Flaws in Eagles 'dream' scenario
The offseason acquisitions were sound, but evidence shows some overrated moves
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
This week will finally see the release of the much anticipated movie "Moneyball," based on the classic book by Michael Lewis.
As rightfully celebrated as the book is, one easy but somewhat justifiable criticism of the movement it spawned in baseball is that the progenitors of the approach (Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics) have yet to win, or even make it to, a World Series.
That may illustrate one weakness of leaning too heavily on the low-cost/high-value personnel approach. It can make a team quite competitive during the regular season, but when the postseason comes around, a team has to have some heavier hitters if it wants to claim the ultimate victory in a sport. When the sample size shrinks, dominant talent matters a little more.
This is something the Philadelphia Eagles may have had in mind when they put together their 2011 offseason player acquisition plan. The Eagles may not have pinched pennies quite as hard as the A's over the years, but they did have similar results. Their cost-conscious, build-mostly-through-the-draft ways have led to plenty of success but have also thus far not produced a title.
The recurring postseason disappointments meant Philadelphia needed more elite talent than its current methods were producing, so the team went about acquiring a slew of players that eventually became known, for better or worse, as the "Dream Team."
There is one notable problem: The acquisitions that brought along the "Dream Team" comment from Vince Young may form the most overrated group of players in the NFL.
<OFFER>
It all starts with the most highly publicized offseason signing, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.
The conventional book on Asomugha is that his coverage skills are so superior that few teams will throw passes at him.
There's an element of truth to that, as Asomugha has finished as the least-targeted cornerback in pro football for each of the past three seasons. But that may be as much due to the Oakland Raiders' defense, Asomugha's previous team, as anything else. Oakland allowed more rushing yards in 2008-10 than any other team in the NFL, so its opponents could pound the ball on the ground to their hearts' content and not have to worry about throwing at Asomugha.
There is also the fact that when Asomugha has been thrown at over the years, his coverage metrics don't exactly spell Darrelle Revis.
His backers will say this is because of the low sample size, but check out Asomugha's composite coverage metrics during the past seven years:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Nnamdi Asomugha against the pass
Asomugha's success defending the pass, based on his numbers from the past seven seasons.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Season</TH><TH>Att.</TH><TH>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Three-hundred pass attempts ought to be enough to get past the low sample size argument. Since the league average for yards per attempt (YPA) is usually around 7.5, Asomugha's 7.0 YPA in this time frame means he is somewhat above average but not anywhere near Revis' level (career 5.3 YPA).
Since this coverage trend has also continued through two games with Philadelphia (86 yards allowed on six pass attempts), it is not a stretch to say that Asomugha may be the most overrated player in the NFL.
Similar arguments can be made for the some of the other Dream Teamers:
Steve Smith, WR
He wasn't exactly a tremendously productive wideout for the New York Giants last year (7.2 YPA, tied for 67th out of 90 qualifying wide receivers) and yet New York's management is taking a verbal beating for not re-signing him.
New York's biggest issue with Smith was that it thought he would not be ready to play until October; he thought he would be ready to go earlier than that. Well, it's two games into the season and Smith has been targeted three times thus far, so the Giants look to have been right about his early season effectiveness.
Ronnie Brown, RB
Brown was let go by Miami in large part because he was one of the least productive backs in the league last year on plays with good blocking (which is loosely defined as when the blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt).
His 5.3 GBYPA (good blocking yards per attempt) was tied for next-to-last among running backs with 100 or more carries last year.
Vince Young, QB
Young's time with the Tennessee Titans was chock-full of office politics and injuries, and those factors eventually led in part to Jeff Fisher's departure.
That doesn't bode well for Young, but the fact that he barely beat out Mike Kafka for the backup quarterback role before the season may say even more. Kafka is currently the No. 2 quarterback, as Young was inactive for the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.
This is not to say that the Eagles' offseason acquisitions weren't smart moves. Signing Smith weakened a divisional foe, Asomugha gave Philadelphia a quality starter at right cornerback (something it severely lacked most of last season), Young and Brown were both signed to fairly cap-friendly deals, and the combination of Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins vastly upgraded the defensive line.
The issue is that Young's comment raised the perception bar for this group well above what it should be. To say that this collection of mostly ancillary players puts the Eagles into the all-time great status that the words "Dream Team" connotes is simply not accurate.
They are just as they were before these players arrived, a very talented team that still has something to prove in the postseason. Unless and until they do that, the "Dream Team" appellation should be avoided.
The offseason acquisitions were sound, but evidence shows some overrated moves
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
This week will finally see the release of the much anticipated movie "Moneyball," based on the classic book by Michael Lewis.
As rightfully celebrated as the book is, one easy but somewhat justifiable criticism of the movement it spawned in baseball is that the progenitors of the approach (Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics) have yet to win, or even make it to, a World Series.
