Exbookie wants to help the players week 3

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]bankroll start $75,000.00
Investment 1-3 -$4405.00
action 3-5 -$995.00

total 4-8 -$5400 or -5.4 units


Parly sports wager give a huge advantage to the sportbooks!!!
back in the days that I book sports I love when the players bet Parlays.
With parlays, if one game is not a win,or at least a tie,you can say so
long to the entire bet.

true odds to the sportsbook

three teams pay 6-1 with the house edge of 12.50%
4 teams pay 10-1 with a 31.25% edge to the books
5 team its pays 20-1 edge to the book 34.38 %

on any sporting bet where you wager 11 to win 10 its just 4.55%

dont you think it's tough enough to win one game against the spread, let alone 5
as I look at others in this foruming playing those parlay...I wish I was a bookie again.


Stats vs ATS

home 17
away 14

dogs 15
fav 16

Over 23 must be because of the lockout!!!
under 9


points that matter 6 out of 32 games 19%



more to come

Ace

Ace Thanks for all your hard work. So Will you please post the CFB Totals system now that week 3 is over. This system has done well in the past. Thanks again

Are we going to see 2 INV plays as well this week? One is system and the other one is ur personal invst play?

Confession.pt3 said:

Are we going to see 2 INV plays as well this week? One is system and the other one is ur personal invst play?

Click to expand...

two 411 plays this week...but only one Investment play... all system kick in 100% in week 4...that will be the week where I may have 3 investment play.

