Early Week 3 NFL betting trends
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.
LAS VEGAS -- A lot of sisters got kissed in Week 2 of the Hilton SuperContest.
The two most popular plays last week by the 517 entrants were the Dallas Cowboys minus-3 versus the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills minus-3 versus the Oakland Raiders. A whopping 208 (40.2 percent of the field) were riding the Cowboys with only 41 liking the prospects of the 49ers, while 164 took the Bills to only 25 for the Raiders in what was the highest-percentage play of the week.
In the early games Sunday, the invading Raiders jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead before the Bills circled the wagons (no one does that like them, or so I've heard) and escaped with a 38-35 victory for a push on the 3-point spread, or the proverbial tie that is like kissing your sister.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants that put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->But that was nothing compared to the swing of fortune in the Cowboys-49ers game. The 49ers led 24-14 more than midway through the fourth quarter before Tony Romo, who was seemingly out of the game with a fractured rib, rallied the Cowboys into overtime. SuperContestants with the Cowboys minus-3 were hoping for the unlikely TD in overtime to actually pull out the cover, and it looked like they were going to get it when Romo hit wide receiver Jesse Holley deep over the middle, and he was in the clear. Unfortunately, he was dragged down at the 1-yard line.
I was in the Hilton Theater when it happened and there were still close to 1,000 people watching the last game of the afternoon with a lot of their tickets tied to the Cowboys. Those bettors were going nuts, yelling for Dallas to punch it in, but Dan Bailey kicked the winning 19-yard field goal for yet another push.
When the dust had settled, there were 438 pushes to be divvied up among the SuperContestants, or an average of 0.847 apiece. The rest of the top consensus plays didn't fare much better. The No. 3 choice was the Baltimore Ravens minus-5.5 versus the Tennessee Titans (chosen by a 148-49 margin by SuperContestants but with the Titans pulling the 26-13 outright upset). The Atlanta Falcons did come through as the fourth choice of 145 players, but the Washington Redskins minus-3.5 versus the Arizona Cardinals; the San Diego Chargers plus-7 versus the New England Patriots; and the Green Bay Packers minus-9.5 versus the Carolina Panthers were also big losers.
The consensus only went 7-7-2 against the spread, which was actually better than the 6-9-1 posted in Week 1, though we've seen more of the top plays go down in flames. If the Buccaneers, plus-3 versus the Vikings, hadn't rallied from their 17-0 halftime deficit to win and cover 24-20, the carnage would have been even worse.
Usually after two weeks of the season, someone has put together a 10-0 start or at least a few people are 9-1, but this year, with the combined record of all contestants having a second straight losing week (1,036-1,101, or 48.5 percent, against the spread after tossing out the pushes), the leaders are Sans Souci and Pagermager with records of 8-1-1 for 8.5 points (wins are worth one point and pushes worth a half). Mister P. and Treasure Hunter are the only other players with 8 points. The leaderboard is going to be very clustered when the updated standings are posted here.
Where the money is going in Week 3?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wise guys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>• In this space last week, we mentioned that the Lions would be a popular play again after going 12-4 against the spread last year and opening the season with a win over the Buccaneers. They came through once again for their 93 backers with a dominating 48-3 win over the Chiefs. With the Lions on a seven-game, spread-covering streak dating back to last season (their last non-cover was Thanksgiving Day versus the Patriots), there's no reason to think they won't be a popular play this week as 3.5-point favorites at Minnesota.
• However, as also mentioned last week, be leery about laying points on the road in the NFL, a lesson learned by backers of the Packers and the Ravens last week. In fact, after going 3-2 in Week 1, home underdogs went 3-2-1 in Week 2 (and that push was the 49ers, so it very easily could have been 4-2). In addition to the aforementioned Vikings plus-3.5 versus the Lions, this week's other home dogs to consider are the upstart Bills plus-8.5 versus the Patriots, the Raiders plus-3 versus the Jets, the Rams plus-4.5 versus the Ravens, the Seahawks plus-3.5 versus the Cardinals, the Bears plus-3.5 versus the Packers and the Colts plus-10.5 versus the Steelers.
• Laying double digits in the NFL is usually death to one's bankroll, but the 108 SuperContestants who took the Steelers minus-14 versus the Seahawks got away with it last week, as Pittsburgh cruised to a 24-0 victory. The Steelers are again double-digit faves at minus-10.5 versus the Colts on Sunday night (after opening minus-10 at the Hilton on Sunday), and bettors will have to decide if they're going to try to buck both the road favorite and double-digit favorite traps. The Chargers are also minus-14.5 versus the Chiefs. That line opened minus-13 Sunday and has steamed past the two-touchdown mark, so you know not many people are looking to back the Chiefs.
