Yesterday 0 2 0 -4.00 Units
Last 30 Days 30 46 2 -21.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 164 203 4 -29.48 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
KANSAS CITY +116 over Boston
Since losing a 4-3 game to KC on July 28, Boston is 10-9 in 19 games. Over that stretch, the Red Sox have averaged just 4.3 RPG on a .739 OPS (both figures are well under their season averages of 5.4 and .805). The Red Sox line-up is a lot less intimidating with David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis on the rack and they’re likely going to have to score a bunch in support of Andrew Miller. Miller has walked 28 and struck out 30 in 43 innings of work. It’s never good to see spiking walks crossing strikeouts. The good news is that he's likely to tick up from here. The bad news is that at these levels, it doesn't matter. Miller throws first pitch strikes just 53% of the time. That’s awful and he’s almost always pitching from behind in the count. When he throws strikes, hitters have made contact 91% of the time and that’s because they can sit on pitches they like. The guy has a WHIP of 1.91 and over the past month that WHIP is even higher at 2.06. Last season for the Marlins, Miller went 1-5 with an 8.54 ERA in 33 IP and he’s not better this season. Jeff Francis is not a consistent pitcher at all. He’s hit and miss with more misses but at least he throws strikes and that counts for something. He’s only walked 28 hitters in 151 frames but his ERA is 4.76. The plate keeps moving on Miller and this choice is all about wagering against a guy that can’t find it. Play: Kansas City +116 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +108 over COLORADO
Hiroki Kuroda's skills are trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in strikeout rate. He’s been very consistent in every month but May. With a high groundball rate and excellent control, Kuroda is a good investment at this park despite the fact that he’s 0-5 versus the Rocks. In one game against Colorado this season, Kuroda went six full and allowed just one run and he’s a much better option taking back a tag than laying one with Jason Hammel. Hammel has not been roster-worthy this season. He can’t get lefties out and lately he hasn’t been able to get anyone out. He’s 3-8 with a 5.50 ERA at home and over his five starts covering 27.1 frames he’s allowed 23 runs. In his last three starts at Coors he’s allowed 18 runs over 13.2 innings. On June 11, at Coors, the Dodgers came in here and beat Hammel by scoring 11 times. A similar result would not surprise. Play: Los Angeles +108 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +104 over OAKLAND
Rich Harden has only pitched 46 innings this season. Last year he went 5-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 92 IP for Texas. Pre-2010, there were 2 absolutes: 1) He would get injured, but 2) His IP would be effective. Control, command and fly-ball trends, along with 2010 xERA and overall skills, say we’re down to one. Harden’s groundball/fly-ball split this season is an alarming 32%/50% and that does not bode well against a Jays club that keeps going yard game after game after game. Does not matter if Toronto is playing at home or in Seattle or Oakland, guys keep hitting the ball out. Toronto has now won five of six with only loss over that stretch coming on a blown save. They scored 23 runs in a three game set in Seattle and unleashed for another seven last night in the opener. The Jays have won five of Brett Cecil’s last seven starts. Over that span he beat the Rangers twice and has pitched into the seventh inning six times. For Rich Harden, it probably won't be long before he is sidelined again, and his skills when healthy are no longer (not even close) the sure thing they once were. Play: Toronto +104 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle –111 over TAMPA BAY
The Mariners went through an awful stretch that saw them lose 17 in a row and the streak finally ended on July 27 when Felix Hernandez beat the Yanks 9-2. In 18 games since then, the M’s are a respectable 9-9 and now we get King Felix again laying a cheap 11 cents against Wade Davis and the Rays. Hernandez needs no introductions. Full-blown encores seemed impossible after '09 breakout and workload spike. But he just keeps dealing, even in the face of historically poor offensive support. He's one of the AL's best. In his one start against the Rays this year he struck out 11 in typical King Felix fashion. Wade Davis is not showing signs of growth. Expectations for Davis were high heading into 2011. The 25-year old went 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of 2010, leading to speculation of a breakout season. With lackluster results and a DL stint with a strained forearm, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. xERA shows his true skill level. Despite the splendid 2010 second half ERA, his xERA was 4.56 over that time frame. While his control has declined slightly over the years, his strikeout rate has plummeted and close to half his batted balls are in the air. Davis has regressed and his days in the Rays rotation may be numbered. That this stiff is near a pick’em against Hernandez is bordering on lunacy. Play: Seattle –111 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 30 46 2 -21.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 164 203 4 -29.48 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
