what are your guys thoughts on the games for Friday?

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Milwaukee -172 over under 7.5
Philadelphia -193 over under 6.5

(those are the lines I have as of 11:30 CT)

Early thoughts for me are that Id love to take Milwaukee at home, but -172 against a cy young candidate in Ian Kennedy? Brewers did hit him pretty well the last time, it will be hard to repeat that again in the same series. The under looks tempting at 7.5.

Trends in this game say Milwaukee to win at home (49-18), but Arizona has been good as well dominating there last 38 overall games (27-11). Milwaukee over is 7-1 last 9 on grass and 7-1 last 9 overall.
As for what I think, I might be biased here but I would have a hard time betting against the Brewers and Yovani at home, on the otherside Ian Kennedy at that +money is good value.

and for the Phillie game, I said I would take Carpenter anyday of the week at +170, well he is +168 for me right now, and I might make an exception with Halladay pitching. Two solid pitchers might be a good under.

Trends say Over. Philly over is 10-2-2 home playoff games, over is 6-1 in Carpenters last 8 starts vs philly, and over is 6-2 in a game following a Stlouis win. As for a side the trends kinda say Stlouis. StLouis is 12-4 last 16 road games, Stlouis is 18-7 last 25 overall, and Phillys are 1-7 in last 8 home games, but are 6-2 in 8 last overall.

My feel, its tough to bet against Halladay, you know your probably getting 8 innings minnimum, Carpenter struggles against philly, to me, this is Phillys day.

Alot of time before these games go off. hoping to get the input we had for last nights game going.
 

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Yeah I think Vegas has planted the seed to where heavy favorites dont win, and I think alot of people have seen that now, think the Fav's win today.
 

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lol whoops that didnt help very much...lets me break that down in a second, I know your a Card fan and took offense to that but it is what it is.
 

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Carpenter has 71.2 IP 73 Hits allowed 33 Runs 11 HR 17 BB 54 K's (good k/bb ratio) 4.14 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP vs Philly in his career


His last outing being a playoff game and at philly Carpenters numbers were

3 IP 5 Hits 4 ER 3 BB 2 K's 12.00 ERA (although Stlouis did come back and win this game)
 

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lol whoops that didnt help very much...lets me break that down in a second, I know your a Card fan and took offense to that but it is what it is.


Nope, didn't take offense...just haven't looked at the numbers since game 2 so I was wondering.
 

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Mr. rogers.. Ian kennedy at that price.. impossible not to take it... good value in that line, as far as phillies and cards, i might just sit back and enjoy the duel... too hard to pick a side
 

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Mr. rogers.. Ian kennedy at that price.. impossible not to take it... good value in that line, as far as phillies and cards, i might just sit back and enjoy the duel... too hard to pick a side

I agree, Kennedy isnt a slouch.

but tonight for me its either Milwaukee, or a no play. I will not be cheering against the Brewers today.
 

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I am very high on Diamondbacks tonight. I very much expect an Ian Kennedy gem and an easy 5-1 type win.
 

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Carpenter has 71.2 IP 73 Hits allowed 33 Runs 11 HR 17 BB 54 K's (good k/bb ratio) 4.14 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP vs Philly in his career


His last outing being a playoff game and at philly Carpenters numbers were

3 IP 5 Hits 4 ER 3 BB 2 K's 12.00 ERA (although Stlouis did come back and win this game)

Ok so obviously I was going to come back with my own numbers :)

First, Carpenter was clearly off in game 2 because of throwing on three days rest for the first time in his life. Today, he's on full rest after only throwing I think 65 pitches.


