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Thread: Odds falling satellite will hit human: 1 in 3,200....... wow what would be the line ???

  1. #1 Odds falling satellite will hit human: 1 in 3,200....... wow what would be the line ??? 
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    http://www.space.com/12999-dead-nasa...h-sept-23.html

    A dead climate satellite that has been circling Earth for 20 years will make a fiery death plunge this week, with some pieces of the 6 1/2 ton spacecraft expected to reach the surface of the planet, NASA officials say.


    The bus-size Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, will likely plummet down to Earth sometime around Friday (Sept. 23), according to NASA's latest projections. There is a 1-in-3,200 chance that UARS debris could hit a person, though NASA considers that scenario extremely remote.
    "Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day," NASA officials wrote in an update posted Sunday (Sept. 18). That means that by Saturday (Sept. 24), the UARS satellite should slam into Earth's atmosphere and break apart. [Photos: Space Debris & Cleanup Concepts]
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  2. #2  
    RX Wizard Mr_Mark's Avatar
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    Which part of the world is it suppose to crash into?
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  3. #3  
    RX Wizard Mr_Mark's Avatar
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    1-32k ??
    I thought the odds would be much higher. Guess I have a better chance of getting killed by a falling satellite than winning the lotto
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  4. #4  
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Mark View Post
    Which part of the world is it suppose to crash into?

    many big pieces of it are expected to survive the atmosphere
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  5. #5  
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Mark View Post
    1-32k ??
    I thought the odds would be much higher. Guess I have a better chance of getting killed by a falling satellite than winning the lotto

    not 32K

    3200
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  6. #6  
    powdered milkman steak tartar's Avatar
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    with my luck it if i bet it it would land on my bookie
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  7. #7  
    RX Wizard Mr_Mark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dante View Post
    not 32K

    3200
    Oh Geez thats even worse lol
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  8. #8  
    Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit barman's Avatar
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    So with those supposed odds, approximately 1000 people could get crushed if it lands in North America
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  9. #9  
    RX Wizard Mr_Mark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barman View Post
    So with those supposed odds, approximately 1000 people could get crushed if it lands in North America
    This sounds like a tragedy waiting to happen
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  10. #10  
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    +1900??? someone gets hit?
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  11. #11  
    RX Wizard celticGreen's Avatar
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    I'll be at the bar. It can find me there.
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  12. #12  
    RX Senior RobFunk's Avatar
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    theres so much space junk it doesnt surprise me
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  13. #13  
    Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit barman's Avatar
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    If some debris dropped on John Lackey, the Red Sox pitching staff would improve by at least 20%
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  14. #14  
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barman View Post
    if some debris dropped on john lackey, the red sox pitching staff would improve by at least 20%

    lol
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  15. #15  
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  16. #16  
    "Here we go again" Say Hey Kid's Avatar
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    -350,000 no
    +300,000 yes.

    would be fair odds.

    Hopefully the no is successful.
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  17. #17  
    RX Local VIEJO DINOSAUR's Avatar
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    I know a few posters in forumland that I wish got hit....
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  18. #18  
    "WIN" Bourn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steak tartar View Post
    with my luck it if i bet it it would land on my bookie
    I'm wondering if you have bad luck or good luck. Is that you have such good luck that you won't have to pay him or you have such bad luck he'd die before he paid you?
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  19. #19  
    RX Local trytrytry's Avatar
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    3.33-1 water over land..
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  20. #20  
    RX Senior Jabow's Avatar
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    the odds have now dropped, I will be staying inside tonight and tomorrow, they gave some odds that were very high earlier, and now at 11;15pm EST, the odds have now dropped tremendously, my advise, stay home,

    walking, driving, single story homes and apartments and even planes are in danger, they can give all the odds they want, but a possible 1100 pounds or more falling from the sky is very dangerous, a damn baseball falling from a 50 strory building is very dangerous, so go figure



    forget them, say inside
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  21. #21  
    RX Wizard celticGreen's Avatar
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    from NASA guy:

    "Keep in mind, they won't be traveling at those high orbital velocities. As they hit the air, they tend to slow down. ... They're still traveling fast, a few tens to hundreds of miles per hour, but no longer those tremendous orbital velocities,"

    ...how does this help anybody?
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  22. #22  
    "Here we go again" Say Hey Kid's Avatar
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    If they were traveling the speeds they were before they hit air they would be going fast enough where they would take down surrounding infrastructure, trees, etc. solely on impact.

    Pretty much the only way a person will die is if it lands on them, their house,their car. etc..

    It puts the cards blowing a 4 run 9th inning lead against the mets two days ago in perspective when you consider bad beats.

    Hopefully they miss all humans.
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  23. #23  
    RX Local trytrytry's Avatar
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    over under 3am eastern
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  24. #24  
    RX Local Dante's Avatar
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    UPDATE... put your umbrellas away


    Safe From NASA Satellite Falling: UARS Fell Over Pacific Ocean


    By David magee | September 24, 2011 8:39 AM EDT
    Those around the world afraid that NASA's falling UARS satellite might come crashing down upon them can rest easy. NASA said the satellite initially penetrated the Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. Most of it is believed to have burned up.





    NASA has not confirmed where it landed, but the agency has said re-entry occurred during a two-hour period.
    The agency says the 35-foot satellite fell sometime between 11:23 p.m. EDT and 1:09 a.m. EDT. NASA said the precise time or location isn't known yet, but there have been no reports on land as of Saturday morning of impact to people or property.
    The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is the biggest NASA spacecraft to make an uncontrolled crash into Earth since 1979.
    But there never was a big concern that NASA's falling satellite would hit a person. The odds were "very modest," according to one expert.
    "You're way more likely to be hit by lightning" than by the satellite, Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass. told The Wall Street Journal.
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