KANSAS CITY +116 over Boston
Since losing a 4-3 game to KC on July 28, Boston is 10-9 in 19 games. Over that stretch, the Red Sox have averaged just 4.3 RPG on a .739 OPS (both figures are well under their season averages of 5.4 and .805). The Red Sox line-up is a lot less intimidating with David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis on the rack and they’re likely going to have to score a bunch in support of Andrew Miller. Miller has walked 28 and struck out 30 in 43 innings of work. It’s never good to see spiking walks crossing strikeouts. The good news is that he's likely to tick up from here. The bad news is that at these levels, it doesn't matter. Miller throws first pitch strikes just 53% of the time. That’s awful and he’s almost always pitching from behind in the count. When he throws strikes, hitters have made contact 91% of the time and that’s because they can sit on pitches they like. The guy has a WHIP of 1.91 and over the past month that WHIP is even higher at 2.06. Last season for the Marlins, Miller went 1-5 with an 8.54 ERA in 33 IP and he’s not better this season. Jeff Francis is not a consistent pitcher at all. He’s hit and miss with more misses but at least he throws strikes and that counts for something. He’s only walked 28 hitters in 151 frames but his ERA is 4.76. The plate keeps moving on Miller and this choice is all about wagering against a guy that can’t find it. Play: Kansas City +116 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +108 over COLORADO
Hiroki Kuroda's skills are trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in strikeout rate. He’s been very consistent in every month but May. With a high groundball rate and excellent control, Kuroda is a good investment at this park despite the fact that he’s 0-5 versus the Rocks. In one game against Colorado this season, Kuroda went six full and allowed just one run and he’s a much better option taking back a tag than laying one with Jason Hammel. Hammel has not been roster-worthy this season. He can’t get lefties out and lately he hasn’t been able to get anyone out. He’s 3-8 with a 5.50 ERA at home and over his five starts covering 27.1 frames he’s allowed 23 runs. In his last three starts at Coors he’s allowed 18 runs over 13.2 innings. On June 11, at Coors, the Dodgers came in here and beat Hammel by scoring 11 times. A similar result would not surprise. Play: Los Angeles +108 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +104 over OAKLAND
Rich Harden has only pitched 46 innings this season. Last year he went 5-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 92 IP for Texas. Pre-2010, there were 2 absolutes: 1) He would get injured, but 2) His IP would be effective. Control, command and fly-ball trends, along with 2010 xERA and overall skills, say we’re down to one. Harden’s groundball/fly-ball split this season is an alarming 32%/50% and that does not bode well against a Jays club that keeps going yard game after game after game. Does not matter if Toronto is playing at home or in Seattle or Oakland, guys keep hitting the ball out. Toronto has now won five of six with only loss over that stretch coming on a blown save. They scored 23 runs in a three game set in Seattle and unleashed for another seven last night in the opener. The Jays have won five of Brett Cecil’s last seven starts. Over that span he beat the Rangers twice and has pitched into the seventh inning six times. For Rich Harden, it probably won't be long before he is sidelined again, and his skills when healthy are no longer (not even close) the sure thing they once were. Play: Toronto +104 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle –111 over TAMPA BAY
The Mariners went through an awful stretch that saw them lose 17 in a row and the streak finally ended on July 27 when Felix Hernandez beat the Yanks 9-2. In 18 games since then, the M’s are a respectable 9-9 and now we get King Felix again laying a cheap 11 cents against Wade Davis and the Rays. Hernandez needs no introductions. Full-blown encores seemed impossible after '09 breakout and workload spike. But he just keeps dealing, even in the face of historically poor offensive support. He's one of the AL's best. In his one start against the Rays this year he struck out 11 in typical King Felix fashion. Wade Davis is not showing signs of growth. Expectations for Davis were high heading into 2011. The 25-year old went 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of 2010, leading to speculation of a breakout season. With lackluster results and a DL stint with a strained forearm, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. xERA shows his true skill level. Despite the splendid 2010 second half ERA, his xERA was 4.56 over that time frame. While his control has declined slightly over the years, his strikeout rate has plummeted and close to half his batted balls are in the air. Davis has regressed and his days in the Rays rotation may be numbered. That this stiff is near a pick’em against Hernandez is bordering on lunacy. Play: Seattle –111 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).
