Is this Math right?

"If we take Degan's number of 1/2000, and use 10% infection in the target group (and that is probably too large, but we'll go with it), we arrive at 13,862.6 sexual encounters to have a 50% probability of infection. That's a different partner every single day for about 38 years, and then it is only even money you are infected."

I'd have thought the Math here would be 1/2000 X 1/10 = 1/20,000, so one time in every 20,000 "sexual encounters" you'ld become infected. Or after 10,000 "sexual encounters to have a 50% probability of infection."

The context of the quote is from post #87 at:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/327875-the-hiv-scam/page__st__75

need some pics to calculate

Are you trying to convince yourself that banging all those hookers bareback is not that risky? Good luck to you if you want to believe its a 1/20000 chance.

ALSportsJunkie said:

Are you trying to convince yourself that banging all those hookers bareback is not that risky? Good luck to you if you want to believe its a 1/20000 chance.

Click to expand...

No, i'm trying to get an answer to a question of Mathematics. Which is correct, 13,862.6 or 20,000? Neither?

Yes, i'd love to convince myself of that, if "that risky" is not too risky? How risky is "not that risky" to you? What's the riskiest thing you've ever done? Some people choose to eat at McDonalds, drive cars {death traps} everyday, smoke cigs, drink a lot, take illicit drugs, be cops, on the bomb squad, soldiers in Iraq & Afghanistan, etc

From what i've been reading the intent to use condoms only makes one about 10X safer, since there are about 100 things that can go wrong in the process.

BTW I recently watched this movie where a guy had days to live & an HIV+ Thai hooker refused to fuck him au naturel because of her disease, but when he pointed out his health status she relented.

But, actually, i'm quite open to intelligent discussion to convince me it's more risky than 1 in 20,000. I'm thinking if a guy is circumcised, has a small tool, uses lots of KY, and bangs only recently tested negative girls, he is safer than guys with an intent to use rubber, and the number is more like 200,000.


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"Run for office? No. I've slept with too many women, I've done too many drugs, and I've been to too many parties." -- George Clooney

"Life is a sexually transmitted disease and the mortality rate is one hundred percent." RD Laing.