Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.30 Units
Last 30 Days 34 36 0 +8.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 156 182 2 -4.94 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ARIZONA –1½ +123 over Houston
The D-Backs snapped a mini three-game losing streak in style yesterday by beating one of the best in Clayton Kershaw. That’s a good win because Kershaw seldom loses and it really instills a positive state of mind heading into this series against the dreadful Astros and Wandy Rodriguez. At the age of 32, Rodriguez has spent time on the DL this season with elbow issues. He’s put up some very decent numbers that include 109 k’s in 127 frames with just 41 walks. He’s also posted a solid 3.69 ERA and an acceptable 1.30 WHIP. However, there are some warning signs. First, Rodriguez's velocity is down over the last three years (90.1 mph, 89.6 mph, 88.8 mph) so this deserves continued observation especially in light of the recent elbow issues. Also note that since his return from the DL, Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is way down. In fact, just once since his return has he struck out more than three batters in a game. He’s also surrendered five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts and that, too, is a serious warning. Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever and as a result, more balls are leaving the yard too. So, while Rodriguez has good surface stats, there are plenty of warning signs scattered amongst the positives in those pretty surface stats. The Astros have the worst run differential (-141 entering Sunday) in the NL by a lot. Other than the Cubs (about 45 runs better), no NL team's run differential is within 100 runs of Houston. One of the few recognizable names in the Astros lineup is Carlos Lee. But with no protection in the lineup, Lee is in a 2-for-30 slump and now this group will face the blossoming skills of Daniel Hudson. Hudson has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a half game out of first place in the NL West. There are few blemishes on Hudson's skill set. Hudson demonstrated solid control in his debut with the D'backs last season and he's only improved on it further this season. He's sacrificed a few Ks for improved control and it's paid off in a stellar command rate that has seen him walk just 34 batters in 154 IP while striking out 120. He’s quietly established himself as one of the most reliable starters in the game and he should dominate this nothing opponent. Play: Arizona –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –102 over N.Y. METS
The Padres strikeout as a team more than any other in the majors so when they’re facing a guy with a solid strikeout rate they’re usually not playable but that’s not the case here. Mike Pelfrey strikes out about one batter every two innings and rarely does he have a 1-2-3 inning. He has a BAA of .269 and an average WHIP of 1.36. About half his starts are considered to be of the quality variety and therefore the guy is beatable almost every time he takes the mound. Want further proof that he’s beatable? How about six wins in 23 starts. The Padres create offense by stealing bases and steal them they do. They’ll hit and run, they’ll steal anytime and against a non-strikeout pitcher like Pelfrey, they can do a lot of damage on the base-paths. The Padres are also warm at the moment with four wins in a row and five wins in seven games. Over that span, one of their losses was to Clayton Kershaw but when facing three average pitchers in Pittsburgh over the weekend they exploded with 35 runs in three games. Tim Stauffer is a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season and has enjoyed almost as much success this year. His 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.25 xERA confirm it has been no fluke. With great command and an elite 54% groundball rate, Tim Stauffer has nothing but starting pitching upside. We also like the fact that the books made the Mets a very enticing tiny favorite here. Play: San Diego –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 34 36 0 +8.58 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 156 182 2 -4.94 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ARIZONA –1½ +123 over Houston
The D-Backs snapped a mini three-game losing streak in style yesterday by beating one of the best in Clayton Kershaw. That’s a good win because Kershaw seldom loses and it really instills a positive state of mind heading into this series against the dreadful Astros and Wandy Rodriguez. At the age of 32, Rodriguez has spent time on the DL this season with elbow issues. He’s put up some very decent numbers that include 109 k’s in 127 frames with just 41 walks. He’s also posted a solid 3.69 ERA and an acceptable 1.30 WHIP. However, there are some warning signs. First, Rodriguez's velocity is down over the last three years (90.1 mph, 89.6 mph, 88.8 mph) so this deserves continued observation especially in light of the recent elbow issues. Also note that since his return from the DL, Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is way down. In fact, just once since his return has he struck out more than three batters in a game. He’s also surrendered five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts and that, too, is a serious warning. Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever and as a result, more balls are leaving the yard too. So, while Rodriguez has good surface stats, there are plenty of warning signs scattered amongst the positives in those pretty surface stats. The Astros have the worst run differential (-141 entering Sunday) in the NL by a lot. Other than the Cubs (about 45 runs better), no NL team's run differential is within 100 runs of Houston. One of the few recognizable names in the Astros lineup is Carlos Lee. But with no protection in the lineup, Lee is in a 2-for-30 slump and now this group will face the blossoming skills of Daniel Hudson. Hudson has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a half game out of first place in the NL West. There are few blemishes on Hudson's skill set. Hudson demonstrated solid control in his debut with the D'backs last season and he's only improved on it further this season. He's sacrificed a few Ks for improved control and it's paid off in a stellar command rate that has seen him walk just 34 batters in 154 IP while striking out 120. He’s quietly established himself as one of the most reliable starters in the game and he should dominate this nothing opponent. Play: Arizona –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –102 over N.Y. METS
The Padres strikeout as a team more than any other in the majors so when they’re facing a guy with a solid strikeout rate they’re usually not playable but that’s not the case here. Mike Pelfrey strikes out about one batter every two innings and rarely does he have a 1-2-3 inning. He has a BAA of .269 and an average WHIP of 1.36. About half his starts are considered to be of the quality variety and therefore the guy is beatable almost every time he takes the mound. Want further proof that he’s beatable? How about six wins in 23 starts. The Padres create offense by stealing bases and steal them they do. They’ll hit and run, they’ll steal anytime and against a non-strikeout pitcher like Pelfrey, they can do a lot of damage on the base-paths. The Padres are also warm at the moment with four wins in a row and five wins in seven games. Over that span, one of their losses was to Clayton Kershaw but when facing three average pitchers in Pittsburgh over the weekend they exploded with 35 runs in three games. Tim Stauffer is a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season and has enjoyed almost as much success this year. His 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.25 xERA confirm it has been no fluke. With great command and an elite 54% groundball rate, Tim Stauffer has nothing but starting pitching upside. We also like the fact that the books made the Mets a very enticing tiny favorite here. Play: San Diego –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
