NY Giants are NFC East favorites
With better QB play from Eli Manning and a solid receiving core, Giants can win division
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
The hottest topic in the NFL the past couple of weeks has been Vince Young's comment that the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles are a "Dream Team".
What is lost in all of the hype surrounding that quote is that, as stocked as Philadelphia's roster is, there are multiple reasons to think they might not even be the best team in the NFC East.
That honor could very well belong to the New York Giants.
The Giants as NFC East favorites? The team that lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency (with Smith adding insult to injury by signing with the Eagles), lost Plaxico Burress to their cross-town rivals and had first-round draft pick Prince Amukamara go out with a foot injury should be considered a favorite to win this division?
In a word, yes.
Here are eight items that show why the Giants shouldn't be written off as second-place contenders in the NFC East.
Michael Vick wasn't anywhere near as good as his 2010 numbers suggest
One of the reasons Philadelphia won the NFC East in 2010 is that Vick had a near-MVP campaign, but the fact is he benefitted from more luck than maybe any other quarterback in the league.
<OFFER>He had only 19.4 percent of his potential interceptions turn into actual interceptions. That total was tied for the lowest interception luck factor rate in the league and indicates he was a huge beneficiary of fortunate bounces.
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Lowest interception luck factor last season
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Int</TH><TH>Int + Nrint</TH><TH>Interception luck factor</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>19.4%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>19.4%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>22.7%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25.0%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kyle Orton</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>25.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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The interception column shows how often each quarterback was picked off last year. The int + nrint column shows the total number of interceptions and near interceptions (passes that could have been picked off but were dropped, tipped away, etc.). The interception luck factor column shows the percentage of potential interception chances that actually turned into interceptions.
Eli Manning wasn't anywhere near as bad as his 2010 numbers suggest
Manning had 52.1 percent of his potential interceptions turn into interceptions, a total that was the fourth-highest in the league and was a prime reason Manning threw a league-high 25 interceptions. If Manning's luck gets better (and it really couldn't get much worse than last year) and Vick's luck gets worse (and it couldn't have been much better), it could mean as much as a 10-15 interception swing between these two in 2011.
Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are much better matchup-busters than DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin
A matchup-buster wide receiver is one who is capable of posting dominant numbers against quality cornerback coverage.
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A study in the 2011 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide examined how wideouts around the league fared in this coverage scenario. The guide broke cornerbacks down into different rating levels, with a red rating being the best (allowing less than 7.0 YPA), and a yellow rating indicating the player was average (allowing 7.0-8.9 YPA).
Jackson and Maclin averaged 5.6 YPA on 66 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks last year. To put that into perspective, the league average in this category was 7.3 YPA, so these two weren't even average when facing quality competition.
Now contrast that with Nicks and Manningham. Those two faced red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks on 96 passes last year and posted 9.6 YPA on those aerials.
The vast difference between these totals offers strong evidence that New York's starting wideouts are much better matchup-busters than Philadelphia's.
The Giants can largely absorb the loss of Boss/Smith with more passes to Nicks/Manningham
Let's assume Manning will throw around 500 passes this year. Last year, Nicks saw 127 targets in only 13 games, so his target level could move up to the 150-range this year. Manningham saw 90 targets in 16 games, but only eight of those games were starts. If we move his target level up to 125, those two will account for 275 of Manning's targets. Give the running backs 100 targets and the total moves to 375. That leaves only 125 targets for the tight end and No. 3 wide receiver. Even if the replacements for Boss and Smith are a yard or so worse in YPA, it means a loss of only 150 yards or so, which is a negligible amount.
Jason Pierre-Paul and Marvin Austin could make the strong Giants pass rush even stronger
Pierre-Paul was very highly rated coming out of college and is starting to showcase those skills at the NFL level to the extent that ESPN.com NFC East blogger Dan Graziano said he "looks like a monster." Austin displayed a wide variety of pass-rush skills at North Carolina and could add a lot of up-the-gut pass-rush pressure.
Steve Weatherford could vastly improve the Giants punting
Matt Dodge's punting last year was sometimes legendarily bad, something Eagles fans can appreciate most. It's not a given that Weatherford will win the job, but even if his presence only serves to make Dodge get his punting act together, it would shore up a potentially huge weakness for the Giants.
Pat Flaherty will help New York weather the offensive line changes
Flaherty might be the best offensive line coach in the NFL, and his expertise is a main reason why the Giants ranked second in sacks allowed percentage last year despite playing three different centers, two different left guards and two different left tackles. If Flaherty's history is any indicator, it won't take long for this revamped group to gel.
Kenny Phillips is healthy
Although losing Amukamara is certainly a hindrance, the Giants have good depth at the position with Corey Webster, Aaron Ross and Terrell Thomas. There is far less depth at safety, so getting the talented Phillips back to full strength should make up for the loss of Amukamara, and then some.
Each of these items is significant on its own, but when they are added together, they show why New York general manager Jerry Reese was willing to guarantee that his team would be playoff-bound in 2011.
