Yesterday 2 1 0 +2.68 Units
Last 30 Days 33 35 0 +7.62 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 158 185 2 -6.30 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. METS –1½ +161 over San Diego
This one is risky for sure because we’re playing a NL team at home in a pitcher’s park laying 1½-runs. However, the total is eight, which suggests runs will be scored and the reward is worth the risk. Furthermore, Aaron Harang’s 10-3 record and 3.91 ERA is an illusion that even Chris Angel would have a hard time making work. Those innings are beginning to add up for the 33-year-old Harang and you can double that for a guy that pitched the past eight years in Cincinnati. Those Great American Ballpark innings are not like normal innings and will wear you completely out over time. Harang pitched just 111 innings last season and this year he’s already up to 115. Over his last four starts covering 22 frames, Harang has been tagged for 34 hits and 17 earned runs. Against the struggling Pirates in his last start, he gave up 13 hits in five innings. Three of those aforementioned four starts were on the road, where Harang is a misleading 5-0. He’s 5-0 with a 4.63 ERA and .313 BAA and that my friends just does not align correctly. The guy should be 0-5, not 5-0 away from Petco. Harang is whiffing fewer batters over the past month, he’s walking more and his fly-ball rate continues to increase. These are all signs that Harang is running on fumes. The Padres have never faced R.A. Dickey and one has to wonder if they’ve ever faced a knuckleballer. Dickey is an unjust 5-10 overall and an even more unjust 1-7 at Citi Field. Fact is, his 3.70 ERA matches up with his 3.72 xERA. Dickey is an elite groundball pitcher with 100 K’s and just 41 walks in 148 innings. Dickey deserves better and if all things are equal, he’ll get a long overdue win at home while Harang will get a long overdue loss and he’ll likely get lit up in the process. Aaron Harang’s numbers are not to be believed. Play: N.Y. Mets –1½ +161 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +104 over CHICAGO
This equation is a rather simple one that says when Rodrigo Lopez is favored to bet the pooch. Lopez has recorded an ERA under 5 just once in the past six years. Lopez has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in his last nine innings of work and his career has about seven weeks left in it if he makes it to the end of the season and that’s a big if. Lopez has five walks and two strikeouts over his last two starts. In other words, he’s not missing many bats and he’s nothing more than a fill-in for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler probably isn’t capable of pitching deep into games right now but he’s a far better option taking back a tag than his counterpart laying one. Detwiler is coming off his first start of the year in Colorado of all places and all he did was go five full and allow five hits and two earned runs. He only struck out one while walking three but the good news is that he owns an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 54%/19%/26%. That profile is just in 20 IP this season but it’s not far off from his career profile that spans 126 innings. Detwiler has shown outstanding skills in the minors that include a good strikeout rate and elite groundball rate. He’s talented but he’s also been given numerous chances at this level and has not been able to stick. Is time running out for him? Perhaps it is and perhaps he knows he has to dig down deeper than ever. Regardless of what he thinks or knows, he’s still a much better play than laying a small tag with Lopez. Play: Washington +104 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland –106 over TORONTO
The A’s are playing good ball right now and have been since the break. Over its past 20 games, Oakland is batting .291 and they’ve scored 120 runs. Only the Yanks have scored more runs that the A’s since the all-star break. So, with an offense going as good as anyone right now and with their ace going, Gio Gonzalez, the A’s are a small tag against the Jays and a rookie pitcher and that’s what is known as an underlay. Gonzalez is an ace in every sense. He has an outstanding strikeout rate of 138 k’s in 136 IP. He has a strong groundball bias profile that’s just getting stronger and has gone from 52% on the year up to 56% over the past month. His ERA over the past month is 6.17 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 57%. That’s pure bad luck and nothing more, as his xERA over the past month is 2.98. Gonzalez has dominating stuff that will be on display against a Jays team that is hitting .231 since the break and that now features at least three rookies in the lineup. Jays are gearing up for next year and will give Henderson Alvarez a close look right now. Henderson makes his Major League debut here. He’s a short and athletic pitcher that owns a dazzling display of pitches but his stuff doesn't miss bats. He generally focuses on efficiency and pitching to contact with his solid 87-95 mph fastball that features outstanding late movement. He effectively repeats his arm speed and slot on a potential above average changeup, though his curveball lacks break. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant because of a low strikeout rate. He has a career 4.03 ERA in the minors and he’s nowhere near the same class as Gonzalez. This is really a strong play, as the A’s have a big edge on the mound, they have an edge at the plate and the Jays home record is exactly one game better than their road record. Play: Oakland –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 33 35 0 +7.62 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 158 185 2 -6.30 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. METS –1½ +161 over San Diego