Power Rankings – Week 3


1. Green Bay Packers (2-0) – We will find out if the Packers were looking ahead to Chicago last week or if they are starting to try to coast a bit. Green Bay is 5-2 straight up and against the spread in its last seven meetings with Chicago and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to Soldier Field.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) – Pittsburgh dominated a completely overmatched Seattle team last week in a strong bounce-back situation. But their offensive line was again terrible and was pushed around by a weak Seattle front four. The Steelers are just 2-5 ATS the week after a win of 14 or more points and they are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more. However, they are facing “Kookie” Collins and the shell-shocked Colts this week, so if Pittsburgh surrenders more than 13 points this week I will be stunned.
3. New Orleans Saints (1-1) – This week’s game against Houston is a bit of a regional rivalry game. New Orleans has looked fantastic in its first two weeks and they should get Will Smith (suspension) and Tracy Porter (injury) back this week. There are still some holes on this Saints defense, and they did not defend Matt Forte either running or receiving last week. But New Orleans is 10-3-1 ATS as a nondivisional home favorite and I look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder this week.
4. New York Jets (2-0) – Losing Nick Mangold (ankle) is a big blow to this offensive line. The Jets will face a very impressive Oakland front four this week without their leader and with Mark Sanchez (shoulder) already banged up. This is the first of three straight road games for the Jets. They have to avoid looking past Oakland to dates with rivals Baltimore (Rex Ryan’s old team) and New England (no explanation needed). The Jets have played in Oakland 10 times in the last decade and they are just 3-5 both SU and ATS in their trips to The Black Hole.
5. New England Patriots (2-0) – Yes, I lowered New England’s rating this week. I had said after last week that I was not at all impressed with their defense. And after watching them get chewed up by San Diego (who, in true Chargers fashion, were their own worst enemy with four turnovers) I have to hold firm that the Patriots aren’t as good as they seem. That said, they simply cannot be stopped on offense and they absolutely own Buffalo. Despite facing monster spreads, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Bills.
6. San Diego Chargers (1-1) – This team has the talent and scheme of a Top 5 team. But they will never reach their potential with Norv Turner as a head coach. It is as simple as that. And just like Tampa Bay dumped Tony Dungy – another good-but-not-great coach – to allow Jon Gruden to get them over the hump, the Chargers should have ditched Turner last year in order to move forward this season. San Diego is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games against the Chiefs but they are also just 2-8 ATS as a favorite of over 10 points.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) – The Eagles and their backers can’t use Mike Vick’s injury as any type of excuse; that is part of the package when you accept the fast and fragile quarterback as your starter. My gut instinct is that Vick will not play this week against the Giants – and that Mike Kafka will do just fine. Philadelphia is shuffling the pieces on its linebacker crew, moving Casey Matthews out of middle in favor of Jamar Chaney. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are going to be tough to back this week despite their ownership of the Giants recently.
8. Detroit Lions (2-0) – Generally, Everyone’s Sleeper Team comes out and falls on its face. Not Detroit. They have been playing like maniacs this entire season and they are now 10-0 SU and ATS in their last 10 games, dating back to last year and including the preseason. That is absolutely amazing. This team has been dominating and I don’t see a single sign of them slowing down. Detroit is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 conference games and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 overall. All that said, this will likely be one of the squarest bets on the board this week.
9. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) – Last week’s loss in Tennessee is exactly why I am not a John Harbaugh fan. One week after demolishing Pittsburgh the Ravens came out and played a sloppy, uninspired game against a slightly overmatched, but motivated, opponent and were blown out. The Ravens are 14-6 ATS against sub-.500 teams and they have a situational edge over St. Louis with the Rams off a MNF loss. But with a home game against the Jets on deck we’ll have to see how focused this team is.
10. Chicago Bears (1-1) – Chicago ran 52 pass plays to just 11 rushes last week against New Orleans. Apparently, this surprises people despite the fact that Mike Martz is running the offense. The Bears can’t protect the quarterback, they don’t have great wide receivers, and they have a mistake-prone quarterback. Other than that, the offense is fine. Chicago’s defense played better than the final numbers suggested last week in New Orleans. But they will need to be even better this week against a razor-sharp Green Bay crew. Chicago is 5-2 ATS at home but they are just 8-20 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal.
11. Houston Texans (2-0) – If Houston really is a contender they will have to prove it this week. The Texans played hapless Indianapolis at home and then shell-shocked Miami last week. And, to be honest, were it not for two turnovers and two botched, short field goals the Dolphins could have won that game. This will also be the first real test for the retooled Texans defense. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and just 4-9-1 ATS after an ATS win.
12. Atlanta Falcons (1-1) – There are few teams in the NFL that I have been less impressed with than Atlanta through two weeks. Last weekend was a Super Bowl game for the Falcons (home opener, Vick’s return, etc.) and they were dominated. Were it not for some bad Philly red zone turnovers, a favorable replay review, Vick’s injury, and a blown 10-point lead, Atlanta would be 0-2 with a pair of double-digit losses on their resume. This is a good team but I don’t see them as a threat.
13. New York Giants (1-1) – While losing Dominik Hixon for the year doesn’t help the Giants passing game this guy wasn’t exactly Andre Johnson. The Giants have not beaten the Eagles since 2008 and have lost six straight meetings both SU and ATS. However, the road team in this series is 9-3 ATS and the underdog is 11-2 ATS. With or without Vick I expect the Eagles to be laying out points here.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) – I guess at some point all of those fluke fourth quarter comebacks (and covers) by this group have to stop being called “flukes”. Tampa was totally outplayed in Minnesota last week but hung with it, made some plays when they needed to, and came through in the clutch once again. The Bucs are in a great spot this week, catching an overrated Atlanta team in a letdown situation. Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in the last eight with the Falcons and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in this series. Tampa is just 5-17 ATS at home, but I expect this team to be sky-high for a piece of their division rival.
15. Washington Redskins (2-0) – Kyle Shanahan proved once again why he is a loser and has no idea how to manage a game while calling the offense. With Washington in range for a game-winning 34-yard field goal and just 1:56 to play, Shanahan had Rex “Turnover Machine” Grossman drop back to pass on third-and-four instead of simply pounding the ball on the ground. Washington gained five yards per carry for the game (4.9) and would have made Arizona burn its last timeout. Instead, Grossman threw incomplete and Shanahan was bailed out when Kevin Kolb was intercepted. It is those types of mistakes that will keep this team in the third tier.
16. Dallas Cowboys (1-1) – Dallas has dominated its opponents for seven of nine quarters this season. But injuries are starting to take their toll and that was one of my biggest criticisms of this team coming into the year: their 22 starters are as good as anyone in the league, but because they have overpaid for some many guys they have zero depth. Dallas has a lot of things working against them from an ATS standpoint this week: the Cowboys are just 2-7 ATS against Washington recently, the home team is just 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings, and the favorite is just 6-21 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
