2012 Free Agents: Dwight Howard
The Magic's big man is the league's safest investment. Where does he fit best?
By Chris Broussard, Ric Bucher, David Thorpe and Kevin Pelton
ESPN Insider
After witnessing the frenzy caused by the 2010 NBA free-agent class that included LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, et al, this year's free-agent crop simply paled in comparison. However, the potential 2012 class -- featuring Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard -- is sizing up to rival 2010's. All week, ESPN Insider's NBA experts will profile these three free agents -- and several others -- better than the FBI. Today we look at Dwight Howard.
Scouting breakdown
David Thorpe: LeBron James, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. Those are the only "best players at their positions" in my eyes who really don't have much competition for their thrones. Obviously, that makes Howard the undisputed champion for big men. Howard's agility and speed make him a natural for teams that love to push the pace -- the transition game is far more effective when the lead post player can fly to the rim and occupy defenders, better enabling the point guard to create a shot for himself or his teammates lined up behind the 3-point line. Post defense also is weakest in transition, so Howard would be most effective in the post in an early-offense attack.
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<CITE>Kim Klement/US Presswire</CITE>The three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year has vastly improved his offensive game. Scary.
Howard's tremendous power and frame make him a difficult guy to push out of the paint when he gets involved as the screener in the pick-and-roll game, or as the duck-in guy when that action is on the other side of the floor. Those plays give him great opportunities to seal his defender(s) near the rim, where he is a terrific finisher. Even without an advanced post game (though there are signs that part of his game is developing) he's the best mismatch weapon in the paint among all NBA big men.
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Of course, the combination of his athletic prowess and his ability to get rebounds out of area, while also dominating the paint as a shot-blocker, makes him just as valuable on defense, if not more so. He alone can improve any defense in the league by a huge margin.
Every NBA team would do almost anything in their power to start Howard at center, but the teams that feature strong point guard play (to better take advantage of using Howard as a ball-screener) along with multiple 3-point shooters to keep the floor spread will be the teams that can help Howard get back to the Finals fastest.
Best fit(s): All. Any team would want him.
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Cost assessment
Kevin Pelton: During the 2010-11 season, Howard took an important step in his development by broadening his offensive repertoire. Hard work in the offseason allowed Howard to take on a larger role in the Orlando Magic offense, using a career-high 27.4 percent of the team's plays. Howard did so with no real loss of efficiency. A slight drop in his shooting percentage was offset by the fact that Howard turned the ball over less frequently.
Howard was in no need of improvement at the other end of the floor, where he earned Defensive Player of the Year honors for the third consecutive season. Howard ranked fourth in the league in rebound percentage and anchored an Orlando defense that finished third in the league in defensive rating despite limited personnel on the perimeter. Add it up and Howard cracked 20 wins above replacement (WAR) by Basketball Prospectus' metrics for the first time, joining an elite group of 22 players to reach that superstar level in the past three decades.
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Up, up and away
Howard's 3-year WAR projection Parentheses indicate ranking among Basketball Prospectus projections.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Year</TH><TH>2011-12</TH><TH>2012-13</TH><TH>2013-14</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Howard</TD><TD>14.6 (4)</TD><TD>15.6 (2)</TD><TD>16.3 (1)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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As he heads toward a new contract, Howard might be the NBA's safest investment. He's missed just seven games over the course of his professional career, and has been more vulnerable to suspension than injury as a pro. Seven-footers tend to hold their value well into their 30s, and Howard won't turn 26 until December. No wonder, then, that players similar to Howard at the same age produced more WAR over the ensuing three years than the group comparable to any other player in the league.
If Howard reaches the open market, everyone in the league will make a play for him. Howard's game could easily fit in almost anywhere. Still, going to a team with another post-up threat makes little sense for Howard, which would seem to knock the Los Angeles Clippers (Blake Griffin) and New York Knicks (Amare Stoudemire) out of the running.
