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San Diego +106 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates have now lost eight in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here. During its losing streak, Pittsburgh’s pitching has been torched and in fact, they surrendered five runs or more in all but one of those eight games. Overall, they’ve allowed 62 runs or an average of 7.75 RPG against over that eight-game stretch. The bullpen is running on fumes and the starters are trying to be too fine. While his 6-11 record doesn't show it, Paul Maholm has shaved nearly two full runs off his ERA since last year and is working his way back to relevance. What's behind this apparent revival? As it turns out, luck. Maholm's skills remain mediocre: Maholm's hit% is the lowest in four years and his strand rate is at the highest level. In other words, he's been fortunate. He's fanning marginally more hitters than he did a year ago, and walking the same number. Maholm's GB% is still good, but it's been declining slowly. Maholm may or may not end up with an ERA below 4.00, but if he does it'll be because he's lucky, not because he's morphed into a better pitcher at age 29. He remains an innings eater and bettors should think twice before being lured by the impressive but lucky ERA. Cory Luebke has a sub-3.25 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 82 and walked just 22 in 81 IP and has a WHIP if 0.98. Luebke’s groundball rate is also trending the right way. There’s not a single warning sign about Luebke but there are plenty around Maholm. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are a decent hitting club versus lefties and they’re wrongfully being billed as the pooch today because of Maholm’s misleading numbers. Buy in. Play: San Diego +106 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +125 over ARIZONA
No line on this game at the time of this writing but you can figure the D-Backs to be in the –135 price range. Joe Saunders continues to get bashed against righties and until that changes he’ll continue to struggle against right-handed lineups. The Dodgers will feature a heavily tilted right handed line-up to face Saunders because of his BAA of .273, OPB of .364, a .466 SLG% and an off the charts OPS of .810. Saunders is 2-4 at home with a 4.63 ERA and he’ll face this Dodger line-up for the second time in five days. He beat the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on July 31 but allowed eight hits (2 ER) in seven innings and worked out of a few jams. Chase Field isn’t so friendly. The D-Backs have lost two in a row while the Dodgers have won three of four and this is the time of year that these spoilers become a lot more dangerous. They have nothing to play for other than making life miserable for contenders and that gives teams that are out of it great satisfaction. The Dodgers will recall Nate Eovaldi from Double-A to make his Major League debut. Eovaldi has seen his prospect status rise steadily throughout the year after a less than stellar '10 campaign. His control and command need attention, but he's been more dominant, as his fastball has increased a few ticks. He pitches off his 90-95 mph fastball early in the count and his secondary stuff more is also good, led by his curveball which could become a plus pitch with more time. His fastball exhibits plenty of late action down in the strike zone and he induces a large amount of groundballs. Because he's still raw, his changeup is not effective. An inconsistent release point and erratic mechanics have resulted in the command issues but his stuff is outstanding. He’s allowed just 76 hits in 103 innings and just for Chattanooga for a BAA of .203 and has 99 k’s to go along with it. Eovaldi has also allowed just three jacks all season in over 100 frames. If he throws strikes he has an outstanding chance of winning his ML debut because of his wicked stuff and it’s a chance worth taking because Saunders is capable of getting rocked. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 over BOSTON
The total in this game is 9 and it’s not because of C.C. Sabathia. All Sabathia has done ever since he put on a Yanks uniform is go out there every fifth day and dominate about 95% of the time. Good pitching always gets the better of good hitting and when a good pitcher like Halladay or Sabathia gets hit, it’s because they’re having an off day. So, even if the Red Sox manage to score three or four, the Yanks may triple that against the dead arm of John Lackey. Lackey had won four straight before losing to the Indians in his last start but those four wins were the result of the Red Sox scoring 28 times and not because Lackey pitched well. Au contraire my friends, as Lackey was absolutely destroyed to the tune of 29 hits allowed in 17 innings against Tampa, Seattle and Kansas City. Now he’ll face a real offense that is seeing beach balls right now and if the Yanks don’t knock this guy out before the fifth it’ll be more surprising than Amy Winehouse being found dead in her London home. Lackey has a 1.55 WHIP, a 6.23 ERA and a BAA of .303 and .330 in August. John Lackey continues to get pounded every fifth day and you won’t see this guy anywhere near the pitching mound come playoff time. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Good luck Sherwood--I am on the opposite side with D-backs---Should be an exciting day!! My POD--CINCY!
 

New York Giants Fan!
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guys, these are his yesterdays picks, you need to go to Sunday w/Analysis now :dancefool
 

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