The early Week 4 NFL betting trends
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- As a whole, the 517 entrants in the Hilton SuperContest were struggling through the first two weeks of the NFL season, compiling a losing record with their best bets as well as their overall plays.
But that all changed in Week 3.
SuperContestants rebounded big-time, as the top five consensus plays went 4-1 against the spread, the overall consensus went 11-5 ATS and the entire field (except for one contestant who didn't put in his picks) went an impressive 1,491-1,089 (57.79 percent). For the year, the top five plays each week have improved to 7-6-2, overall consensus is now 24-21-1 and all plays are 3,691-3,487 (51.42 percent).
The poster child for the SuperContestants' resurgence is new leader Sans Souci, which in French means "without care," and is similar to the contemporary phrase (especially for the parents out there) Hakuna Matata from the re-released movie, "The Lion King." Sans Souci went 5-0 against the contest's lines in Week 3 and is an impressive 13-1-1 overall for 13.5 contest points (wins are worth one point and pushes are worth a half-point). Sans Souci has a 1.5-point lead over Mister P. and Samswins.com2, and Babania is another half-point back at 11.5, going 5-0 after entering the week at 6-3-1.
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SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants that put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->The one thing the leaders all had in common was avoiding the trap of the Philadelphia Eagles minus-6.5 versus the New York Giants. That was the contest line that was posted last Wednesday before it was known whether or not Michael Vick would start for the Eagles (he suffered a concussion in Week 2). When it was announced that he was cleared to play, the line went up as Eagles minus-8.5, so 169 SuperContestants took what they thought was a really advantageous line, making it the top consensus play, with only 18 taking the bad number on the Giants. However, the Giants won 29-16 and kept the players from putting up really ridiculous numbers, as the next five-most selected teams (154 on the Raiders plus-3.5, 131 on the Dolphins plus-2.5, 130 on the Vikings plus-3.5, 127 on the Ravens minus-4 and 124 on the Saints minus-4) all covered. In fact, except for the Lions, who played the Vikings, every other team covered that was selected by more than 100 SuperContestants: the Bills, Panthers, Seahawks and Redskins.
Where is the money going in Week 4?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>
• The Hilton also posts advance lines every Tuesday for the games of the following week. So, when the Week 4 lines were first posted last Tuesday, the Patriots were minus-9 versus the Raiders. After the Pats were upset by the Bills on Sunday and the Raiders knocked off the Jets, that line was re-opened at Pats minus-5.5. The wiseguys here (and offshore, where it opened minus-6) had bet it down further to minus-4.5 as of Tuesday morning.
• Conversely, the Bills are earning more respect from everyone. In advance wagering, they were a 1-point dog versus the Bengals, but after their rally they were installed as a 3-point road favorite. More money is coming in on them, making books attach minus-120 to the 3-point spread (meaning you have to risk $12 to win $10 instead of the standard $11 to win $10) with all indications this line will continue to rise to minus-3.5.
• The Saints were minus-6.5 versus the Jaguars on the advance line and re-posted at minus-7 after their win over the Texans and the Jags' loss to the Panthers. This line could also be crossing the key number up to minus-7.5, as many books have already attached minus-120 to the minus-7.
• Oddsmakers didn't downgrade the Texans much for their loss to the Saints, as they were favored by 2.5 points versus the Steelers before Sunday's early games and the line was lowered to just minus-2 after their loss. However, after Pittsburgh struggled to win at Indy on Sunday night, that line has since been bumped over the key number of 3 to minus-3.5 -- and even as high as 4 at some books, including the Hilton.
• As of "press time" (kind of an outdated idea in the Internet age), most books hadn't posted a line on the Redskins-Rams game (with the Redskins having played Monday night), but the advance line of Rams minus-2 was adjusted to pick-em at the Hilton and Lucky's -- the books in town that did post a line before Washington's 18-16 loss to the Cowboys. Off that narrow loss, the Redskins are expected to be a small road favorite.
• Be careful about laying points on the road. That's probably been the best piece of advice I've offered in this space so far this season, as home dogs went 5-2-1 against the spread in Week 3 and are 11-6-2 overall (note: the Browns were a favorite in the SuperContest lines last week but closed as a dog, covering in their 17-16 loss to the Dolphins, who cashed for SuperContestant who took the plus-2.5). This week's home dogs look to be the Jaguars, Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Raiders and possibly Rams.
• My other piece of advice that worked out last week was to look at the double-digit underdogs, as the Chiefs plus-14 and Colts plus-10.5 both covered. Big dogs are 3-1 ATS this season. This week's plays would be the Broncos plus-13 versus the Packers and the Colts plus-10 versus the Buccaneers.
Familiar names bounce back
A rising tide lifts all boats, so that also helped most of the familiar names we've been tracking. Two-time champ Fezzik went 3-2 to get back to .500 at 7-7-1, as did fellow former champs Jarhead and Bruno's Boys. Defending champion Richard Stand also went 3-2 but is still below par at 5-8-2. Bill Simmons told me he doesn't want to reveal his alias until he's over .500, but I have it on good authority that he went 4-1 to climb back to 6-8-1 overall after his poor start. Chad Millman, playing under the alias Dead Money Millman, went 1-4 and is 5-10 overall. Enough said (especially since he edits this column).
