At the beginning of the month,*the stats website coolstandings.com*estimated there was a 99.6 percent chance the Red Sox would make the playoffs

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http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/entertainment/2011/09/red-sox-beat-math-in-impossible-collapse/

Sep 29, 2011 2:09am
Red Sox Beat Math in Impossible Collapse
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ABC News’ John Berman writes:
Math says this should have never happened. Not to mention common decency. This really stinks.*For the purposes of this blog, I will lay out exactly how much it stinks, and then I will talk about whiskers on kittens.
Forget for a moment the most horrible, no good, very bad five minute period last night where the Red Sox were one strike away from winning before blowing it — only to have to watch as the Tampa Bay Rays capped an unreal come back from seven runs down with a walk-off home run.
Forget that — or at least try.
Because at the beginning of September the Red Sox had*a nine game lead in the race for the playoffs.*For those of you not into sports, that’s a lot.*At the beginning of the month,*the stats website coolstandings.com*estimated there was a 99.6 percent chance the Red Sox would make the playoffs. For those not good at math, that’s a lot.*But somehow they lost 20 games this month; they didn’t win two games in a row all month.
They didn’t just beat themselves, they beat math.*And that is almost impossible … an impossibly*crazy collapse. How crazy?*It’s like*a*death star getting blown up in “Star Wars” level of collapse.*It’s a Brad and Jennifer level collapse.*It’s like the ball going through Buckner’s legs collapse.
Okay — that made me feel even worse. Not to mention the Sox have the third highest payroll in baseball: 161 million dollars!*So yes, it stings. It really, really stings. It makes me not like a lot of people. I am mad at everyone from Tampa for going to the playoffs instead of us. I am mad at everyone in Baltimore for deciding they just had to beat us these last few games when their season was already over. And I am mad at New York, because it is New York, and I have to live here, and New York fans have darkness in their souls. Trust me, they do. I have multiple sources on that.
So I am mad at all those people, probably more than 20 million of you.*And then I am mad at 25 or so guys in Boston, mostly because the 3.5 hours I spend every night watching you was not in any way uplifting. If I wanted that kind of gut-wrenching torment I would have watched “Sophie’s Choice” 27 times. Or maybe that 24 times, and “Old Yeller” three times.
So as bad is it is, how do we get through this?*This is the “news you can use” section of this blog:*when things are truly, unimaginably depressing and unfair, I always look for inspiration to Julie Andrews.*Because Ms. Andrews tells us that when the dog bites, or the bee stings, or when your team loses 20 games in a month, the way to survive is to “remember your favorite things.” And then, Julie Andrews says, we won’t feel so bad.
So what is my favorite thing?*Well, there was that time in 2004 when the Red Sox were playing the Yankees and losing 3-0 in a seven game series. And you’ll remember that no baseball team had ever before — or since — come back from 3-0 to win.*But the Red Sox did. And that makes me smile. And I own the DVD so I can watch it again and again and again.*I also like cheese.
Which brings me to another point: everyone who somehow thinks Boston fans are going to slip into some catatonic state of depression requiring months of therapy … it is just not going to happen. It would have happened before 2004, but not now. I am not saying this isn’t awful. It’s terrible, and I will not read a sports section of a newspaper or watch highlights for six months.*But that is healthy.*And I’m not saying that I am not depressed, because I am, I am just not pathologically depressed.
Raindrops on roses, and whiskers on kittens.
*
 

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I think i remember seeing the cardinals had a 5 percent chance or something like that a couple weeks ago. Amazing run by Tampa and St Louis. 2 great managers. Here's hoping they meet up in the WS!!!
 

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Handicapper
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I wonder what the odds were when the yanks were winning 7-0 and they were winning
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Here is another graph charting the AL Wild Card Odds solely on the evening of Wed, Sep 28

ALWCracebytime.png
 

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