Yesterday 0 3 0 -6.12 Units
Last 30 Days 33 38 0 +1.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 158 188 2 -12.42 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +115 over N.Y. METS
12:10 PM EST. The Padres have lost two of three in this series so far but they’ve clearly been the better team and they could just as easily be up 3-0. San Diego is also swinging some hot sticks these days. They’ve scored 21 runs in this series in three games and prior to that they scored 35 runs in a three-game set vs. the Pirates. That’s 56 runs (9.3 runs per game) in its past six games with a combined BA of .335. They’ve also stolen 10 bases over that span and hit five jacks. A fraction of that gets the job done here because Cory Luebke owns some of the best skills of any starter in the league. Luebke has whiffed 91 in 88 IP while walking just 22. He has an outstanding 3.06 ERA and an even better 0.96 WHIP. With a 126 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) and 2.95 xERA in aggregate, his skills show no signs of weakness whatsoever and his 1.94 road ERA confirms that his great numbers have not been aided by Petco. Jonathan Niese is also a good pitcher and this one could very easily be a pitcher’s duel. With that said, the Padres own the better pen and they can manufacture runs with their speed on the paths. Throw in the tag and it seals the deal. Play: San Diego +115 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +125 over CINCINNATI
If you wagered on the Rockies last night you must have been pulling your hair out, as it was about as frustrating a loss as they come. The Rox had numerous opportunities to score, they outhit the Reds by a 13-7 count, yet they scored just twice and lost 3-2. The Reds made Kevin Millwood look good when Millwood was having a hard time getting minor-league hitters out before that start. The Reds had no business winning last night but that’s the way the old baseball bounces. Cinci keeps losing games and they keep losing series. They have just three wins in its past nine games, one against Houston, one against Randy Wells and the Cubs and one fluke last night. They’ve also lost 21 of the past 26 games to Colorado and nine of the past 12 to Colorado at Great American Ballpark. Dusty (what do I do now) Baker is right up there among the worst managers in the game. This guy has burned out more arms than any manager ever and his decisions work out about 10% of the time. Both Johnny Cueto and Jhoulys Chacin are capable of throwing a gem. The tougher the park on pitchers, the better Chacin pitches, as evidenced by his elite numbers at home, both on the surface (2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and beneath it (62% GB%, 109 BPV). Cueto’s numbers are also elite so let’s forget about the pitching matchup. What we have here is a reeling Reds team that can’t wait for the season to end, laying a price against a team that has owned them and that should be going for the four-game sweep. Play: Colorado +125 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +120 over ST. LOUIS
Tony LaRussa’s excuse for losing in Milwaukee was that the stadium lighting operators were dimming the home plate area when the Cards were batting and made it brighter when the Brewers were batting. That’s no joke either and you can read about it here. Have another beer Tony. Now the Brewers have now won the first two games of this series and there’s no reason they can’t sweep with Yovani Gallardo going. Gallardo has increased his average fastball velocity as the season has gone along, which has been evident in his post-April skills. After posting mediocre skills and numbers in April, Gallardo has had a complete turnaround in May and June, along with a 51% GB% in those two months. He has traded strikeouts for control in July and he's got some big ERA and WHIP upside down the stretch. The guy is the straight goods. Chris Carpenter has 10 poor outings in 24 starts. At the age of 36, he’s thrown 163 innings this season after spending 207 days on the DL over the past three years. Carpenter had a 5.12 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in May and most of his good games have come against lousy teams. Against the Brewers on August 1, Carpenter was smacked around to the tune of seven hits and five runs in five innings. Home plate was lit up when he pitched but the fact of the matter is that the Brewers are the better team, they’re absolutely on fire, they have the better pitcher going and they get extra juiced up, not to beat the Cardinals but to beat Tony LaRussa. Who wouldn’t? Play: Milwaukee +120 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 over L.A. ANGELS
Well, it’s no secret what the Yanks have been doing in day games and we’ll gladly put that to the test here against Tyler Chatwood and his completely misleading numbers. Tyler Chatwood is NOT what he seems. Called up to the bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 21 starts, and that 4.10 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of six wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have three wins, as this is a skill set in need of a whole lot of refinement. His strikeout rate and K/BB ratio is bordering on disturbing. Chatwood has walked 59 and struck out 66 batters in 123 frames and when you can’t throw strikes against this patient line-up, they’ll ruin you. A -19 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (123) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need a lot more work. "Success," that's is not coming anytime soon and our best advice: bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness is inevitable, it could begin at any time and it’s very likely to show up here. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
