Should we doubt the Detroit Lions?
Power Rankings gives Lions credit, but do style points matter? Undervaluing Philly,
By Chris Sprow
ESPN Insider
Each week this season, Chris Sprow will consult with Vegas experts such as Jay Kornegay of the Vegas Hilton and use projection systems to dive into the numbers to point out which teams the human voters are overselling or underselling.
It was another good week in this space. We pegged the Bills and Jets as a bit overrated, and both fell. We pegged the Niners as the team getting the least respect among the underrated group, and they pulled off a big road win. But a couple of those games are creating what seems to be the storyline that makes these teams harder than ever to peg: an early epidemic of blown leads.
Seriously, if blowing leads is cool, the NFL in Week 4 is Miles Davis. Philly squandered a 23-3 lead, Buffalo built a 17-3 lead and lost, Minnesota predictably gave up a second-half lead (they're 4-for-4 this year!), Atlanta nearly lost after holding a 27-7 lead, and Dallas … well, let's spare their fans and just search-engine optimize: Romo. Jerry Jones. Megatron. Rob Ryan. Andy Rooney.
The problem we face with blown leads is that building leads is the mark of a good NFL team, as basic as that sounds. Go to halftime with a 17-point lead, like Dallas and Philly did in Week 4, and you win about 95 percent of your games. Do we drop those teams significantly because they blew it, or ask whether their coaches will, say, consider running the ball a little bit with a lead? Even with Michael Vick turning some passes into runs, Philly still finished with 46 throws and 20 carries in a game it led for over 50 minutes. Dallas finished with a 47-27 pass-to-run ratio in a game it also led for over 50 minutes. The instinct is to drop them, but the metrics often tell you otherwise. Judge them on the simple win or loss, or factor in things that could be correctable?
Is Dallas any worse a team this week than it was last week, when it had the Detroit Lions completely dead to rights and yet continued to aggressively throw the ball? Think about it.
Overrated
Detroit Lions
Power Rankings slot: 4
Win projection average: 9.8
Super Bowl odds: 10-1
The Lions are tough to gauge, even for their own fans. (Believe us, we know.) The instinct is to say they are overrated at No. 4 because they've been fortunate to win each of the last two weeks, when they've gone to halftime down a combined 40-3. But they've also done what the rest of the league hasn't -- they've won on the road. Detroit is 3-0 on the road; the rest of the league is a combined 21-40. They've relied on opposing teams' mistakes and a well-covered Calvin Johnson, but they've forced those mistakes and been smart enough to throw to a covered Johnson. So clearly we can't choose the wine in front of us! With good arguments on both sides, we can understand Vegas -- they have Detroit with Super Bowl odds now putting them in the top seven, and a win projection average (one we see as too low) also seventh. Essentially, the numbers are saying the Lions are in the upper echelon, a good step for Detroit, really, but a few suspicions remain. That's fair.
<OFFER>More fitting rank: 6
Rising or falling: Detroit should be favored in each of its next six games, and gets the next three at home. Time to justify the lofty ranking. Rising.
Tennessee Titans
Power Rankings slot: 8
Win projection average: 8.5
Super Bowl odds: 30-1
Bottom line: The sharps are extremely leery of the Titans. The quality win over Baltimore is offset against the loss to lowly Jacksonville, thus you have a team with wins over Denver and Cleveland in the top 10. Eh -- maybe the sharps have a point. Tennessee has the 32nd-ranked ground game, but that's because defenses are stacking the box, and Matt Hasselbeck has taken advantage. It's hard to draw full conclusions about this team yet, and Vegas concurs, with Super Bowl odds still no better than 16 other teams.
More fitting rank: 12
Rising or falling: Last week, Houston faced a litmus-test game hosting Pittsburgh. Tennessee gets the same in visiting Pittsburgh this week. Push.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rankings slot: 11
Win projection average: 8.3
Super Bowl odds: 30-1
You'd think a home win on "Monday Night Football" would help the cause. But Vegas was still awake when the Bucs went into the fourth quarter trailing the Luck-less Colts; they were rightfully unimpressed. Tampa's win projection total is still worse than 16 other teams, and odds also have them squarely in the middle. Bottom line: This is a good team that isn't passing the eye test yet.
More fitting rank: 15
Rising or falling: They'll open as dogs in San Francisco in what could be a really low total. Do 35 points get scored in that one? Push.
