Exbookie wants to help the players week 6

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EX BOOKIE
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Bankroll starting $75,000[/FONT]
investment plays 4-5 - $2735.00
action plays 11-10 +$865.00

Total 15-15 -$1870.00 or 1.8 units down

A song that I like that makes you feel good as a capper is Remember my Name
link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeCft3Gr8ds

I feel this is the formula!!!!

10% luck
20% shill
15% power of will
5% fun
50% pain
and
100% to remember my name......god after a win like I had last week...This song tells me how I did it....


Every week I look at all the games and after looking at the 411 numbers, myline numbers .rank sys,
yppt, outplay, wp, lowest 411 sys play, comp, DPR, and a few more...my 1st step is to cross off the games
that will not be a play!!!! there was 3 gb vs stl.....pitt vs jax and min vs chi.....that makes only 10 games to look at.

out of them there was two 411 plays that will be a play(take until Tuesday night to get those plays)....now there is only 8 games

I guess you could say I spend 1 hour on each game....looking at all the views I have and than and only than I pick the side with the
most edge.

now

I have 8 sides of the game that I like...the key is to weed them down to the best of the best.

now I do all the over and under...and by wed/day night I place all my plays between over 10 acct I have...so I can get the best line!!

spending all day Thursday doing write-ups and getting them ready to go live for the players that follow....the day I like the most is
on Friday night...kick back after a busy week.....I also have a business in painting and right now I have a big job going on. So my time is full.

Saturday I have fun with the wife not looking at CFB until late at night and or Sunday morning. On Sunday its all NFL from 9 am to 11 pm

I live it...I love it.....its in my blood

so that song means alot to me


more to come

Ace
 

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ace, is it possible to send the amount bet per game on wednesday instead of thursday to your paid subscribers?
 

EX BOOKIE
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ace, is it possible to send the amount bet per game on wednesday instead of thursday to your paid subscribers?

Can't do that...docsports would not like it and therx promo would not like it...ITS HARD TO GET THE SAME LINE WHEN I HAVE OVER 10 acct to pick from....But not once this year would the points matter in any on the game if you were to see them on wednesday
 

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over and under sheet for CFB match 3
record 4-2
138 n.ill under 69
176 vanb under 41
 

EX BOOKIE
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now that all plays are in and the ones that wanted to see the plays early have ....never to early to look at next weeks lines


CAR-2 VS WAS
CLE-3 VS SEA
DET-6 VS ATL
MIA-2.5 VS DEN
NYJ-2.5 VS SD
TB PK VS CHI
TENN-3 VS HOU
PIT-3.5 VS ARZ
OAK-5.5 VS KC
GB-6.5 VS MIN
NO-14 VS IND
BAL-9.5 VS JAX
DAL-10 VS STL

THE LINES WILL GO UP OR DOWN A LITTLE BASE ON WHAT HAPPEN IN WEEK 6

ENJOY

ACE
 

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Any thoughts on the Green Bay / St Louis game? I can get St Louis +15

I feel as the line should be around 10. My thinking is the Rams off a bye put a few missing pieces together and keep this game closer then A three score difference.

Thanks in advance.
 

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Any thoughts on the Green Bay / St Louis game? I can get St Louis +15

I feel as the line should be around 10. My thinking is the Rams off a bye put a few missing pieces together and keep this game closer then A three score difference.

Thanks in advance.
.

My line say the game should be -9......411 numbers point to gb winning by 21..... This game for me has a very small edge to stl...I would pass
 

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.

My line say the game should be -9......411 numbers point to gb winning by 21..... This game for me has a very small edge to stl...I would pass

Thank you for the feedback! Hope you crush in the Hilton this week.
 

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Just 2 plays this week matching all 3, are you playing any other college totals? Thanks for all the hard work! BOL
 

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Just 2 plays this week matching all 3, are you playing any other college totals? Thanks for all the hard work! BOL

to support the system I always bet the match 3 plays....but those are it this week in CFB
 

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NFL.gif


NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

My, we are stubborn.

When it comes to things we believe about the NFL, we stick to the script. After all, we wrote the script, and we know our stuff. We’ll tweak it if we have to.
What we really should do is burn it.