Last 30 Days 33 38 0 +1.50 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 158 188 2 -12.42 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +115 over N.Y. METS
12:10 PM EST. The Padres have lost two of three in this series so far but they’ve clearly been the better team and they could just as easily be up 3-0. San Diego is also swinging some hot sticks these days. They’ve scored 21 runs in this series in three games and prior to that they scored 35 runs in a three-game set vs. the Pirates. That’s 56 runs (9.3 runs per game) in its past six games with a combined BA of .335. They’ve also stolen 10 bases over that span and hit five jacks. A fraction of that gets the job done here because Cory Luebke owns some of the best skills of any starter in the league. Luebke has whiffed 91 in 88 IP while walking just 22. He has an outstanding 3.06 ERA and an even better 0.96 WHIP. With a 126 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) and 2.95 xERA in aggregate, his skills show no signs of weakness whatsoever and his 1.94 road ERA confirms that his great numbers have not been aided by Petco. Jonathan Niese is also a good pitcher and this one could very easily be a pitcher’s duel. With that said, the Padres own the better pen and they can manufacture runs with their speed on the paths. Throw in the tag and it seals the deal. Play: San Diego +115 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +125 over CINCINNATI
If you wagered on the Rockies last night you must have been pulling your hair out, as it was about as frustrating a loss as they come. The Rox had numerous opportunities to score, they outhit the Reds by a 13-7 count, yet they scored just twice and lost 3-2. The Reds made Kevin Millwood look good when Millwood was having a hard time getting minor-league hitters out before that start. The Reds had no business winning last night but that’s the way the old baseball bounces. Cinci keeps losing games and they keep losing series. They have just three wins in its past nine games, one against Houston, one against Randy Wells and the Cubs and one fluke last night. They’ve also lost 21 of the past 26 games to Colorado and nine of the past 12 to Colorado at Great American Ballpark. Dusty (what do I do now) Baker is right up there among the worst managers in the game. This guy has burned out more arms than any manager ever and his decisions work out about 10% of the time. Both Johnny Cueto and Jhoulys Chacin are capable of throwing a gem. The tougher the park on pitchers, the better Chacin pitches, as evidenced by his elite numbers at home, both on the surface (2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and beneath it (62% GB%, 109 BPV). Cueto’s numbers are also elite so let’s forget about the pitching matchup. What we have here is a reeling Reds team that can’t wait for the season to end, laying a price against a team that has owned them and that should be going for the four-game sweep. Play: Colorado +125 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +120 over ST. LOUIS
Tony LaRussa’s excuse for losing in Milwaukee was that the stadium lighting operators were dimming the home plate area when the Cards were batting and made it brighter when the Brewers were batting. That’s no joke either and you can read about it here. Have another beer Tony. Now the Brewers have now won the first two games of this series and there’s no reason they can’t sweep with Yovani Gallardo going. Gallardo has increased his average fastball velocity as the season has gone along, which has been evident in his post-April skills. After posting mediocre skills and numbers in April, Gallardo has had a complete turnaround in May and June, along with a 51% GB% in those two months. He has traded strikeouts for control in July and he's got some big ERA and WHIP upside down the stretch. The guy is the straight goods. Chris Carpenter has 10 poor outings in 24 starts. At the age of 36, he’s thrown 163 innings this season after spending 207 days on the DL over the past three years. Carpenter had a 5.12 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in May and most of his good games have come against lousy teams. Against the Brewers on August 1, Carpenter was smacked around to the tune of seven hits and five runs in five innings. Home plate was lit up when he pitched but the fact of the matter is that the Brewers are the better team, they’re absolutely on fire, they have the better pitcher going and they get extra juiced up, not to beat the Cardinals but to beat Tony LaRussa. Who wouldn’t? Play: Milwaukee +120 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 over L.A. ANGELS
Well, it’s no secret what the Yanks have been doing in day games and we’ll gladly put that to the test here against Tyler Chatwood and his completely misleading numbers. Tyler Chatwood is NOT what he seems. Called up to the bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 21 starts, and that 4.10 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of six wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have three wins, as this is a skill set in need of a whole lot of refinement. His strikeout rate and K/BB ratio is bordering on disturbing. Chatwood has walked 59 and struck out 66 batters in 123 frames and when you can’t throw strikes against this patient line-up, they’ll ruin you. A -19 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (123) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need a lot more work. "Success," that's is not coming anytime soon and our best advice: bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness is inevitable, it could begin at any time and it’s very likely to show up here. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA). **Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
