then your math is wrong. no way you can be -454 and 19-21 picking dogs and small chalk.
not that it really really matters in the grand scheme.....i'm just being anal retentive..but maybe you're shortchanging your -454 value.
if it helps i did see some incorrect math in a previous post so you might want to go back and recheck. i think it was deducting more than 1 unit lost on a dog wager i.e. subtracting the full payout rather than just the risked amount.