idea. Next we have the Nationals giving Chien-Ming Wang a chance and that’s less likely to work then the Cubbies Doug Davis experiment. Ya’all might remember Wang’s last major-league experience back in ’09 when he was run out of the Bronx because he literally couldn’t retire a batter. Trust us on this one, the Nats didn’t find lightning in a bottle with this stiff. Making two starts for Syracuse of the International League, Wang allowed 15 hits and eight runs in 10 innings. With rising control issues, rising BAA, rising hr/f ratio and other concerns, about a thousand things have to go right for this science experiment to work and that’s not happening. The only way we lay off this bet is if the Mets hunted down Russ Ortiz and were starting him here and last time we checked they weren’t. Mets offense stays hot and they really should score a bunch again. Wang and Gee must start if you’re laying the one run. Wang must start while Gee doesn’t have to start if you’re laying the 14 cents. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +111 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +174 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers have scored 16 runs over their last seven games, they scored nine runs in their last three home games versus the brutal pitching staff of the Cubs and 10 days ago, in a four-game set at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Arizona, they were shutout twice. Instead of Rickie Weeks they are now forced to go with Craig Counsell and his current 0-41 streak. The Brewers bats are ice-cold with the exception of Ryan Braun. Randy Wolf is showing signs of tiring big time. The Crew have lost four of his last five starts and over that stretch he’s allowed 39 hits in 33 innings while striking out 18, walking 15 and posting a WHIP of 1.62. We’ve also seen his GB/FB ratio tilt heavily in favor of the fly-ball over that span. This is not a guy to be laying more than –180 with right now. Besides, isn’t this the time of year that the Astros get hot every season? Houston is coming off back-to-back wins over Jamie Garcia and Chris Carpenter in St. Louis. Jordan Lyles is winless in 10 starts and you have to be pretty good to remain in the rotation with a record like that. Despite being winless, his base skills have been really good. He has a xERA of 3.90 and Lyles has very good command with just 18 walks and 46 k’s in 61 frames. Lyles owns a solid history of terrific, sometimes elite command, and highly consistent control. Those are two exciting skills to see in any young pitcher, but to see them in a 20-year-old is remarkable and that first illusive win is going to happen real soon. Play: Houston +174 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +124 over ST. LOUIS
When the White Sox traded away Edwin Jackson and ultimately ended up with a reliever in Jason Frasor, one really has to wonder why they did this in the middle of a pennant race. We all know how scarce reliable starters are these days and it makes even less sense when you consider that the South Side traded away Daniel Hudson to acquire Jackson less than a year ago. Jason Frasor is good but he’s not going to be the difference between winning a pennant or not while a good starting pitcher can be. Did the White Sox staff see some serious warning signs in Edwin Jackson? That’s what it sounds like but we’ll see how that plays out over time. For now, he makes his Cardinal debut for that genius, who said there was no room for Colby Rasmus but had Cory Patterson playing left-field last night. St. Louis has lost two in a row and they’ve scored just eight runs over its past three games. When they face a good pitcher they rarely produce and they’ll face a very good one here in Matt Garza. Garza has changed his pitch mix quite a bit this year. He is throwing less fastballs but is throwing them harder. He is throwing more sliders and changeups in their place. His average fastball velocity is the fifth highest in the NL. His new pitch mix and elevated velocity has resulted in the highest strikeout rate of his career and his 3.19 xERA suggests that his sub-4.00 ERA has even more upside. This is a good stretch run target for sure. Garza has had success against the Cards, holding STL batters to a .232 BA (13-56). He has been particularly effective against Lance Berkman (2-15, .133 BA) and Matt Holliday (2-11, .182 BA) and he absolutely gives the Cubbies a great chance to win. Play: Chicago +124 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 35 40 1 +2.22 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 145 171 2 -7.58 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets –1 +111/04 -114 over WASHINGTON
