Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 39 1 +1.88 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 148 176 2 -10.56 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. METS –1 +120 over Florida
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run then you may want to lay the 22 cents on the Mets. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one and Brad Hand of the Marlins wants no part of that. Hand is a ball-throwing machine and what we mean is ball 1, ball 2, ball 3 and ball 4. He’s constantly behind in the count and in fact, he’s already walked 21 batters in 29 frames while striking out 17. In his last start against the Nats he walked six in 3.2 innings before being yanked. What’s even more amazing is his 2.73 ERA and that number is unsustainable because not only does he walk folks regularly but his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is pretty ugly too at 28%/18%/54%. He has a strand rate of 91% and to say he’s been lucky is an understatement. Hand cannot maintain an ERA below three, it’s simply impossible for it to stay where it is over time, as he’s not shown an ability to locate his pitches and that, too, is an understatement. His xERA of 8.73 is six runs higher than his actual ERA and his xERA is something that should be paid attention to because it’s a better barometer of what’s in store for him. The Mets are a patient hitting team, they draw a lot of walks and they also steal a lot of bases. Chris Capuano was on a roll in June, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those marks came with full skill support and a 104 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). And this was not a one-month skill fluke. His BPV by month: 85, 90, 104 and 65 in July. His last three starts have been shaky after the fifth inning but he’s still is striking out batters and that’s a good sign. Besides, this one is more about playing against a guy that can’t find the plate. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +120 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +124 over MILWAUKEE
The Cardinals are in a good spot here in that send out Jamie Garcia to face a Brewers team that is much worse against southpaws. Garcia has posted the best skills of any starter age 26 or younger with an outstanding 55% groundball rate, a terrific strikeout rate and a 121 BPV. Garcia has posted a 100+ BPV in each month and an amazing 60%+ GB% in two separate months. In addition, Garcia has become a true three-pitch pitcher this season. He is throwing three pitches (fastball, cut fastball and changeup) at least 17% of the time. This is a guy worth riding and you can double that when taking back a price. By contrast, Shaun Marcum has a 36% groundball rate and he’s been lucky in that when he gives up homeruns and he does, the damage has been minimal with nobody on base. That’s a fluke. Marcum has been taken yard in eight straight games and that’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Marcum has outstanding control and his strikeout rate and walk ratio are very similar to that of Jamie Garcia. However, as mentioned above, Marcum has given up eight jacks in his last eight outings and the Cardinals strikeout fewer times than any team in the majors. Play: St. Louis +124 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia –1 +111 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook should get cooked here. To begin with he’s 1-6 vs the Phillies with an ERA of 6.05 after giving up an incredible 83 hits in 58 innings. That’s when he was better than he is right now, which isn’t saying much because he was never any good and still isn’t. Cook has 17 K’s in 52 innings and he’s walked 21 over that same stretch. This season he’s given up 68 hits in 51 innings for a BAA of .329 and a WHIP of 1.73. He’s winless at Coors and chances are he’ll remain winless . The Rocks plan was evident at the deadline. This year is a write off and the state on mind of the whole team is definitely in question. The Phillies loaded up at the deadline and their plan to go for the gusto was also evident. Kyle Kendrick pitches for a team that gives him win potential and he’s responded. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his past nine starts and his once concerning control is improving. When you watch and get mentored by Halladay, Lee and Hamels every day you’re bound to pick up something and Kendrick has. The Phillies laying a short price against Aaron Cook is a play you should make 100% of the time. Play: Philadelphia –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Minnesota +154 over L.A. ANGELS
This one is all about playing against Earvin Santana after he threw a no-hitter in his last start. A game like that starts off like any other and once you get to the fifth or sixth inning, things start to get really intense. The pitcher starts thinking about it and suddenly every pitch has big meaning. When it’s over the World Series like victory begins and then afterwards it’s reporters, emails, telephone calls and text messages that all have to be answered over the next few days, not to mention the ongoing celebration. The no-hitter does not end after the last pitch of the night, it goes on for days and now Santana has to go out there again and he won’t be as prepared or jacked up as a normal start. This is an angle that doesn’t come up often but when it does it has a great rate of success over the years and it’s for that reason that the Twinkies offer up tremendous value here. Play: Minnesota +154 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