• One prediction I made in this space last week that didn't quite pan out as expected was when I wrote that Patriots backers would "likely be willing to lay anything under a TD at home" versus the Chargers. By the time the contest lines came out Wednesday, the line had been bet up to 7 points and SuperContestants actually voted 134-43 in favor of the Chargers with the increased points, but the Patriots still came away with the spread-covering 38-24 victory in the end. Those thinking the Patriots are poised to go on another run like they did in 2007 will probably have no problem laying the minus-9 versus the Bills (bettors have had no problem laying the minus-8 so far, as the line has been pushed to minus-8.5), even though they're on the road and the Bills are improved.
• Other significant line moves include the Browns coming down from the opening number of minus-3 versus the Dolphins to minus-2.5 (meaning money came in on the Dolphins, taking it off the key number of three), the Titans going from minus-6.5 favorites versus the Broncos up to the key number of minus-7, the Panthers going from minus-2.5 and crossing the key number to minus-3.5 versus the Jaguars and the Cardinals going from minus-1.5 all the way to minus-3 favorites versus the Seahawks.
Familiar names struggling
It's early, but a lot of familiar names have a lot to ground to make up. Defending champ Richard Stand is 2-6-2 (3 points) after going 0-3-2 in Week 2, losing with the Bears, Redskins and Ravens. Fezzik, the only two-time Hilton champ -- winning it back-to-back in 2008 and 2009, stands at 4-5-1. He went 2-2-1 in Week 2, and he needed big rallies by the Bills and Bucs to even do that well. Jarhead, another former champ that a lot of people follow because of his consistent high finishes, is also 4-5-1. But a lot of sharps are taking solace that they're all in the same boat and that they'll right the ship (heck, I have to believe that, as my ViewFromVegas.com entry is at 4-6).
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene, including the Hilton SuperContest, since 2000 for Daily Racing Form and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com. In 2006, his story on how quickly the Vegas sports books reacted to Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle accident in changing the odds on the Steelers for that upcoming season was named "Best News Story" by the Professional Football Writers of America, the only time a gambling story has won a PFWA award. Follow Dave on Twitter here.
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.
LAS VEGAS -- A lot of sisters got kissed in Week 2 of the Hilton SuperContest.
The two most popular plays last week by the 517 entrants were the Dallas Cowboys minus-3 versus the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills minus-3 versus the Oakland Raiders. A whopping 208 (40.2 percent of the field) were riding the Cowboys with only 41 liking the prospects of the 49ers, while 164 took the Bills to only 25 for the Raiders in what was the highest-percentage play of the week.
In the early games Sunday, the invading Raiders jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead before the Bills circled the wagons (no one does that like them, or so I've heard) and escaped with a 38-35 victory for a push on the 3-point spread, or the proverbial tie that is like kissing your sister.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants that put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->But that was nothing compared to the swing of fortune in the Cowboys-49ers game. The 49ers led 24-14 more than midway through the fourth quarter before Tony Romo, who was seemingly out of the game with a fractured rib, rallied the Cowboys into overtime. SuperContestants with the Cowboys minus-3 were hoping for the unlikely TD in overtime to actually pull out the cover, and it looked like they were going to get it when Romo hit wide receiver Jesse Holley deep over the middle, and he was in the clear. Unfortunately, he was dragged down at the 1-yard line.
I was in the Hilton Theater when it happened and there were still close to 1,000 people watching the last game of the afternoon with a lot of their tickets tied to the Cowboys. Those bettors were going nuts, yelling for Dallas to punch it in, but Dan Bailey kicked the winning 19-yard field goal for yet another push.
When the dust had settled, there were 438 pushes to be divvied up among the SuperContestants, or an average of 0.847 apiece. The rest of the top consensus plays didn't fare much better. The No. 3 choice was the Baltimore Ravens minus-5.5 versus the Tennessee Titans (chosen by a 148-49 margin by SuperContestants but with the Titans pulling the 26-13 outright upset). The Atlanta Falcons did come through as the fourth choice of 145 players, but the Washington Redskins minus-3.5 versus the Arizona Cardinals; the San Diego Chargers plus-7 versus the New England Patriots; and the Green Bay Packers minus-9.5 versus the Carolina Panthers were also big losers.
