Aggies will struggle in SEC
Facing a full SEC schedule will present major difficulties for Texas A&M
By Brian Fremeau
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
The Texas A&M Aggies could use some good news. A top-10 ranking and dreams of contending for a national championship went up in smoke in the last two weekends. Texas A&M blew three-score second-half leads in consecutive weeks against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Arkansas Razorbacks to fall to 2-2 and the bottom of the Associated Press and USA Today polls.
Saturday's loss to the Razorbacks was an especially bitter pill to swallow. Not only are the Razorbacks longtime rivals of the Aggies -- dating back to the days of the old Southwest Conference -- but Arkansas is a future SEC rival as well. And on the heels of Texas A&M's official announcement last week that it will join the Southeastern Conference in 2012, the Aggies were hoping to make a statement that they were ready to be an immediate impact contender in the top conference in the country.
Now, one loss in 2011 doesn't seal the fate for Texas A&M in the SEC for years to come. But according to our Football Outsiders research based on several years of play-by-play and drive efficiency data, Texas A&M is expected to struggle once it joins the SEC.
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Heading into last weekend, Texas A&M ranked No. 14 in our overall F/+ metric. We don't expect the Aggies to drop too precipitously after the loss to Arkansas either, since teams aren't punished for close games played against top teams.
We ran expected win totals for A&M for the rest of the year, as well as expected wins if A&M played the full schedule of each SEC team. The results are in the following table:
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Texas A&M in the SEC
Projected win totals if Texas A&M played the full schedule of each team in the SEC this season:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Aggies vs. SEC Schedules</TH><TH>
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The conference data isn't an apples-to-apples comparison since SEC teams play eight conference games and Big 12 teams play nine this season. But in terms of win percentage, only Georgia's conference schedule presents an easier slate than what the Aggies face in Big 12 play this year (the Bulldogs don't face Alabama, LSU or Arkansas). In terms of overall schedule, only South Carolina faces an easier slate than Texas A&M.
On average, an SEC schedule should result in a loss of about one extra game per year for the Aggies. In terms of the likelihood of competing for a national championship, the road through the SEC is so much more difficult. A team of Texas A&M's strength would have a small (2 percent) chance of running the table against its Big 12 schedule this year. Against Arkansas' schedule, that small opportunity all but vanishes (0.2 percent).
All these figures are based on the current ratings of SEC teams, and it is difficult to predict whether the Aggies will be able to improve their program power strength or whether they may take a step back. Heading into the season, Texas A&M ranked No. 56 in Program FEI, a five-year weighted measure of program strength and the baseline for preseason projections. Only top-20 Program FEI teams can expect to compete for a national championship the following season.
The Aggies ranked sixth among Big 12 teams heading into the year in Program FEI, but 12th among their new SEC mates (only Vanderbilt ranked below A&M). A strong 2011 campaign will boost the program rating, but it is an uphill climb in the SEC. Five SEC programs ranked among the top 16 before the year began. In terms of recent program power, Texas A&M starts near the bottom of the heap.
Of course, those Program FEI ratings are based on a five-year period in which Texas A&M wasn't particularly strong. But for each of those Aggies teams, the grind of an SEC schedule would have been even tougher than the Big 12 road it faced. That's almost entirely because the middle and lower tiers of the SEC have been consistently stronger than those of any other conference. From 2006-10, Texas A&M went 20-20 in Big 12 play. Against an average SEC schedule over the same time frame, the Aggies would have been expected to be 16-24 or worse.
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Texas A&M during last five seasons
Projected wins for the Aggies if they played in the SEC during the past five seasons:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Texas A&M vs. …</TH><TH>2006</TH><TH>2007</TH><TH>2008</TH><TH>2009</TH><TH>2010</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Average SEC Schedule</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>2.4</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>3.0</TD><TD>4.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Texas A&M Schedule</TD><TD>6.1</TD><TD>2.9</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>4.3</TD><TD>5.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Conference Wins</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Undefeated vs. SEC</TD><TD>0.51%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.07%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Undefeated vs. B12</TD><TD>10.28%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.03%</TD><TD>1.20%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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If Texas A&M does join the top half of the conference in terms of program power, it will be that much harder for any SEC team to go undefeated in conference play. The top teams have to play one another, and someone has to lose. If there are five or more top-20 teams in the same conference, a 9-3 record may be an expected outcome for the conference champion. And in the current BCS landscape, even more schedule difficulty might keep SEC teams out of the championship.
At this point, we can only speculate as to Texas A&M's future status in the SEC hierarchy. The conference alignment dance may not yet be complete and there are SEC divisions to be worked out, which could shed more light on the schedule difficultly that lies ahead. But from our vantage point, it either looks like Texas A&M will struggle to break into the upper echelon or the SEC will have an even tougher time fielding an undefeated champion. On the field, this may be a lose-lose for the Aggies and the SEC.
Facing a full SEC schedule will present major difficulties for Texas A&M
By Brian Fremeau
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
The Texas A&M Aggies could use some good news. A top-10 ranking and dreams of contending for a national championship went up in smoke in the last two weekends. Texas A&M blew three-score second-half leads in consecutive weeks against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Arkansas Razorbacks to fall to 2-2 and the bottom of the Associated Press and USA Today polls.
Saturday's loss to the Razorbacks was an especially bitter pill to swallow. Not only are the Razorbacks longtime rivals of the Aggies -- dating back to the days of the old Southwest Conference -- but Arkansas is a future SEC rival as well. And on the heels of Texas A&M's official announcement last week that it will join the Southeastern Conference in 2012, the Aggies were hoping to make a statement that they were ready to be an immediate impact contender in the top conference in the country.
