Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.82 Units
Last 30 Days 29 52 3 -34.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 185 234 5 -39.20 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Atlanta +128 over PHILADELPHIA
Over the last five starts or the whole month of August, no pitcher in the majors flashed better skills than Brandon Beachy. Over his last five starts, covering 30 innings, Beachy whiffed 40 batters and walked seven. He posted an ERA of 3.00 (2.41 xERA), and a WHIP of 1.00. A slightly unfavorable 33% hit rate and 67% strand rate in August kept his ERA nearly one ER higher than his 2.54 xERA Overall, the Braves have won five of his past seven starts and on the year, Beachy has a BAA of .233. This guy is as worthy as any pitcher in the league of taking back a tag, even against the Phillies. Then there’s Roy Oswalt. Oswalt’s numbers are ok but he’s a fraction of the pitcher he once was. He has a below average WHIP of 1.41. His strikeout rate is way down from previous years and that, too, is below average with 69 k’s in 104 frames. Also note that Oswalt’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 35%/38%/38% is rather disturbing, as those percentages are not in Oswalt’s favor. Come playoff time, don’t expect to see Oswalt on the hill, as this guy is running on fumes. Play: Atlanta +128 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +130 over OAKLAND
3:30 PM EST. Pay no attention to Guillermo Moscoso’s surface stats (3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 102 IP). You simply cannot hide behind good surface stats for an extended period of time with the kind of stuff that Moscoso possesses. Moscoso isn’t even average. He’s a complete stiff that is going to go on a Barry Zito-like run at some point and we’re not going to miss it when he’s favored. Moscoso is a ticking time bomb, one who has been hit hard time after time after time but the numbers don’t show it because the balls are hit right at people. His awful strikeout rate, lousy command, 56% fly-ball%, and 5.16 xERA are all on the wrong side of acceptable. His pure luck is going to run out soon. We’re not even going to discuss Chen because it doesn’t matter. This one is all about taking back some weight against Moscoso, as a good hitting team like the Royals should do some real damage against him. Play: Kansas City +130 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +130 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are a bad favorite to begin with and you can times that by 10 with a guy like Brian Burres pitching. Buress has been in the minors all year and recently replaced Jeff Karstens (on DL) in the Pirates rotation. He started against the Cubs last Friday and gave up one run in five frames. That’s very nice because had he been whacked, we would not be offered this price. Trust us; Burres will get whacked hard in more starts than not. So, before pulling the trigger on Pittsburgh, consider Burres' lackluster MLB career to this point, as well as his 4.66 ERA (6.75 xERA), 1.43 WHIP and borderline command at Triple-A Indianapolis this year. Last year Burres went 4-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 79 IP for the Bucs. Burres is here to accomplish one thing and one thing only and that’s to save some innings on some of the Pirates young arms. There's really nothing here worth analyzing, except perhaps why he still keeps getting work. This is a ridiculous line on a game that at the very least should be a pick-em. Play: Houston +130 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +115 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Carpenter's numbers against the Brewers this season: 1-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP; Zack Greinke's against the Cards: 2-0, 3.46, 1.15. Is there anything more to say? When you can take back a tag on Grienke and the Brewers you do so and that’s all there is to it, especially against anyone not named Halladay, Hamels, or Lee. Play: Milwaukee +115 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 29 52 3 -34.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 185 234 5 -39.20 Units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise
Atlanta +128 over PHILADELPHIA
Over the last five starts or the whole month of August, no pitcher in the majors flashed better skills than Brandon Beachy. Over his last five starts, covering 30 innings, Beachy whiffed 40 batters and walked seven. He posted an ERA of 3.00 (2.41 xERA), and a WHIP of 1.00. A slightly unfavorable 33% hit rate and 67% strand rate in August kept his ERA nearly one ER higher than his 2.54 xERA Overall, the Braves have won five of his past seven starts and on the year, Beachy has a BAA of .233. This guy is as worthy as any pitcher in the league of taking back a tag, even against the Phillies. Then there’s Roy Oswalt. Oswalt’s numbers are ok but he’s a fraction of the pitcher he once was. He has a below average WHIP of 1.41. His strikeout rate is way down from previous years and that, too, is below average with 69 k’s in 104 frames. Also note that Oswalt’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 35%/38%/38% is rather disturbing, as those percentages are not in Oswalt’s favor. Come playoff time, don’t expect to see Oswalt on the hill, as this guy is running on fumes. Play: Atlanta +128 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +130 over OAKLAND
3:30 PM EST. Pay no attention to Guillermo Moscoso’s surface stats (3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 102 IP). You simply cannot hide behind good surface stats for an extended period of time with the kind of stuff that Moscoso possesses. Moscoso isn’t even average. He’s a complete stiff that is going to go on a Barry Zito-like run at some point and we’re not going to miss it when he’s favored. Moscoso is a ticking time bomb, one who has been hit hard time after time after time but the numbers don’t show it because the balls are hit right at people. His awful strikeout rate, lousy command, 56% fly-ball%, and 5.16 xERA are all on the wrong side of acceptable. His pure luck is going to run out soon. We’re not even going to discuss Chen because it doesn’t matter. This one is all about taking back some weight against Moscoso, as a good hitting team like the Royals should do some real damage against him. Play: Kansas City +130 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +130 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates are a bad favorite to begin with and you can times that by 10 with a guy like Brian Burres pitching. Buress has been in the minors all year and recently replaced Jeff Karstens (on DL) in the Pirates rotation. He started against the Cubs last Friday and gave up one run in five frames. That’s very nice because had he been whacked, we would not be offered this price. Trust us; Burres will get whacked hard in more starts than not. So, before pulling the trigger on Pittsburgh, consider Burres' lackluster MLB career to this point, as well as his 4.66 ERA (6.75 xERA), 1.43 WHIP and borderline command at Triple-A Indianapolis this year. Last year Burres went 4-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 79 IP for the Bucs. Burres is here to accomplish one thing and one thing only and that’s to save some innings on some of the Pirates young arms. There's really nothing here worth analyzing, except perhaps why he still keeps getting work. This is a ridiculous line on a game that at the very least should be a pick-em. Play: Houston +130 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +115 over ST. LOUIS
Chris Carpenter's numbers against the Brewers this season: 1-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP; Zack Greinke's against the Cards: 2-0, 3.46, 1.15. Is there anything more to say? When you can take back a tag on Grienke and the Brewers you do so and that’s all there is to it, especially against anyone not named Halladay, Hamels, or Lee. Play: Milwaukee +115 (Risking 2 units).