The consensus only went 7-7-2 against the spread, which was actually better than the 6-9-1 posted in Week 1, though we've seen more of the top plays go down in flames. If the Buccaneers, plus-3 versus the Vikings, hadn't rallied from their 17-0 halftime deficit to win and cover 24-20, the carnage would have been even worse.
Usually after two weeks of the season, someone has put together a 10-0 start or at least a few people are 9-1, but this year, with the combined record of all contestants having a second straight losing week (1,036-1,101, or 48.5 percent, against the spread after tossing out the pushes), the leaders are Sans Souci and Pagermager with records of 8-1-1 for 8.5 points (wins are worth one point and pushes worth a half). Mister P. and Treasure Hunter are the only other players with 8 points. The leaderboard is going to be very clustered when the updated standings are posted here.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Where the money is going in Week 3?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wise guys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>• In this space last week, we mentioned that the Lions would be a popular play again after going 12-4 against the spread last year and opening the season with a win over the Buccaneers. They came through once again for their 93 backers with a dominating 48-3 win over the Chiefs. With the Lions on a seven-game, spread-covering streak dating back to last season (their last non-cover was Thanksgiving Day versus the Patriots), there's no reason to think they won't be a popular play this week as 3.5-point favorites at Minnesota.
• However, as also mentioned last week, be leery about laying points on the road in the NFL, a lesson learned by backers of the Packers and the Ravens last week. In fact, after going 3-2 in Week 1, home underdogs went 3-2-1 in Week 2 (and that push was the 49ers, so it very easily could have been 4-2). In addition to the aforementioned Vikings plus-3.5 versus the Lions, this week's other home dogs to consider are the upstart Bills plus-8.5 versus the Patriots, the Raiders plus-3 versus the Jets, the Rams plus-4.5 versus the Ravens, the Seahawks plus-3.5 versus the Cardinals, the Bears plus-3.5 versus the Packers and the Colts plus-10.5 versus the Steelers.
• Laying double digits in the NFL is usually death to one's bankroll, but the 108 SuperContestants who took the Steelers minus-14 versus the Seahawks got away with it last week, as Pittsburgh cruised to a 24-0 victory. The Steelers are again double-digit faves at minus-10.5 versus the Colts on Sunday night (after opening minus-10 at the Hilton on Sunday), and bettors will have to decide if they're going to try to buck both the road favorite and double-digit favorite traps. The Chargers are also minus-14.5 versus the Chiefs. That line opened minus-13 Sunday and has steamed past the two-touchdown mark, so you know not many people are looking to back the Chiefs.
• One prediction I made in this space last week that didn't quite pan out as expected was when I wrote that Patriots backers would "likely be willing to lay anything under a TD at home" versus the Chargers. By the time the contest lines came out Wednesday, the line had been bet up to 7 points and SuperContestants actually voted 134-43 in favor of the Chargers with the increased points, but the Patriots still came away with the spread-covering 38-24 victory in the end. Those thinking the Patriots are poised to go on another run like they did in 2007 will probably have no problem laying the minus-9 versus the Bills (bettors have had no problem laying the minus-8 so far, as the line has been pushed to minus-8.5), even though they're on the road and the Bills are improved.
• Other significant line moves include the Browns coming down from the opening number of minus-3 versus the Dolphins to minus-2.5 (meaning money came in on the Dolphins, taking it off the key number of three), the Titans going from minus-6.5 favorites versus the Broncos up to the key number of minus-7, the Panthers going from minus-2.5 and crossing the key number to minus-3.5 versus the Jaguars and the Cardinals going from minus-1.5 all the way to minus-3 favorites versus the Seahawks.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Familiar names struggling
It's early, but a lot of familiar names have a lot to ground to make up. Defending champ Richard Stand is 2-6-2 (3 points) after going 0-3-2 in Week 2, losing with the Bears, Redskins and Ravens. Fezzik, the only two-time Hilton champ -- winning it back-to-back in 2008 and 2009, stands at 4-5-1. He went 2-2-1 in Week 2, and he needed big rallies by the Bills and Bucs to even do that well. Jarhead, another former champ that a lot of people follow because of his consistent high finishes, is also 4-5-1. But a lot of sharps are taking solace that they're all in the same boat and that they'll right the ship (heck, I have to believe that, as my ViewFromVegas.com entry is at 4-6).
Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene, including the Hilton SuperContest, since 2000 for Daily Racing Form and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com. In 2006, his story on how quickly the Vegas sports books reacted to Ben Roethlisberger's motorcycle accident in changing the odds on the Steelers for that upcoming season was named "Best News Story" by the Professional Football Writers of America, the only time a gambling story has won a PFWA award. Follow Dave on Twitter here.