Onto numbers I think are more relevant (becasue they back up my point, obviously)

Current Philly batters are batting .211/.231/.289/.520 vs Carpenter (watch out for Utley though, .467 in 15 ABs)

Numbers career vs what Phillies lineup was in Game 2...number of ABs in parentheses
Rollins .179/.179/.179/.357 (28)
Utley (see above)
Pence .182/.182/.409/.591 (22)
Howard .222/.222/.556/.778 (8)
Victorino .300/.300/.400/.700 (10)
Ibanez .091/.091/.091/.182 (11)
Polanco .313/.353/.438/.790 (16)
Ruiz .000/.000/.000/.000 (6)

A few small samples...but I'm not to scared of that lineup

Numbers vs Philly as a team that I deem more relevant than career numbers for what I think is pretty decent reasons:

Starts in the last 3 years (09,10,11)
'11- 2-0, 15 IP, 13 hits, 1 ER, 12Ks, 2 BBs
'10 1-0, 8 IP, 5 Hits, 1 ER, 4Ks, 1 BB
'09 0-0, 0 GS



You have to go back to 2006 to find a bad start by Carpenter vs Philladelphia. Let's look back at that '06 lineup.

rollins
Nunez
Abreu
Utley
Burell
Howard
Rowand
Lberthal

So 3 similiar batters, who went a combined 5-14. Not bad...but not exactly the type of game I want included when I'm trying to cap a game.


Reasons that Philly will win (to show I'm unbiased)
Halladay's on the mound.
Pretty sure that's all you need.


I love the under. I expect both of these pitchers to go 110+pitches, to match each other pitch for pitch, and for the game to come down to who finds their inner tony Womack (2001 NLDS, Cards D'backs)
 

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Az under shapes up like game 1. Hoping for a 2-1, 3-2 kinda battle. Much like last night, pitchers will get yanked at the first sight of problems....but both starters are rested and capable of shutting down the other team.
 

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Ok so obviously I was going to come back with my own numbers :)

First, Carpenter was clearly off in game 2 because of throwing on three days rest for the first time in his life. Today, he's on full rest after only throwing I think 65 pitches.


Onto numbers I think are more relevant (becasue they back up my point, obviously)

Current Philly batters are batting .211/.231/.289/.520 vs Carpenter (watch out for Utley though, .467 in 15 ABs)

Numbers career vs what Phillies lineup was in Game 2...number of ABs in parentheses
Rollins .179/.179/.179/.357 (28)
Utley (see above)
Pence .182/.182/.409/.591 (22)
Howard .222/.222/.556/.778 (8)
Victorino .300/.300/.400/.700 (10)
Ibanez .091/.091/.091/.182 (11)
Polanco .313/.353/.438/.790 (16)
Ruiz .000/.000/.000/.000 (6)

A few small samples...but I'm not to scared of that lineup

Numbers vs Philly as a team that I deem more relevant than career numbers for what I think is pretty decent reasons:

Starts in the last 3 years (09,10,11)
'11- 2-0, 15 IP, 13 hits, 1 ER, 12Ks, 2 BBs
'10 1-0, 8 IP, 5 Hits, 1 ER, 4Ks, 1 BB
'09 0-0, 0 GS




You have to go back to 2006 to find a bad start by Carpenter vs Philladelphia. Let's look back at that '06 lineup.

rollins
Nunez
Abreu
Utley
Burell
Howard
Rowand
Lberthal

So 3 similiar batters, who went a combined 5-14. Not bad...but not exactly the type of game I want included when I'm trying to cap a game.


Reasons that Philly will win (to show I'm unbiased)
Halladay's on the mound.
Pretty sure that's all you need.


I love the under. I expect both of these pitchers to go 110+pitches, to match each other pitch for pitch, and for the game to come down to who finds their inner tony Womack (2001 NLDS, Cards D'backs)

you left off the last playoff game in '11

and the other start was September 18th when the Phillies were really coasting and losing an un-normal amount of games, wher Carp went 8 IP and pitched a gem, scattering 8 hits walking 1 striking out 5

but those are some good regular season numbers..

I havent made a wager, I do have World Series future bet on Stlouis at +4000, so I may just lay off this game.
 

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I left out that game but figured anyone capping this game knows about it, especially since I quote your post. In all honesty, that's what's giving me the most pause is the game 2 start-in my head, I want to debate that Carpenter going on 3 days rest was just not smart and his body didn't respond as well as hoped, but in reality I'm not sure.


As far as the Phillies taking the game easy, yes, that makes sense, but there's also the two other starts the past two years (One on June 23rd this year, where everyone but Pence was in the lineup from the looks of it).

I see it being a great game. Hoping for the Cards to pull it off.
 

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