Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.78 Units
Last 30 Days 35 41 1 0.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 146 173 2 -9.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets –105 over WASHINGTON
After last night’s loss the Nationals are 9-18 since Jim Riggleman gave a new meaning to walk-off win. They had won 13 of 15 when he walked away. The Nats have also dropped six in a row and eight of their past nine games. Jason Marquis is having a decent year but his July numbers suffered a regression and August doesn’t look much better. Marquis has a BAA of .283 and a borderline WHIP of 1.42. His 3.95 ERA, up from 3.62 at the beginning of July is likely going to crash some more and return to a number that matches Marquis’ mediocre skill set. Meanwhile the Mets are seeing beach balls. They’ve scored eight runs or more in four straight road games and they’ve reached double-digits in base hits in eight straight games. Over that span of eight games the Mets have hit .324 with 23 doubles, 54 runs scores and an OBP of .414. They’ve also won five straight. R.A. Dickey is so tough. His knuckler is wickedly good because it has velocity. Dickey has an ERA of 3.74 and his xERA over the past month is 3.37. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate and he’s also striking out more batters per nine innings. The Mets are favored but they’re also underpriced. Play: N.Y. Mets –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
San Francisco +108 over CINCINNATI
Is there a pitcher in the league that’s thrown better than Madison Bumgarner over the past couple of months? We don’t think so. Bumgarner has been near flawless in 11 of his past 12 starts. In 10 starts since May 30, Bumgarner has walked one batter or less in all 10 starts while striking out 65. The Giants have won his last six starts and the scary thing is that he’s been even better on the road than he has at home. Over his last three starts covering 21.2 frames he’s walked none and struck out 19. He’s added one MPH to his fastball and two MPH to his slider this season and he’s quickly becoming one of the top five pitchers in the game, if he isn’t already. The Reds won last night in 12 but they’ve only won two straight one time since June 13-14. They’re simply not that good and its greatest weapon, the offense, has been laboring big time. In fact, the Reds have scored three earned runs or less in eight of their past 13 games and their chances of getting three or more on Bumgarner is not good. Mike Leake has a 4.60 ERA at home. The Reds have dropped his last three starts and five of his last seven starts. His strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and while he’s been mostly reliable this year, he’s been rather inconsistent at home. In any case, Leake favored over Bumgarner is bordering on ludicrous. Jump on this one early because the line can only move one way. Play: San Francisco +108 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +108 over Texas
The Rangers have five wins in 15 road starts versus left-handed starters and will face another one today in Brad Mills. Back to Mills is a minute. The Blue Jays have won 9 of 13 games at home versus lefties and they, too, will face one here in Derek Holland. Mills has spent some time in the Majors between '09 and '10, posting a 7.80 ERA in 30 innings. For his minor league career, Mills has a 3.34 ERA, excellent control and a solid strikeout rate. The smart and athletic pitcher may not have been effective in short stints with Toronto in the past, but he still has value with his deceptively quick offerings. Mills pounds the strike zone with a solid changeup and good curveball and he mixes pitches well. The Rangers have never faced him before and it’s also worth noting that in 31 day games this season the Rangers RPG is third last in the league, ahead of only Seattle and Florida. Incidentally, Texas has just two wins in Toronto in its last 12 games here. Derek Holland has a horrible history against the Blue Jays with an ERA of 8.80 over three starts, including one this year in which he allowed 11 hits and five runs over five frames. Current Jays are batting .357 off Holland and when this guy isn’t comfortable he gets absolutely whacked and that appears to be the situation here. Play: Toronto +108 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA –1½ -113 over Pittsburgh
Rarely will you see us laying runs and juice in the same game but this one warrants it. The Phillies have to be feeling pretty damn good about acquiring Hunter Pence and he could be the difference between winning another World Series or not. In any event, the Pirates ship is beginning to sink and James MacDonald is the captain of said ship. MacDonald has won his last two starts but don’t be fooled by the 1-0 and 3-1 scores. In both starts he was luckier than a lotto winner. In his last start against Atlanta every ball was roped and he only had three groundball outs the whole game. MacDonald was fortunate that the Braves were swinging at everything and that every ball that they hit hard (which was all of them) was right at someone. If you bet on Atlanta that night it had to be one of the most frustrating losses of the year. The Pirates have won seven of MacDonalds last eight starts but with the way he pitches those wins are unsustainable. Now he’ll face a strong-hitting Phillies club in a ballpark that is extremely unkind to fly-ball pitchers. After facing Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum prior to last night’s game, the Phillies went off on Charlie Morton last night and are very likely to go off on MacDonald here and we’ll be loving it. Oh, Cliff Lee needs no introduction. Play: Philadelphia –1½ -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 35 41 1 0.00 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 146 173 2 -9.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets –105 over WASHINGTON
