4 Tuesday w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise

Arizona +104 over COLORADO
Josh Collmenter has outpitched Jason Hammel by a wide margin lately and definitely has an advantage in this matchup. Actually, just about everyone has outpitched Hammel. Manager Jim Tracy recently decided to drop Hammel from the Rockies' rotation. That decision did not come as much of a shock to anyone that followed the Rocks, since Hammel has struggled with his control all season and at the time he sported a 5.24 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Hammel has been absolutely awful against left-handed hitters, as not only can’t he get them out, but he can’t even throw strikes against them. The perception is that Collmenter has struggled after posting a sub-2.00 ERA during the season's first 2½ months. In reality, what happened in June, July and August is simply an expected ERA correction, pushing Collmenter closer to his 3.91 xERA. There are still solid skills here, as demonstrated by pinpoint control, outstanding command a WHIP of 1.05. Collmenter has a 1.47 ERA over his last three starts. The D-Backs remain red-hot and have a great chance keeping it going against a brutal pitcher in Jason Hammel. Play: Arizona +104 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco –104 over SAN DIEGO
Eric Surkamp held Houston to one run in six innings during his MLB debut 10 days ago and gets another shot here. His performance at Double-A has been very impressive. The kid is 6'4", 190 pounds and the lefty spots his entire arsenal well, led by his excellent curveball and changeup. Surkamp knows how to pitch and stays ahead of hitters consistently. His fastball only sits between 85-90 mph, but he has some deception, which conceivably adds a few ticks to his heater. He's been able to tally strikeouts in the minors, though he’s not expected to have that same strikeout rate in the Majors. Surkamp is also a fly-ball pitcher and given his lack of velocity, he has little margin for error. Regardless, with his pitching shrewdness, he could succeed and you can’t ignore his career 2.89 ERA and .213 BAA in the minors. This is an interesting prospect and one that could thrive in San Fran. One thing we know for sure is that he has about a million times more upside than Wade Leblanc. Leblanc keeps earning his way back to the minors whenever he gets called up. Even with the "PETCO push," LeBlanc’s skills are dreadful. He walks too many, he has a huge fly-ball bias profile, he can’t get lefties out (.844 OPS against him) and he has an ERA of 5.14 and a 5.27 ERA over the past month. Yeah, both teams can’t hit but LeBlanc could make any team look like the Yankees. Play: San Francisco –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Atlanta +114 over PHILADELPHIA
When you list the biggest surprises of the 2011 season, one name that will rise to the top will be Vance Worley. Despite spending lots of time learning the roads between Philadelphia and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Worley has the highest winning percentage of the heralded Phillies' rotation. What should we expect moving forward? The Phillies have won the last thirteen games Worley has started, the longest Phillies streak since Steve Carlton won the Cy Young in 1972. Worley is good ... he's just not this good: Worley's xERA suggests he is a fine pitcher ... not the elite pitcher that his current ERA suggests. Worley's hr/f will eventually gravitate to its natural level and so will his ERA. It's hard to argue with that WHIP, but as Worley's hit rate also continues to gravitate back to its natural level, this, too, shall rise. Worley's got decent command of his pitches (90-mph sinker, slider, changeup and cut-fastball) and the ability to strike out major league batters, but nothing that blows us away. At just 23 years of age, Worley looks like he has a nice career in front of him. While the talented youngster with the flowing mohawk and the designer goggles is good, he’s not the second coming of Roy Halladay and not many pitchers, ever, have gone this long without a loss. Play: Atlanta +114 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +141 over WASHINGTON
Wow, talk about an overreaction to a single anticipated start and one need not look further than this game. Back to Stephen Strasburg in a minute but let’s first discuss Ted Lilly. He’s 9-13 with a 4.39 ERA. That doesn’t look too good but a rough start to the year really hurt his ERA. Fact is, Lilly has a 2.51 ERA over his last five starts. The guy has elite control with 40 walks in 162 innings and he’s really no different than he’s been in the past. When Lilly’s career is over, someone is going to look back on it and say, “Wow, this guy was really good year after year after year”. A win tonight would give him double-digits for the ninth consecutive year, but nobody cares because he's pitching against Stephen Strasburg. Look for Strasburg to be on a rather strict pitch limit, diminishing his chances of a win, particularly if he's not efficient and there’s no guarantee that he will be. Strasburg posted a 5.02 ERA in five rehab starts and don’t think for a second that the Dodgers won’t be fired up to face him. Still, Strasburg does have elite skills and is a gem in the makings. The problem is, this start isn’t about a win. It’s about getting in a few innings, maybe four or five, and getting prepped for major-league level competition. Big time overlay. Play: Los Angeles +141 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Hey Sherwood, was just wondering if you'll be posting your NFL Season Wins Over/Unders on your website this year?

Thanks man.
 

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