ALCS Series Odds: Wrong team favored

jwblue · Oct 7, 2011

I don't gamble much any more, but when i see something glaring, I put some cash down. I might even make a trip to Vegas just wager on this.

The pitching matchups heavily favor the Tigers.

Scratching my head on this one. :think2:

AL Championship Series - Best of Seven (2-2-1-1-1)200
Tigers+110
Rangers-130

Not to mention, the Tigers have the most dominant pitcher in the game going for possibly 3 games.

I would put the Tigers at -150

Run with it!

sdf · Oct 7, 2011

jwblue said:
Not to mention, the Tigers have the most dominant pitcher in the game going for possibly 3 games.

by pitching twice on 3 days rest? Very risky but possible I suppose

Game 1 DET @ TEX Saturday, October 8 TBA
Game 2 DET @ TEX Sunday, October 9 TBA
Game 3 TEX @ DET Tuesday, October 11 TBA
Game 4 TEX @ DET Wednesday, October 12 TBA
Game 5 TEX @ DET* Thursday, October 13 TBA
Game 6 DET @ TEX* Saturday, October 15 TBA
Game 7 DET @ TEX* Sunday, October 16 TBA

what are the pitching matchups for all the games? I havent seen what they look like to gauge how Detroit is "heavily" favored.
The hitting certainly favors Texas. Do we consider that or is it all about starting pitching?

HookEmHorns · Oct 7, 2011

sdf said:
by pitching twice on 3 days rest? Very risky but possible I suppose

Leyland wouldn't do it in the divisional series. Would he have a change of mind in this series?

thess12345 · Oct 7, 2011

Leyland won't do it. Verlander two starts.

And we can't just look at pitchng matchups, guys.

Game 1 is Verlander vs the Rangers lineup VS Wilson vs the Tigers lineup
etc

I haven't looked at the matchups yet to figure out who I think should be favored.

mpn · Oct 7, 2011

it's close... rangers are slight faves bc of home field advantage.

jwblue · Oct 7, 2011

sdf said:
by pitching twice on 3 days rest? Very risky but possible I suppose

HookEmHorns said:
Leyland wouldn't do it in the divisional series. Would he have a change of mind in this series?

thess12345 said:
Leyland won't do it. Verlander two starts.

You guys are probably right. Verlander will probably only get two starts.

I thought I heard he might get three.

sdf said:
Game 1 DET @ TEX Saturday, October 8 TBA
Game 2 DET @ TEX Sunday, October 9 TBA
Game 3 TEX @ DET Tuesday, October 11 TBA
Game 4 TEX @ DET Wednesday, October 12 TBA
Game 5 TEX @ DET* Thursday, October 13 TBA
Game 6 DET @ TEX* Saturday, October 15 TBA
Game 7 DET @ TEX* Sunday, October 16 TBA

what are the pitching matchups for all the games? I havent seen what they look like to gauge how Detroit is "heavily" favored.
The hitting certainly favors Texas. Do we consider that or is it all about starting pitching?

Regardless of what the pitching matchups are, they will heavily favor the Tigers.

Even if Verlander only goes two, the Tigers should be -150 for the series..

I broke down the lineups and all the pitchers myself.

Off to Vegas tomorrow!

Does anyone know what the early line movement is in Las Vegas right now? Offshore, there is steam on the Rangers.

Maris9 · Oct 7, 2011

Well you got a couple things here.
1- No one is sure about whether Delmon Young's oblique will keep him out of game(s). He's definitely been one of, if not the best, hitter on Detroit the last month.

2- Detroit having to use both Fister and Scherzer vs the Yankees gm 5 means that Porcello will now have to go twice (game 2, and game 6), which is less than optimal for Detroit. The pitching matchup will most definitely not "favor the Tigers" in those situations.

I like Detroit to win the series (as long as Young plays), but I don't see it being the easy money that you do.

Maris9 · Oct 7, 2011

Edit: Looks like they might actually start Scherzer game 2. I guess he did really only throw about 2 innings.

Sekrah · Oct 7, 2011

jwblue said:
I don't gamble much any more, but when i see something glaring, I put some cash down. I might even make a trip to Vegas just wager on this.

The pitching matchups heavily favor the Tigers.

Scratching my head on this one. :think2:

AL Championship Series - Best of Seven (2-2-1-1-1)200
Tigers+110
Rangers-130

Not to mention, the Tigers have the most dominant pitcher in the game going for possibly 3 games.

I would put the Tigers at -150

Run with it!

I've watched all 9 games with both teams.....

And I couldn't disagree with you more. Rangers -135 is shaping up to be one of my plays of the year. They are superior to the Tigers. Period. Better lineup, Better starting pitching, Better bullpen. I would have taken them all the way up to -170 or -180 here.

taylor13 · Oct 7, 2011

Id be careful on being so confident the tigers win. Good chance they may be heading back to detroit in a 2-0 hole. Nice strong jet stream tomorrow, tigers throwing a righty vs lefty.....anytime there is a righty vs lefty matchup with a jet stream in Arlington, the team throwing the righty has a huge disadvantage. CJ fully rested and he is good after bad outings.....I'm telling you there is a good chance Detroit is down 2-0 when they head back north.
Verlander isn't an offspeed pitcher either, Texas will be all over his fastball if he has the balls to throw it in the jetstream tomorrow