By contrast, the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers or New Jersey Nets could build around Howard's skills. While they would need to add spot-up shooters like the Magic boast to keep defenses honest, those teams all could offer a creator on the perimeter to either work the pick-and-roll with Howard or take over games down the stretch when Howard's poor free throw shooting is an issue.
Best fit: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, New Jersey Nets
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Possible destinations
Ric Bucher: There's the ideal spot for him, as I see it, and then there's the spot that has all the elements Howard supposedly desires: Another superstar. Big city. Warm weather.
I've long said that being a cornerstone of the Nets' rebirth in Brooklyn could earn Howard immortality for a much lower price than other places, but the latest I've heard is that New Jersey has slid to the bottom of his list, even behind the Lakers.
That makes it a battle between the Knicks and Mavericks, and I see Magic general manager Otis Smith, if forced to deal his star, doing it for a combination of young players such as Rod Beaubois, draft picks and, say, Tyson Chandler, instead of Stoudemire.
Best fit: Dallas Mavericks
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Chris Broussard: Howard sincerely likes Orlando, but it will be nearly impossible for the Magic to make the types of trades necessary to give him a chance to win a title and keep him in the land of Disney. Thus, I think Howard will be on the move, and the trade possibilities are delicious.
Miami could offer either LeBron or D-Wade, or a package of D-Wade and Chris Bosh. The Magic aren't likely to send Howard downstate, however, and the Heat aren't likely to break up The Big Three. Atlanta, Howard's hometown, has Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia to offer. Of course, the Lakers could offer Andrew Bynum.
As for the Knicks, it depends on the new collective bargaining agreement. But if it leaves them with enough room to make a significant offer to Chris Paul, they could choose to instead make the same offer to Howard. If the Knicks could team Howard with Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, I'd say New York would be Howard's best option.
New York could also offer Stoudemire to the Magic for Howard. But with Stoudemire turning 29 in November on surgically repaired knees, Orlando probably can do better. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City could offer Russell Westbrook and either Kendrick Perkins or Serge Ibaka.
While all these moves are fun to think about, I say the best move for Howard is to join Deron Williams in leading the Nets into their new era in Brooklyn. The best center and arguably the best point guard in the league joining forces? Could be magical. Avery Johnson has proved to be a very good coach, and the owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, will do whatever it takes to make the Nets a first-class operation.
To pull this off, the Nets must do everything in their power to have their new Brooklyn arena ready to open the 2012-13 season because Howard isn't keen on playing even one game in New Jersey.
Best fit: New Jersey (Brooklyn) Nets
The Magic's big man is the league's safest investment. Where does he fit best?
By Chris Broussard, Ric Bucher, David Thorpe and Kevin Pelton
ESPN Insider
After witnessing the frenzy caused by the 2010 NBA free-agent class that included LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, et al, this year's free-agent crop simply paled in comparison. However, the potential 2012 class -- featuring Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard -- is sizing up to rival 2010's. All week, ESPN Insider's NBA experts will profile these three free agents -- and several others -- better than the FBI. Today we look at Dwight Howard.
Scouting breakdown
<OFFER>
[+] Enlarge
Howard's tremendous power and frame make him a difficult guy to push out of the paint when he gets involved as the screener in the pick-and-roll game, or as the duck-in guy when that action is on the other side of the floor. Those plays give him great opportunities to seal his defender(s) near the rim, where he is a terrific finisher. Even without an advanced post game (though there are signs that part of his game is developing) he's the best mismatch weapon in the paint among all NBA big men.
<OFFER>
Of course, the combination of his athletic prowess and his ability to get rebounds out of area, while also dominating the paint as a shot-blocker, makes him just as valuable on defense, if not more so. He alone can improve any defense in the league by a huge margin.
Every NBA team would do almost anything in their power to start Howard at center, but the teams that feature strong point guard play (to better take advantage of using Howard as a ball-screener) along with multiple 3-point shooters to keep the floor spread will be the teams that can help Howard get back to the Finals fastest.
