MistaFlava's 2011 MLB Baseball Playoffs NLDS/ALDS ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

MistaFlava's 2011 MLB Baseball Playoffs: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

Did not keep an accurate record on TheRx for baseball this season but had more winners then losers and didn't really post enough to consider it a contribution.

I have done tremendously well in past MLB Playoff seasons, some posted here some posted on other forums and although I don't really bet too much baseball for a living, I do really enjoy making some side coin on the playoffs.


Playoffs Recap

Divisional: Pending...



Please feel free to chime in on any of my posts and thoughts with some of your own. I don't mind bashing when I lose, I don't mind constructive criticism either, bring it on, let's make some money. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

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Friday, September 30


New York Yankees ML -128 (10 Units)

Could you ask for a more interesting pitching matchup than this one to open one half of the American League Divisional series? It's hard to gauge what the Yankees have been up to lately because their intentions against the Rays in that season finale series was evidently to win but I don't feel we got the best of the Yankees and their best interest was quite possibly to get of the Boston Red Sox which would explain some very suspect pitching. Having said that, we have two of the best in the game going tonight with CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander going at it in the night cap. These are the two pitchers fighting for the Cy Young and we will find out tonight who is made of steel. There is no doubt the Tigers come in as the hotter team having won 7 of their last 10 and batting .299 in those games compared to the Yankees batting .237 in their last 10 games and winning only half of them but the Tigers did not have to face the Red Sox and the Rays who both needed wins to survive. The Yankees did.

I will back Justin Verlander in this series if he gets to pitch again but the time I made money on him this year was in day starts where he was so much more consistent than night starts. The Tigers won 25 of Verlander's 34 starts this season and of those 9 losses, 7 of them came in night games for some reason where he allows more base runners and has a tougher time retiring batters. Having said that Verlander was tremendous on the road and the Tigers won 14 of his 18 starts away from home. CC Sabathia has not been great at home and has not been great in night games but he has had more run support at home than Verlander has had on the road. What bothers me the most is that Verlander made two starts against the Yankees in 2011 and although he went 0-0, the Tigers lost both times (once at home and once on the road). Verlander enters the post-season off one of his worst outings of the season where he allowed 5 ER's against Baltimore and I don't like that vibe for a pitcher as he enters the second season. CC Sabathia faced the Tigers twice this season and the Yankees went 1-1 in those games with Sabathia striking out a total of 13 batters. Both pitchers have a shot at striking out 7-8 batters and I think they'll both be solid so this comes down to bullpens and the Yankees have a bullpen ERA of 2.95 at home while the Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 3.66 on the road this season. That's the difference for me.

You can put together all the stats you want about Verlander and how many games he won this year...bottom line is he failed to win either game against the Yankees and most of his losses in 2011 were as an underdog. Detroit is only 1-6 the last seven times Verlander has been an underdog and all of those starts were on the road. The Yankees have won six straight ALDS games with their sweep in 2010 and they come into the playoffs having won 16 of their last 21 as a favorite. What is most impressive for me is the fact that the New York Yankees have won 19 of the last 23 games CC Sabathia has started at home against a team with a winning record. Now that is impressive. If anyone knows how to set the tone it's Sabathia because the Yankees have won 23 of his last 29 starts in Game 1 of a series. Detroit is only 1-4 in Verlander's last five starts against the Yankees and I don't see the Bronx bombers losing Game 1.

Trend of the Game: NY Yankees are 19-4 in CC Sabathia's last 23 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


NY Yankees 5, Detroit 2





more to come...

MistaFlava said:

MistaFlava's 2011 MLB Baseball Playoffs: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

Did not keep an accurate record on TheRx for baseball this season but had more winners then losers and didn't really post enough to consider it a contribution.

I have done tremendously well in past MLB Playoff seasons, some posted here some posted on other forums and although I don't really bet too much baseball for a living, I do really enjoy making some side coin on the playoffs.


Playoffs Recap

Divisional: Pending...



Please feel free to chime in on any of my posts and thoughts with some of your own. I don't mind bashing when I lose, I don't mind constructive criticism either, bring it on, let's make some money. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

--------------------------------------------------



Friday, September 30


New York Yankees ML -128 (10 Units)

Could you ask for a more interesting pitching matchup than this one to open one half of the American League Divisional series? It's hard to gauge what the Yankees have been up to lately because their intentions against the Rays in that season finale series was evidently to win but I don't feel we got the best of the Yankees and their best interest was quite possibly to get of the Boston Red Sox which would explain some very suspect pitching. Having said that, we have two of the best in the game going tonight with CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander going at it in the night cap. These are the two pitchers fighting for the Cy Young and we will find out tonight who is made of steel. There is no doubt the Tigers come in as the hotter team having won 7 of their last 10 and batting .299 in those games compared to the Yankees batting .237 in their last 10 games and winning only half of them but the Tigers did not have to face the Red Sox and the Rays who both needed wins to survive. The Yankees did.

