The early Week 5 NFL betting trends
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- In Week 4 of the NFL season, there were a lot of games that were proverbial coin-flips.
On Sunday, seven of the 14 day games came down to the final score of the game determining the point-spread winner, and when all the games had been played by Monday night, favorites and underdogs had split 8-8 against the spread.
Because of the standard 10 percent vig that bookies charge, they love it when results are around 50/50 and games are wavering back and forth around the spread with no clear right side or wrong side (except when bettors are hitting all their teasers on both sides, but that's a column for another day).
<!-- begin inline 1 -->SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants who put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->So any sports books would love to have been booking the Hilton SuperContestants' plays this past weekend, or so far this season for that matter, as the 517 entrants (with two not putting in plays) went a combined 1,291-1,284 (50.1 percent) ATS and are now a total of 3,882-3,771 (50.7 percent) ATS on the season.
The consensus plays -- determined by the number of players who took each team -- went 7-9 ATS in Week 4 to drop to 31-30-3 (50.8 percent after tossing out the pushes) ATS on the season. The composite record was nudged over .500 by the fact that the best bets -- the top five plays ranked by the number of times they were picked -- went 3-2 ATS to improve to 10-8-2 (55.6 percent) on the year.
The New Orleans Saints minus-6.5 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, chosen by 174 SuperContestants, and the New England Patriots minus-4 versus the Oakland Raiders, picked by 162, were relatively easy winners, as was the fourth-most selected team, the Washington Redskins pick 'em versus the St. Louis Rams (with 124 Contestants taking Washington). But the 159 players who took the Minnesota Vikings minus-1 versus the Kansas City Chiefs lost 22-17 in a back-and-forth game and the 122 who chose the Atlanta Falcons minus-4.5 versus the Seattle Seahawks fell victim to a classic backdoor cover after Atlanta built a 27-7 lead early in the second half only to have Seattle rally to make the final score 30-28.
When all the dust and recycled bits of tire had settled, the SuperContestant who goes by the alias Sans Souci had gone 3-2. He (or she, to be PC) entered the lead with a 1.5-point lead and maintained that margin with an overall record of 16-3-1 ATS with Samswins.com2 alone in second place. Samswins.com is another entry in a tie for third place with 14.5 points along with Sons of Ditka, Robert C Best, Pagermager and Gameanalysts.com.
And as would be expected, there are a lot of SuperContestants around .500.
Where the money is going in Week 5?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend. SuperContestants might have a harder time finding five plays they like this week, with six teams on byes and only 13 games on the schedule after the 16 we've enjoyed each week so far.
<OFFER>• The Hilton also posts advance lines every Tuesday for the games of the following week. So when the Week 5 lines were first posted last Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 1-point favorites at the San Francisco 49ers. But after the 49ers improved to 3-1 with their road upset of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Bucs struggled to get past the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, the Hilton posted its "opener" on the game this Tuesday morning with the 49ers minus-2.5.
• That's one of several games that are under a field goal, and the number of times they're taken by SuperContestants will likely be determined by what contest number is posted. If the line stays under the key number of 3, there will be more players laying the short price on the favorite, but more players will jump on the dog if they can get plus-3. Besides the Bucs-Niners, those other games are the Cardinals-Vikings, Eagles-Bills and Bengals-Jaguars.
• Another big adjustment from the advance Hilton lines is the Patriots, who were minus-6 a week ago for their rivalry game with the New York Jets. After the Pats got back on track with their rout of the Raiders and the Jets got blown out by the Ravens on national TV on Sunday night, the Pats were put back up at minus-8.5 and have been bet up to 9.5, with a chance to get to minus-10. Again, a lot more SuperContestants -- and bettors in general -- would jump on the Jets at that price, as double-digit dogs are 5-2 ATS this season, with the 49ers the first to pull off the outright upset (though they were just plus-9.5 in the SuperContest last week). The Seahawks are the other team that could be a double-digit dog this week at the Giants.