Now, one loss in 2011 doesn't seal the fate for Texas A&M in the SEC for years to come. But according to our Football Outsiders research based on several years of play-by-play and drive efficiency data, Texas A&M is expected to struggle once it joins the SEC.
<OFFER>
Heading into last weekend, Texas A&M ranked No. 14 in our overall F/+ metric. We don't expect the Aggies to drop too precipitously after the loss to Arkansas either, since teams aren't punished for close games played against top teams.
We ran expected win totals for A&M for the rest of the year, as well as expected wins if A&M played the full schedule of each SEC team. The results are in the following table:
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Texas A&M in the SEC
Projected win totals if Texas A&M played the full schedule of each team in the SEC this season:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Aggies vs. SEC Schedules</TH><TH>
Total Wins
</TH><TH>Conf Wins
</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Georgia Bulldogs</TD><TD>8.7
</TD><TD>6.5
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>South Carolina Gamecocks</TD><TD>9.1
</TD><TD>6.1
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Alabama Crimson Tide</TD><TD>7.7
</TD><TD>5.7
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>LSU Tigers</TD><TD>8.4
</TD><TD>5.7
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ole Miss Rebels</TD><TD>8.9
</TD><TD>5.6
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kentucky Wildcats</TD><TD>9.0
</TD><TD>5.6
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Arkansas Razorbacks</TD><TD>8.6
</TD><TD>5.5
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mississippi State Bulldogs</TD><TD>8.5
</TD><TD>5.1
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Florida Gators</TD><TD>8.3
</TD><TD>5.1
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Vanderbilt Commodores</TD><TD>8.4
</TD><TD>5.0
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tennessee Volunteers</TD><TD>8.1
</TD><TD>4.7
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Auburn Tigers</TD><TD>7.4
</TD><TD>4.4
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Average SEC Schedule</TD><TD>8.5
</TD><TD>5.4
</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Texas A&M Schedule</TD><TD>9.1
</TD><TD>6.9
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- end inline 1 -->
The conference data isn't an apples-to-apples comparison since SEC teams play eight conference games and Big 12 teams play nine this season. But in terms of win percentage, only Georgia's conference schedule presents an easier slate than what the Aggies face in Big 12 play this year (the Bulldogs don't face Alabama, LSU or Arkansas). In terms of overall schedule, only South Carolina faces an easier slate than Texas A&M.
On average, an SEC schedule should result in a loss of about one extra game per year for the Aggies. In terms of the likelihood of competing for a national championship, the road through the SEC is so much more difficult. A team of Texas A&M's strength would have a small (2 percent) chance of running the table against its Big 12 schedule this year. Against Arkansas' schedule, that small opportunity all but vanishes (0.2 percent).
All these figures are based on the current ratings of SEC teams, and it is difficult to predict whether the Aggies will be able to improve their program power strength or whether they may take a step back. Heading into the season, Texas A&M ranked No. 56 in Program FEI, a five-year weighted measure of program strength and the baseline for preseason projections. Only top-20 Program FEI teams can expect to compete for a national championship the following season.
The Aggies ranked sixth among Big 12 teams heading into the year in Program FEI, but 12th among their new SEC mates (only Vanderbilt ranked below A&M). A strong 2011 campaign will boost the program rating, but it is an uphill climb in the SEC. Five SEC programs ranked among the top 16 before the year began. In terms of recent program power, Texas A&M starts near the bottom of the heap.
Of course, those Program FEI ratings are based on a five-year period in which Texas A&M wasn't particularly strong. But for each of those Aggies teams, the grind of an SEC schedule would have been even tougher than the Big 12 road it faced. That's almost entirely because the middle and lower tiers of the SEC have been consistently stronger than those of any other conference. From 2006-10, Texas A&M went 20-20 in Big 12 play. Against an average SEC schedule over the same time frame, the Aggies would have been expected to be 16-24 or worse.
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Texas A&M during last five seasons
Projected wins for the Aggies if they played in the SEC during the past five seasons:
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Texas A&M vs. …</TH><TH>2006</TH><TH>2007</TH><TH>2008</TH><TH>2009</TH><TH>2010</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Average SEC Schedule</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>2.4</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>3.0</TD><TD>4.2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Texas A&M Schedule</TD><TD>6.1</TD><TD>2.9</TD><TD>1.5</TD><TD>4.3</TD><TD>5.1</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Conference Wins</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Undefeated vs. SEC</TD><TD>0.51%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.07%</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Undefeated vs. B12</TD><TD>10.28%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.00%</TD><TD>0.03%</TD><TD>1.20%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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If Texas A&M does join the top half of the conference in terms of program power, it will be that much harder for any SEC team to go undefeated in conference play. The top teams have to play one another, and someone has to lose. If there are five or more top-20 teams in the same conference, a 9-3 record may be an expected outcome for the conference champion. And in the current BCS landscape, even more schedule difficulty might keep SEC teams out of the championship.
At this point, we can only speculate as to Texas A&M's future status in the SEC hierarchy. The conference alignment dance may not yet be complete and there are SEC divisions to be worked out, which could shed more light on the schedule difficultly that lies ahead. But from our vantage point, it either looks like Texas A&M will struggle to break into the upper echelon or the SEC will have an even tougher time fielding an undefeated champion. On the field, this may be a lose-lose for the Aggies and the SEC.