I will back Justin Verlander in this series if he gets to pitch again but the time I made money on him this year was in day starts where he was so much more consistent than night starts. The Tigers won 25 of Verlander's 34 starts this season and of those 9 losses, 7 of them came in night games for some reason where he allows more base runners and has a tougher time retiring batters. Having said that Verlander was tremendous on the road and the Tigers won 14 of his 18 starts away from home. CC Sabathia has not been great at home and has not been great in night games but he has had more run support at home than Verlander has had on the road. What bothers me the most is that Verlander made two starts against the Yankees in 2011 and although he went 0-0, the Tigers lost both times (once at home and once on the road). Verlander enters the post-season off one of his worst outings of the season where he allowed 5 ER's against Baltimore and I don't like that vibe for a pitcher as he enters the second season. CC Sabathia faced the Tigers twice this season and the Yankees went 1-1 in those games with Sabathia striking out a total of 13 batters. Both pitchers have a shot at striking out 7-8 batters and I think they'll both be solid so this comes down to bullpens and the Yankees have a bullpen ERA of 2.95 at home while the Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 3.66 on the road this season. That's the difference for me.

You can put together all the stats you want about Verlander and how many games he won this year...bottom line is he failed to win either game against the Yankees and most of his losses in 2011 were as an underdog. Detroit is only 1-6 the last seven times Verlander has been an underdog and all of those starts were on the road. The Yankees have won six straight ALDS games with their sweep in 2010 and they come into the playoffs having won 16 of their last 21 as a favorite. What is most impressive for me is the fact that the New York Yankees have won 19 of the last 23 games CC Sabathia has started at home against a team with a winning record. Now that is impressive. If anyone knows how to set the tone it's Sabathia because the Yankees have won 23 of his last 29 starts in Game 1 of a series. Detroit is only 1-4 in Verlander's last five starts against the Yankees and I don't see the Bronx bombers losing Game 1.

Trend of the Game: NY Yankees are 19-4 in CC Sabathia's last 23 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


NY Yankees 5, Detroit 2





more to come...

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wow that is one hell of a good write up......that is what i have been telling people that the yanks have hit verlander and the games he has started in the past 2 years against yanks he is 1-4.. goodluck

good luck

billsfan said:

good luck

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Hi Bills -- where you been???? Hope all is well.

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Sunday, October 2


Milwaukee Brewers RL -1.5 +136 (10 Units)





more to come...

ALDS/NLDS Recap

NY Yankees ML -128 (Game 1)
Milwaukee RL -1.5 (Game 2)



1-0 (+13.60 Units) with more to come!




:toast:

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Monday, October 3


Detroit Tigers ML -125 (10 Units) ---GAME 3----

This has nothing to do with Game 1 of this series regardless of the exact same pitching matchup. You could ask me all day and all night why I switched back to the Tigers for this game and the answer is simple. The stakes are higher, the Tigers are at home. The winner of Game 3 is one win away from American League Championship Series and with the Tigers down to one home game in this series, this is the one they have to win. Now after seeing how the Detroit Lions pulled off that comeback yesterday and the seeing the Tigers win Game 2 of this series, it would be a pretty big shame to go against the City of Detroit right now. Both these teams can hit, both these teams have decent bullpens (although the Tigers almost blew that one yesterday and the final score was a lot closer than it should have been) and both probably deserve to be in the ALCS but there can only be one winner and when you put the two best pitchers in the American League up against each other, the only advantage I see is home field. That's the reason I was on the Yankees in Game 1 and have since switched.

The Yankees had absolutely nothing on the line when they played Tampa Bay in that ever so important season closing series for the Rays so I guess you could excuse them for losing all three games and getting swept but go all the way back to mid-September and you'll see that even in their visit to Toronto, the Yankees lacked punch and lost two of three games. Their only win was a close 7-6 win in Game 2 of that series but they lost with Sabathia on the mound in the opener as a -214 favorite. That means the Yankees have now lost four straight road games and have lost 6 of their last 7 away from home. I talked about backing CC Sabathia in Game 1 at home because he was 2-0 against the Tigers at Yankees Stadium in 2011 but things are completely different in Detroit. Sabathia 10 hits and 4 ER's in his only start of the season in this ballpark (4-2 loss in May) and his three career starts in Detroit as a New York Yankee have seen him allow 14 ER's in 21.0 innings of work with all three starts losses for the Yankees. That's not good news. The Detroit Tigers understand the importance of winning this game. I wasn't a fan of backing Verlander against the Yankees on the road only because he had not beaten them in 2011 and had not pitched well against them but at home Verlander has an ERA of 2.37 this season with a WHIP of 0.78 compared to Sabathia and his 2.92 ERA on the road and 1.38 WHIP on the road. The on-base percentage is not even close (Sabathia .330 compated to Verlander .242). What should be noted is that while Sabathia is 0-3 in this ballpark as a New York Yankee, Justin Verlander's last five home starts against the Yankees have generated 4 Quality Starts out of a possible five.

