Cnotes Wednesday's MLB Early/Evening Best Bets !

Cubs, Braves In MLB Odds Clash At Wrigley

The Atlanta Braves will try to strengthen their hold on the wild card and gain ground on Philadelphia in the NL East Wednesday night in the third game of a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs.

Wednesday’s game at Wrigley Field is set to start at 5:05 p.m. (PT) as Derek Lowe takes the mound against Randy Wells.

Entering Tuesday, Atlanta stood 8.5-games ahead of San Francisco in the NL Wild Card race, and 6.5-games behind Philadelphia in the NL East. Chicago’s playoff hopes are over, but the Cubs have been playing some good baseball lately (14-7 over their last 21 games, +8.80 units) and won’t give Atlanta the series without a fight.

Atlanta (77-52) has been red hot, winning five straight (+5.10 units) and 12 of the last 15 (+7.65 units). Two of the three losses over that stretch came against the Cubs, so the Braves won’t be taking them lightly in this series.

Derek Lowe (8-11, 4.73 ERA) has struggled this season, holding the highest ERA among Atlanta’s starting pitchers and the only losing record on the staff. The Braves have won two of Lowe’s last three trips to the mound (+0.35 units), but are 5-8 over his last 13 (-4.05 units).

In 11 career starts against Chicago, Lowe is 3-2 with a 3.89 ERA. In his only start against the Cubs this season on August 13, he gave up five runs over six innings and took the loss.

Chicago (56-72) has won five of its last six series, including 2-1 series wins over contenders in Atlanta and St. Louis. Sitting 20.5-games out of the wild card race, the winning stretch is coming a bit too late to matter this season, but the Cubs seem content to play spoiler and build some momentum for next season.

Randy Wells (4-4, 5.84 ERA) has not pitched well in 2011, giving up four or more earned runs in 10 of his 16 starts. That said, he has been a profitable pitcher in August over the Cubs’ hot streak, as Chicago is 3-1 (+3.10 units) in his four starts this month.

Wells has fared well over St. Louis in five career starts, posting a 3.00 ERA and a 3-1 record. One of those wins came on August 13, when he topped Derek Lowe as a 155 underdog.

Atlanta won the series opener Monday night to knot up the season series between these two teams heading into Tuesday 2-2. Monday night’s game went ‘under,’ but the three previous games all went ‘over.’

The total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of Derek Lowe’s last 13 starts and three of Randy Wells’ last four.

Chicago is 31-35 at Wrigley Field this season (-5.95 units) and Atlanta is 36-27 (+8.20 units) on the road.

Atlanta outfielder Jose Constanza (ankle injury) may not be available for the Braves Wednesday.

DJ Reyburn is scheduled to call the plate in Wednesday's contest, and brings strong leans to the home team and 'under' into the game. His previous 21 plate assignments in 2011 have seen the home squad win 14 times, 10-4 when the favorite. The 'under is also 14-7, including both of his games at Wrigley.

A 40 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is in the Chicago forecast for Wednesday. First pitch should find the thermometer in the mid-80s with WSW winds in the 12-15 mph range. Brandon Beachy and Matt Garza will pitch in the series finale Thursday afternoon.

Boston Red Sox At Texas Rangers MLB Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a couple of key factors against them, injuries and history, as they visit the Texas Rangers on ESPN2’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

This third game of a 4-game set begins at 4:00 p.m. (PT) from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Boston at least has the pitching edge with Josh Beckett against Matt Harrison.

The series began Monday night with Texas winning 4-0 behind lefty ace C.J. Wilson. Boston is 0-4 against the Rangers this year, all in the Lone Star State, and just 2-11 there since the start of 2009.

Game 2 on Tuesday night is still pending with Boston a 140 underdog on the Don Best odds screen. Texas native John Lackey pitched for the visitors against Colby Lewis.

Boston (77-50) is almost certainly playoff bound, but is just 5-7 in its last 12 games and injuries are a big reason why. Kevin Youkilis (back), David Ortiz (heel) and Jacoby Ellsbury (back) have all missed time, with the latter expected back Tuesday. Youkilis is definitely out Wednesday and Ortiz likely as well.

