First off, I feel it necessary to say that I'm a Cardinals fan. I also feel it's necessary to say that I've won a shit ton of money betting both for (and occasionally against) the Cardinals).
First off, and I think this is the most important thing to realize with this series, is to point out an obvious fact that is sometimes overlooked. Pitching match ups mean nothing. Hamels vs Garcia means nothing. Hamels vs the Cardinals lineup and Garcia vs the Phillies lineup means everything. That is going to be the basic breakdown of this post.
Game 1:
Lohse @ Halladay
Recent success:
Kyle Lohse sucked last year. He was god awful. But he was battling injuries. This year, he's been healthy. He started to shuffle around the middle of the year, but after his start on August 28th against the Pirates, he got 8 days of rest. Since then, he's thrown 26.1 innings and let up 4 ER-a 1.37ERA. He's getting 6 days of rest before this start.
How he matches up with Philly
He's had 2 starts this year, and gone 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA in 15.1 IP, including a 7.1 IP shutout recently at Citizens Back.
His slash line vs Philly is .272/.336/.416/.752, which obviously isn't spectacular, but a few things to note-a lot of the damage came last year, when, as I said earlier, he was hurt. He also gets owned by Ryan Howard (.500/.600/.875/.1475), who's battling injury. I doubt he's going to be as effective vs Lohse given the injuries. He throws well vs Utley, Victorino, and Rollins.
Halladay:
Halladay has been just as dominate down the stretch, except for one start. Guess who that was against? He let up 4 runs against STL in 8 innings, but only let up 3 ER in the other 4 games he pitched in September.
Vs the Cardinals
Halladay has a 3.21 ERA in 14 IP in two games this year (the before mentioned game, plus a 1 ER in 6 IP start vs them). his slash line is a decent .261/.313/.313/.626 (134 ABs), which is obviously good, but not Halladay like dominance. That line also includes a 7 for 30 (.233 AVG) by two guys who won't play-Laird and Theriot. Again, still a solid line, but not Halladay-esque.
Game 1 line
StL+120
PHI -125
6.5
Game 2
Carpenter vs Lee
This is probably the trickiest game to cap. Carpenter is going on short rest, but really wasn't pressured at all in the game vs the Astros. I really would have liked to have seen him come out after 6 innings if they were planning on bringing him back, but it is what it is.
Carpenter recently has gone 3-0 in his last 5 starts, with his worse game being in Pittsburg. He's let up 5 runs in 40 innings (4 in Pitt) and in those 5 games through 17 IP vs the Phillies and Brewers, shutting out both teams in those games.
Vs. Philly
He has allowed 1 run in two starts vs Philly this year. Philly batters have a .211/.231/.289/.520 slash line against him, and he absolutely owns Rollins, Polanco, Pence, and Howards (watch out for utley though).
Lee recently
Lee let up only 6 ER in 38 IP in September, but he has only face one competent offense in that month and that was Milwaukee on Sept 10. Everyone also knows about his October dominance.
Lee vs the Cards
Cardinals batters have a .224/.305/.304/.609 slash line vs Lee. Berkman hits well (1.082 OPS in 13 ABs), but that's about it. He also has a 1.76 ERA vs the Cards this year, which is obviously solid (but has a 1-1 record)
Line:
Cards +115
Phillies -120
Game 3
Garcia vs Hamels
Game 3 is probably the game that the line in Vegas will be the most off. Garcia pitched poorly vs Houston in his last start, but had only let up 5 ER in the last 4 games before that. Garcia is also getting a substantial amount of rest between starts. In games in which he gets 6+days of rest, he is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA, with a 25-3 K/BB ratio. He is also pitching at home, where is ERA is 2.55-over 2 runs better than on the road.
Garcia vs the Phillies
The phillies have a slash line of .211/.269/.337/.606 in 95 ABs. In 15 IP, he has allowed 1 ER vs the Phillies this year. He let up 2 ER in 13 IP vs the Phillies last year. DOMINATE!
Hamels recently hasn't been like Hamels. He's allowed 16ER in September in 38 IP. He let up 4 ER vs the Cards recently, 4 @ HOU, and hasn't really been all that effective.
However, he does have a respectable .258/.296/.402/.697 slash line vs the Cards. As mentioned though, his only start vs them resulted in allowing 4ER.
Line:
Cards-155
Phillies +150
total 8
Game 4
Oswalt vs Jackson
Possibly the key to the series.
Jackson hasn't taken a loss in his last nine starts, with the only game the Cards lost in that stretch was when he let up 2ER in 7 IP vs Cincy. He didn't pitch well vs the Mets on the 20th, but other than that, he has been extremely consistent-he has allowed 2 earned runs in 6 starts, 1 ER in 2 starts, and 3 earned in one start since the game where he needed to be a whipping goat to save the bullpen vs Milwaukee on aug 3rd. something seems to have clicked with him.