With better QB play from Eli Manning and a solid receiving core, Giants can win division
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
The hottest topic in the NFL the past couple of weeks has been Vince Young's comment that the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles are a "Dream Team".
What is lost in all of the hype surrounding that quote is that, as stocked as Philadelphia's roster is, there are multiple reasons to think they might not even be the best team in the NFC East.
That honor could very well belong to the New York Giants.
The Giants as NFC East favorites? The team that lost Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency (with Smith adding insult to injury by signing with the Eagles), lost Plaxico Burress to their cross-town rivals and had first-round draft pick Prince Amukamara go out with a foot injury should be considered a favorite to win this division?
In a word, yes.
Here are eight items that show why the Giants shouldn't be written off as second-place contenders in the NFC East.
Michael Vick wasn't anywhere near as good as his 2010 numbers suggest
One of the reasons Philadelphia won the NFC East in 2010 is that Vick had a near-MVP campaign, but the fact is he benefitted from more luck than maybe any other quarterback in the league.
<OFFER>He had only 19.4 percent of his potential interceptions turn into actual interceptions. That total was tied for the lowest interception luck factor rate in the league and indicates he was a huge beneficiary of fortunate bounces.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Lowest interception luck factor last season
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Int</TH><TH>Int + Nrint</TH><TH>Interception luck factor</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>19.4%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>19.4%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>22.7%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25.0%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kyle Orton</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>25.7%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
The interception column shows how often each quarterback was picked off last year. The int + nrint column shows the total number of interceptions and near interceptions (passes that could have been picked off but were dropped, tipped away, etc.). The interception luck factor column shows the percentage of potential interception chances that actually turned into interceptions.
Eli Manning wasn't anywhere near as bad as his 2010 numbers suggest
Manning had 52.1 percent of his potential interceptions turn into interceptions, a total that was the fourth-highest in the league and was a prime reason Manning threw a league-high 25 interceptions. If Manning's luck gets better (and it really couldn't get much worse than last year) and Vick's luck gets worse (and it couldn't have been much better), it could mean as much as a 10-15 interception swing between these two in 2011.
Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are much better matchup-busters than DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin
A matchup-buster wide receiver is one who is capable of posting dominant numbers against quality cornerback coverage.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
A study in the 2011 TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide examined how wideouts around the league fared in this coverage scenario. The guide broke cornerbacks down into different rating levels, with a red rating being the best (allowing less than 7.0 YPA), and a yellow rating indicating the player was average (allowing 7.0-8.9 YPA).
Jackson and Maclin averaged 5.6 YPA on 66 passes against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks last year. To put that into perspective, the league average in this category was 7.3 YPA, so these two weren't even average when facing quality competition.
Now contrast that with Nicks and Manningham. Those two faced red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks on 96 passes last year and posted 9.6 YPA on those aerials.
The vast difference between these totals offers strong evidence that New York's starting wideouts are much better matchup-busters than Philadelphia's.
The Giants can largely absorb the loss of Boss/Smith with more passes to Nicks/Manningham
Let's assume Manning will throw around 500 passes this year. Last year, Nicks saw 127 targets in only 13 games, so his target level could move up to the 150-range this year. Manningham saw 90 targets in 16 games, but only eight of those games were starts. If we move his target level up to 125, those two will account for 275 of Manning's targets. Give the running backs 100 targets and the total moves to 375. That leaves only 125 targets for the tight end and No. 3 wide receiver. Even if the replacements for Boss and Smith are a yard or so worse in YPA, it means a loss of only 150 yards or so, which is a negligible amount.
Jason Pierre-Paul and Marvin Austin could make the strong Giants pass rush even stronger
Pierre-Paul was very highly rated coming out of college and is starting to showcase those skills at the NFL level to the extent that ESPN.com NFC East blogger Dan Graziano said he "looks like a monster." Austin displayed a wide variety of pass-rush skills at North Carolina and could add a lot of up-the-gut pass-rush pressure.
Steve Weatherford could vastly improve the Giants punting
Matt Dodge's punting last year was sometimes legendarily bad, something Eagles fans can appreciate most. It's not a given that Weatherford will win the job, but even if his presence only serves to make Dodge get his punting act together, it would shore up a potentially huge weakness for the Giants.
Pat Flaherty will help New York weather the offensive line changes
Flaherty might be the best offensive line coach in the NFL, and his expertise is a main reason why the Giants ranked second in sacks allowed percentage last year despite playing three different centers, two different left guards and two different left tackles. If Flaherty's history is any indicator, it won't take long for this revamped group to gel.
Kenny Phillips is healthy
Although losing Amukamara is certainly a hindrance, the Giants have good depth at the position with Corey Webster, Aaron Ross and Terrell Thomas. There is far less depth at safety, so getting the talented Phillips back to full strength should make up for the loss of Amukamara, and then some.
Each of these items is significant on its own, but when they are added together, they show why New York general manager Jerry Reese was willing to guarantee that his team would be playoff-bound in 2011.
