Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 43 1 -6.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 147 175 2 -11.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CINCINNATI –1½ +140 over San Francisco
The Reds offense woke up in a big way yesterday by bashing the red-hot pitching arm of Madison Bumgarner. That could trigger a bigger explosion today off the dreadful arm and skills of Barry Zito. Zito came off the DL on June 28 and won his first two starts but in one of those starts in Detroit, the Giants scored 10 runs in the first three innings. In his other start he pitched at Wrigley with the wind blowing in and went seven innings and allowed four hits and two runs. In his last two starts in San Diego and Philadelphia covering 10.2 innings, Zito surrendered five jacks, 14 hits and 14 earned runs, while walking six and striking out seven. Now he’ll face the league’s top hitting club against lefties in a park that will expose him some more. Zito’s road ERA is 6.03 and his ERA over his past three starts is 7.23. Barry Zito is pitching because the Giants are playing him 18M this season and they’ll squeeze every last ounce of juice they can out of that arm. If or when the Giants make the playoffs or there are crucial games in the last two weeks of the season that could ultimately decide their playoff fate, you won’t see Barry Zito near a baseball mound. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same garbage stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed one bit and in fact, it’s getting worse. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +140 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +114 over WASHINGTON
This is an “action bet” so listed pitchers do not have to go. The Nats snapped a losing streak yesterday but so what. Jason Werth went deep in the first inning and the Nationals, true to their form, didn’t score again. The Mets didn’t score a run but they faced an unscheduled starter that they weren’t prepared for and coming in they were the NL’s hottest offense. There’s really nothing to like about Washington laying a price, as they rank 23rd in MLB with a .675 OPS and they’re particularly weak against LHPs, ranking 28th with a .657 OPS. They’ll face lefty Jonathan Niese here. Niese might be the most underappreciated and undervalued pitcher in the game. He’s quietly struck out 110 batters in 129 frames while walking just 39. His groundball rate over the past three months in order is 52%, 55% and 57% and his xERA is an outstanding 3.32 and an even better 2.83 over the past month. This guy can pitch and the Nationals have not seen him this season. The Mets have faced Jordan Zimmerman twice this year and he’s only lasted a combined 10.2 innings against New York after allowing 15 hits and seven runs for an ERA of 5.91. Zimmerman has displayed outstanding skills all season but he’s labored in his past two starts and he’s in unchartered territory in terms of his workload. He’s spent 197 days on the DL over the past three years and the most IP he’s thrown over that stretch is 91. This year he’s up to 127 innings and he’s been absolutely whacked in three of his last four starts by the Cubbies, Astros and Marlins in which he surrendered 23 hits and 16 earned runs over 17.2 innings. His groundball rate also dropped from 40% to 35% over the past month, which is another sign he may be running on fumes. The Mets and Niese offer up outstanding value. Play: N.Y Mets +114 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
Last 30 Days 34 43 1 -6.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 147 175 2 -11.36 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CINCINNATI –1½ +140 over San Francisco
The Reds offense woke up in a big way yesterday by bashing the red-hot pitching arm of Madison Bumgarner. That could trigger a bigger explosion today off the dreadful arm and skills of Barry Zito. Zito came off the DL on June 28 and won his first two starts but in one of those starts in Detroit, the Giants scored 10 runs in the first three innings. In his other start he pitched at Wrigley with the wind blowing in and went seven innings and allowed four hits and two runs. In his last two starts in San Diego and Philadelphia covering 10.2 innings, Zito surrendered five jacks, 14 hits and 14 earned runs, while walking six and striking out seven. Now he’ll face the league’s top hitting club against lefties in a park that will expose him some more. Zito’s road ERA is 6.03 and his ERA over his past three starts is 7.23. Barry Zito is pitching because the Giants are playing him 18M this season and they’ll squeeze every last ounce of juice they can out of that arm. If or when the Giants make the playoffs or there are crucial games in the last two weeks of the season that could ultimately decide their playoff fate, you won’t see Barry Zito near a baseball mound. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same garbage stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed one bit and in fact, it’s getting worse. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +140 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +114 over WASHINGTON
This is an “action bet” so listed pitchers do not have to go. The Nats snapped a losing streak yesterday but so what. Jason Werth went deep in the first inning and the Nationals, true to their form, didn’t score again. The Mets didn’t score a run but they faced an unscheduled starter that they weren’t prepared for and coming in they were the NL’s hottest offense. There’s really nothing to like about Washington laying a price, as they rank 23rd in MLB with a .675 OPS and they’re particularly weak against LHPs, ranking 28th with a .657 OPS. They’ll face lefty Jonathan Niese here. Niese might be the most underappreciated and undervalued pitcher in the game. He’s quietly struck out 110 batters in 129 frames while walking just 39. His groundball rate over the past three months in order is 52%, 55% and 57% and his xERA is an outstanding 3.32 and an even better 2.83 over the past month. This guy can pitch and the Nationals have not seen him this season. The Mets have faced Jordan Zimmerman twice this year and he’s only lasted a combined 10.2 innings against New York after allowing 15 hits and seven runs for an ERA of 5.91. Zimmerman has displayed outstanding skills all season but he’s labored in his past two starts and he’s in unchartered territory in terms of his workload. He’s spent 197 days on the DL over the past three years and the most IP he’s thrown over that stretch is 91. This year he’s up to 127 innings and he’s been absolutely whacked in three of his last four starts by the Cubbies, Astros and Marlins in which he surrendered 23 hits and 16 earned runs over 17.2 innings. His groundball rate also dropped from 40% to 35% over the past month, which is another sign he may be running on fumes. The Mets and Niese offer up outstanding value. Play: N.Y Mets +114 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