Watch out for: The Luck Bowl, Pt. 1 will kick off in Indianapolis on Sunday when the Colts take on the Chiefs. This may be one of the toughest games for oddsmakers all year: Does either team want to win?
Underrated
Dallas Cowboys
Power Rankings slot: 17
Win projection average: 8.3
Super Bowl odds: 25-1
The suspicion here is the Cowboys have become this year's "best day" team. They're too enigmatic to project to win a ton of games, but there's not a single team that wants to face Dallas on its best day. In NCAA tourney betting pools, they'd be the No. 9 seed half the sharps pick for the Final Four. Consider: Only nine teams have better Super Bowl odds. Couldn't Dallas easily be 4-0 right now?
More fitting rank: 11
Rising or falling: In its next four, Dallas will be the clear home favorite twice (Rams, Seahawks) and a road dog twice (Patriots, Eagles). If the Cowboys go 3-1, they should be happy. Push.
San Francisco 49ers
Power Rankings slot: 16
Win projection average: 9.2
Super Bowl odds: 40-1
People don't trust this offense, and the odds aren't great, but you can't ignore it -- the Niners are now runaway favorites in their division. After only four weeks, they win the West in 80 percent of simulations. Now only nine teams are pegged to win more games.
More fitting rank: 13
Rising or falling: San Fran can get a bump if it tops Tampa this week. It could also give Detroit problems in two weeks. Rising.
Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rankings slot: 20
Win projection average: 8.4
Super Bowl odds: 25-1
Like a spoiled kid determined to blow the trust fund and start over at 25, the Eagles are a mess, but we can't ignore the ceiling if they get on track. They lost at Atlanta after holding a late 10-point lead when Vick was knocked out of the game, and blew a 20-point lead Sunday after they refused to simply run the ball a little bit. They're ranked No. 20, but only nine teams have better Super Bowl odds.
More fitting rank: 14
Rising or falling: We think they can win at Buffalo (already sitting minus-3) and get back on the rise. We think. Rising.
Watch out for: The New York Giants may be too high for some this week, but they could very well be 6-1 before traveling to New England based on how the schedule sets up.
Power Rankings gives Lions credit, but do style points matter? Undervaluing Philly,
By Chris Sprow
ESPN Insider
Each week this season, Chris Sprow will consult with Vegas experts such as Jay Kornegay of the Vegas Hilton and use projection systems to dive into the numbers to point out which teams the human voters are overselling or underselling.
It was another good week in this space. We pegged the Bills and Jets as a bit overrated, and both fell. We pegged the Niners as the team getting the least respect among the underrated group, and they pulled off a big road win. But a couple of those games are creating what seems to be the storyline that makes these teams harder than ever to peg: an early epidemic of blown leads.
Seriously, if blowing leads is cool, the NFL in Week 4 is Miles Davis. Philly squandered a 23-3 lead, Buffalo built a 17-3 lead and lost, Minnesota predictably gave up a second-half lead (they're 4-for-4 this year!), Atlanta nearly lost after holding a 27-7 lead, and Dallas … well, let's spare their fans and just search-engine optimize: Romo. Jerry Jones. Megatron. Rob Ryan. Andy Rooney.
The problem we face with blown leads is that building leads is the mark of a good NFL team, as basic as that sounds. Go to halftime with a 17-point lead, like Dallas and Philly did in Week 4, and you win about 95 percent of your games. Do we drop those teams significantly because they blew it, or ask whether their coaches will, say, consider running the ball a little bit with a lead? Even with Michael Vick turning some passes into runs, Philly still finished with 46 throws and 20 carries in a game it led for over 50 minutes. Dallas finished with a 47-27 pass-to-run ratio in a game it also led for over 50 minutes. The instinct is to drop them, but the metrics often tell you otherwise. Judge them on the simple win or loss, or factor in things that could be correctable?
Is Dallas any worse a team this week than it was last week, when it had the Detroit Lions completely dead to rights and yet continued to aggressively throw the ball? Think about it.
