Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.44 Units
Last 30 Days 29 48 2 -27.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 166 207 4 -33.10 Units
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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
CHICAGO +118 over Texas
The Rangers are hot but so, too, are the White Sox, who are currently on a 10-5 run and they evened up the series last night. Gavin Floyd has been consistently good for three straight years including this one. This year has been a carbon copy of 2009 and 2010 (now with more grounders) confirms his skill level. He throws strikes and his K rate is very good with 111 in 146 IP. His ERA of 4.66 is more than a run higher that his xERA of 3.63 and his high ERA is due to a low strand rate of 63%. A ton of balls hit on the ground have found holes and that’s pure bad luck. Over the past month, covering five starts his strand rate was 47% but with 26 K’s in 29 frames and a WHIP of 1.06 over that stretch, don’t believe that misleading ERA of 5.83. Gavin Floyd is good but the surface stats could throw you off. Derek Holland has been feast or famine in most starts this season. When he pitches with the bases empty he’s posted outstanding numbers but when he pitches from the stretch he gets into serious trouble. The South Side is in the top five in the majors in getting their leadoff man on in each inning and that smells like trouble for Holland. His strand rate over the past month is 81% and that’s an unsustainable number. Holland’s numbers are ok but he’s also inconsistent and this match doesn’t look so good for him. The White Sox are still in this thing, as they sit just five games out of first and just 1½-back of Cleveland for second. Play: Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO +120 over St. Louis
The Cubs are 13-5 in August and beating the Cardinals is almost as satisfying as being in a playoff race. Watching Tony LaRussa and his sidekick cheating-partner Mark McGwire squirm in the dugout makes watching these games even sweeter. The Cardinals have dropped to 8½ back and they’ve recently lost to Randy Wells, Jason Hammel and Jeff Karstens among others. The Cards only two wins over their past seven games came against Esmil Rogers of the Rockies and Paul Maholm of the Pirates. That’s what you get when you hire a pitching coach with a career .235 average before he started juicing himself. Must be interesting to see McGwire trying to teach Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Furcal, Molina, Theriot and David Freese how to hit. That’s like Mike Tyson trying to teach Boris Spassky how to play chess. Tonight’s matchup is between Jake Westbrook and Rodrigo Lopez and if you think Westbrook is better you’re wrong. He’s not. He’s not much worse but he is. Besides, Lopez is pitching on borrowed time and is under no pressure whatsoever. Westbrook is and in a game in Chicago at Wrigley on a Sunday night, against a hot Cubbies club, Westbrook favored has zero appeal. Play: Chicago +120 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +136 over L.A. ANGELS
The O’s offense is superior to the Angels, that’s a given as the O’s have scored about 50 more runs than L.A. and they’ve almost doubled the Angels home-runs totals. The Orioles lose because they’re almost always at a disadvantage on the mound. Not here and this is absolutely the biggest overlay of the day. Jerome Williams gets the start in place of Tyler Chatwood and if you thought Chatwood was bad, you can triple that with Williams. Williams was once a prospect but he’s been bouncing around in the minors for eight years now. He does have 71 career starts in the majors but six teams have dropped him over those eight years. In his last four stints in the majors, Williams posted ERA’s of 7.20, 7.30, 4.36 and 6.48 with WHIPS of 1.73, 2.11, 1.37 and 1.50. That was from 2005 to 2007 pitching for four different clubs. His last appearance in the majors before he pitched one inning this year (his WHIP in that inning was 3.00), was in ’07. This is a skill set that's going nowhere fast. Brian Mutusz doesn’t offer up much either. He was called up on Tuesday to face the A's and made his first major league start since June 30. His record fell to 1-5 after he allowed six runs on eight hits, one home run and three walks with five strikeouts over 6.2 innings pitched. However, he was coming off two strong starts at AAA-Norfolk (2-0, 16 IP, 1 ER, 14/3 K/BB) and perhaps he’s can give the O’s some good innings in his second start since the recall. Regardless, the O’s offer up all the value in this one against a fragile and weak Jerome Williams. Play: Baltimore +136 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 29 48 2 -27.90 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 166 207 4 -33.10 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