The ‘under’ is 8-1 in Boston’s last nine games, scoring 3.22 runs per game compared to 5.28 on the season (second best in MLB). It’s never good when Darnell McDonald (.639 OPS) is the No. 2 hitter like on Monday, but he’ll sit with Ellsbury’s return.

Beckett (10-5, 2.46 ERA) is another Boston starter from Texas (the Houston suburb of Spring). This is his first appearance against the Rangers this year, with his career ERA 5.53 against them in seven starts, 3.96 on the road (four starts).

The 31-year-old right-hander is having a fine season overall. Boston is 9-2 in his home starts (1.95 ERA). His road ERA is significantly higher (2.87), with the team 8-5.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 in Beckett’s last six road starts and 18-5-1 on the season. Texas is 13-3 in its last 16 home games against a right-handed starter.

Texas (74-55) is 4.5 games up on the Angels in the AL West standings, but Los Angeles is making a mini-run by winning four straight. The Rangers are 40-23 at home this year, although it’s only translated in +3.7 units.

Harrison (10-8, 3.28 ERA) is one of five Texas starters with at least 10 wins. He’s an unheralded guy who earned a rotation spot this season after spending most of last year in the pen.

The 25-year-old lefty has a 6.02 strikeout rate and a respectable .693 OPS. He got two no-decisions in his last two starts at Oakland and the White Sox, allowing seven earned runs over a combined 9 2/3 innings.

Texas still won both of those contests (7-4, 7-6) and is 8-1 in Harrison’s last nine overall (3.26 ERA). It’s 6-0 in his last six home starts (2.16 ERA).

This is Harrison’s second start against the Red Sox this year. He surrendered one earned run (five hits) over seven innings in a 5-1 home win in April, his first start of the year.

Boston is 11-5 in its last 16 road games against a lefty starter even after losing Monday to Wilson. The Red Sox are 39-26 on the road this year (+7.4 units), 12-8 in the second half.

Texas’ big injury is third baseman Adrian Beltre (hamstring), out since July 22. The offense hasn’t missed him much this month at 5.35 runs per game (the ‘over’ 12-7-1).

Dana DeMuth will call balls and strikes. The Red Sox are 13-3 in his last 16 games behind the plate. The ‘over’ is 20-6 in his last 26 games behind the dish.

Wednesday weather will be scorching hot with a high of 105 degrees. It should still be in the upper 90s come first pitch. That’s another factor in Texas’ favor.

Thursday’s finale has Andrew Miller moving ahead of Tim Wakefield, who is still looking for his 200th win. Alexi Ogando goes for the Rangers.

Around the Horn - Wednesday

August 23, 2011

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Milwaukee at Pittsburgh - 12:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Marcum (11-3, 3.40 ERA) 9-2 L11 4-1 L5 away during day
Undecided 4-6 L10 3-7 home on Wednesdays

Brewers beat Pirates, 8-1 on Monday (G1/DH)
Pirates beat Brewers, 9-2 on Monday (G2/DH)

N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Pelfrey (6-10, 4.61 ERA) 2-9 L11 OVER 8-1 away on Wednesdays
Kendrick (7-5, 3.24 ERA) 8-3 L11 16-4 home during day

Phillies beat Mets, 10-0 on Monday

Los Angeles at St. Louis - 2:15 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Kuroda (9-14, 2.88 ERA) 3-5 L8 UNDER 5-1 L6 away during day
Garcia (10-6, 3.45 ERA) 1-5 L6 7-2 L9 home during day

Dodgers beat Cardinals, 2-1 on Monday

Houston at Colorado - 3:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Rodriguez (9-9, 3.31 ERA) 4-2 L6 6-12 away Game 3's
Cook (3-7, 5.23 ERA) 4-6 L10 3-9 L12 home during day

Rockies beat Astros, 9-5 on Monday

Cincinnati at Florida - 4:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Bailey (7-5, 4.48 ERA) 6-4 L10 2-6 L8 away Game 2's
Volstad (5-10, 5.66 ERA) 1-8 L9 2-6 L8 home during day




Arizona at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hudson (12-9, 3.83 ERA) 0-6 L6 1-8 L9 away Game 3's
Hernandez (7-11, 4.34 ERA) 5-5 L10 8-3 L11 home Game 3's