Of course I’m talking about the Eagles, the same Eagles who added six Pro Bowlers in the offseason, became Super Bowl co-favorites, and laid points no matter how badly they performed -- or whom they were playing.

Hand the defense to a buddy who hadn’t coached defense since the 1980s? No problem.

Handle the ball like a hot potato? No worries. Treat run defense as an afterthought? It’s all good.

With nearly one-third of the season done, however, reality is overtaking the hype.

The mistake-prone Eagles, who drew the cash again as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, might not be favored Sunday for the first time. Caesars Palace opened their Week 6 game at Washington as a Pick-em. Other books list the ‘Skins as 1-point favorites.

Philly is 0-4 straight up and against the spread since beating hapless St. Louis.

“This is a team whose line value has been inflated because of that perception [that it is super-talented],” Todd Fuhrman, Caesar’s race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “What we’ve seen the last few weeks doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Turnovers continue to mount, and they just can’t stop the run.”

So why not make them a field-goal dog against a 3-1 home team coming off a bye?

“They’re still a public team, so you can’t adjust the line too much,” Fuhrman said. “And this is essentially their last stand.”

The Eagles remind Fuhrman of last year’s Miami Heat, who were way overvalued at the start of the season.

“The difference is the Heat had 82 games to get things right,” Fuhrman said. “In the NFL a slow start seals your fate.”

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky said Philly remains a “difficult assessment.”

“For all their faults, the Eagles are +38 in first downs and +468 in yards over their opponents, among the best in each category,” he told ***********. “So the bettors can see their potential, and will likely continue to look to them to find it. All the while there were serious mental mistakes Sunday that had nothing to do with bad bounces, and indicate that their poor start may be getting in their heads. They may not have the maturity to stay the course.”

The Las Vegas-based Sports Club recommended the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites. Founder Pete Korner had Washington as a 1-point favorite, but his fellow oddsmakers all had Philly.

“People do bet ‘em – that’s why we recommended them as the favorite,” Korner told ***********. “Something is not clicking there, but the perception is still that they’re very good and they’re going to break out in a big way. They have a lot of talent and they still attract money.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14.5, 48), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

The Rams could get even more points by kickoff. They’re so feeble offensively (11.5 ppg), thanks to injuries and “boy genius” coordinator Josh McDaniels.

“The focus has gotta always be on playing our best in November and December,” McDaniels curiously told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It’s still October last time we checked.

Beat writer Jim Thomas noted the Rams sometimes struggle “just to get lined up right and get the ball snapped.”

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Washington (-1, 48)

The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in division games since the start of last season. Washington made less splashier offseason additions – G Chris Chester, DLs Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, DBs Josh Wilson and O.J. Atogwe -- but they’re paying off.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Dallas at New England (-7, 54)

These teams haven’t played since 2007, when they combined for 75 points in a 48-27 Pats win.

New England has scored at least 30 points in 13 straight regular-season games, posting an 11-2 O/U mark. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a 15-2 O/U tear dating to last year.

You won’t see a worse matchup of secondaries all season.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7, 39.5), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13, 40.5)

All four of these teams put up at least 20 points Sunday.

Curtis Painter has great chemistry with Pierre Garcon, and rookie A.J. Green is showing why he was the first wideout drafted.

Under coach Mike Tomlin, the over is 16-10-1 in Pittsburgh’s division games.

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 6

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Sunday, October 16

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ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-116 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 143-104 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 0) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 0-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (1 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/16/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (1 - 4) at CHICAGO (2 - 3) - 10/16/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 17

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MIAMI (0 - 4) at NY JETS (2 - 3) - 10/17/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 6

Sunday, 10/16/2011

ST LOUIS at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET

ST LOUIS: 2-13 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play last game
GREEN BAY: 9-1 ATS off 3 straight wins

JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 5-14 ATS off ATS loss
PITTSBURGH: 19-8 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over in conference road games
WASHINGTON: 6-12 ATS at home vs. Philadelphia

SAN FRANCISCO at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-28 ATS Away off win by 14+
DETROIT: n/a

CAROLINA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS if 50+ pts scored last game
ATLANTA: 14-29 ATS in 2nd of BB home games

INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 7-0 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
CINCINNATI: 0-9 ATS as home favorite

BUFFALO at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 1-4 ATS vs. NY Giants
NY GIANTS: 0-7 ATS if allowing 400+ yds last game

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE, 4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 15-31 ATS Away off home game
BALTIMORE: 18-7 ATS at home after scoring 30+

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 19-8 Over Away off BB Home games
OAKLAND: 13-27 ATS off SU dog win

DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 12-1 Over after 1st month of season
NEW ENGLAND: 18-4 Over in all games

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Under off 2 straight road wins
TAMPA BAY: 0-8 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 8-2 Over in wks 5 through 9
CHICAGO: n/a


Monday, 10/17/2011

MIAMI at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET
ESPN
MIAMI: 11-24 ATS vs. Jets
NY JETS: 14-5 Over vs. conference

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 16

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. GREEN BAY
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CINCINNATI
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DETROIT
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY GIANTS
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. OAKLAND
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ENGLAND
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New England's last 16 games

8:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota


Monday, October 17

8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 6-16-3 ATS in their last 25 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
NY Jets are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Miami


NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again

Oddsmakers set the highest NFL totals we’ve ever seen last week, and guess what? Nine of 13 games still went over.

So now they’ve shattered another record. Based on *********** data, this week’s average total is a whopping 46.4.

You can’t blame oddsmakers. They’ve got to do something to slow down the over train that’s cashing at a 63.2 percent clip (48-28-1).

Week 6’s highest total, Cowboys-Pats, opened at 54 and is already 55 at many books. The teams have combined to post 33-8 O/U mark (80.5 percent) since the start of last season.

“It’s getting to the point where you wonder how high you can make it,” Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace race and sportsbook supervisor, told ***********. “Even when we set numbers in the 50s, they’re going over.”

One play in the Jets-Patriots game said it all.

Darrelle Revis and Patriots wideout Deion Branch got their feet tangled late in the first half. Officials flagged Revis for illegal contact. It was a highly questionable call, and it went against the best corner in the game.

In the NFL, offense gets the benefit of the doubt.

Revis wasn’t alone. Refs flagged three other Jets’ defensive backs for illegal contact or pass interference Sunday.

“All those flags just keep extending drives,” Fuhrman said. “How is a defense supposed to stop a high-profile passing attack?”

Especially when stars like Brian Urlacher are flagged for phantom helmet-to-helmet hits (see: Monday night at Detroit). Trying to protect players, the league has boosted scoring even more.

Fuhrman acknowledges that the totals haven’t risen quickly enough.

“There’s just a perception out there that there’s going to be a regression to the mean, that defenses are going to catch up,” he said.

Las Vegas handicapper and line consultant David Malinsky summed up the linesmakers’ quandary.

“The oddsmakers continue to set higher totals each week, but still not enough,” he said. “They want to make sure their lines are simply not out of the ballpark, and that has not been the case: Overs cashed at a 9-2 rate going into the Sunday night game, but of those 11, six finished within a TD of the projection. So they are not too far off, but will have to continue to move them higher.

“Right now we see such hesitancy from the defenses that the notion that they will adjust and get the numbers more back towards normal may be an erroneous hypothesis,” Malinsky added. “Guys who spent their careers playing a certain way just are not adjusting well to the reduced limits on contact.”

Emboldened receivers are averaging 140 yards after contact per game, 25 more than in 2010, according to advancednflstats.com. That’s an increase of 22 percent.

Teamrankings.com has a database that goes back to 1985. The site said Week 5’s average total of 45.3 was the highest ever -- just above the 45.1 average for Week 9 of 2009, and the 45.0 average for Week 3 of 1985.

Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner said bettors “are playing the way they should be, and they’re winning,” noting the overs have helped many bettors cash parlays and teasers.

But he also added: “We just can’t go from the numbers we’ve had and raise ‘em 10 points. That’s not going to create two-way action. We’re trying to find an area that’s in the middle.”

Even after the Sunday night and Monday night games stayed under, the over is 8-3-1 in prime-time games.

