Yesterday 2 0 0 +4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 37 37 1 +12.94 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 152 178 2 -6.06 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto +115 over TAMPA BAY
12:10 PM EST start. Wade Davis is 8-7 only because he’s the one pitcher on the Rays staff that gets decent run support otherwise his record would be in the 3W-12L range. Aside from decent control all of Davis’s other skills are below average. He has a big flyball bias profile (46%), which confirms his bombs allowed issues are legit. His strikeout rate is poor, his xERA is poor and his actual ERA isn’t much better. Davis has a 7.16 ERA over the past month and an overall ERA of 4.62 in 19 starts. His 1.46 WHIP is bordering on unacceptable and the league is hitting .284 off him. Over his past three starts against Oakland, Kansas City and Minnesota, Davis allowed 26 hits and 15 runs in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 7.76. Brett Cecil has thrown back-to-back gems against the Rangers in which he went 16 innings against them and allowed one earned run. Cecil has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and has pitched seven frames or more in all four. In his lone poor start over that stretch he allowed four runs in the first two innings and then went the next five innings without allowing a run. The Jays have won his last four starts and no matter how you break this one down, Cecil taking back a tag is a much better play than laying juice with the Rays and Davis. Play: Toronto +115 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over COLORADO
The Nationals aren’t far off from being contenders and with a couple of good arms and Stephen Strasburg healthy next year they could certainly make a run. This team plays with heart and passion and they have some outstanding young talent too in Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse and Ian Desmond. Jason Werth has finally started to hit and the quiet acquisition of Jonny Gomes was a good one. This game features two pitchers that have had similar years in that both have been up and down from the minors and both have appeared in less than eight games in the majors for their respective teams. Ross Detwiler has appeared in only six and has started only once. However, he’s a starter all the way and he has the potential to be a good one. He’s always had outstanding minor-league numbers but has not been able to carry over those skills to the majors….yet. Detwiler is an elite groundball pitcher and that’s always a good thing at Coors. Detwiler has allowed just two runs in his last 10 innings out of the bullpen and over that same span he’s struck out nine batters for a solid strikeout rate. Emil Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA in 72 IP for Colorado last year. In seven games this year that includes four starts, he’s walked 16 in 28 frames and has posted a 7.31 ERA and a dreadful 1.76 WHIP. The Rockies have lost four in a row and eight of their past 11 games and offer up nothing as the chalk with an unproven Rogers going. The Nationals state of mind is very good, as this team plays hard every game and they're sensing something good is happening in D.C. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 37 37 1 +12.94 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 152 178 2 -6.06 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Toronto +115 over TAMPA BAY
12:10 PM EST start. Wade Davis is 8-7 only because he’s the one pitcher on the Rays staff that gets decent run support otherwise his record would be in the 3W-12L range. Aside from decent control all of Davis’s other skills are below average. He has a big flyball bias profile (46%), which confirms his bombs allowed issues are legit. His strikeout rate is poor, his xERA is poor and his actual ERA isn’t much better. Davis has a 7.16 ERA over the past month and an overall ERA of 4.62 in 19 starts. His 1.46 WHIP is bordering on unacceptable and the league is hitting .284 off him. Over his past three starts against Oakland, Kansas City and Minnesota, Davis allowed 26 hits and 15 runs in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 7.76. Brett Cecil has thrown back-to-back gems against the Rangers in which he went 16 innings against them and allowed one earned run. Cecil has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and has pitched seven frames or more in all four. In his lone poor start over that stretch he allowed four runs in the first two innings and then went the next five innings without allowing a run. The Jays have won his last four starts and no matter how you break this one down, Cecil taking back a tag is a much better play than laying juice with the Rays and Davis. Play: Toronto +115 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +132 over COLORADO
The Nationals aren’t far off from being contenders and with a couple of good arms and Stephen Strasburg healthy next year they could certainly make a run. This team plays with heart and passion and they have some outstanding young talent too in Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse and Ian Desmond. Jason Werth has finally started to hit and the quiet acquisition of Jonny Gomes was a good one. This game features two pitchers that have had similar years in that both have been up and down from the minors and both have appeared in less than eight games in the majors for their respective teams. Ross Detwiler has appeared in only six and has started only once. However, he’s a starter all the way and he has the potential to be a good one. He’s always had outstanding minor-league numbers but has not been able to carry over those skills to the majors….yet. Detwiler is an elite groundball pitcher and that’s always a good thing at Coors. Detwiler has allowed just two runs in his last 10 innings out of the bullpen and over that same span he’s struck out nine batters for a solid strikeout rate. Emil Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA in 72 IP for Colorado last year. In seven games this year that includes four starts, he’s walked 16 in 28 frames and has posted a 7.31 ERA and a dreadful 1.76 WHIP. The Rockies have lost four in a row and eight of their past 11 games and offer up nothing as the chalk with an unproven Rogers going. The Nationals state of mind is very good, as this team plays hard every game and they're sensing something good is happening in D.C. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).