You need to know. The Yankees are now 0-6 in their last six playoff games as an underdog and they come into this Game 3 with absolutely no momentum to speak of having lost 6 of their last 7 on the road (including four straight). What's even worse is that CC Sabathia has never pitched well in this ballpark and his the Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts versus a team with a winning record on the season. This has been a very reliable price for Justin Verlander as the Tigers are 6-0 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and the team has won 39 of his last 52 home starts, including 22 of his last 28 at home versus a team with a winning record on the season. Pretty damn impressive. You could argue that the Yankees are 4-1 the last five times these pitchers have gone head-to-head but don't forget Sabathia already lost here in 2011. This should be a good game. I'll take the Tigers.

Trend of the Game: Yankees are 1-4 in CC Sabathia's last five road starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Detroit 5, NY Yankees 1





more to come...

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Tuesday, October 4


Detroit Tigers ML +104 (10 Units) ---GAME 4---

This is going to be the best game of the series because there is so much on the line. I obviously disagree with the best of five format in the playoffs seeing how these teams play some 162 games a year and it just doesn't make sense to be on the brink down 2-1 in a series but the Yankees are there and the game they had to win was yesterday's Game 3. My reasoning behind this pick is that if the Yankees sent their best to the mound yesterday in a must win situation and still lost, how are they going to do with an average career pitcher on the mound for them tonight? The biggest difference between these two teams has been clutch hitting and that all has to do with the way they played down the stretch of the regular season. The Yankees are hitting just .226 in their last 10 games while the Tigers are batting .299 in their last 10 games. I'm not making this a big play because I have a problem with Porcello's stats at home this season. He has an ERA of 5.64 and a WHIP of 1.38 in 14 home starts but the Tigers have won 9 of them and supported him with 5.57 runs of support.

As for AJ Burnett, he has been just as bad and has an ERA of 6.28 and a WHIP of 1.63 on the road in 14 starts this season (7 of them wins by the Yankees). So both guys get run support but only one team has a winning percentage with their guy on the mound. Porcello pitched a very solid 7 innings of ball against the Yankees back in May, his only start against them this season, with the Tigers winning that game 6-3. In his three career starts at home against the Yankees, Detroit is 2-1 in those games. Apart from a Quality Start here back in May, AJ Burnett has struggled badly in this ballpark and in the City of Detroit. Again the difference for me between these two teams and pitchers is that the Tigers are hitting well, the Yankees are not (relying on big hits to keep them in the game) and the Tigers won for Porcello this year (21-10 in his 31 starts) while the Yankees were just okay with AJ Burnett on the mound going 16-16 on the season.

I talked about this yesterday but I can't stand the fact that the Yankees came into the post-season off a sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay and it bothers me even more that they came in having lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. Make that 7 of 8 now with the loss in Game 3 and they are 1-6 in their last seven games overall. The Yankees are only 2-9 in AJ Burnett's last 11 road starts versus an opponent with a winning record on the season and the team has now lost 5 of their last 6 games played in Detroit. The Tigers are very good at home against righties going 8-1 in their last nine home games versus a right handed starter and they have won 13 of their last 16 versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. I have to say the Tigers came into the post-season hot and it has shown. I love backing Porcello when he is pitching well and the Tigers are 8-2 in his last 10 starts when coming off a Quality Start the previous start. It's hard to believe the Yankees are making an early exit from the playoffs but Detroit knows they cannot let this get to Game 5 in New York and I think they finish it tonight.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 8-1 in their last nine home games versus a right handed starter.


Detroit 7, NY Yankees 4





more to come...

Love the writeups! I was leaning yankees before this, just didn't see them laying down today, but after this I'm back on the fence.

qwzej said:

Love the writeups! I was leaning yankees before this, just didn't see them laying down today, but after this I'm back on the fence.

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It's hard to see them losing but this is such a big game for the Tigers. They just can't afford to go back to New York and AJ Burnett has been a disaster all year. No reason for that to change here, Tigers have been the better team down the stretch of the season. GL

Personally I think AJ pitches a "good" game today, good for his standards and good compared to what everyone else thinks