17. Tennessee Titans (1-1) – When this team is making a run in the AFC South, just remember who was driving the bandwagon. They played well last week and one week after being physically dominated by Jacksonville they went blow-for-blow with Baltimore. This team should be 2-0 right now and I don’t think they have hit their stride yet. But Matt Hasselbeck is missing too many throws down the field. If he becomes more accurate this offense is going to explode, because he is just floating too many balls up for grabs down field.
18. Buffalo Bills (2-0) – The Bills have been underdogs by an average of 10 points per game in their last 10 meetings with the Patriots. They have been dogs of 9.0 or more in three of the last four meetings, but have covered a pair of those games. Buffalo’s secondary has been one of, if not THE, most underrated units in football over the last two years. They will have a chance to earn a lot of respect against the New England wrecking crew this week…but I don’t see it happening. The Bills are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.
19. Oakland Raiders (1-1) – I will give some credit: this team is a little better than I thought. The veteran presence on its defense has started to take root. But that said, as easily as they could be 2-0 right now they could just as easily be 0-2. And their second-half collapse against Buffalo last week was what we have come to expect from this franchise. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog but they are just 5-21-2 ATS as an underdog of a field goal or less.
20. Minnesota Vikings (0-2) – I don’t mean to pile on – especially because I have long been a Donovan McNabb supporter – but the Vikings are just some better quarterback play away from being 2-0. Their pass rush has been fierce and the running game is potent. Minnesota gave up second half leads in each of their first two games but, trust me, after looking at the film there is a lot to like about what this team is doing.
21. St. Louis Rams (0-2) – Sam Bradford was terrible on Monday night and that was the most throws that I have seen him miss in his 18-game career. The bigger problem with this group is injuries. They have had five corners go on injured reserve since the start of training camp and they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for pass defenders. Steven Jackson may be back this week – which would be a huge help – but even if he does he won’t be 100 percent. Even if this team has been shackled with a brutal schedule they are overrated, as indicated by their 1-5 ATS mark in their last six outings.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) – Blaine Gabbert gets the nod for the Jaguars this weekend, and in doing so becomes the 20th quarterback in the last 20 NFL drafts to be selected in the Top 10 and then be named a starter during his rookie year. Regardless, I expect Jacksonville to continue to pound the ball on the ground (37.0 rush attempts per game)., especially against a Carolina front that has two rookie defensive tackles and are down a couple key linebackers.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-1) – I still can’t be sure whether Arizona’s rush defense was that bad last week or whether Washington’s running game was that good. Arizona better hope for the latter because their front seven was dominated. However, I liked the moxie I saw out of this team, competing in what was really a poor spot for them. Arizona has double-revenge after being swept by the Seahawks last year, but the visitor in this series is just 3-7 ATS.
24. Denver Broncos (1-1) – Denver continues to be decimated by injuries, particularly at the receiver position. But they received some good news this week with some guys (Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno, Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams) all back on the practice field on Wednesday. I believe all four will play this Sunday. However, I am not sure this team is at all ready to go on the road and compete.
25. Miami Dolphins (0-2) – The Dolphins may be a little underrated right now. This team still has some young talent and they have faced two of the best teams in the conference (New England and Houston) in a span of six days. Miami competed with Houston, and could have won were it not for an abundance of errors. But bad karma is setting in over this locker room and they are making mistakes because their coach and their quarterback are both sketchy. Miami is playing for its season this week. They are 11-5 ATS as an underdog and they are 9-2 ATS as a road dog.
26. San Francisco 49ers (1-1) – Early season stats in any sport are full of statistical anomalies. But in my opinion the biggest in the NFL through two games is that the Niners have scored 57 points while accumulating just 415 yards. That 7.28 yards per point mark is kind of like someone hitting 95 percent of their three-pointers or hitting .850 in Major League Baseball. The Niners are a West Coast team faced with an early local start this week and they are 0-7-2 ATS as a dog of a field goal or less.
27. Cleveland Browns (1-1) – Have the Cleveland Browns been favorites in three straight weeks since the Bernie Kosar Era? I am sure that they have, but it is still odd to see the Browns as a chalk pick for the third time already this year. I think Pat Shurmur is being way too conservative with his offensive approach, as Colt McCoy is throwing nearly everything underneath. It looks identical to what Shurmur was doing with Sam Bradford last season in St. Louis, but I’m not sure about its effectiveness in the AFC North. Cleveland is just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
28. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) – Offensively, the Bengals have been much better than I expected, notching 49 points in just two games while outgaining both of their opponents on the road. However, the Bengals have committed 18 penalties on defense (third-most in the league) and continue to be the undisciplined mess we’ve come to expect from a Marvin Lewis-led group. Also, Lewis’s decision to go for two in the third quarter was one of the worst coaching maneuvers of the weekend. This guy has proven time and time again that he has no business being an NFL coach. I can’t believe this team is laying points this week, and the Bengals are 6-21 ATS as a favorite and 8-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
29. Carolina Panthers (0-2) – All the buzz around this team is about Cam Newton’s incredible start to his career. But I think that has overshadowed the bigger story: that starting linebackers, and the two best defensive players/leaders that this team has, Thomas Davis and Jon Beason have both gone down for the year in back-to-back weeks. This team has one of the worst collections of defensive talent in the league and they will be playing from behind all season long. That should lead to inflated numbers for Newton.
30. Indianapolis Colts (0-2) – Kerry Collins better handle the blitz this week better than he did last year. Cleveland didn’t bring pressure a lot against Collins, but he made terrible throws and bad decisions every time that they did, including two of his turnovers coming versus the blitz. Indianapolis did not play poorly last week – and they still lost by 15 points at home to a third-tier team. That’s a really bad sign.
31. Seattle Seahawks (0-2) – Yuck. There is absolutely nothing to like about this team. But they always get a nice bump playing at home and they should play their best football of the year this week in their home opener. The problem is: will that be good enough? Seattle is just 8-20 ATS as an underdog (although they are 7-3 ATS at home). Robert Gallery has been lost for at least a month and the vultures are circling Tarv Jackson. Just bad things going on here.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) – The 2010 season must seem like a lifetime ago for this group. And when you have been outscored 89-10 and outgained by 296 yards in two games it is pretty clear that you are the worst team in football. Including the preseason this team is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games. However, they are 10-2 ATS as an underdog if 10.5 points or more.