• The three spreads that have really moved from their openers posted Sunday are the Raiders from plus-8 to plus-6 versus the Texans, the Broncos from plus-5.5 to plus-4 versus the Chargers and the Packers from minus-3.5 to minus-5.5 (and even minus-6 at some books as of Tuesday morning) versus the Falcons. While the Texans routed the Steelers, the Raiders didn't get downgraded in bettors' minds off their loss to the Patriots. That's why the line has gone back under a touchdown, as they've been competitive so far, even on the road. Home underdogs often get respect (see item below), so that could be why the Broncos are getting support at the windows, plus the fact that bettors can look past a loss to the Packers. The home-dog angle isn't helping the Falcons get support, but that's probably due to nearly letting their game at Seattle slip away.
• In our weekly rundown of how the home underdogs are faring, they went 3-4 ATS in Week 4 to slip to 14-10-2 on the year, but the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals both pulled outright upsets. This week's home dogs look to be the Bills plus-2.5 or plus-3 versus the Eagles, the Panthers plus-6 versus the Saints, the Broncos plus-4 versus the Chargers and the Falcons plus-5.5 versus the Packers.
Bruno's Boys, the 2001 SuperContest champ, went 4-1 last week to climb back over .500 and into contention at 11-8-1 overall. Most of the other former champs and other familiar names we're tracking are hovering around the .500 mark. Defending champ Richard Stand went 3-2 to improve slightly to 8-10-2, while Fezzik -- who won back-to-back titles in 2008-09 -- slipped a little at 2-3 to sit at 9-10-1. Jarhead, the 2006 champ, is also at 9-10-1 after a 3-2 week. Bill Simmons of grantland.com finished in the top 20 last year but he also got off to a slow start. He didn't want to release his alias until he was over .500, but he confirmed he's playing as Simbotics, which went 4-1 in Week 4 to climb to 10-9-1. As far as the authors of this blog, my ViewFromVegas.com entry went 3-2 to get back to .500 at 10-10, while Dead Money Millman went 4-1 to improve to 9-11 (and don't get him started on that Arizona game).
By Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- In Week 4 of the NFL season, there were a lot of games that were proverbial coin-flips.
On Sunday, seven of the 14 day games came down to the final score of the game determining the point-spread winner, and when all the games had been played by Monday night, favorites and underdogs had split 8-8 against the spread.
Because of the standard 10 percent vig that bookies charge, they love it when results are around 50/50 and games are wavering back and forth around the spread with no clear right side or wrong side (except when bettors are hitting all their teasers on both sides, but that's a column for another day).
<!-- begin inline 1 -->SuperContest At A Glance
What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants who put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.
<!-- end inline 1 -->So any sports books would love to have been booking the Hilton SuperContestants' plays this past weekend, or so far this season for that matter, as the 517 entrants (with two not putting in plays) went a combined 1,291-1,284 (50.1 percent) ATS and are now a total of 3,882-3,771 (50.7 percent) ATS on the season.
The consensus plays -- determined by the number of players who took each team -- went 7-9 ATS in Week 4 to drop to 31-30-3 (50.8 percent after tossing out the pushes) ATS on the season. The composite record was nudged over .500 by the fact that the best bets -- the top five plays ranked by the number of times they were picked -- went 3-2 ATS to improve to 10-8-2 (55.6 percent) on the year.
The New Orleans Saints minus-6.5 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, chosen by 174 SuperContestants, and the New England Patriots minus-4 versus the Oakland Raiders, picked by 162, were relatively easy winners, as was the fourth-most selected team, the Washington Redskins pick 'em versus the St. Louis Rams (with 124 Contestants taking Washington). But the 159 players who took the Minnesota Vikings minus-1 versus the Kansas City Chiefs lost 22-17 in a back-and-forth game and the 122 who chose the Atlanta Falcons minus-4.5 versus the Seattle Seahawks fell victim to a classic backdoor cover after Atlanta built a 27-7 lead early in the second half only to have Seattle rally to make the final score 30-28.