Overrated
Detroit Lions
Power Rankings slot: 4
Win projection average: 9.8
Super Bowl odds: 10-1
The Lions are tough to gauge, even for their own fans. (Believe us, we know.) The instinct is to say they are overrated at No. 4 because they've been fortunate to win each of the last two weeks, when they've gone to halftime down a combined 40-3. But they've also done what the rest of the league hasn't -- they've won on the road. Detroit is 3-0 on the road; the rest of the league is a combined 21-40. They've relied on opposing teams' mistakes and a well-covered Calvin Johnson, but they've forced those mistakes and been smart enough to throw to a covered Johnson. So clearly we can't choose the wine in front of us! With good arguments on both sides, we can understand Vegas -- they have Detroit with Super Bowl odds now putting them in the top seven, and a win projection average (one we see as too low) also seventh. Essentially, the numbers are saying the Lions are in the upper echelon, a good step for Detroit, really, but a few suspicions remain. That's fair.
<OFFER>More fitting rank: 6
Rising or falling: Detroit should be favored in each of its next six games, and gets the next three at home. Time to justify the lofty ranking. Rising.
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Tennessee Titans
Power Rankings slot: 8
Win projection average: 8.5
Super Bowl odds: 30-1
Bottom line: The sharps are extremely leery of the Titans. The quality win over Baltimore is offset against the loss to lowly Jacksonville, thus you have a team with wins over Denver and Cleveland in the top 10. Eh -- maybe the sharps have a point. Tennessee has the 32nd-ranked ground game, but that's because defenses are stacking the box, and Matt Hasselbeck has taken advantage. It's hard to draw full conclusions about this team yet, and Vegas concurs, with Super Bowl odds still no better than 16 other teams.
More fitting rank: 12
Rising or falling: Last week, Houston faced a litmus-test game hosting Pittsburgh. Tennessee gets the same in visiting Pittsburgh this week. Push.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rankings slot: 11
Win projection average: 8.3
Super Bowl odds: 30-1
You'd think a home win on "Monday Night Football" would help the cause. But Vegas was still awake when the Bucs went into the fourth quarter trailing the Luck-less Colts; they were rightfully unimpressed. Tampa's win projection total is still worse than 16 other teams, and odds also have them squarely in the middle. Bottom line: This is a good team that isn't passing the eye test yet.
More fitting rank: 15
Rising or falling: They'll open as dogs in San Francisco in what could be a really low total. Do 35 points get scored in that one? Push.
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Watch out for: The Luck Bowl, Pt. 1 will kick off in Indianapolis on Sunday when the Colts take on the Chiefs. This may be one of the toughest games for oddsmakers all year: Does either team want to win?
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Underrated
Dallas Cowboys
Power Rankings slot: 17
Win projection average: 8.3
Super Bowl odds: 25-1
The suspicion here is the Cowboys have become this year's "best day" team. They're too enigmatic to project to win a ton of games, but there's not a single team that wants to face Dallas on its best day. In NCAA tourney betting pools, they'd be the No. 9 seed half the sharps pick for the Final Four. Consider: Only nine teams have better Super Bowl odds. Couldn't Dallas easily be 4-0 right now?
More fitting rank: 11
Rising or falling: In its next four, Dallas will be the clear home favorite twice (Rams, Seahawks) and a road dog twice (Patriots, Eagles). If the Cowboys go 3-1, they should be happy. Push.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
San Francisco 49ers
Power Rankings slot: 16
Win projection average: 9.2
Super Bowl odds: 40-1
People don't trust this offense, and the odds aren't great, but you can't ignore it -- the Niners are now runaway favorites in their division. After only four weeks, they win the West in 80 percent of simulations. Now only nine teams are pegged to win more games.
More fitting rank: 13
Rising or falling: San Fran can get a bump if it tops Tampa this week. It could also give Detroit problems in two weeks. Rising.
<HR style="WIDTH: 50%">
Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rankings slot: 20
Win projection average: 8.4
Super Bowl odds: 25-1
Like a spoiled kid determined to blow the trust fund and start over at 25, the Eagles are a mess, but we can't ignore the ceiling if they get on track. They lost at Atlanta after holding a late 10-point lead when Vick was knocked out of the game, and blew a 20-point lead Sunday after they refused to simply run the ball a little bit. They're ranked No. 20, but only nine teams have better Super Bowl odds.
More fitting rank: 14
Rising or falling: We think they can win at Buffalo (already sitting minus-3) and get back on the rise. We think. Rising.
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Watch out for: The New York Giants may be too high for some this week, but they could very well be 6-1 before traveling to New England based on how the schedule sets up.