ACE... thanks for sharing your power rankings. will you post it weekly throughout the season?

madison69 said:

I really like greenbay and arizona, what to you think.

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hahaha Man i wonder what he thinks of them

How much does it cost to post to this forum?

adttm said:

How much does it cost to post to this forum?

Click to expand...

Do you have anything to share

madison69 said:

I really like greenbay and arizona, what to you think.

Click to expand...

OpW said:

hahaha Man i wonder what he thinks of them

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i guess he didn't see that post he'll post that info before kickoff just check back

Good luck with your picks this week ACE, whatever they are. For the record, I made 4 plays, curious what your opinion is of them:

Miami +2.5 over CLEVELAND: Miami is one of those weird teams that seems to lose at home and win on the road. That was certainly the case last year and this year they have started 0-2 at home so this seems to be a nice spot for them to pick up their first win. Cleveland doesn't have much of a home field advantage IMO here so I predict a lower-scoring game but one where Miami gets the W.

RAIDERS +3.5 (-120) over Jets: This game seems too easy but Oakland has a good defense and Sanchez has struggled on the West Coast in the past. As long as Oakland can avoid turnovers and stupid penalties, they should win this game outright but having the hook here might be the key to winning this game.

SAINTS -3.5 over Texans: Foster isn't going to play much and this seems like a fairly cheap price to pay to go against a Houston team that struggles against good teams (except when they play Colts with Manning). Houston has gotten out to nice starts the last couple of years before their invetiable collapse but I think their 2-0 run ends here in New Orleans.

Lions -3 (-120) over VIKINGS: I typically don't like taking road FG favorites but I think Detroit is still being undervalued and they will prove that they are for "real" when they dominate the Vikings. Vikings coming off their horrific second half collapse against the Bucs last week and I think they will still be in a fog when this game starts - I expect an early 14-0 lead and the Lions will not be threatened and will be 3-0 for the first time in a long time.

I will post Ace -ace plays for him.

CHARGERS 2200-2000

Lions 1100 - 1000

The big slug plays of the day

Downtown Mickey Brown said:

I will post Ace -ace plays for him.

CHARGERS 2200-2000

Lions 1100 - 1000

The big slug plays of the day

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not close.......but I would like my home town lions to win