No team epitomizes the over trend more than Buffalo. All five Bills’ games have gone over, and by an average of 11.2 points.

Perhaps that’s why the Bills-Giants game, which opened at 49.5, is already at 50.5 or 51 depending on the book.

All five of Buffalo’s second halves also have gone over.

Maybe in December, brutal cold and swirling winds will do what NFL defenses have not been able to do so far.

HALFTIME BETTING

Other strong second-half trends are emerging.

Jacksonville has not covered any second half this season. Sunday, the Jaguars lost the second half 17-7 as a 3-point home dog to Cincy. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in the second half.

The Lions - who still have not lost a game ATS since Thanksgiving 2010, including preseason - are 5-0 ATS in second-half action. They outscored the Bears 17-3 as 6-point favorites.

Minnesota snapped its 0-4 ATS skid in second-half action on Sunday. The Vikes, getting three points, lost the second half 7-6 to Arizona after building a 28-3 lead.
 

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Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NFL Live Odds

Carolina at Atlanta -5.5 ---> -3.5


On one hand you have the Carolina Panthers, who are 1-4 straight up, but 4-1 against the spread. On the other, you have the Atlanta Falcons, who are 2-3 outright, but just 1-4 against the spread.

“Atlanta has underachieved all year and bettors appear to believe there's no reason to think they bounce back from last week's meltdown,” Fuhrman says. “Julio Jones is expected to miss and you can't fault bettors for wanting to ride Cam "The Cover" Newton until his magic stops.”

Philadelphia at Washington -1 ---> +1.5

Despite all the controversy swirling around in Philly, it doesn’t look like Eagles supporters are ready to jump ship. This is Philadelphia’s last game before its bye, so it’ll be a long two weeks unless Andy Reid’s bunch comes away with a win.

“Shanahan has been very good off bye weeks during his career but he faces an Eagles team Sunday with their back's against the wall,” says Fuhrman. “The public thinks Philadelphia will rise up and salvage their season but do you really want to pay to find out? The way they're betting the game makes me believe the public thinks the Eagles aren't dead yet.”

Houston at Baltimore -6 ---> -9

Baltimore will be looking to make a statement off its bye. The Ravens went into their bye week after hammering the Jets and catch a Houston club that will be without two of its top two players – wideout Andre Johnson and linebacker Mario Williams.

“Houston struggled mightily last week against Oakland and that's the last thing the public remembers,” Fuhrman says. “Andre Johnson will be out for a second straight game and his absence was apparent last week when Schaub struggled to find his playmakers late. As this line continues to spiral I fully expect there to be an interest from bettors in grabbing the underdog.”

Miami at New York Jets O/U 42 ---> 43.5

This one’s a little tricky to figure out. Each of New York’s last three games have played over the total while Miami has played under the number in three straight. The Jets return home after dropping all three of those games on the road – at Oakland, Baltimore and New England.

Totals are up across the board and this was one of the lower numbers at the open.

NCF Live Odds

Miami (Ohio) at Kent St. +6 ---> +3.5


Neither of these teams have done much of anything this season with just a single win and one cover apiece. The RedHawks are coming off a 35-28 win over Navy as a 2-point underdog, while the Golden Flashes dropped a 40-10 decision as a 14.5-point underdog against Northern Illinois.

Louisville at Cincinnati -14 ---> -16.5

The Bearcats head into this one at 4-1 against the spread following their bye. Before their off week, they blanked Miami (Ohio) 27-0. Meanwhile, Louisville has dropped three of its last four straight up. The favorite has covered in 11 of the last 14 meetings between the two clubs.

“Louisville has struggled offensively all season long and matched up with a high octane offense in Cincinnati could spell trouble,” says Fuhrman. “Zach Collaros is the most underrated QB in the conference but this will be one of the first real defensive tests he's faced this year. I expect there to be buyback in the market every time the line ticks past 17.”

Michigan at Michigan State -3 ---> -1.5

This one’s pretty obvious.

“Denard, Denard, Denard,” Fuhrman says about Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. “The public has no interest fading this Heisman hopeful who has single-handedly been the catalyst to Michigan's fast start. However, this will be the stiffest test defensively for their offense and I think MSU can dominate the trenches. The public will back Michigan here but the question remains: When will the money from the professionals come in on Sparty if the price keeps dropping?”
 