After last night’s loss the Nationals are 9-18 since Jim Riggleman gave a new meaning to walk-off win. They had won 13 of 15 when he walked away. The Nats have also dropped six in a row and eight of their past nine games. Jason Marquis is having a decent year but his July numbers suffered a regression and August doesn’t look much better. Marquis has a BAA of .283 and a borderline WHIP of 1.42. His 3.95 ERA, up from 3.62 at the beginning of July is likely going to crash some more and return to a number that matches Marquis’ mediocre skill set. Meanwhile the Mets are seeing beach balls. They’ve scored eight runs or more in four straight road games and they’ve reached double-digits in base hits in eight straight games. Over that span of eight games the Mets have hit .324 with 23 doubles, 54 runs scores and an OBP of .414. They’ve also won five straight. R.A. Dickey is so tough. His knuckler is wickedly good because it has velocity. Dickey has an ERA of 3.74 and his xERA over the past month is 3.37. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate and he’s also striking out more batters per nine innings. The Mets are favored but they’re also underpriced. Play: N.Y. Mets –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
San Francisco +108 over CINCINNATI
Is there a pitcher in the league that’s thrown better than Madison Bumgarner over the past couple of months? We don’t think so. Bumgarner has been near flawless in 11 of his past 12 starts. In 10 starts since May 30, Bumgarner has walked one batter or less in all 10 starts while striking out 65. The Giants have won his last six starts and the scary thing is that he’s been even better on the road than he has at home. Over his last three starts covering 21.2 frames he’s walked none and struck out 19. He’s added one MPH to his fastball and two MPH to his slider this season and he’s quickly becoming one of the top five pitchers in the game, if he isn’t already. The Reds won last night in 12 but they’ve only won two straight one time since June 13-14. They’re simply not that good and its greatest weapon, the offense, has been laboring big time. In fact, the Reds have scored three earned runs or less in eight of their past 13 games and their chances of getting three or more on Bumgarner is not good. Mike Leake has a 4.60 ERA at home. The Reds have dropped his last three starts and five of his last seven starts. His strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and while he’s been mostly reliable this year, he’s been rather inconsistent at home. In any case, Leake favored over Bumgarner is bordering on ludicrous. Jump on this one early because the line can only move one way. Play: San Francisco +108 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +108 over Texas
The Rangers have five wins in 15 road starts versus left-handed starters and will face another one today in Brad Mills. Back to Mills is a minute. The Blue Jays have won 9 of 13 games at home versus lefties and they, too, will face one here in Derek Holland. Mills has spent some time in the Majors between '09 and '10, posting a 7.80 ERA in 30 innings. For his minor league career, Mills has a 3.34 ERA, excellent control and a solid strikeout rate. The smart and athletic pitcher may not have been effective in short stints with Toronto in the past, but he still has value with his deceptively quick offerings. Mills pounds the strike zone with a solid changeup and good curveball and he mixes pitches well. The Rangers have never faced him before and it’s also worth noting that in 31 day games this season the Rangers RPG is third last in the league, ahead of only Seattle and Florida. Incidentally, Texas has just two wins in Toronto in its last 12 games here. Derek Holland has a horrible history against the Blue Jays with an ERA of 8.80 over three starts, including one this year in which he allowed 11 hits and five runs over five frames. Current Jays are batting .357 off Holland and when this guy isn’t comfortable he gets absolutely whacked and that appears to be the situation here. Play: Toronto +108 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA –1½ -113 over Pittsburgh
Rarely will you see us laying runs and juice in the same game but this one warrants it. The Phillies have to be feeling pretty damn good about acquiring Hunter Pence and he could be the difference between winning another World Series or not. In any event, the Pirates ship is beginning to sink and James MacDonald is the captain of said ship. MacDonald has won his last two starts but don’t be fooled by the 1-0 and 3-1 scores. In both starts he was luckier than a lotto winner. In his last start against Atlanta every ball was roped and he only had three groundball outs the whole game. MacDonald was fortunate that the Braves were swinging at everything and that every ball that they hit hard (which was all of them) was right at someone. If you bet on Atlanta that night it had to be one of the most frustrating losses of the year. The Pirates have won seven of MacDonalds last eight starts but with the way he pitches those wins are unsustainable. Now he’ll face a strong-hitting Phillies club in a ballpark that is extremely unkind to fly-ball pitchers. After facing Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum prior to last night’s game, the Phillies went off on Charlie Morton last night and are very likely to go off on MacDonald here and we’ll be loving it. Oh, Cliff Lee needs no introduction. Play: Philadelphia –1½ -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