Nick Bogdanovich: What Sharps are Thinking in the NFL

Time once again to take a look at what sharps (professional wagerers in Las Vegas) are thinking about this week in pro football. As always, we'll take the games in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule and follow along through the weekend.
SAN FRANCISCO AT CINCINNATI: Sharps hit the opener of Cincinnati -1 fairly hard here, moving the number up to Cincinnati -2.5. There was a boatload of sharp money ready to hit San Francisco at +3. But, breaking news late in the week about a couple of Bengals receiving as shipment of marijuana at their house dampened the enthusiasm of the Cincinnati money. It probably won't get to the key number of three now. Sharps will either their keep their position on the Bengals against the early line, or buy off the game with a longshot at a middle if they get cold feet because of the off-field distractions. Sharps thinking the 49ers might offer some value will look at including them in two-team teasers at +8.5 because the six-point move at the current price crosses both the three and the seven.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The big news here was on the total...where an opener of 50 has moved all the way up to 54 as of press time. That 50 was a bad opener. Buffalo played a 38-35 game with Oakland last week. New England has landed on 62 and 56 so far. The weather isn't going to be bad. Looks like Chan Gailey's finally got the Buffalo offense moving. Respect for that offense did bring in some Buffalo money at +9 on the team side. We're seeing -8.5 now in some places. The public will probably like New England on game day at anything below 10. And, the public would LOVE putting New England in two-team teasers at -2.5. I'd be surprised if the line finished at -8.5 across the board.
HOUSTON AT NEW ORLEANS: Support for Houston as an opener of +5.5 is down to +4. The Texans look to have improved on defense (though it's hard to judge against the Colts and Dolphins)...and they certainly have an offense that can come through the back door if they're trailing late. Houston is 2-0 straight up and ATS this season...and I've talked to many sharps who think the Texans have a real shot to be very good this year. They're not taking them as a "default winner of the South just because Peyton Manning is out for the Colts. These guys think Houston can win a playoff game or two.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: This game was off the board most of the week pending the status of Michael Vick. It looks like he's going to play...resulting in a line that's more than a touchdown but less than 10 points for the home favorite. Sharps will be looking to take the Giants if they see a +10 (and maybe even at a +9 if that's the best they're going to get). On the other hand, sharps will be looking at Philadelphia at -1.5 to -2.5 in two-team teasers if the team side number settles in the strike zone.
MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: Cleveland's line move is mirroring Cincinati's. They opened at -1..and sharps hit the home favorite at value, knowing they'd come back over the top if the number moved up to a full field goal. Miami isn't playing well, so you can't trust them as a short dog. But, Cleveland's not good enough to lay -3 over a non-patsy right now. If the line moves to three, sharps will hit Miami. If it stays at -2.5, then sharps will take Miami in two-team teasers (there could be a lot of basic strategy teaser teams in the sweet spot this week)...while also keeping their position on Cleveland -1 because it's +EV in their view.
DENVER AT TENNESSEE: Big support for Tennessee here, as an opener of -4.5 moved all the way up to -6.5 or -7 depending on where you shop. Denver money tends to come in at +7 though...which means we'll probably settle just below that key number. Tennessee impressed sharps last week with their dismantling of Baltimore. If you watched the game, you know the Titans were truly dominant in that matchup, to a surprising degree. Denver hasn't covered a spread yet despite playing two home games at cheap prices vs. probable non-playoff teams. These are two of the biggest movers in respected Power Ratings since the days before the season started. Denver has been downgraded quite a bit. Tennessee is being taken more seriously.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: Not much action yet in this one. The total has gone up from 43.5 to 45 because Detroit's showing a much improved offense this season. The team side line of Detroit -4 as a road favorite has come down to -3.5 Not enough support for the home dog to get it down to the key number of three though.
JACKSONVILLE AT CAROLINA: Big move on the total, with an opener of 40 rising all the way up to 43. Some of that is because Cam Newton has thrown for so many yards. And, some of that is that scoring has shot so far up this year thus far in the NFL that sharps will hit any number that looks vulnerable. Maybe we'll see high 30's when the best defenses play each other. When the weather gets worse in November and December, totals will drop. Right now, guys are looking for reasons to bet Overs. Sportsbooks have been getting hurt on totals because the public mostly only plays Overs.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: Not much interest here. There are some old-timers who bet every double digit dog on principal. That's dropped the line from Kansas City +15 to +14.5. That's generally a good principal by the way if you look up ATS records for double digit dogs! Only a trend guy could bet the Chiefs right now...as they've lost by 34 and 45 points thus far.
NY JETS AT OAKLAND: We have a game kind of locked within a half a point of the key number of three here. Remember last year we had weeks where it seemed like half the card was like this? Hasn't happened as much in 2011. If a sportsbook puts up Jets -3, then money comes in only on the Jets. If they move the line to Jets -3.5, then money comes in only on the Raiders. That creates a ping pong match with the half point. And, it basically asks each individual sportsbook who they want to root for in the game. You can't "split the action" in a spot like this. The market won't allow it.
BALTIMORE AT ST. LOUIS: Baltimore opened at -3.5 and went up to -4. So, we DIDN'T see a ping pong match here with a line of -3.5 being down to -3. That tells you something. St. Louis has injuries and hasn't looked very good. Baltimore is in a bounce-back spot after a bad game. There was enough sharp sentiment to drive the line away from the critical number. Little St. Louis sentiment out there to this point.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: We've flipped favorites here...as Tampa Bay opened at +1 but is now -1.5 in most places as we go to press. Few games land on zero because of overtime...so that's not as big a move as it might seem. But, it does tell you that Tampa Bay is getting respect from smart money (and that there's skepticism about Atlanta this year). This also gives us another game in the teaser window, as you can move the Falcons up past the three and the seven.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: This game is a match for Jets/Raiders at the moment. Arizona money was coming in at -3...but when it went to -3.5 a lot of respected sharps stepped in with some authority. This number was as low as -1 or -1.5 back when the earliest openers were posted last Sunday. Some places didn't come up until it was already clear Arizona was going to get support at low numbers because Seattle's looked so horrible with Tavaris Jackson. The total has moved from 41.5 up to 43.
GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO: We're seeing Green Bay -3.5 or -4 everywhere. Not enough support for the Bears to bring the line down to a field goal. Enough respect for the Bears at home after their big win over Atlanta (and don't forget a win over New England last year!) to keep the road favorite price from floating too high. This may be a game where the action comes close to being split before kickoff. It's the big afternoon TV game...and Chicago is the kind of team that will get support from the public as a dog. The public generally prefers favorites...but a handful of teams can bust that tendency.
PITTSBURGH AT INDIANAPOLIS: What an ugly Sunday Night game! An opener of Pittsburgh -11 has dropped to -10.5 because of the old school money that fades every double digit favorite. Not much action otherwise. We'll see some game day money because this is the prime time TV matchup. But, this may end up being the least bent Sunday Nighter of the season.
WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: A long delay with this game because Tony Romo's status has been up in the air. The Cowboys will probably be priced just under a touchdown if he plays. Sharps will probably do what they can to find out how healthy he's really going to be before they make any moves. An extra day helps with that.

NFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, September 25

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 138-104 ATS (+23.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-102 ATS (+30.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 2) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 0) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 30-61 ATS (-37.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/25/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 135-100 ATS (+25.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/25/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 26

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WASHINGTON (2 - 0) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/26/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 3

Sunday, 9/25/2011

SAN FRANCISCO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-1 Over Away after allowing 450+ total yds
CINCINNATI: 1-11 ATS as a favorite

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 16-3 Over in all games
BUFFALO: 29-9 ATS off win by 3 pts or less

HOUSTON at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 6-0 Under on turf
NEW ORLEANS: 14-28 ATS in 2nd of BB Home games

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 0-4 ATS vs. Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA: 11-2 Under after scoring & allowing 30+ pts last game

MIAMI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 13-28 ATS off BB home games
CLEVELAND: 20-7 Under as home fave of 3 pts or less

DENVER at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 22-10 Over after allowing 300+ yds passing
TENNESSEE: 12-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 3-14 ATS as road favorite
MINNESOTA: 2-9 ATS as an underdog

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 11-2 ATS after scoring 6 pts or less
CAROLINA: 8-0 Under as home favorite

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 10-2 ATS as double digit underdog
SAN DIEGO: 2-6 ATS in September

NY JETS at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
NY JETS: 2-11 ATS off BB home wins
OAKLAND: 6-0 Over at home vs. AFC

BALTIMORE at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 7-0 ATS after being outgained by 200+ yds
ST LOUIS: 41-24 Over vs. AFC

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
ATLANTA: 27-8 ATS Away after allowing 400+ yds
TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

ARIZONA at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 16-5 Under as road favorite
SEATTLE: 7-19 ATS as underdog

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Under as a road favorite of 7 points or less
CHICAGO: 16-5 Under as an underdog

PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PITTSBURGH: 12-3 ATS if the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
INDIANAPOLIS: 23-39 ATS at home off SU loss

Monday, 9/26/2011

WASHINGTON at DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
WASHINGTON: 33-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
DALLAS: 11-0 Over on turf

Trend Report
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Sunday, September 25

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. TENNESSEE
Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games at home
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CAROLINA
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 13 games at home
Carolina is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the NY Jets last 12 games on the road
NY Jets are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games on the road
Oakland is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay

4:15 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh

Monday, September 26

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Why 49ers cover: Call them resourceful. The Niners led the favored Cowboys almost the entire game last week despite getting outgained by a mile. San Fran ultimately lost in OT, but Cincinnati is no Dallas. Niners 11-4-3 ATS last 18 after a non-cover; Bengals 6-21 ATS last 27 as chalk.

Why Bengals cover: Cincy has beaten spread five straight times; San Fran 1-4 ATS last five on road. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was solid in close loss at Denver and will finally have fans behind him, in Cincy’s home opener.

Total (40.5): Both San Fran and Cincy have gone over total in both games this year, and over has hit in four straight for Niners. Bengals on 4-1 over run at home.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

Why Dolphins cover: Because they get to leave Miami. Fish have cashed eight of last 10 on road and nine of last 11 as a road pup. Cleveland on five-game ATS dive at home.

Why Browns cover: Have grabbed the cash in last four meetings with Miami. Dolphins also 5-15-2 ATS last 22 in September.

Total (41): Over 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six at home, but under 6-2 in Miami’s last eight on highway.