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Six weeks ago, the Eagles were being heralded as Super Bowl contenders. Now, not so much. No one roars quite like the Lions at this point – except perhaps the unbeaten and reigning Super Bowl champion Packers. On to Week 6 of the NFL poolies’ cheat sheet:

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3)

Why Bills cover: Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. the Lions of the AFC – except for that one loss, of course – and they just dumped Eagles. New York, meanwhile, just lost at home as a double-digit favorite to meager Seahawks. Buffalo 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as road underdog; Giants 4-10 ATS last 14 as home chalk.

Why Giants cover: Eager to make amends to home fans who witnessed embarrassing loss to Seattle. New York rises up at betting window in October, with 22-8-1 ATS mark last 30 in month of Halloween.

Total (50): Loads of over trends for both teams, including 6-0 overall for Bills, 5-1 on highway for Buffalo and 5-1-1 for the G-Men at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5)

Why Jaguars cover: They’ve had the best of this AFC rivalry, going 10-4 ATS last 14 overall, and underdog has cashed last seven clashes. Pittsburgh in 0-4 ATS rut coming off SU win.

Why Steelers cover: Jags possess one of most pathetic offenses in league, averaging paltry 11.8 ppg. Jacksonville rookie QB Blaine Gabbert vs. Pittsburgh veteran and proven star Ben Roethlisberger is no contest. Steelers have beaten oddsmakers last five at home.

Total (40.5): Under 4-1 this year for Jags, but Pittsburgh on over stretches of 7-2 overall, 7-0 after spread-cover and 7-1 after SU win.

St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-14.5)

Why Rams cover: Not much to state in their favor, but Green Bay 6-16-2 ATS in last 24 starts as chalk of more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: St. Louis scores even less than the Jaguars, at league-worst 11.5 ppg, while the Pack racks up a league-leading 34.6 ppg. Aaron Rodgers & Co. 7-1 ATS last eight at Lambeau.

Total (47.5): Over 5-1 last six Rams-Packers affairs, and total has gone high in seven of Green Bay’s last eight at home. Still, under 7-1 in St. Louis’ last eight vs. winning teams.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins

Why Eagles cover: Absolutely desperate for win after four consecutive SU and ATS losses, dropping to 1-4 in both categories this season. If Super Bowl pick of many expects to make run, it needs to start here. Road team has cashed four straight in this rivalry.

Why Redskins cover: Well-rested coming off bye week and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in last eight starts overall. Philly has already committed league-worst 15 turnovers and has minus-10 turnover differential.

Total (47.5): Over 16-5 in Eagles’ last 21 on highway, but under has been play in five of last six for Redskins.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Why Colts cover: QB Curtis Painter has proven he can lead team to points the past couple weeks. And Bengals don’t handle favorite’s role well, with 6-21 ATS mark last 27 as chalk.

Why Bengals cover: Absence of Colts superstar QB Peyton Manning magnified more and more each week, with Indy still winless. Cincy on ATS upswings of 7-1 overall and 7-0 inside AFC.

Total (40.5): Both these teams have played to over lately, with total going high in four straight overall for Indy, seven of eight on highway for Colts and four of five overall for Cincy.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4)

Why 49ers cover: They haven’t done bettors wrong yet, going 4-0-1 ATS this season. And QB Alex Smith looks like he might finally be getting it, six years into his career. He’s got a 7-1 TD-to-INT differential so far this season.

Why Lions cover: Alex Smith won’t be as effective when he’s getting tossed around by dominant Detroit defensive line all afternoon. Lions on fire, with nine consecutive SU wins and 9-0-1 ATS streak.

Total (46.5): These two teams are among league’s best in scoring, with Detroit fourth at 31.8 ppg and San Fran seventh at 28.4. Total went high in nine of Lions’ last 12 at home, and over 6-1 in Niners’ last seven overall.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Why Panthers cover: Cam Newton & Co. not winning games (1-4 SU), but they are paying off at betting window (4-1 ATS).

