Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.82 Units
Last 30 Days 35 36 0 +11.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 154 181 2 -7.24 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +115 over COLORADO
This one is pretty much a no-brainer because taking back a tag against Aaron Cook is a play that should be made 100% of the time. The Rockies have lost seven of the past nine games that Cook has started. In 55.2 innings, Cook has been tagged for 73 hits for a BAA of .327 and that’s his good suit. He’s walked more batters (22) than he’s struck out (19) and his 1.73 WHIP is dreadful. Aaron Cook is being paid 10M this season and that’s why he’s out there. The Rocks are going to get every last ounce of anything he has left to eat up some innings and get them to the finish line. He was yanked from his last start after giving up four runs in four innings because of a neck strain and because he was getting pounded again but the Rocks aren’t going to allow him to miss a start. At 10M per, Cook would have to be near death to get any sympathy from the Rockies and miss a start. John Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher with an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 54%/19%/26%. His 3.65 ERA is lined up close to his 3.92 xERA. Over the past month, Lannan’s xERA is a very impressive 3.18. Lannan may not win here but he’s a much better option taking back a tag than Aaron Cook is laying one. We’re going with the best of it by wagering against Cook, a guy that seldom wins and has nothing but trouble getting outs. Play: Washington +115 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +101 over ARIZONA
The D-Backs are going bad with three losses in a row and after losing the first two games of this series they have the daunting task of trying to get to Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw might be the game’s best pitcher and if he’s not he’s damn close. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. The scariest thing about Kershaw is that at age 23, he’s getting better with every start. He has struck out 177 batters while walking just 42 in 161 IP. Kershaw's ERA (2.68) and corresponding xERA (2.81) back-up what we know to be true: this is an exciting arm. He works deep into games and throws quality start after quality start after quality start. Ian Kennedy is a very good pitcher indeed, which is a topic of discussion better left for another time because he’s not Clayton Kershaw and anytime we can get a tag with Kershaw you can pencil us in with no questions asked. Play: Los Angeles +101 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –115 over PITTSBURGH
Well, we hate to kick a team when they’re down as much as the next guy but betting the Padres here is about the easiest decision you’ll have to make today. The Pirates were alone in first place in the NL Central just a short time ago and today they’re an incredible nine games out and right now they can’t buy a win. They’ve given up 28 runs in the first two games of this series and have now allowed an absolutely amazing 77 runs against during their nine-game losing streak. There’s not a single pitcher in the Bucs pen that wants to hear his name being called or summoned. This is a team in free-fall mode and Kevin Correia isn’t the answer. In fact, he’s their worst starter by a wide margin. In 10 home starts, Correia has two wins, a 7.71 ERA and a BAA of .361. In 53 innings at PNC Park, Correia has been taken yard 12 times. Over his last three starts covering a measly 13 frames, Correia has an ERA of 11.08. This guy has no confidence, less skills and he’s crapping in his pants at the very thought of taking the hill today. Meanwhile, Mat Latos is rock solid. Latos has added some velocity on his fastball in recent appearances and while he hasn't duplicated the breakout he had last season, his strikeout rate, good command and groundball bias profile confirm that his skill base remains solid. He's a good bet to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP. The Padres are favored and rightfully so but they’re an undervalued choice in a hugely favorable spot. Play: San Diego –115 (Risking 2.3 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 35 36 0 +11.48 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 154 181 2 -7.24 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Washington +115 over COLORADO
This one is pretty much a no-brainer because taking back a tag against Aaron Cook is a play that should be made 100% of the time. The Rockies have lost seven of the past nine games that Cook has started. In 55.2 innings, Cook has been tagged for 73 hits for a BAA of .327 and that’s his good suit. He’s walked more batters (22) than he’s struck out (19) and his 1.73 WHIP is dreadful. Aaron Cook is being paid 10M this season and that’s why he’s out there. The Rocks are going to get every last ounce of anything he has left to eat up some innings and get them to the finish line. He was yanked from his last start after giving up four runs in four innings because of a neck strain and because he was getting pounded again but the Rocks aren’t going to allow him to miss a start. At 10M per, Cook would have to be near death to get any sympathy from the Rockies and miss a start. John Lannan is an extreme groundball pitcher with an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 54%/19%/26%. His 3.65 ERA is lined up close to his 3.92 xERA. Over the past month, Lannan’s xERA is a very impressive 3.18. Lannan may not win here but he’s a much better option taking back a tag than Aaron Cook is laying one. We’re going with the best of it by wagering against Cook, a guy that seldom wins and has nothing but trouble getting outs. Play: Washington +115 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +101 over ARIZONA
The D-Backs are going bad with three losses in a row and after losing the first two games of this series they have the daunting task of trying to get to Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw might be the game’s best pitcher and if he’s not he’s damn close. In 2010, Kershaw was one of just four National League starters with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. The scariest thing about Kershaw is that at age 23, he’s getting better with every start. He has struck out 177 batters while walking just 42 in 161 IP. Kershaw's ERA (2.68) and corresponding xERA (2.81) back-up what we know to be true: this is an exciting arm. He works deep into games and throws quality start after quality start after quality start. Ian Kennedy is a very good pitcher indeed, which is a topic of discussion better left for another time because he’s not Clayton Kershaw and anytime we can get a tag with Kershaw you can pencil us in with no questions asked. Play: Los Angeles +101 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –115 over PITTSBURGH
Well, we hate to kick a team when they’re down as much as the next guy but betting the Padres here is about the easiest decision you’ll have to make today. The Pirates were alone in first place in the NL Central just a short time ago and today they’re an incredible nine games out and right now they can’t buy a win. They’ve given up 28 runs in the first two games of this series and have now allowed an absolutely amazing 77 runs against during their nine-game losing streak. There’s not a single pitcher in the Bucs pen that wants to hear his name being called or summoned. This is a team in free-fall mode and Kevin Correia isn’t the answer. In fact, he’s their worst starter by a wide margin. In 10 home starts, Correia has two wins, a 7.71 ERA and a BAA of .361. In 53 innings at PNC Park, Correia has been taken yard 12 times. Over his last three starts covering a measly 13 frames, Correia has an ERA of 11.08. This guy has no confidence, less skills and he’s crapping in his pants at the very thought of taking the hill today. Meanwhile, Mat Latos is rock solid. Latos has added some velocity on his fastball in recent appearances and while he hasn't duplicated the breakout he had last season, his strikeout rate, good command and groundball bias profile confirm that his skill base remains solid. He's a good bet to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP. The Padres are favored and rightfully so but they’re an undervalued choice in a hugely favorable spot. Play: San Diego –115 (Risking 2.3 units to win 2).
