5 Monday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise

Houston +138 over PITTSBURGH
Aside from the Giants, these two teams have the worst OPS in the NL since the All-Star Break. The Pirates have struck out more than anyone since the All-Star break, and by a pretty wide margin. For Houston, Henry Sosa has been solid, if unspectacular, since his debut last month. He's been a virtual lock for six innings, and he turned in his best start of the season last time out against these Pirates. A chip in the July Jeff Keppinger trade, Sosa's very good career minor-league strikeout rate suggests some untapped strikeout ability (25 in 29 IP with the Astros). He’s gaining confidence and he’s getting better with each passing start. The Pirates are 1-8 streak when they’re favored and that alone makes them a good fade. They have two wins over their past eight and James MacDonald has none of those. For the season, McDonald's numbers don't wow us. He’s always had potential and he definitely has talent. However, he’s also inconsistent and his fly-ball bias profile continues to hurt him. MacDonald has a high WHIP of 1.47 and he also has a high strand rate of 84% over the past month. He’s certainly capable of throwing a good game against the Astros but he’s just as capable of getting lit up and he and the Pirates are simply too risky to bet as the chalk. Oh, one other side note to this game is that since the Astros brought him up, Jordan Schafer is 13-for-42 (.310 BA) and is three-for-three in stolen bases. He has 18 swipes in 238 AB this season. He also turned 25 on Sunday, so his car insurance premium should go down. Play: Houston +138 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles –113 over WASHINGTON
The Nats have lost 10 of 12 while the Dodgers have won 11 of 13 and once again, as he’s been his whole career, Hiroki Kuroda is undervalued. Kuroda is the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers. Year after year, he posts solid ERAs, but has neither the wins nor the accolades to show for it. This year is another example: A 3.03 ERA and a 11-14 record. There's a good reason why Kuroda has been so good in recent years -- because his skills have been. Kuroda has a good strikeout rate and elite control. He's had some strand rate help this year, but his xERA still shows him to be a 3.50-ERA pitcher. At 36, there's certainly more downside than upside from here on out. But until further notice he remains one of the leagues most consistent and underappreciated starters. John Lannan has been really good against LH batters. Against righties he’s been awful, as he does not have a strikeout pitch against them and the Dodgers will load up here with some hot right-handed bats. Put together, Lannan’s 3.54 ERA likely will finish above 4.00 unless he can refine his approach on the fly vs. righties. That’s not likely to happen because in five years, Lannan has not been able to do that yet. Play: Los Angeles –113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).

Milwaukee +109 over ST. LOUIS
Lots has been made of the pitching prowess in Philly, San Francisco and Atlanta this year. But since the All-Star break, the NL leaders in staff ERA are the Milwaukee Brewers. That's a large reason why the Brewers have the best record in the NL in the second half. Randy Wolf began 2011 as the forgotten man in an impressive Milwaukee starting rotation. But with just under a month left in the season, he’s actually second among Brewers starters in ERA. We all know he’s not the second best starter on this club and is probably the fifth best but he wins games, he keeps the Crew in games and he and the Crew are a way better option taking back a tag than Jake Westbrook and the Cards laying one. Westbrook has thrown 161 innings and has walked 61 and struck out 84. In other words, he rarely misses a bat. He has a 4.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.50. That’s overall. At home, Westbrook has a 5.96 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In 74 innings at Busch, he’s walked 32 and struck out 41. We could write a whole page of poor stats for Westbrook, both above the surface and under them but why bother? The guy is a useless inning eater that does nothing well and his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Milwaukee +109 (Risking 2 units).

MINNESOTA +106 over Chicago (Game 1)
MINNESOTA +120 over Chicago (Game 2)
NOTE: Both games are action and not starting pitchers. The Tigers pretty much put the White Sox out of their misery over the weekend. That sweep they suffered at the hands of the Tigers is not only tough to swallow, it’s tough to rebound back from. The South Side had played 134 games going into that series and were just 5½ games out with a chance to cut it to 4½ or even 2½. They lost the opener and then blew an 8-1 lead in the second game. That took the wind out of their sail and it all came to a head yesterday when they were destroyed 18-2 and now the Twinkies know they can put the proverbial final nail in their coffin. Mentally, the White Sox vacation started after Saturday’s loss and now they have to play the dreaded double-header. They play this pair with little or no motivation and they’ll also play it with a taxed bullpen. In the opener, Philip Humber makes his first start in 17 days after coming off the DL with a head injury. Humber was a huge 1H surprise and at one point finished seven IP in nine of 10 starts. But in his six 2H starts, Humber has posted a 5.94 ERA and that lines up with his very average stuff. Anthony Swarzak isn’t better than Humber. He has a 4.14 ERA in just six starts and would not be in the rotation had Francisco Liriano not gotten hurt. However, let’s forget the starters in both games, as this has nothing to do with them. The Twins were out of this thing by the end of April, a month into the season. They’ve played for nothing all season but they finally get to bring some misery to someone else and that someone else is their most hated rival, the Chicago White Sox. Don’t think for a second that the Twins won’t be amped right up to dig that grave. Play: Minnesota +106 (Risking 2 units). Play: Minnesota +120 (Risking 2 units).
 

Bulldog Mentality
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very good read of Chisox-Twins ... thanks for posting & GL (<)<
 

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