When all the dust and recycled bits of tire had settled, the SuperContestant who goes by the alias Sans Souci had gone 3-2. He (or she, to be PC) entered the lead with a 1.5-point lead and maintained that margin with an overall record of 16-3-1 ATS with Samswins.com2 alone in second place. Samswins.com is another entry in a tie for third place with 14.5 points along with Sons of Ditka, Robert C Best, Pagermager and Gameanalysts.com.
And as would be expected, there are a lot of SuperContestants around .500.
Where the money is going in Week 5?
Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend. SuperContestants might have a harder time finding five plays they like this week, with six teams on byes and only 13 games on the schedule after the 16 we've enjoyed each week so far.
<OFFER>• The Hilton also posts advance lines every Tuesday for the games of the following week. So when the Week 5 lines were first posted last Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 1-point favorites at the San Francisco 49ers. But after the 49ers improved to 3-1 with their road upset of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Bucs struggled to get past the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, the Hilton posted its "opener" on the game this Tuesday morning with the 49ers minus-2.5.
• That's one of several games that are under a field goal, and the number of times they're taken by SuperContestants will likely be determined by what contest number is posted. If the line stays under the key number of 3, there will be more players laying the short price on the favorite, but more players will jump on the dog if they can get plus-3. Besides the Bucs-Niners, those other games are the Cardinals-Vikings, Eagles-Bills and Bengals-Jaguars.
• Another big adjustment from the advance Hilton lines is the Patriots, who were minus-6 a week ago for their rivalry game with the New York Jets. After the Pats got back on track with their rout of the Raiders and the Jets got blown out by the Ravens on national TV on Sunday night, the Pats were put back up at minus-8.5 and have been bet up to 9.5, with a chance to get to minus-10. Again, a lot more SuperContestants -- and bettors in general -- would jump on the Jets at that price, as double-digit dogs are 5-2 ATS this season, with the 49ers the first to pull off the outright upset (though they were just plus-9.5 in the SuperContest last week). The Seahawks are the other team that could be a double-digit dog this week at the Giants.
• The three spreads that have really moved from their openers posted Sunday are the Raiders from plus-8 to plus-6 versus the Texans, the Broncos from plus-5.5 to plus-4 versus the Chargers and the Packers from minus-3.5 to minus-5.5 (and even minus-6 at some books as of Tuesday morning) versus the Falcons. While the Texans routed the Steelers, the Raiders didn't get downgraded in bettors' minds off their loss to the Patriots. That's why the line has gone back under a touchdown, as they've been competitive so far, even on the road. Home underdogs often get respect (see item below), so that could be why the Broncos are getting support at the windows, plus the fact that bettors can look past a loss to the Packers. The home-dog angle isn't helping the Falcons get support, but that's probably due to nearly letting their game at Seattle slip away.
• In our weekly rundown of how the home underdogs are faring, they went 3-4 ATS in Week 4 to slip to 14-10-2 on the year, but the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals both pulled outright upsets. This week's home dogs look to be the Bills plus-2.5 or plus-3 versus the Eagles, the Panthers plus-6 versus the Saints, the Broncos plus-4 versus the Chargers and the Falcons plus-5.5 versus the Packers.
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Familiar names bounce backBruno's Boys, the 2001 SuperContest champ, went 4-1 last week to climb back over .500 and into contention at 11-8-1 overall. Most of the other former champs and other familiar names we're tracking are hovering around the .500 mark. Defending champ Richard Stand went 3-2 to improve slightly to 8-10-2, while Fezzik -- who won back-to-back titles in 2008-09 -- slipped a little at 2-3 to sit at 9-10-1. Jarhead, the 2006 champ, is also at 9-10-1 after a 3-2 week. Bill Simmons of grantland.com finished in the top 20 last year but he also got off to a slow start. He didn't want to release his alias until he was over .500, but he confirmed he's playing as Simbotics, which went 4-1 in Week 4 to climb to 10-9-1. As far as the authors of this blog, my ViewFromVegas.com entry went 3-2 to get back to .500 at 10-10, while Dead Money Millman went 4-1 to improve to 9-11 (and don't get him started on that Arizona game).