CHICAGO +118 over Texas
The Rangers are hot but so, too, are the White Sox, who are currently on a 10-5 run and they evened up the series last night. Gavin Floyd has been consistently good for three straight years including this one. This year has been a carbon copy of 2009 and 2010 (now with more grounders) confirms his skill level. He throws strikes and his K rate is very good with 111 in 146 IP. His ERA of 4.66 is more than a run higher that his xERA of 3.63 and his high ERA is due to a low strand rate of 63%. A ton of balls hit on the ground have found holes and that’s pure bad luck. Over the past month, covering five starts his strand rate was 47% but with 26 K’s in 29 frames and a WHIP of 1.06 over that stretch, don’t believe that misleading ERA of 5.83. Gavin Floyd is good but the surface stats could throw you off. Derek Holland has been feast or famine in most starts this season. When he pitches with the bases empty he’s posted outstanding numbers but when he pitches from the stretch he gets into serious trouble. The South Side is in the top five in the majors in getting their leadoff man on in each inning and that smells like trouble for Holland. His strand rate over the past month is 81% and that’s an unsustainable number. Holland’s numbers are ok but he’s also inconsistent and this match doesn’t look so good for him. The White Sox are still in this thing, as they sit just five games out of first and just 1½-back of Cleveland for second. Play: Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO +120 over St. Louis
The Cubs are 13-5 in August and beating the Cardinals is almost as satisfying as being in a playoff race. Watching Tony LaRussa and his sidekick cheating-partner Mark McGwire squirm in the dugout makes watching these games even sweeter. The Cardinals have dropped to 8½ back and they’ve recently lost to Randy Wells, Jason Hammel and Jeff Karstens among others. The Cards only two wins over their past seven games came against Esmil Rogers of the Rockies and Paul Maholm of the Pirates. That’s what you get when you hire a pitching coach with a career .235 average before he started juicing himself. Must be interesting to see McGwire trying to teach Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, Furcal, Molina, Theriot and David Freese how to hit. That’s like Mike Tyson trying to teach Boris Spassky how to play chess. Tonight’s matchup is between Jake Westbrook and Rodrigo Lopez and if you think Westbrook is better you’re wrong. He’s not. He’s not much worse but he is. Besides, Lopez is pitching on borrowed time and is under no pressure whatsoever. Westbrook is and in a game in Chicago at Wrigley on a Sunday night, against a hot Cubbies club, Westbrook favored has zero appeal. Play: Chicago +120 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +136 over L.A. ANGELS
The O’s offense is superior to the Angels, that’s a given as the O’s have scored about 50 more runs than L.A. and they’ve almost doubled the Angels home-runs totals. The Orioles lose because they’re almost always at a disadvantage on the mound. Not here and this is absolutely the biggest overlay of the day. Jerome Williams gets the start in place of Tyler Chatwood and if you thought Chatwood was bad, you can triple that with Williams. Williams was once a prospect but he’s been bouncing around in the minors for eight years now. He does have 71 career starts in the majors but six teams have dropped him over those eight years. In his last four stints in the majors, Williams posted ERA’s of 7.20, 7.30, 4.36 and 6.48 with WHIPS of 1.73, 2.11, 1.37 and 1.50. That was from 2005 to 2007 pitching for four different clubs. His last appearance in the majors before he pitched one inning this year (his WHIP in that inning was 3.00), was in ’07. This is a skill set that's going nowhere fast. Brian Mutusz doesn’t offer up much either. He was called up on Tuesday to face the A's and made his first major league start since June 30. His record fell to 1-5 after he allowed six runs on eight hits, one home run and three walks with five strikeouts over 6.2 innings pitched. However, he was coming off two strong starts at AAA-Norfolk (2-0, 16 IP, 1 ER, 14/3 K/BB) and perhaps he’s can give the O’s some good innings in his second start since the recall. Regardless, the O’s offer up all the value in this one against a fragile and weak Jerome Williams. Play: Baltimore +136 (Risking 2 units).