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- As a whole, the 517 entrants in the Hilton SuperContest were struggling through the first two weeks of the NFL season, compiling a losing record with their best bets as well as their overall plays.
But that all changed in Week 3.
SuperContestants rebounded big-time, as the top five consensus plays went 4-1 against the spread, the overall consensus went 11-5 ATS and the entire field (except for one contestant who didn't put in his picks) went an impressive 1,491-1,089 (57.79 percent). For the year, the top five plays each week have improved to 7-6-2, overall consensus is now 24-21-1 and all plays are 3,691-3,487 (51.42 percent).
The poster child for the SuperContestants' resurgence is new leader Sans Souci, which in French means "without care," and is similar to the contemporary phrase (especially for the parents out there) Hakuna Matata from the re-released movie, "The Lion King." Sans Souci went 5-0 against the contest's lines in Week 3 and is an impressive 13-1-1 overall for 13.5 contest points (wins are worth one point and pushes are worth a half-point). Sans Souci has a 1.5-point lead over Mister P. and Samswins.com2, and Babania is another half-point back at 11.5, going 5-0 after entering the week at 6-3-1.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->
SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants that put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->The one thing the leaders all had in common was avoiding the trap of the Philadelphia Eagles minus-6.5 versus the New York Giants. That was the contest line that was posted last Wednesday before it was known whether or not Michael Vick would start for the Eagles (he suffered a concussion in Week 2). When it was announced that he was cleared to play, the line went up as Eagles minus-8.5, so 169 SuperContestants took what they thought was a really advantageous line, making it the top consensus play, with only 18 taking the bad number on the Giants. However, the Giants won 29-16 and kept the players from putting up really ridiculous numbers, as the next five-most selected teams (154 on the Raiders plus-3.5, 131 on the Dolphins plus-2.5, 130 on the Vikings plus-3.5, 127 on the Ravens minus-4 and 124 on the Saints minus-4) all covered. In fact, except for the Lions, who played the Vikings, every other team covered that was selected by more than 100 SuperContestants: the Bills, Panthers, Seahawks and Redskins.
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Where is the money going in Week 4?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend.
<OFFER>
• The Hilton also posts advance lines every Tuesday for the games of the following week. So, when the Week 4 lines were first posted last Tuesday, the Patriots were minus-9 versus the Raiders. After the Pats were upset by the Bills on Sunday and the Raiders knocked off the Jets, that line was re-opened at Pats minus-5.5. The wiseguys here (and offshore, where it opened minus-6) had bet it down further to minus-4.5 as of Tuesday morning.
• Conversely, the Bills are earning more respect from everyone. In advance wagering, they were a 1-point dog versus the Bengals, but after their rally they were installed as a 3-point road favorite. More money is coming in on them, making books attach minus-120 to the 3-point spread (meaning you have to risk $12 to win $10 instead of the standard $11 to win $10) with all indications this line will continue to rise to minus-3.5.
• The Saints were minus-6.5 versus the Jaguars on the advance line and re-posted at minus-7 after their win over the Texans and the Jags' loss to the Panthers. This line could also be crossing the key number up to minus-7.5, as many books have already attached minus-120 to the minus-7.
• Oddsmakers didn't downgrade the Texans much for their loss to the Saints, as they were favored by 2.5 points versus the Steelers before Sunday's early games and the line was lowered to just minus-2 after their loss. However, after Pittsburgh struggled to win at Indy on Sunday night, that line has since been bumped over the key number of 3 to minus-3.5 -- and even as high as 4 at some books, including the Hilton.
• As of "press time" (kind of an outdated idea in the Internet age), most books hadn't posted a line on the Redskins-Rams game (with the Redskins having played Monday night), but the advance line of Rams minus-2 was adjusted to pick-em at the Hilton and Lucky's -- the books in town that did post a line before Washington's 18-16 loss to the Cowboys. Off that narrow loss, the Redskins are expected to be a small road favorite.
• Be careful about laying points on the road. That's probably been the best piece of advice I've offered in this space so far this season, as home dogs went 5-2-1 against the spread in Week 3 and are 11-6-2 overall (note: the Browns were a favorite in the SuperContest lines last week but closed as a dog, covering in their 17-16 loss to the Dolphins, who cashed for SuperContestant who took the plus-2.5). This week's home dogs look to be the Jaguars, Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Raiders and possibly Rams.
• My other piece of advice that worked out last week was to look at the double-digit underdogs, as the Chiefs plus-14 and Colts plus-10.5 both covered. Big dogs are 3-1 ATS this season. This week's plays would be the Broncos plus-13 versus the Packers and the Colts plus-10 versus the Buccaneers.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Familiar names bounce back
A rising tide lifts all boats, so that also helped most of the familiar names we've been tracking. Two-time champ Fezzik went 3-2 to get back to .500 at 7-7-1, as did fellow former champs Jarhead and Bruno's Boys. Defending champion Richard Stand also went 3-2 but is still below par at 5-8-2. Bill Simmons told me he doesn't want to reveal his alias until he's over .500, but I have it on good authority that he went 4-1 to climb back to 6-8-1 overall after his poor start. Chad Millman, playing under the alias Dead Money Millman, went 1-4 and is 5-10 overall. Enough said (especially since he edits this column).