That may illustrate one weakness of leaning too heavily on the low-cost/high-value personnel approach. It can make a team quite competitive during the regular season, but when the postseason comes around, a team has to have some heavier hitters if it wants to claim the ultimate victory in a sport. When the sample size shrinks, dominant talent matters a little more.
This is something the Philadelphia Eagles may have had in mind when they put together their 2011 offseason player acquisition plan. The Eagles may not have pinched pennies quite as hard as the A's over the years, but they did have similar results. Their cost-conscious, build-mostly-through-the-draft ways have led to plenty of success but have also thus far not produced a title.
The recurring postseason disappointments meant Philadelphia needed more elite talent than its current methods were producing, so the team went about acquiring a slew of players that eventually became known, for better or worse, as the "Dream Team."
There is one notable problem: The acquisitions that brought along the "Dream Team" comment from Vince Young may form the most overrated group of players in the NFL.
<OFFER>
It all starts with the most highly publicized offseason signing, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.
The conventional book on Asomugha is that his coverage skills are so superior that few teams will throw passes at him.
There's an element of truth to that, as Asomugha has finished as the least-targeted cornerback in pro football for each of the past three seasons. But that may be as much due to the Oakland Raiders' defense, Asomugha's previous team, as anything else. Oakland allowed more rushing yards in 2008-10 than any other team in the NFL, so its opponents could pound the ball on the ground to their hearts' content and not have to worry about throwing at Asomugha.
There is also the fact that when Asomugha has been thrown at over the years, his coverage metrics don't exactly spell Darrelle Revis.
His backers will say this is because of the low sample size, but check out Asomugha's composite coverage metrics during the past seven years:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
Nnamdi Asomugha against the pass
Asomugha's success defending the pass, based on his numbers from the past seven seasons.
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Season</TH><TH>Att.</TH><TH>
Inc./Off Pass Int. Pen.
</TH><TH>Yards</TH><TH>YPA</TH><TH>Success Rate</TH><TH>INTs</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>2004</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>14
</TD><TD>413</TD><TD>8.1</TD><TD>27.5%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2005</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>36
</TD><TD>435</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>52.2%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2006</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>33
</TD><TD>421</TD><TD>6.9</TD><TD>54.1%</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2007</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>22
</TD><TD>244</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>62.9%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2008</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>15
</TD><TD>162</TD><TD>5.4</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2009</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>9
</TD><TD>228</TD><TD>9.1</TD><TD>36.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2010</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>15
</TD><TD>191</TD><TD>6.6</TD><TD>51.7%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Total</TD><TD>300</TD><TD>144
</TD><TD>2094</TD><TD>7.0</TD><TD>48.0%</TD><TD>11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- end inline 1 -->
Three-hundred pass attempts ought to be enough to get past the low sample size argument. Since the league average for yards per attempt (YPA) is usually around 7.5, Asomugha's 7.0 YPA in this time frame means he is somewhat above average but not anywhere near Revis' level (career 5.3 YPA).
Since this coverage trend has also continued through two games with Philadelphia (86 yards allowed on six pass attempts), it is not a stretch to say that Asomugha may be the most overrated player in the NFL.
Similar arguments can be made for the some of the other Dream Teamers:
Steve Smith, WR
He wasn't exactly a tremendously productive wideout for the New York Giants last year (7.2 YPA, tied for 67th out of 90 qualifying wide receivers) and yet New York's management is taking a verbal beating for not re-signing him.
New York's biggest issue with Smith was that it thought he would not be ready to play until October; he thought he would be ready to go earlier than that. Well, it's two games into the season and Smith has been targeted three times thus far, so the Giants look to have been right about his early season effectiveness.
Ronnie Brown, RB
Brown was let go by Miami in large part because he was one of the least productive backs in the league last year on plays with good blocking (which is loosely defined as when the blockers do not allow the defenders to do anything to disrupt the rush attempt).
His 5.3 GBYPA (good blocking yards per attempt) was tied for next-to-last among running backs with 100 or more carries last year.
Vince Young, QB
Young's time with the Tennessee Titans was chock-full of office politics and injuries, and those factors eventually led in part to Jeff Fisher's departure.
That doesn't bode well for Young, but the fact that he barely beat out Mike Kafka for the backup quarterback role before the season may say even more. Kafka is currently the No. 2 quarterback, as Young was inactive for the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury.
This is not to say that the Eagles' offseason acquisitions weren't smart moves. Signing Smith weakened a divisional foe, Asomugha gave Philadelphia a quality starter at right cornerback (something it severely lacked most of last season), Young and Brown were both signed to fairly cap-friendly deals, and the combination of Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins vastly upgraded the defensive line.
The issue is that Young's comment raised the perception bar for this group well above what it should be. To say that this collection of mostly ancillary players puts the Eagles into the all-time great status that the words "Dream Team" connotes is simply not accurate.
They are just as they were before these players arrived, a very talented team that still has something to prove in the postseason. Unless and until they do that, the "Dream Team" appellation should be avoided.
