Yesterday 1 1 1 +0.28 Units
Last 30 Days 35 42 1 -1.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 160 192 3 -15.84 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Tampa Bay +131 over N.Y. YANKEES
Jeremy Hellickson has a ton of upside, but he has relied more on luck than upside this season. He has received plenty of support from his 23% hit rate and 77% strand rate. In order to improve, he'll have to refine his approach while pitching from the stretch because it’s hurt him. Having said that, he’s learning, he’s so talented, he’s getting better and he still has a 3.05 ERA and 10 wins. Hellickson has also gone eight straight games in which he’s allowed three earned runs or less and that includes games against the Yanks, Red Sox, Cinci, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. Now to the Yanks. Didn’t GM Brian Cashman say pitching was the Yankees’ No. 1 priority immediately upon losing to Texas in last year’s playoffs? Perhaps they should have ponied up for Ubaldo Jiminez instead of having to rely on at least three misfits in Burnett, Garcia and today’s starter Phil Hughes. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year and Hughes leads the way. Hughes is 0-2 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 9.16. Overall his BAA is .329 and that’s after facing the struggling offenses of Seattle, Chicago, Oakland, Toronto and Cleveland in his last five starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of those five starts but it had everything to do with pure luck and nothing to do with skill, as he still allowed a ton of hard hit balls and never made it once past the sixth inning. This is Hughes’s last chance to stick in the rotation because Joe Girardi said he’s reducing to a five-man rotation beginning Monday. In any event, TB has played New York very close this season with the Yanks holding a slight 5-4 advantage and outscoring them by a narrow four runs in nine games and Phil Hughes is not close to being worthy of this tag against Hellickson. Play: Tampa Bay +131 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +129 over CLEVELAND
Cleveland has played a slew of low-scoring games recently and therein lies the risk in playing them as the chalk. The Indians -- winners of 19 of their first 23 home games in 2011 -- are just 5-9 in their last 14 tilts in Cleveland and probably should be 4-10 after they fluked out the opener. Since that hot start, CLE has gone just 14-20 at Progressive Field and it’s also worth noting that MIN leads the season series 6-3. Josh Tomlin is just 26-years-old, he’s having a very good year and his great command gives him hope for more good years to come. However, a lofty fly-ball + line-drive% + borderline weak strikeout rate = trouble and that makes him too volatile for now and not worth laying a tag like this when he has a weak offense behind him. Brian Duensing is no better than Josh Tomlin but Duensing does have a higher groundball rate and higher SO rate. Furthermore, Duensing has a good history versus the Tribe with a 3-0 record and 3.20 ERA. This season Duensing is 1-0 against CLE with a 1.29 ERA. By contrast, Tomlin is 0-1 against MIN in two starts this season with an ERA of 7.50 in 12 IP. The Twins offer up a lot more value here than the Indians. Play: Minnesota +129 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +124 over Pittsburgh http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
MILWAUKEE/Pittsburgh over 8½
Two bets here. We’re playing the Brewers laying the runs and we’ll take some insurance on the total. In other words, if the Brewers do not cover the run line, this game is sure to go over because the Brewers will score runs against Kevin Correia. Correia has a 12-10 record in 24 starts and that’s rather remarkable when you consider he has less skills than 95% of the pitchers in this league. Anyone’s enthusiasm for wagering on this guy should now be muted, as his ERA over the past 31 days was 8.39 and it’s unlikely to improve here. Correia has a low strikeout rate and a very high 11% HR/Fly rate and that’s a big problem against this flourishing offense. Over his last 28 frames, Correia has been tagged for 46 hits 28 runs and seven bombs and it’s quite possible the Crew go over this number on their own today. Marco Estrada’s 4.80 ERA is not impressive over his four starts earlier in the year but it was inflated by a 65% strand rate. His xERA is 3.75, and his good strikeout rate and command provide a solid basis for success. Three of his four starts were quality one’s and while he'll probably get only one start, he's worth watching if he gets an extended opportunity. If he does blow up the game will go over. If he does not, the Crew will win and cover and it still might go over. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units). Play: Milwaukee/Pitt over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Washington +182 over Philadelphia
This is actually a pretty decent matchup for the Nationals. PHI is only an average offensive team this year, ranking 15th in MLB with a .720 OPS, they do hit better at home (.744 OPS - ranking 11th) but they’re somewhat susceptible to left-handed pitching, ranking only 22nd with a .683 OPS vLHPs and will face one here in John Lannan. Lannan has an elite groundball rate of 54% and that alone makes him worthy of taking back a tag like this at a venue that is much more kinder to groundball pitchers. Philly is looking for some old magic from Roy Oswalt. Oswalt returned off the DL to throw six innings against SF. He allowed just two runs but a closer look reveals a lousy pitching line against a lousy offense. In those six frames, Oswalt surrendered 12 hits, walked four and struck out just three and he’s extremely fortunate he was facing the Giants otherwise he may have allowed 12 runs and not two. This is not the same reliable Oswalt. The Phillies have lost his last three starts and four of his last five. They’ve also lost eight of his last 10 starts and this is a guy you want to be taking back a big price against 100% of the time because he’s just not that good anymore. Play: Washington +182 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 35 42 1 -1.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 160 192 3 -15.84 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Tampa Bay +131 over N.Y. YANKEES
