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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Colorado +130 over CINCINNATI

Is there anything to like about the Reds as the chalk these days? Here’s a team that was supposed to at least challenge for a playoff spot and now they’re 10 games out after losing the opener 10-7. The Reds have dropped four of their last five games with only win over that stretch coming against Randy Wells. They’re coming off back-to-back series losses against the Astros and Cubs. Dontrelle Willis was written off for dead but instead he’s come back from the dead to post a 3.41 ERA in five starts. It’s a good story but the dream is about to turn into a nightmare. Willis has a BAA of .283 after facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, San Fran and Houston, arguably the four worst offenses in the NL and maybe the entire league. His 1.41 WHIP is below average and he’s been helped immensely by a 80% strand rate. That’s a strand rate that isn’t surprising against that aforementioned quartet but is unsustainable against good hitting teams in any hitter’s park. Troy Tulowitzki (.409/.465/.682) and Chris Iannetta (.373/.476/.569) are two of the league's top hitters since the All-Star Break. Tulowitzki's 1.147 OPS is tops in the league since the break, among batters with at least 50 plate appearances. Tulowitzki, Ty Wigginton and Iannetta are all in the top 11 in the NL in OPS against lefties. Willis’s due bucket for an implosion is overflowing and this looks like the day. Esmil Rogers, who recently returned from the disabled list, has not been able to recapture the skills he showed in 2010, which led to him being tabbed a stealth preseason sleeper despite ugly surface stats. For what it's worth, Rogers pitched well (5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB) after Jimenez made his one-inning cameo in the Rockies' July 30 game and he followed that up with a solid start against the Nats in which he went 5.2 innings (at Coors) and allowed just one run. Still, this one is all about playing against the Reds and Willis more than it is about wagering on Rogers. This is true value here. Play: Colorado +130 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +166 over ARIZONA
Baseball’s a funny game. The D-Backs lone win over their last five games came against Clayton Kershaw. Last night as a big favorite, Daniel Hudson got whacked early and the Astros took a 5-0 lead before the D-Backs had their first AB. With four losses in five games and with Jason Marquis going, the D-Backs are a huge risk at this price and it’s for that reason we’re backing the pooch. The Astros are fielding a lot of Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City players as they plan for 2012 and they’re responding. These young guys with a ton of enthusiasm are playing well, they’re jacked right up and they’re playing to win. They’ve scored five runs or more in three of their past five games and now they’re also getting some confidence. Jason Marquis should never be this big a price over anyone, period. The San Francisco Giants wiped out Marquis in his Diamondback debut to the tune of 10 hits and eight runs in four frames. Marquis had some decent surface stats pitching for the Nationals before the trade to Arizona but let’s not forget that Marquis posted a 6.60 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP last season and this is no longer Nationals Park. Chase Field has inflated runs scored by 11% this year, whereas Nationals Park has deflated run scoring at a rate of 6%. Marquis remains a borderline player with this deal, although his numbers are likely to shift to the other side of the border by pitching in Arizona instead of Washington. Jordan Lyles is 1-6 but his base skills are really good and so is his xERA of 3.81. More on that another time but what we know for sure is that Marquis is overvalued and the Astros chances of winning again are really good too. Big overlay. Play: Houston +166 (Risking 2 units).

L.A. Angels +104 over N.Y. YANKEES
Only playing for New York or Boston would A.J. Burnett ever be favored over Dan Haren. The Yanks may win this game, as they’re capable of winning any game but nobody can argue that we’re going with the best of it by backing Haren and his outstanding skills against Burnett and his average and diminishing skills. Haren is a true ace: a proven and consistent high-skilled performer that has a 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 2.81 ERA. In 170 IP, Haren has walked 24 batters while whiffing 137. Haren has a BAA of .225 and 20 of his 24 starts have been pure quality. The guy can pitch. A.J. Burnett has a losing record pitching for a team that is 25 games above .500. That’s hard to do. He has a below average 4.54 ERA and over his last three starts he’s posted an ERA of 7.00. Burnett has a decent strikeout rate but he’s also walking more batters than ever before. Burnett could be feeling the effects of 12 years and close to 2000 career innings at this point of the season and at the age of 34 and after coming off a complete disaster (4.1 IP, 13H, 7ER) against the South Side, his multi-year trend of worsening skills continues to be discouraging. Play: L.A. Angels +104 (Risking 2 units).

 

New York Giants Fan!
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Malakas (Greek: μαλάκας) is a Greek slang word, whose literal translation is wanker but the usage of the term varies. Common alternative meanings include arsehole or jerk, and the contrasting dude, or mate depending on the context

His name says it all^<<^
 

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According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Mets had lost their past 195 games when they trailed by two or more runs in the ninth inning or later, most in the majors. And the San Diego Padres had won their past 187 games when leading by two or more runs in the ninth inning or later, also longest in the majors.

Now, both streaks are over............just a example of bad beats you have caught this year .......
 

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Just how much did you lose on this game?
 
Last edited:

New member
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Houston lineup is NO NAMES and I recognize Paredes b/c he came up through the NYY system.Time to read AAA Houston stats to see what these kids got.
ARZ is horrible, can't belive they are in playoff race. Fade them for now, but look for some runs tonight, over might be a play here
 

Don't assume people in charge know what they are d
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You stink........except for two winner so far at plus $$$$$$$
Leading in the 3rd game 6-1 in the 4th at major plus dough.

Kills me how people who never pick or pick, ....I like NY.....with no reason......and then rag on a capper.
You give the most in detail analysis of games of anybody on this site.
If the game loses, it is our choice to play it.

Yup, You stink.......like the smell of victory!
 

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