Best fit(s): All. Any team would want him.
<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER>
Cost assessment
Howard was in no need of improvement at the other end of the floor, where he earned Defensive Player of the Year honors for the third consecutive season. Howard ranked fourth in the league in rebound percentage and anchored an Orlando defense that finished third in the league in defensive rating despite limited personnel on the perimeter. Add it up and Howard cracked 20 wins above replacement (WAR) by Basketball Prospectus' metrics for the first time, joining an elite group of 22 players to reach that superstar level in the past three decades.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Up, up and away
Howard's 3-year WAR projection Parentheses indicate ranking among Basketball Prospectus projections.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Year</TH><TH>2011-12</TH><TH>2012-13</TH><TH>2013-14</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Howard</TD><TD>14.6 (4)</TD><TD>15.6 (2)</TD><TD>16.3 (1)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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As he heads toward a new contract, Howard might be the NBA's safest investment. He's missed just seven games over the course of his professional career, and has been more vulnerable to suspension than injury as a pro. Seven-footers tend to hold their value well into their 30s, and Howard won't turn 26 until December. No wonder, then, that players similar to Howard at the same age produced more WAR over the ensuing three years than the group comparable to any other player in the league.
If Howard reaches the open market, everyone in the league will make a play for him. Howard's game could easily fit in almost anywhere. Still, going to a team with another post-up threat makes little sense for Howard, which would seem to knock the Los Angeles Clippers (Blake Griffin) and New York Knicks (Amare Stoudemire) out of the running.
By contrast, the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers or New Jersey Nets could build around Howard's skills. While they would need to add spot-up shooters like the Magic boast to keep defenses honest, those teams all could offer a creator on the perimeter to either work the pick-and-roll with Howard or take over games down the stretch when Howard's poor free throw shooting is an issue.
Best fit: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, New Jersey Nets
<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER>
Possible destinations
Ric Bucher: There's the ideal spot for him, as I see it, and then there's the spot that has all the elements Howard supposedly desires: Another superstar. Big city. Warm weather.
I've long said that being a cornerstone of the Nets' rebirth in Brooklyn could earn Howard immortality for a much lower price than other places, but the latest I've heard is that New Jersey has slid to the bottom of his list, even behind the Lakers.
That makes it a battle between the Knicks and Mavericks, and I see Magic general manager Otis Smith, if forced to deal his star, doing it for a combination of young players such as Rod Beaubois, draft picks and, say, Tyson Chandler, instead of Stoudemire.
Best fit: Dallas Mavericks
<CENTER><HR style="WIDTH: 50%"></CENTER>
Miami could offer either LeBron or D-Wade, or a package of D-Wade and Chris Bosh. The Magic aren't likely to send Howard downstate, however, and the Heat aren't likely to break up The Big Three. Atlanta, Howard's hometown, has Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia to offer. Of course, the Lakers could offer Andrew Bynum.
As for the Knicks, it depends on the new collective bargaining agreement. But if it leaves them with enough room to make a significant offer to Chris Paul, they could choose to instead make the same offer to Howard. If the Knicks could team Howard with Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, I'd say New York would be Howard's best option.
New York could also offer Stoudemire to the Magic for Howard. But with Stoudemire turning 29 in November on surgically repaired knees, Orlando probably can do better. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City could offer Russell Westbrook and either Kendrick Perkins or Serge Ibaka.
While all these moves are fun to think about, I say the best move for Howard is to join Deron Williams in leading the Nets into their new era in Brooklyn. The best center and arguably the best point guard in the league joining forces? Could be magical. Avery Johnson has proved to be a very good coach, and the owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, will do whatever it takes to make the Nets a first-class operation.
To pull this off, the Nets must do everything in their power to have their new Brooklyn arena ready to open the 2012-13 season because Howard isn't keen on playing even one game in New Jersey.
Best fit: New Jersey (Brooklyn) Nets