Jackson has only faced 43 batters for the Phillies, and hasn;t see a few of their studs, but has a slash line of .279/.340/.465/.806....not really a significant sample though.
Oswalt
Oswalt will be the key to this game. He shut the Cards down in Philly's only win in the 4 game set in September, not allowing a run in 7 innings. Other than that, he's allowed 16 ER in 41IP, which isn't exactly awesome in September (also allowed 11 earned in 26.2 IP in August). Again, not bad...but not dominant.
Oswalt has faced Cardinal batters 298 times(!!!). He has a slash line of .299/.330/.460/.790. Pujols hits great vs him, as does Theriot, Furcal, and Berkman (small sample for Berkman). I expect the Cards to get to them in this game.
Line:
Cards -130
Philly +125
total: 8.5
Game 5:
Carpenter on full rest vs Halladay
line:
Cards +110
Philly -115
total: 6
Bullpens:
The obvious nod goes to the Phillies here, but it's not as clear cut as some may think.
The Cardinals will probably close the game with Fernando Salas. Salas has dominated the Phillies to a tune of an .087 AVG and a .309 OPS. This allows Larussa to mix and match with Motte, Dotel, Rhodes, and that lefty who's name I can't spell that they got from Toronto. The lefty matches up very well vs Utley and Howard, as does Rhodes. You know Larussa will pick them apart with the two lefties. Dotel also has good stats, including a .575 OPS vs them. Motte, the right hander who finished most game (don't call him the closer or Larussa will shoot you), has been hit hard (over 1.000 OPS), but if I recall right he also had a lead when he faced them and could afford to give up an extra base hit or two. Not really sure how much credence to take in that.
The Phillies bullpen throws very well vs the Cardinals, but that comes down to the match ups. Lidge is not good vs Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, but throws well vs the rest. Madson throws very well vs those three, but is worse vs others. A lot will come down to when the pitchers come in and what part of the lineup they are in.
All in all, I think there is absolutely huge value betting the Cardinals in this series, and I think their will be a ton in game 3 for sure. The Cardinals should be able to win 1 of three in Philly, so, in my mind, the series comes down to who wins game 4 in STL. I'll go with the Cards.
***ETA Also, a quick thought on momentum. The Cards are playing very good baseball right now, baseball they were capable of playing the entire year. The phillies are playing like shit (beating a lifeless Braves team really doesn't count as momentum to me). GO CARDS!
First off, and I think this is the most important thing to realize with this series, is to point out an obvious fact that is sometimes overlooked. Pitching match ups mean nothing. Hamels vs Garcia means nothing. Hamels vs the Cardinals lineup and Garcia vs the Phillies lineup means everything. That is going to be the basic breakdown of this post.
Game 1:
Lohse @ Halladay
Recent success:
Kyle Lohse sucked last year. He was god awful. But he was battling injuries. This year, he's been healthy. He started to shuffle around the middle of the year, but after his start on August 28th against the Pirates, he got 8 days of rest. Since then, he's thrown 26.1 innings and let up 4 ER-a 1.37ERA. He's getting 6 days of rest before this start.
How he matches up with Philly
He's had 2 starts this year, and gone 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA in 15.1 IP, including a 7.1 IP shutout recently at Citizens Back.
His slash line vs Philly is .272/.336/.416/.752, which obviously isn't spectacular, but a few things to note-a lot of the damage came last year, when, as I said earlier, he was hurt. He also gets owned by Ryan Howard (.500/.600/.875/.1475), who's battling injury. I doubt he's going to be as effective vs Lohse given the injuries. He throws well vs Utley, Victorino, and Rollins.
Halladay:
Halladay has been just as dominate down the stretch, except for one start. Guess who that was against? He let up 4 runs against STL in 8 innings, but only let up 3 ER in the other 4 games he pitched in September.
Vs the Cardinals
Halladay has a 3.21 ERA in 14 IP in two games this year (the before mentioned game, plus a 1 ER in 6 IP start vs them). his slash line is a decent .261/.313/.313/.626 (134 ABs), which is obviously good, but not Halladay like dominance. That line also includes a 7 for 30 (.233 AVG) by two guys who won't play-Laird and Theriot. Again, still a solid line, but not Halladay-esque.
Game 1 line
StL+120
PHI -125
6.5
Game 2
Carpenter vs Lee
This is probably the trickiest game to cap. Carpenter is going on short rest, but really wasn't pressured at all in the game vs the Astros. I really would have liked to have seen him come out after 6 innings if they were planning on bringing him back, but it is what it is.
Carpenter recently has gone 3-0 in his last 5 starts, with his worse game being in Pittsburg. He's let up 5 runs in 40 innings (4 in Pitt) and in those 5 games through 17 IP vs the Phillies and Brewers, shutting out both teams in those games.
