Yesterday 1 3 0 -3.70 Units
Last 30 Days 34 41 0 -2.20 Units
eason To Date (Since March 2011) 159 191 2 -16.12 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +101 over CINCINNATI
San Diego continues to play its baseball of the season with six wins in its last eight games. Their coming off a four-game split against the Mets in which they probably should have won all four games but settled for two. The Pads are seeing beach balls these days and hitting at Great American Ballpark isn’t likely to slow them down after they just finished scoring 59 runs in seven games at PNC Park and Citi Field, two pitcher’s parks. Bronson Arroyo is 3-8 at home with a 5.40 ERA. His overall ERA is 5.48. In 141.2 IP, Arroyo has surrendered a league-leading 32 jacks and over his last eight games he’s surrendered 15 jacks. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Arroyo’s walk total is up (12) and his strikeout rate is down (17) and the effects of pitching at this park for Dusty Baker, who always leaves his starter in about two innings too long, is taking its toll big time on this 34-yr-old. Cinci has lost four of Arroyo’s last five starts with only win over that stretch coming against the Cubs and Randy Wells by a score of 8-7. The Reds are not playing good baseball and haven’t been for weeks. They also fare much worse against RHPs (.715 OPS) than against LHPs (.822 OPS) and will face rightie Mat Latos. Latos has seen his groundball rate get progressively better every month. In July his GB rate was 50% and over his last two starts its even higher at 53%. He has 125 k’s in 133 innings with just 46 walks. We get the hottest hitting team in the majors with the better pitcher going and that’s all the incentive needed. Play: San Diego +101 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +114 over Pittsburgh
As long as the Pirates don’t score about five runs in the top of the ninth, this one looks pretty damn sweet. Zack Greinke has been dealing it lately with six strong starts in a row in which he’s allowed seven earned runs over those half dozen starts. Over his past three starts, Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA. The Brewers and Greinke are the hottest combo in the game right now and it’s also worth noting that Greinke is 7-0 at Miller Park. The Pirates come in here after taking two of three in San Fran, which is nice but let’s not forget they had dropped 10 in a row and 15 of 18 prior to that. Paul Maholm is always a shoo-in for lots of innings but that’s about all he offers. His 3.54 ERA is the result of nothing but good fortune and that fortune has run its course. Over the past month, Maholm has posted a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.87 ERA. The Pirates have lost his last five starts and how they’re going to avoid losing his last six is a big wonder. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +114 (Risking 2 units).
BALTIMORE +101 over Detroit (1st 5 innings)
The Orioles bullpen is so bad that the team as a whole is virtually unplayable in nine innings. No problem. The play here is the O’s in five because they should get to the hamburger-eating Brad Penny early and often. Penny’s skills are bordering on pathetic. He’s walked (43) almost as many as he’s struck out (53) this year and that is simply a horrible strikeout rate in 134 innings. Over his last four starts, Penny has walked eight and struck out six in 24 frames. His ERA over those past four games is 6.84 with a WHIP of 1.84. Brad Penny is chicken fodder and this could very well be one of his last starts in his career unless the Tigers widen the gap on Cleveland and can afford a loss. If the Tribe close the gap, Penny won’t see another batter in September unless it’s in the shape of a hamburger. BAL has been a decent team at home (28-32), with the bulk of their losses piling up via a poor road record (17-37). Alfredo Simon has posted some pretty nice numbers since joining the rotation six starts ago. Only once has he allowed more than three runs and that came in his last start in Toronto. Simon is not the answer for the O’s pitching woes but at least he’s given them a chance to win. Anyway, this wager has nothing to do with wagering on Simon and everything to do with wagering against Brad Penny as a road favorite. Play: Baltimore +100 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 34 41 0 -2.20 Units
eason To Date (Since March 2011) 159 191 2 -16.12 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Diego +101 over CINCINNATI
San Diego continues to play its baseball of the season with six wins in its last eight games. Their coming off a four-game split against the Mets in which they probably should have won all four games but settled for two. The Pads are seeing beach balls these days and hitting at Great American Ballpark isn’t likely to slow them down after they just finished scoring 59 runs in seven games at PNC Park and Citi Field, two pitcher’s parks. Bronson Arroyo is 3-8 at home with a 5.40 ERA. His overall ERA is 5.48. In 141.2 IP, Arroyo has surrendered a league-leading 32 jacks and over his last eight games he’s surrendered 15 jacks. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Arroyo’s walk total is up (12) and his strikeout rate is down (17) and the effects of pitching at this park for Dusty Baker, who always leaves his starter in about two innings too long, is taking its toll big time on this 34-yr-old. Cinci has lost four of Arroyo’s last five starts with only win over that stretch coming against the Cubs and Randy Wells by a score of 8-7. The Reds are not playing good baseball and haven’t been for weeks. They also fare much worse against RHPs (.715 OPS) than against LHPs (.822 OPS) and will face rightie Mat Latos. Latos has seen his groundball rate get progressively better every month. In July his GB rate was 50% and over his last two starts its even higher at 53%. He has 125 k’s in 133 innings with just 46 walks. We get the hottest hitting team in the majors with the better pitcher going and that’s all the incentive needed. Play: San Diego +101 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +114 over Pittsburgh
As long as the Pirates don’t score about five runs in the top of the ninth, this one looks pretty damn sweet. Zack Greinke has been dealing it lately with six strong starts in a row in which he’s allowed seven earned runs over those half dozen starts. Over his past three starts, Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA. The Brewers and Greinke are the hottest combo in the game right now and it’s also worth noting that Greinke is 7-0 at Miller Park. The Pirates come in here after taking two of three in San Fran, which is nice but let’s not forget they had dropped 10 in a row and 15 of 18 prior to that. Paul Maholm is always a shoo-in for lots of innings but that’s about all he offers. His 3.54 ERA is the result of nothing but good fortune and that fortune has run its course. Over the past month, Maholm has posted a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.87 ERA. The Pirates have lost his last five starts and how they’re going to avoid losing his last six is a big wonder. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +114 (Risking 2 units).
BALTIMORE +101 over Detroit (1st 5 innings)
The Orioles bullpen is so bad that the team as a whole is virtually unplayable in nine innings. No problem. The play here is the O’s in five because they should get to the hamburger-eating Brad Penny early and often. Penny’s skills are bordering on pathetic. He’s walked (43) almost as many as he’s struck out (53) this year and that is simply a horrible strikeout rate in 134 innings. Over his last four starts, Penny has walked eight and struck out six in 24 frames. His ERA over those past four games is 6.84 with a WHIP of 1.84. Brad Penny is chicken fodder and this could very well be one of his last starts in his career unless the Tigers widen the gap on Cleveland and can afford a loss. If the Tribe close the gap, Penny won’t see another batter in September unless it’s in the shape of a hamburger. BAL has been a decent team at home (28-32), with the bulk of their losses piling up via a poor road record (17-37). Alfredo Simon has posted some pretty nice numbers since joining the rotation six starts ago. Only once has he allowed more than three runs and that came in his last start in Toronto. Simon is not the answer for the O’s pitching woes but at least he’s given them a chance to win. Anyway, this wager has nothing to do with wagering on Simon and everything to do with wagering against Brad Penny as a road favorite. Play: Baltimore +100 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