This one is risky for sure because we’re playing a NL team at home in a pitcher’s park laying 1½-runs. However, the total is eight, which suggests runs will be scored and the reward is worth the risk. Furthermore, Aaron Harang’s 10-3 record and 3.91 ERA is an illusion that even Chris Angel would have a hard time making work. Those innings are beginning to add up for the 33-year-old Harang and you can double that for a guy that pitched the past eight years in Cincinnati. Those Great American Ballpark innings are not like normal innings and will wear you completely out over time. Harang pitched just 111 innings last season and this year he’s already up to 115. Over his last four starts covering 22 frames, Harang has been tagged for 34 hits and 17 earned runs. Against the struggling Pirates in his last start, he gave up 13 hits in five innings. Three of those aforementioned four starts were on the road, where Harang is a misleading 5-0. He’s 5-0 with a 4.63 ERA and .313 BAA and that my friends just does not align correctly. The guy should be 0-5, not 5-0 away from Petco. Harang is whiffing fewer batters over the past month, he’s walking more and his fly-ball rate continues to increase. These are all signs that Harang is running on fumes. The Padres have never faced R.A. Dickey and one has to wonder if they’ve ever faced a knuckleballer. Dickey is an unjust 5-10 overall and an even more unjust 1-7 at Citi Field. Fact is, his 3.70 ERA matches up with his 3.72 xERA. Dickey is an elite groundball pitcher with 100 K’s and just 41 walks in 148 innings. Dickey deserves better and if all things are equal, he’ll get a long overdue win at home while Harang will get a long overdue loss and he’ll likely get lit up in the process. Aaron Harang’s numbers are not to be believed. Play: N.Y. Mets –1½ +161 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +104 over CHICAGO
This equation is a rather simple one that says when Rodrigo Lopez is favored to bet the pooch. Lopez has recorded an ERA under 5 just once in the past six years. Lopez has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in his last nine innings of work and his career has about seven weeks left in it if he makes it to the end of the season and that’s a big if. Lopez has five walks and two strikeouts over his last two starts. In other words, he’s not missing many bats and he’s nothing more than a fill-in for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler probably isn’t capable of pitching deep into games right now but he’s a far better option taking back a tag than his counterpart laying one. Detwiler is coming off his first start of the year in Colorado of all places and all he did was go five full and allow five hits and two earned runs. He only struck out one while walking three but the good news is that he owns an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 54%/19%/26%. That profile is just in 20 IP this season but it’s not far off from his career profile that spans 126 innings. Detwiler has shown outstanding skills in the minors that include a good strikeout rate and elite groundball rate. He’s talented but he’s also been given numerous chances at this level and has not been able to stick. Is time running out for him? Perhaps it is and perhaps he knows he has to dig down deeper than ever. Regardless of what he thinks or knows, he’s still a much better play than laying a small tag with Lopez. Play: Washington +104 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland –106 over TORONTO
The A’s are playing good ball right now and have been since the break. Over its past 20 games, Oakland is batting .291 and they’ve scored 120 runs. Only the Yanks have scored more runs that the A’s since the all-star break. So, with an offense going as good as anyone right now and with their ace going, Gio Gonzalez, the A’s are a small tag against the Jays and a rookie pitcher and that’s what is known as an underlay. Gonzalez is an ace in every sense. He has an outstanding strikeout rate of 138 k’s in 136 IP. He has a strong groundball bias profile that’s just getting stronger and has gone from 52% on the year up to 56% over the past month. His ERA over the past month is 6.17 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 57%. That’s pure bad luck and nothing more, as his xERA over the past month is 2.98. Gonzalez has dominating stuff that will be on display against a Jays team that is hitting .231 since the break and that now features at least three rookies in the lineup. Jays are gearing up for next year and will give Henderson Alvarez a close look right now. Henderson makes his Major League debut here. He’s a short and athletic pitcher that owns a dazzling display of pitches but his stuff doesn't miss bats. He generally focuses on efficiency and pitching to contact with his solid 87-95 mph fastball that features outstanding late movement. He effectively repeats his arm speed and slot on a potential above average changeup, though his curveball lacks break. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant because of a low strikeout rate. He has a career 4.03 ERA in the minors and he’s nowhere near the same class as Gonzalez. This is really a strong play, as the A’s have a big edge on the mound, they have an edge at the plate and the Jays home record is exactly one game better than their road record. Play: Oakland –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