New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills

Why Patriots cover: Uh, they have Tom Brady. Does that about cover it? If not, well, Brady & Co. own Bills ATS, going 7-2 last nine overall (all as chalk) and 5-0 last five in Buffalo. In fact, visitor has cashed last five.

Why Bills cover: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard, 2005) less talented than Brady, but had higher ACT score. Buffalo 7-3 ATS last 10 inside AFC.

Total (53): Can total be set high enough for high-flying Pats? Over 18-3 in New England’s last 21 overall.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-X)

Why Giants cover: Not facing Michael Vick would help, but status of Eagles QB still uncertain. Underdog 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings, road team 9-3 ATS last dozen meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Because they control Tom Coughlin and Co., having bagged last six SU and ATS. Giants QB Eli Manning hardly gave inspired Monday night performance vs. Rams, even in victory.

Total (XX): Philly gets ball up and down field all day long, scoring 31 in each of first two games. Over 11-4 in Eagles’ last 15 overall, and over 10-3 in Giants’ last 13 NFC East tilts.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Why Lions cover: Detroit a favorite on road for first time in, well, a long time. Preseason may not count in standings, but it does at betting window: Lions are 10-0 SU and ATS last 10 times they’ve taken field.

Why Vikings cover: More a Detroit negative than a Minnesota positive, as Lions on 0-8 ATS purge as road favorite, as rare as that role may be.

Total (45.5): Under has hit last six in this rivalry.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Why Texans cover: Cashed in four of past five September starts. QB Matt Schaub and wideout Andre Johnson remain a big-time combination.

Why Saints cover: QB Drew Brees has already faced two playoff teams in first two weeks (Packers, Bears), and he’s been sterling, with six TDs, no picks and no fumbles. New Orleans 4-1 ATS last five at home dome; Houston 1-6 ATS last seven getting points.

Total (53): Both offenses have ability to put up points. Over on 6-0 run with Houston as a pup. Still, under 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five at home.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Compelling reasons hard to find for Denver, which has been one of worst teams in league ATS the past few years. But Titans just 3-9 ATS last dozen following a SU win.

Why Titans cover: After weak effort in opener vs. Jaguars, Tennessee took down powerhouse Ravens in Week 2 as 5.5-point home underdog. Titans 12-4 ATS last 16 in September. RB Chris Johnson due for breakout, and Denver just the cure – Broncs 28th vs. rush (131.0 ypg).

Total (42): Over hit in last four Broncos-Titans meetings, nine of Denver’s last 12 roadies and nine of Tennessee’s last 12 at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Cam Newton’s play is shadowing an ugly spot in Carolina’s game: Its defense. The Panthers are giving up 406.5 yards per game.

Why Panthers cover: Jags will also start rookie in Blaine Gabbert, after Luke McCown put up a whopping 1.8 QB rating vs. Jets last week, throwing four INTs. Newton, though mistake-prone, has looked good, racking up more than 400 yards in each of first two starts.

Total (43): Under 7-0 in Panthers’ last seven laying points, but over 8-2 in Jags’ last 10 road games.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Seriously? Well. K.C. is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times it was catching more than 10 points. And Chiefs could be catching double digits a lot this year.

Why Chargers cover: Chiefs are flat-out awful. In fact, to call them awful might be an insult to all that is awful. K.C. has been outscored 89-10 over first two weeks – by Buffalo and Detroit.

Total (45.5): Under has hit in five straight at home for San Diego.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams

Why Ravens cover: Should be fuming after mustering just 13 points in road loss to Titans. St. Louis 1-5 ATS last six overall. Rams find red zone a dead zone – three drives inside 10-yard line vs. Giants yielded only FGs.

Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford, in second year, clearly has tools to be standout NFL starter. St. Louis a fair bounce-back bet, at 8-3 ATS last 11 after non-cover.

Total (41.5): Over has been play in four straight when Ravens coming off SU loss.

New York Jets (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops on bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 12-5 on highway and 6-1 as road chalk.

Why Raiders cover: Oakland has covered both games this year and should be 2-0 SU, but imploded after taking 21-3 lead vs. Bills last week. Running game, behind Darren McFadden, racking up 160.5 ypg, which could help keep Jets off field.

Total (41): Lots of trends point to the over. Jets on 15-5-1 over surge in last 21 roadies. Over has hit in five of last six overall for Oakland and four straight Raiders home games.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Cardinals cover: Seahawks think Tarvaris Jackson is NFL-caliber starting QB. Or maybe Pete Carroll is trying to boost chances in Andrew Luck sweepstakes come next year’s draft.