Why Falcons cover: Can’t afford to dump two in row at home, coming off SU and ATS setback to Super Bowl champion Packers. And numbers in this rivalry point to Atlanta, which is 10-3-2 ATS in last 15 home tilts with Carolina.

Total (50.5): Over on runs of 11-4-2 overall for Atlanta and 8-1-2 with Carolina a road pup.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

Why Texans cover: That’s a lot of points to be getting for offense featuring QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster – even if stud wideout Andre Johnson isn’t available.

Why Ravens cover: When they win, they win big. In their four victories this year, average margin a whopping 22.3 points. And Texans without star LB Mario Williams for rest of year. Houston 1-5 ATS last six as road ‘dog.

Total (45): Total has gone high five straight for Baltimore and five straight with Houston as a road pup.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Why Browns cover: Oakland not comfortable as home chalk, going 2-12 ATS last 14 in that role.

Why Raiders cover: Riding emotion for first home game since death of owner Al Davis, and coming off road upset of Texans just a day after Davis’ passing. Oakland 5-1 ATS last six; Cleveland 1-6-1 ATS last eight.

Total (44.5): Raiders cleared total in five of last six at home.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-7)

Why Cowboys cover: Coming off bye week, so should be rested and focused for one of Week 6’s marquee games. Dallas thriving as underdog, cashing six straight times in that spot.

Why Patriots cover: At 4-1 SU and ATS this season, all four wins have come by minimum of nine points, with three double-digit victories. And Bill Belichick’s troops have faced four straight stout foes – Chargers, Bills, Raiders and Jets – so they are battle-tested.

Total (55): That’s a big number, but high-octane Pats offense always seems up to scoring boatload of points. Over 20-6 in New England’s last 26 overall and 17-4 in Patriots’ last 21 laying points. Over has also been play in seven of Pokes’ last eight roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees-led offense has no trouble scoring, racking up 31.4 ppg (fifth). On flip side, Bucs netting just 17.4 ppg (27th). Plus, road team in this NFC South rivalry has beaten number in 13 of last 16 clashes.

Why Buccaneers cover: New Orleans not at its best within division (4-10 ATS last 14) nor on road (2-6 ATS last eight).

Total (49.5): Under has hit five straight times in this rivalry.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Why Vikings cover: Got their first win last week, finally realizing that RB Adrian Peterson (122 yards, 3 TDs) is a horse, and they need to ride him. In fact, Peterson has averaged 112 yards (5.0 ypc) in seven contests vs. Chicago. Bears have dropped four straight ATS.

Why Bears cover: Vikings are on many ATS streaks, and none of them good, including 4-10 in roadies, 2-9-1 catching points and 1-7 in Chicago.

Total (41.5): Under has cashed in Vikes’ last six road contests.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: Miami has pulled off SU and ATS victories in last three road games against Jets, all from underdog role. Coming off bye week and 0-4 start, Fish should be hungry for win, or short of that, a spread-cover. Over-hyped New York just 1-5 ATS last six games.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s troops have lost three straight by average of 12 ppg. That should have them desperate to stop looking like awful team and more like one that reached last two AFC title games. Miami hasn’t covered since last season, going 0-6-1 ATS in past seven starts.

Total (43.5): Miami on 8-2 under run on road, but over for Jets on surges of 22-7 overall and 7-1 inside AFC East.
 

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Ace,

Do you still post the "What the Pro's are thinking" commentary...I haven't seen it the last few weeks. If not, can you please tell me where I can access it?
Thanks
 

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Ace,

Do you still post the "What the Pro's are thinking" commentary...I haven't seen it the last few weeks. If not, can you please tell me where I can access it?
Thanks


he not working on the site any more...he got a better job and he stop doing it.... still checking every week :(
 

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:( is right! It was soooo entertaining and informative as well.

BTW, do you have an opinion on the Bernard Hopkins VS Chad Dawson fight tonight?

thanks
 

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today 7 plays

2- 411 plays

2 fav
4 dogs
1 total

if there is a 411 in the early game it will be posted 5 min's before kick off

there will not be a monday night game or a sunday night game


best to all this weekend

Ace



ps just got some bad news....week 7 thread will be diff////

Alan
 

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