Jeremy Hellickson has a ton of upside, but he has relied more on luck than upside this season. He has received plenty of support from his 23% hit rate and 77% strand rate. In order to improve, he'll have to refine his approach while pitching from the stretch because it’s hurt him. Having said that, he’s learning, he’s so talented, he’s getting better and he still has a 3.05 ERA and 10 wins. Hellickson has also gone eight straight games in which he’s allowed three earned runs or less and that includes games against the Yanks, Red Sox, Cinci, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. Now to the Yanks. Didn’t GM Brian Cashman say pitching was the Yankees’ No. 1 priority immediately upon losing to Texas in last year’s playoffs? Perhaps they should have ponied up for Ubaldo Jiminez instead of having to rely on at least three misfits in Burnett, Garcia and today’s starter Phil Hughes. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year and Hughes leads the way. Hughes is 0-2 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 9.16. Overall his BAA is .329 and that’s after facing the struggling offenses of Seattle, Chicago, Oakland, Toronto and Cleveland in his last five starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of those five starts but it had everything to do with pure luck and nothing to do with skill, as he still allowed a ton of hard hit balls and never made it once past the sixth inning. This is Hughes’s last chance to stick in the rotation because Joe Girardi said he’s reducing to a five-man rotation beginning Monday. In any event, TB has played New York very close this season with the Yanks holding a slight 5-4 advantage and outscoring them by a narrow four runs in nine games and Phil Hughes is not close to being worthy of this tag against Hellickson. Play: Tampa Bay +131 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +129 over CLEVELAND
Cleveland has played a slew of low-scoring games recently and therein lies the risk in playing them as the chalk. The Indians -- winners of 19 of their first 23 home games in 2011 -- are just 5-9 in their last 14 tilts in Cleveland and probably should be 4-10 after they fluked out the opener. Since that hot start, CLE has gone just 14-20 at Progressive Field and it’s also worth noting that MIN leads the season series 6-3. Josh Tomlin is just 26-years-old, he’s having a very good year and his great command gives him hope for more good years to come. However, a lofty fly-ball + line-drive% + borderline weak strikeout rate = trouble and that makes him too volatile for now and not worth laying a tag like this when he has a weak offense behind him. Brian Duensing is no better than Josh Tomlin but Duensing does have a higher groundball rate and higher SO rate. Furthermore, Duensing has a good history versus the Tribe with a 3-0 record and 3.20 ERA. This season Duensing is 1-0 against CLE with a 1.29 ERA. By contrast, Tomlin is 0-1 against MIN in two starts this season with an ERA of 7.50 in 12 IP. The Twins offer up a lot more value here than the Indians. Play: Minnesota +129 (Risking 2 units).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +124 over Pittsburgh http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
MILWAUKEE/Pittsburgh over 8½
Two bets here. We’re playing the Brewers laying the runs and we’ll take some insurance on the total. In other words, if the Brewers do not cover the run line, this game is sure to go over because the Brewers will score runs against Kevin Correia. Correia has a 12-10 record in 24 starts and that’s rather remarkable when you consider he has less skills than 95% of the pitchers in this league. Anyone’s enthusiasm for wagering on this guy should now be muted, as his ERA over the past 31 days was 8.39 and it’s unlikely to improve here. Correia has a low strikeout rate and a very high 11% HR/Fly rate and that’s a big problem against this flourishing offense. Over his last 28 frames, Correia has been tagged for 46 hits 28 runs and seven bombs and it’s quite possible the Crew go over this number on their own today. Marco Estrada’s 4.80 ERA is not impressive over his four starts earlier in the year but it was inflated by a 65% strand rate. His xERA is 3.75, and his good strikeout rate and command provide a solid basis for success. Three of his four starts were quality one’s and while he'll probably get only one start, he's worth watching if he gets an extended opportunity. If he does blow up the game will go over. If he does not, the Crew will win and cover and it still might go over. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units). Play: Milwaukee/Pitt over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Washington +182 over Philadelphia
This is actually a pretty decent matchup for the Nationals. PHI is only an average offensive team this year, ranking 15th in MLB with a .720 OPS, they do hit better at home (.744 OPS - ranking 11th) but they’re somewhat susceptible to left-handed pitching, ranking only 22nd with a .683 OPS vLHPs and will face one here in John Lannan. Lannan has an elite groundball rate of 54% and that alone makes him worthy of taking back a tag like this at a venue that is much more kinder to groundball pitchers. Philly is looking for some old magic from Roy Oswalt. Oswalt returned off the DL to throw six innings against SF. He allowed just two runs but a closer look reveals a lousy pitching line against a lousy offense. In those six frames, Oswalt surrendered 12 hits, walked four and struck out just three and he’s extremely fortunate he was facing the Giants otherwise he may have allowed 12 runs and not two. This is not the same reliable Oswalt. The Phillies have lost his last three starts and four of his last five. They’ve also lost eight of his last 10 starts and this is a guy you want to be taking back a big price against 100% of the time because he’s just not that good anymore. Play: Washington +182 (Risking 2 units).