Why Seahawks cover: Seattle gets comforts of home stadium, after spending first two weeks losing SU and ATS on road. Home team 7-3 ATS last 10 in this rivalry. Cards failed to cash in last five NFC West outings and are 3-9 ATS last 12 on road.

Total (43): In this division rivalry, over 10-4 in last 14 meetings, but under hit four of last five in Seattle.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

Why Packers cover: Defending Super Bowl champs know this field well – they beat Chicago 21-14 in last season’s NFC title game at Soldier Field. In fact, Pack has been solid bet on last 13 trips to Windy City, going 10-3 ATS.

Why Bears cover: Big-time revenge game, not just for Chicago as a team, but for QB Jay Cutler, who took heavy ridicule after leaving NFC title game with injury.

Total (45.5): These two teams play-low scoring games when they square off. Total has gone low in seven straight Pack-Bears affairs and has been the play in four straight at Soldier Field.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Why Falcons cover: QB Matt Ryan back on track, coming off career-high four-TD performance in win vs. Eagles. Bucs 5-17 ATS last 22 at home. Road team scored ATS win in last five Falcons-Bucs tilts.

Why Buccaneers cover: QB Josh Freeman & Co. Can ill-afford to drop first two home games. In this NFC South rivalry, chalk 7-3 ATS last 10, and Tampa 6-2 ATS last eight.

Total (45.5): Under 8-3 in Bucs’ last eight division contests, but over 5-0-1 in Falcons’ last six roadies.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Why Steelers cover: No Peyton Manning. Indy a shell of itself without four-time MVP quarterback. Pittsburgh has covered five straight from favorite’s role, and Indy 1-6 ATS last seven at home dome.

Why Colts cover: A 10.5-point home dog? That’s a lot of points, even without Manning, and Colts are 9-2 ATS last 11 catching more than 10 points – though they’re almost never pups of that magnitude.

Total (39.5): Over 5-1 in Steelers’ last six overall and in Colts’ last six following pointspread loss.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-X)

Why Redskins cover: Washington expected to finish last in NFC East, yet off to 2-0 SU and ATS start. QB Rex Grossman actually looks serviceable – about as ringing an endorsement as can be given. Dallas 1-5 ATS last six Monday nighters; Redskins on 4-0 ATS run vs. Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Romo tough to keep down, playing with aforementioned injuries in OT win at San Francisco. And Cowboys finally get game in front of home fans, after spending first two weeks on road. Washington 0-4 ATS in last four Monday nighters.

Total (XX): The dome that Jerry Jones built seems to produce plenty of points. Over has hit nine straight at Cowboys Stadium.

I think everyone will be surprised on Ace's releases this week.

Only one of the four spreads at 7 or above will be involved.

Ace, How are you doing in the Hilton contest? What is your record? Good luck today.


Capt.

capt said:

Ace, How are you doing in the Hilton contest? What is your record? Good luck today.


Capt.

Click to expand...

4.5 points out of 10....not the best start...but lots of weeks to go

no 411 play in the early games

only 3 for the early games...all action



$600.00 Take #410 Carolina (-3.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
Jacksonville will be starting rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert this weekend in Carolina. The Panthers now have the edge at the QB position because Cam Newton has already gotten the jitters out after two games and he has been brilliant in those pair of games against Arizona and Green Bay. Carolina looked great last week while building a 13-0 lead over Carolina. If the Panthers are good enough to take it to the defending Super Bowl champions like that they should have more than enough here to dominate a bad Jaguars team. Newton will keep it going against the worst defense that he has faced yet and I like the home team to win this one big.
$600.00 Take #398 Buffalo (+9.5) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
The Bills are ready to compete! After getting blown out many times over the last several years the Bills have their best team yet and they are ready to compete with the Patriots. Orchard Park will be rocking this weekend when Tom Brady comes to town. That extra energy will help to keep the momentum from last weekend's last-second win over Oakland. The Patriots will be taking all of the action in this game but I will side with the books on this one. Buffalo may not win but I expect them to hang around in the fourth quarter and they will take advantage of a weak New England secondary to get some points on the board. This one stays within the number. Take the points.
$800.00Take #396 Cincinnati (-2.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 25)
The Bengals have quietly put themselves in a position to earn a tie for the AFC North lead after three weeks. This team was able to get rid of a lot of guys with bad attitudes during the offseason and I think that they have better chemistry in the locker room. After two straight road games I think that the Bengals will get a big boost from being at home. San Francisco has to travel across the country and is playing in a big letdown spot. They had Dallas beaten and could have gone to 2-0. But they gave that game away late and now they have no motivation for this game here against the Bengals. I like the home team to win by a touchdown.