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run than the recommendation is to lay the 14 cents with the Mets. The Mets are hot while the Nats are cold with five straight losses and playing hot v cold is rarely a bad idea. Next we have the Nationals giving Chien-Ming Wang a chance and that’s less likely to work then the Cubbies Doug Davis experiment. Ya’all might remember Wang’s last major-league experience back in ’09 when he was run out of the Bronx because he literally couldn’t retire a batter. Trust us on this one, the Nats didn’t find lightning in a bottle with this stiff. Making two starts for Syracuse of the International League, Wang allowed 15 hits and eight runs in 10 innings. With rising control issues, rising BAA, rising hr/f ratio and other concerns, about a thousand things have to go right for this science experiment to work and that’s not happening. The only way we lay off this bet is if the Mets hunted down Russ Ortiz and were starting him here and last time we checked they weren’t. Mets offense stays hot and they really should score a bunch again. Wang and Gee must start if you’re laying the one run. Wang must start while Gee doesn’t have to start if you’re laying the 14 cents. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +111 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +174 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers have scored 16 runs over their last seven games, they scored nine runs in their last three home games versus the brutal pitching staff of the Cubs and 10 days ago, in a four-game set at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Arizona, they were shutout twice. Instead of Rickie Weeks they are now forced to go with Craig Counsell and his current 0-41 streak. The Brewers bats are ice-cold with the exception of Ryan Braun. Randy Wolf is showing signs of tiring big time. The Crew have lost four of his last five starts and over that stretch he’s allowed 39 hits in 33 innings while striking out 18, walking 15 and posting a WHIP of 1.62. We’ve also seen his GB/FB ratio tilt heavily in favor of the fly-ball over that span. This is not a guy to be laying more than –180 with right now. Besides, isn’t this the time of year that the Astros get hot every season? Houston is coming off back-to-back wins over Jamie Garcia and Chris Carpenter in St. Louis. Jordan Lyles is winless in 10 starts and you have to be pretty good to remain in the rotation with a record like that. Despite being winless, his base skills have been really good. He has a xERA of 3.90 and Lyles has very good command with just 18 walks and 46 k’s in 61 frames. Lyles owns a solid history of terrific, sometimes elite command, and highly consistent control. Those are two exciting skills to see in any young pitcher, but to see them in a 20-year-old is remarkable and that first illusive win is going to happen real soon. Play: Houston +174 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +124 over ST. LOUIS
When the White Sox traded away Edwin Jackson and ultimately ended up with a reliever in Jason Frasor, one really has to wonder why they did this in the middle of a pennant race. We all know how scarce reliable starters are these days and it makes even less sense when you consider that the South Side traded away Daniel Hudson to acquire Jackson less than a year ago. Jason Frasor is good but he’s not going to be the difference between winning a pennant or not while a good starting pitcher can be. Did the White Sox staff see some serious warning signs in Edwin Jackson? That’s what it sounds like but we’ll see how that plays out over time. For now, he makes his Cardinal debut for that genius, who said there was no room for Colby Rasmus but had Cory Patterson playing left-field last night. St. Louis has lost two in a row and they’ve scored just eight runs over its past three games. When they face a good pitcher they rarely produce and they’ll face a very good one here in Matt Garza. Garza has changed his pitch mix quite a bit this year. He is throwing less fastballs but is throwing them harder. He is throwing more sliders and changeups in their place. His average fastball velocity is the fifth highest in the NL. His new pitch mix and elevated velocity has resulted in the highest strikeout rate of his career and his 3.19 xERA suggests that his sub-4.00 ERA has even more upside. This is a good stretch run target for sure. Garza has had success against the Cards, holding STL batters to a .232 BA (13-56). He has been particularly effective against Lance Berkman (2-15, .133 BA) and Matt Holliday (2-11, .182 BA) and he absolutely gives the Cubbies a great chance to win. Play: Chicago +124 (Risking 2 units).