Vs. Philly
He has allowed 1 run in two starts vs Philly this year. Philly batters have a .211/.231/.289/.520 slash line against him, and he absolutely owns Rollins, Polanco, Pence, and Howards (watch out for utley though).
Lee recently
Lee let up only 6 ER in 38 IP in September, but he has only face one competent offense in that month and that was Milwaukee on Sept 10. Everyone also knows about his October dominance.
Lee vs the Cards
Cardinals batters have a .224/.305/.304/.609 slash line vs Lee. Berkman hits well (1.082 OPS in 13 ABs), but that's about it. He also has a 1.76 ERA vs the Cards this year, which is obviously solid (but has a 1-1 record)
Line:
Cards +115
Phillies -120
Game 3
Garcia vs Hamels
Game 3 is probably the game that the line in Vegas will be the most off. Garcia pitched poorly vs Houston in his last start, but had only let up 5 ER in the last 4 games before that. Garcia is also getting a substantial amount of rest between starts. In games in which he gets 6+days of rest, he is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA, with a 25-3 K/BB ratio. He is also pitching at home, where is ERA is 2.55-over 2 runs better than on the road.
Garcia vs the Phillies
The phillies have a slash line of .211/.269/.337/.606 in 95 ABs. In 15 IP, he has allowed 1 ER vs the Phillies this year. He let up 2 ER in 13 IP vs the Phillies last year. DOMINATE!
Hamels recently hasn't been like Hamels. He's allowed 16ER in September in 38 IP. He let up 4 ER vs the Cards recently, 4 @ HOU, and hasn't really been all that effective.
However, he does have a respectable .258/.296/.402/.697 slash line vs the Cards. As mentioned though, his only start vs them resulted in allowing 4ER.
Line:
Cards-155
Phillies +150
total 8
Game 4
Oswalt vs Jackson
Possibly the key to the series.
Jackson hasn't taken a loss in his last nine starts, with the only game the Cards lost in that stretch was when he let up 2ER in 7 IP vs Cincy. He didn't pitch well vs the Mets on the 20th, but other than that, he has been extremely consistent-he has allowed 2 earned runs in 6 starts, 1 ER in 2 starts, and 3 earned in one start since the game where he needed to be a whipping goat to save the bullpen vs Milwaukee on aug 3rd. something seems to have clicked with him.
Jackson has only faced 43 batters for the Phillies, and hasn;t see a few of their studs, but has a slash line of .279/.340/.465/.806....not really a significant sample though.
Oswalt
Oswalt will be the key to this game. He shut the Cards down in Philly's only win in the 4 game set in September, not allowing a run in 7 innings. Other than that, he's allowed 16 ER in 41IP, which isn't exactly awesome in September (also allowed 11 earned in 26.2 IP in August). Again, not bad...but not dominant.
Oswalt has faced Cardinal batters 298 times(!!!). He has a slash line of .299/.330/.460/.790. Pujols hits great vs him, as does Theriot, Furcal, and Berkman (small sample for Berkman). I expect the Cards to get to them in this game.
Line:
Cards -130
Philly +125
total: 8.5
Game 5:
Carpenter on full rest vs Halladay
line:
Cards +110
Philly -115
total: 6
Bullpens:
The obvious nod goes to the Phillies here, but it's not as clear cut as some may think.
The Cardinals will probably close the game with Fernando Salas. Salas has dominated the Phillies to a tune of an .087 AVG and a .309 OPS. This allows Larussa to mix and match with Motte, Dotel, Rhodes, and that lefty who's name I can't spell that they got from Toronto. The lefty matches up very well vs Utley and Howard, as does Rhodes. You know Larussa will pick them apart with the two lefties. Dotel also has good stats, including a .575 OPS vs them. Motte, the right hander who finished most game (don't call him the closer or Larussa will shoot you), has been hit hard (over 1.000 OPS), but if I recall right he also had a lead when he faced them and could afford to give up an extra base hit or two. Not really sure how much credence to take in that.
The Phillies bullpen throws very well vs the Cardinals, but that comes down to the match ups. Lidge is not good vs Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, but throws well vs the rest. Madson throws very well vs those three, but is worse vs others. A lot will come down to when the pitchers come in and what part of the lineup they are in.
All in all, I think there is absolutely huge value betting the Cardinals in this series, and I think their will be a ton in game 3 for sure. The Cardinals should be able to win 1 of three in Philly, so, in my mind, the series comes down to who wins game 4 in STL. I'll go with the Cards.
***ETA Also, a quick thought on momentum. The Cards are playing very good baseball right now, baseball they were capable of playing the entire year. The phillies are playing like shit (beating a lifeless Braves team really doesn't count as momentum to me). GO CARDS!
