My book currently has Arizona +150 and Milwaukee -160.
Its a rematch of Game 1, where the staff aces hooked up in a 4-1 Milwaukee win. That game had Milwaukee covering the -145 number.
The numbers for both starters are as follows:
Kennedy: All Starts - 2.95 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Road: 3.33 ERA, 1.227 WHIP
Last 3 Starts: 2.61 ERA, 0.871 WHIP
Gallardo: All Starts - 3.43, 1.194 WHIP
Home: 2.87 ERA, 1.097 WHIP
Last 3 Starts: 1.27 ERA, 0.750
I know that Gallardo has beaten Arizona 3 times this year, giving up around 4 hits each game. Kennedy is 1-1 with 1 ND. The edge here goes to Gallardo, but I'm still going with Arizona at the+150 price.
There is an angle that says when 2 starting pitchers go against each other in back to back starts, play the losing pitcher of the first game. This play hits at around 67% and is a long term profitable play. We also have a pitcher getting odds that is a Cy Young candidate, with a team swinging the bats very well right now. Game 1's can be difficult for the road team, and I'll give Arizona a pass in that one. That loss just makes the price better this time around.
Its Game 5, winner take all. Although Milwaukee has been dominant at home all year, its Game 5 and the pressure is ratcheted up. Arizona comes in a very confident team. I will go with the revenge angle, the team swinging the better bats right now, a pitcher who has been excellent all year - I don't see that much of an edge for Milwaukee. I just can't lay -160 with 2 teams and pitchers that are pretty evenly matched.
I'll play Arizona at +150. Good luck whichever way you play, and enjoy the game.
Its a rematch of Game 1, where the staff aces hooked up in a 4-1 Milwaukee win. That game had Milwaukee covering the -145 number.
The numbers for both starters are as follows:
Kennedy: All Starts - 2.95 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Road: 3.33 ERA, 1.227 WHIP
Last 3 Starts: 2.61 ERA, 0.871 WHIP
Gallardo: All Starts - 3.43, 1.194 WHIP
Home: 2.87 ERA, 1.097 WHIP
Last 3 Starts: 1.27 ERA, 0.750
I know that Gallardo has beaten Arizona 3 times this year, giving up around 4 hits each game. Kennedy is 1-1 with 1 ND. The edge here goes to Gallardo, but I'm still going with Arizona at the+150 price.
There is an angle that says when 2 starting pitchers go against each other in back to back starts, play the losing pitcher of the first game. This play hits at around 67% and is a long term profitable play. We also have a pitcher getting odds that is a Cy Young candidate, with a team swinging the bats very well right now. Game 1's can be difficult for the road team, and I'll give Arizona a pass in that one. That loss just makes the price better this time around.
Its Game 5, winner take all. Although Milwaukee has been dominant at home all year, its Game 5 and the pressure is ratcheted up. Arizona comes in a very confident team. I will go with the revenge angle, the team swinging the better bats right now, a pitcher who has been excellent all year - I don't see that much of an edge for Milwaukee. I just can't lay -160 with 2 teams and pitchers that are pretty evenly matched.
I'll play Arizona at +150. Good luck whichever way you play, and enjoy the game.
