meh don't like it.
(all these numbers are my opinion)
66% of the time the Braves win the Wild card, so 33% the Cards win
That 33% of the times they face the D'backs. Probably 75% of the time they have home field. They'll win 55% if they have home field, 45% if not. 13.6% of the time they will face the D'Backs at home in round one and win, and 3.7% of the time they are on the road and win to advance to the NLCS, for a total of 17.3% In the NLCS, they face the Phillies on the road 50% of the time, and the Cardinals at home 50% of the time. If they face the Phillies, they have a 40% chance of winning, and the Cards they're at 54%, so they advance to the WS through the Phillies 3.46% of the time and through the Cards 4.67% of the time, for a total of 8.13% of the time advancing to the World Series if the Cards win the Wild Card.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, the Brewers face them in the first round 75% of the time. They win that series 65% of the time. The Phillies beat the D'backs 75% of the time, and the Brewers win 40% vs the Phillies and 57% vs the D'Backs (yes, I realize the discrepancy between a 5 and 7 game set). They advance through as to the World Series as the 2 seed with the Braves in the WC 12.87% through the Phillies and 3.74% through the D'Backs, for a total of 16.61%.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, but are the 3 seed, they have the Phillies in round one and win .38% of the time. They face the D'backs in round 2 65% of the time, winning 57% of the time, and the Braves 35% of the time, winning 65% of the time, advancing 3.73% of the time.
In total, they make the world series 28.47% of the time. If they make it, they would be sizebale dogs, probably in the 40% range, giving them a total shot (in my mind) of a 11.39% of the time, losing you $7 for every $100 bet.
Obviously, I have no idea if these numbers are even remotely close (or that the math is 100% correct), I was just extremely bored.
(all these numbers are my opinion)
66% of the time the Braves win the Wild card, so 33% the Cards win
That 33% of the times they face the D'backs. Probably 75% of the time they have home field. They'll win 55% if they have home field, 45% if not. 13.6% of the time they will face the D'Backs at home in round one and win, and 3.7% of the time they are on the road and win to advance to the NLCS, for a total of 17.3% In the NLCS, they face the Phillies on the road 50% of the time, and the Cardinals at home 50% of the time. If they face the Phillies, they have a 40% chance of winning, and the Cards they're at 54%, so they advance to the WS through the Phillies 3.46% of the time and through the Cards 4.67% of the time, for a total of 8.13% of the time advancing to the World Series if the Cards win the Wild Card.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, the Brewers face them in the first round 75% of the time. They win that series 65% of the time. The Phillies beat the D'backs 75% of the time, and the Brewers win 40% vs the Phillies and 57% vs the D'Backs (yes, I realize the discrepancy between a 5 and 7 game set). They advance through as to the World Series as the 2 seed with the Braves in the WC 12.87% through the Phillies and 3.74% through the D'Backs, for a total of 16.61%.
If the Braves win the Wild Card, but are the 3 seed, they have the Phillies in round one and win .38% of the time. They face the D'backs in round 2 65% of the time, winning 57% of the time, and the Braves 35% of the time, winning 65% of the time, advancing 3.73% of the time.
In total, they make the world series 28.47% of the time. If they make it, they would be sizebale dogs, probably in the 40% range, giving them a total shot (in my mind) of a 11.39% of the time, losing you $7 for every $100 bet.
Obviously, I have no idea if these numbers are even remotely close (or that the math is 100% correct), I was just extremely bored.
