Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.50 Units
Last 30 Days 36 38 1 +9.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 150 178 2 -10.06 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago –106 over PITTSBURGH
The happiest team in the majors today? How about the Cubbies, a team that has had nothing but misery against the Pirates over the past few years but is paying them back now. Prior to this season, Chicago had been in a position to make a run at a playoff spot when the dreadful Pirates showed up on their schedule and the Buccos did a number on the Cubs to end all hope. That’s when the Pirates were losing 100 games a year. This season, as irony would have it, the roles are reversed and it’s the Cubbies that are putting the Pirates to bed. The Pirates have slipped to 5½ back after losing the first two games of this series and things don’t look so good today. Charlie Morton was the early season feel good story but that was a long time ago and now he’s back to being Charlie Morton. In the past month, covering four starts, Morton has a 1.93 WHIP to go along with an ERA of 5.95 after walking 12 and allowing 16 runs in 20 IP. In fact, Morton has not made it out of the sixth inning in eight straight starts and has been knocked out in five innings or less in four of those eight starts. The man is running on fumes and let’s not ignore that he pitched to a 7.57 ERA over 17 starts last season. Meanwhile, Matt Garza has elite skills right across the board that include a terrific strikeout rate (122 k’s in 122 IP), an outstanding groundball rate of 60% and an elite xERA of 3.19. The Pirates have the worst OPS in the NL since the All-Star break (.589), and a .218 BA/.283 OBP/.306 slg line. That’s ugly and Charlie Morton pitching does not make it prettier. Play: Chicago –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
DETROIT +100 over Texas
Texas is money at home, but they’re just 26-29 on the road, which is not surprising, since they hit .258 on the road. Matt Harrison is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts and that’s why the Rangers are favored here. His ERA is a complete illusion and we say that because it does not match his skills. In fact, over his past five starts, Harrison has allowed 38 hits in 33 innings against Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota but escaped jam after jam with an unsustainable and off the charts strand rate of 89%. If you look at his last nine starts he’s faced the above mentioned five teams along with Houston, the Mets, Atlanta and Minnesota again. Arguably, Harrison has faced about eight of the worst batting lineups in the majors over his past nine starts and his hit rate is not impressive. When he faced the Tigers back on June 6 at Comerica he didn’t make it past four innings after allowing eight hits and four runs. A big correction in Harrison’s numbers is forthcoming and the time to sell high on this guy is right now. Doug Fister makes his Tigers debut and he has to be ecstatic about switching uniforms. Fister was an unjust 3-12 with the pitiful M’s but he has the skills and stats to be about 12-3. He’s pitched into the eighth inning in eight of his past 10 starts and comes in with a road ERA of 3.00. He’s given up one jack over his past seven starts and that lone HR came against the Yanks in New York in which he threw seven complete and surrendered just seven hits and three runs. Fister has elite command, he’s a groundball pitcher and he’ll finally be able to pitch for a team that can score some runs. He’s a solid addition to the Tigers rotation. Wrong side favored. Play: Detroit +100 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 36 38 1 +9.38 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 150 178 2 -10.06 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Chicago –106 over PITTSBURGH
The happiest team in the majors today? How about the Cubbies, a team that has had nothing but misery against the Pirates over the past few years but is paying them back now. Prior to this season, Chicago had been in a position to make a run at a playoff spot when the dreadful Pirates showed up on their schedule and the Buccos did a number on the Cubs to end all hope. That’s when the Pirates were losing 100 games a year. This season, as irony would have it, the roles are reversed and it’s the Cubbies that are putting the Pirates to bed. The Pirates have slipped to 5½ back after losing the first two games of this series and things don’t look so good today. Charlie Morton was the early season feel good story but that was a long time ago and now he’s back to being Charlie Morton. In the past month, covering four starts, Morton has a 1.93 WHIP to go along with an ERA of 5.95 after walking 12 and allowing 16 runs in 20 IP. In fact, Morton has not made it out of the sixth inning in eight straight starts and has been knocked out in five innings or less in four of those eight starts. The man is running on fumes and let’s not ignore that he pitched to a 7.57 ERA over 17 starts last season. Meanwhile, Matt Garza has elite skills right across the board that include a terrific strikeout rate (122 k’s in 122 IP), an outstanding groundball rate of 60% and an elite xERA of 3.19. The Pirates have the worst OPS in the NL since the All-Star break (.589), and a .218 BA/.283 OBP/.306 slg line. That’s ugly and Charlie Morton pitching does not make it prettier. Play: Chicago –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
DETROIT +100 over Texas
Texas is money at home, but they’re just 26-29 on the road, which is not surprising, since they hit .258 on the road. Matt Harrison is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts and that’s why the Rangers are favored here. His ERA is a complete illusion and we say that because it does not match his skills. In fact, over his past five starts, Harrison has allowed 38 hits in 33 innings against Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota but escaped jam after jam with an unsustainable and off the charts strand rate of 89%. If you look at his last nine starts he’s faced the above mentioned five teams along with Houston, the Mets, Atlanta and Minnesota again. Arguably, Harrison has faced about eight of the worst batting lineups in the majors over his past nine starts and his hit rate is not impressive. When he faced the Tigers back on June 6 at Comerica he didn’t make it past four innings after allowing eight hits and four runs. A big correction in Harrison’s numbers is forthcoming and the time to sell high on this guy is right now. Doug Fister makes his Tigers debut and he has to be ecstatic about switching uniforms. Fister was an unjust 3-12 with the pitiful M’s but he has the skills and stats to be about 12-3. He’s pitched into the eighth inning in eight of his past 10 starts and comes in with a road ERA of 3.00. He’s given up one jack over his past seven starts and that lone HR came against the Yanks in New York in which he threw seven complete and surrendered just seven hits and three runs. Fister has elite command, he’s a groundball pitcher and he’ll finally be able to pitch for a team that can score some runs. He’s a solid addition to the Tigers rotation. Wrong side favored. Play: Detroit +100 (Risking 2 units).
