21503 2012 presidential race - odds to win any other political party +2500

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The Country needs change ............ya never know .......
Worth a biffile ?
 

RX Dream Team
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Ron Paul is the best candidate and should win, but he won't get elected cause people think he's crazy.
 

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I know ..........and we will never have a black president either .............lol ...
 

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i waste 20 bucks on way worse things...so 1 less case of beer this weekend and I can get +2500...i will take it...
 

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Won't ever happen - the only way it could would be a complete and total meltdown of the federal government at all levels.
 

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I know it wont happen ..........but I would pay 100 bucks to watch monkeys fuk .........
 

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It actually could happen..An Independent who is able to finance his own campaign could do it. Look at Congress approval rating. Something like 6%. People are really sick of the system and with campaign finance the way it is, smart people see that you can actually buy a Presidential race right now.

Look at what Ross Perot was able to accomplish. He was able to take points away from a President that was coming off a war victory. If Warren Buffet for example was a little younger and wanted to run for President, you do not think he could be a serious contender? Or Bloomberg perhaps?

If they can compete financially and have strong name recognition I think it's possible.
 

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I don't know why people say it could NEVER happen. Sarah Palin was like 3% away from being VP so anything can happen.

It won't happen in 15 months but I could definitely see it happening in the next 12-16 years. A lot of rich people out there to do it too.
 

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California voted in Arnold. Never underestimate the stupidity of the USA when it comes to celebrities.
 

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California voted in Arnold. Never underestimate the stupidity of the USA when it comes to celebrities.

and this...

probably could have done it without the republicans also

my biggest fear is that i can single handedly bankrupt easystreet with my bet...are they really going to be able to pay me 250,000???
 

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I hate when people say this is 'good value' ..a loser is never good value...but im sensing a a change in public perception and i think +2500 in this case is truly good value
 

Breaking Bad Snob
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Complete waste of money. If there is one thing Republicans and Democrats can agree on is that neither want to see a third party rise up. They will work together to suppress any perceived threat.
 

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Complete waste of money. If there is one thing Republicans and Democrats can agree on is that neither want to see a third party rise up. They will work together to suppress any perceived threat.

be honest if the book gave you +1000 that a black man will be President 4 years ago before you ever heard of Obama would you have said its a complete waste??
 
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I would've said that it's a complete waste of money and I would've been correct. Sometimes longshots happen, but not usually. The fact is that the chances of a third party taking the White House on 2012 are nowhere near 1 in 26, thus making the bet terribly -EV.
 

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so if i put the 100 on +1000 and won when Obama was elected, you would be correct and I would be wrong based on EV? I guess you never play lotto, slots, any casino game besides BJ when the count is +8 or higher or make any wager for the fun of it..obviously we all know its a longshot but sometimes betting can be looked at as pure entertainment and not a scientific pursuit...

i know the election will be a lot more entertaining for me with 100 on +2500 and an Independent in the running...
 

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