Last 30 Days 34 39 1 +1.88 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 148 176 2 -10.56 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. METS –1 +120 over Florida
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run then you may want to lay the 22 cents on the Mets. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one and Brad Hand of the Marlins wants no part of that. Hand is a ball-throwing machine and what we mean is ball 1, ball 2, ball 3 and ball 4. He’s constantly behind in the count and in fact, he’s already walked 21 batters in 29 frames while striking out 17. In his last start against the Nats he walked six in 3.2 innings before being yanked. What’s even more amazing is his 2.73 ERA and that number is unsustainable because not only does he walk folks regularly but his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is pretty ugly too at 28%/18%/54%. He has a strand rate of 91% and to say he’s been lucky is an understatement. Hand cannot maintain an ERA below three, it’s simply impossible for it to stay where it is over time, as he’s not shown an ability to locate his pitches and that, too, is an understatement. His xERA of 8.73 is six runs higher than his actual ERA and his xERA is something that should be paid attention to because it’s a better barometer of what’s in store for him. The Mets are a patient hitting team, they draw a lot of walks and they also steal a lot of bases. Chris Capuano was on a roll in June, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those marks came with full skill support and a 104 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). And this was not a one-month skill fluke. His BPV by month: 85, 90, 104 and 65 in July. His last three starts have been shaky after the fifth inning but he’s still is striking out batters and that’s a good sign. Besides, this one is more about playing against a guy that can’t find the plate. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +120 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +124 over MILWAUKEE
The Cardinals are in a good spot here in that send out Jamie Garcia to face a Brewers team that is much worse against southpaws. Garcia has posted the best skills of any starter age 26 or younger with an outstanding 55% groundball rate, a terrific strikeout rate and a 121 BPV. Garcia has posted a 100+ BPV in each month and an amazing 60%+ GB% in two separate months. In addition, Garcia has become a true three-pitch pitcher this season. He is throwing three pitches (fastball, cut fastball and changeup) at least 17% of the time. This is a guy worth riding and you can double that when taking back a price. By contrast, Shaun Marcum has a 36% groundball rate and he’s been lucky in that when he gives up homeruns and he does, the damage has been minimal with nobody on base. That’s a fluke. Marcum has been taken yard in eight straight games and that’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Marcum has outstanding control and his strikeout rate and walk ratio are very similar to that of Jamie Garcia. However, as mentioned above, Marcum has given up eight jacks in his last eight outings and the Cardinals strikeout fewer times than any team in the majors. Play: St. Louis +124 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia –1 +111 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook should get cooked here. To begin with he’s 1-6 vs the Phillies with an ERA of 6.05 after giving up an incredible 83 hits in 58 innings. That’s when he was better than he is right now, which isn’t saying much because he was never any good and still isn’t. Cook has 17 K’s in 52 innings and he’s walked 21 over that same stretch. This season he’s given up 68 hits in 51 innings for a BAA of .329 and a WHIP of 1.73. He’s winless at Coors and chances are he’ll remain winless . The Rocks plan was evident at the deadline. This year is a write off and the state on mind of the whole team is definitely in question. The Phillies loaded up at the deadline and their plan to go for the gusto was also evident. Kyle Kendrick pitches for a team that gives him win potential and he’s responded. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his past nine starts and his once concerning control is improving. When you watch and get mentored by Halladay, Lee and Hamels every day you’re bound to pick up something and Kendrick has. The Phillies laying a short price against Aaron Cook is a play you should make 100% of the time. Play: Philadelphia –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Minnesota +154 over L.A. ANGELS
This one is all about playing against Earvin Santana after he threw a no-hitter in his last start. A game like that starts off like any other and once you get to the fifth or sixth inning, things start to get really intense. The pitcher starts thinking about it and suddenly every pitch has big meaning. When it’s over the World Series like victory begins and then afterwards it’s reporters, emails, telephone calls and text messages that all have to be answered over the next few days, not to mention the ongoing celebration. The no-hitter does not end after the last pitch of the night, it goes on for days and now Santana has to go out there again and he won’t be as prepared or jacked up as a normal start. This is an angle that doesn’t come up often but when it does it has a great rate of success over the years and it’s for that reason that the Twinkies offer up tremendous value here. Play: Minnesota +154 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
It's part of betting we know that but I have never seen one person have this many bad beats in one season, keep up the great work man