Nationals beat Diamondbacks, 4-1 on Monday

Cincinnati at Florida - 7:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Arroyo (7-10, 5.28 ERA) 6-4 L10 8-3 L11 away Game 3's
Vazquez (9-9, 4.25 ERA) 1-8 L9 3-11 L14 home Game 3's




Atlanta at Chicago - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Lowe (8-11, 4.73 ERA) 7-1 L8 5-1 L6 away on Wednesdays
Wells (4-4, 5.84 ERA) 7-5 L12 UNDER 5-0 L5 home vs RHP

Braves beat Cubs, 3-0 on Monday

San Diego at San Francisco - 10:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stauffer (8-9, 3.43 ERA) 5-1 L6 OVER 5-1 L6 away Game 2's
Lincecum (11-10, 2.53 ERA) 2-5 L7 7-3 L10 home Game 2's




AMERICAN LEAGUE


Seattle at Cleveland - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hernandez (11-11, 3.38 ERA) 4-6 L10 1-7 L8 away during day
Tomlin (12-6, 4.03 ERA) 6-4 L10 1-8 L9 during day

Mariners beat Indians, 3-2 on Monday
Indians beat Mariners, 7-5 on Tuesday (G1/DH)

Kansas City at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Hochevar (8-10, 4.93 ERA) 2-7 L9 1-5 L6 away on Wednesdays
Romero (12-9, 2.73 ERA) 6-3 L9 5-0 L5 home on Wednesdays




Oakland at N.Y. Yankees - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Cahill (9-12, 4.17 ERA) 4-2 L6 1-5 L6 away on Wednesdays
Sabathia (17-7, 2.96 ERA) 6-2 L8 9-1 L10 home Game 2's




Boston at Texas - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Beckett (10-5, 2.46 ERA) 4-6 L10 13-3 L16 away Game 3's
Harrison (10-8, 3.28 ERA) 8-3 L11 3-6 L9 home Game 3's

Rangers beat Red Sox, 4-0 on Monday

Detroit at Tampa Bay - 7:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Scherzer (13-7, 4.23 ERA) 8-3 L11 1-5 L6 away Game 3's
Davis (8-7, 4.43 ERA) 9-3 L12 UNDER 7-2 home on Wednesdays

Tigers beat Rays, 5-2 on Monday

Baltimore at Minnesota - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Guthrie (5-16, 4.55 ERA) 3-8 L11 0-6 L6 away on Wednesdays
Slowey (0-1, 6.20 ERA) 3-7 L10 9-2 L11 home Game 3's

Orioles beat Twins, 4-1 on Monday

Chicago at Los Angeles - 10:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Trends Betcha Didn't Know
Stewart (1-2, 3.74 ERA) 5-3 L8 6-1 L7 away Game 2's
Weaver (14-6, 2.10 ERA) 4-0 L4 3-6 L9 home on Wednesdays

AL MVP is up for grabs!

August 18, 2011

2011 AL MVP Contenders


Justin Verlander is starting to get a little publicity not just as a Cy Young candidate but as a MVP candidate in the American League. Verlander is far from a lock for the Cy Young and certainly a long shot for the MVP however. Here is a look at the AL MVP race with just about six weeks to go in the season and five candidates that should have the best chance for the award.

Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays: The case for Bautista is a strong one, but recall that he did not win last year despite 54 home runs and 124 RBI. The big difference this season is that Bautista is no longer hitting .260, rather a robust .314. It is very unlikely that Bautista will match the HR and RBI numbers from last season but if he can hit over .300 while leading the league in home runs and OPS as he does now, it will be hard to leave him out of the conversation. The big strike against Bautista is the irrelevancy of the Jays in the playoff chase but Toronto has a winning record and has been competitive. Giving credit to players from the AL Central teams in the playoff chase seems a bit unfair considering that Toronto could be in the thick of that race if they were in that division. He will almost certainly lead baseball in walks which adds tremendous value to his profile and he has emerged as the most feared hitter in the league.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: The MVP award discussion will likely start with Gonzalez who leads the league in batting average and is second in RBI. His epic month of June when he hit .404 carried the Red Sox back to the top of AL East and while he has slowed down a bit so far in August he will end up with incredibly productive numbers on a team with one of the best records in baseball. He is also third in OBP and currently leads the AL in hits. The case can certainly be made that Gonzalez benefits from Fenway Park and a quality lineup ahead of him as Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia could also enter the MVP conversation. If his average cools down he will open the door for other candidates especially with his limited power numbers, hitting just one home run so far since the All Star break.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Playing in pitching friendly Comerica Park likely hurts Cabrera’s case as his numbers surely would be stronger if he switched roles with some of the other players on this list. Cabrera is on pace to have a very similar season to last year when he finished second in MVP voting although he will likely fall just short of his 2010 numbers in most major areas, although his on-base numbers have improved with more walks than strikeouts at this point in the year. Detroit’s rise in the AL Central and a strong stretch run to clinch a playoff spot could certainly help his cause although he will likely need to pass Gonzalez in batting average to make a really strong case.

Curtis Granderson, CF, New York Yankees: Trailing only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds in strikeouts is not the distinction of a MVP but Granderson is producing serious power numbers with 34 home runs and 95 RBI. He has been on a hot streak in August and if he keeps it going he could chase down the AL Lead in both categories. His average at just .277 leaves something to be desired for traditional voters but if he can inch closer to .300 he will have a good chance, especially with the attention he will get in New York on a playoff bound team. Granderson adds 22 stolen bases and some highlight reel defensive plays which could help him standout among this group of players. Ultimately the strikeouts and his inability to draw walks consistently should penalize him in the voting but there is an opportunity with a strong finish to the season.

Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Konerko couldn’t even make the All Star team initially so it may be tough for him to garner MVP support but if Chicago can finally make a run in the very winnable AL Central, there may be a case to be made for the often overlooked veteran with a sweet swing. Konerko is having a fine all around season batting .314 with 27 home runs and 83 RBI, putting him in the top seven in all three categories, the only player on this list that can say so. Konerko has struck out just 70 times this season and while he does not walk enough to have the glowing OBP statistics like Bautista he has delivered a very complete season. The weakness of the Chicago offense will hurt his cause as he has scored just 55 runs and his RBI numbers likely would be much higher in the middle of a stronger lineup. Still in a field with no clear choice, a great final month for Chicago could get some attention to the south side.

Others worth mention: Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Young, Asdrubal Cabrera

The case for Justin Verlander: Not since Roger Clemens in 1986 has a starting pitcher won the AL MVP award and Verlander will have a hard time getting close to the 24-wins that Clemens posted. Verlander’s 2.35 ERA is in the conversation but getting six more wins will be a big challenge in likely 8-9 starts remaining. He will likely pass Clemens in strikeouts but keep in mind Clemens lost just four times, simply an eye-popping number.

Verlander has lost five times already and realistically he is likely to lose a few more times. Clemens beat Don Mattingly soundly in the voting even though Mattingly had a season similar to what some of this year’s candidates could post so Verlander has a chance to get some momentum. The current Dodgers manager hit .352 with 31 home runs and 113 RBI. Boston beat out the Yankees to win the AL East that season, which likely gave Clemens a slight edge in the head-to-head voting, an advantage Verlander won’t enjoy with a mediocre record from the Tigers even if they win the AL Central. Clemens was also in his first full year as a starter and really caught the nation by storm with his 20-strikeout game in April of that season. Verlander did throw a no-hitter but he also looked like an idiot for his skirmish with Erick Aybar so he is not likely to get the intangible vote.

Many want to dismiss Jered Weaver after his last outing but Weaver still leads Verlander significantly in ERA. Clemens led the AL in wins and ERA by wide margins in 1986 and was just seven strikeouts short of the conventional pitching triple crown (Mark Langston). Clemens also had ten complete games, Verlander has four. Though wins have been proven to be a fairly meaningless statistic its does sway voters, so if Verlander can get to 24 he has a serious chance to earn MVP votes. Bob Welch, the last player to top 24-wins, finished ninth in MVP voting in 1990 however, behind four other pitchers including two that were on his own team.

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